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The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earthquakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.
The influence of major Quaternary climatic changes on growth and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and associated erosional impact on the landscapes, is virtually unknown beyond the last deglaciation. Here we quantify exposure and denudation histories in west Greenland by applying a novel Markov-Chain Monte Carlo modelling approach to all available paired cosmogenic Be-10-Al-26 bedrock data from Greenland. We find that long-term denudation rates in west Greenland range from >50 m Myr(-1) in low-lying areas to similar to 2 m Myr(-1) at high elevations, hereby quantifying systematic variations in denudation rate among different glacial landforms caused by variations in ice thickness across the landscape. We furthermore show that the present day ice-free areas only were ice covered ca. 45% of the past 1 million years, and even less at high-elevation sites, implying that the Greenland Ice Sheet for much of the time was of similar size or even smaller than today.
In this paper, an underground experiment at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) is described. Main goal is optimizing geothermal heat exchange in crystalline rock mass at depth by multistage hydraulic fracturing with minimal impact on the environment, that is, seismic events. For this, three arrays with acoustic emission, microseismicity and electromagnetic sensors are installed mapping hydraulic fracture initiation and growth. Fractures are driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization). After a brief review of hydraulic fracture operations in crystalline rock mass at mine scale, the site geology and the stress conditions at Aspo HRL are described. Then, the continuous, single-flow rate and alternative, multiple-flow rate fracture breakdown tests in a horizontal borehole at depth level 410 m are described together with the monitoring networks and sensitivity. Monitoring results include the primary catalogue of acoustic emission hypocentres obtained from four hydraulic fractures with the in situ trigger and localizing network. The continuous versus alternative water injection schemes are discussed in terms of the fracture breakdown pressure, the fracture pattern from impression packer result and the monitoring at the arrays. An example of multistage hydraulic fracturing with several phases of opening and closing of fracture walls is evaluated using data from acoustic emissions, seismic broad-band recordings and electromagnetic signal response. Based on our limited amount of in situ tests (six) and evaluation of three tests in Avro granodiorite, in the multiple-flow rate test with progressively increasing target pressure, the acoustic emission activity starts at a later stage in the fracturing process compared to the conventional fracturing case with continuous water injection. In tendency, also the total number and magnitude of acoustic events are found to be smaller in the progressive treatment with frequent phases of depressurization.
The 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks weakened mountain slopes in Nepal. Co- and postseismic landsliding and the formation of landslide-dammed lakes along steeply dissected valleys were widespread, among them a landslide that dammed the Kali Gandaki River. Overtopping of the landslide dam resulted in a flash flood downstream, though casualties were prevented because of timely evacuation of low-lying areas. We hindcast the flood using the BREACH physically based dam-break model for upstream hydrograph generation, and compared the resulting maximum flow rate with those resulting from various empirical formulas and a simplified hydrograph based on published observations. Subsequent modeling of downstream flood propagation was compromised by a coarse-resolution digital elevation model with several artifacts. Thus, we used a digital-elevation-model preprocessing technique that combined carving and smoothing to derive topographic data. We then applied the 1-dimensional HEC-RAS model for downstream flood routing, and compared it to the 2-dimensional Delft-FLOW model. Simulations were validated using rectified frames of a video recorded by a resident during the flood in the village of Beni, allowing estimation of maximum flow depth and speed. Results show that hydrological smoothing is necessary when using coarse topographic data (such as SRTM or ASTER), as using raw topography underestimates flow depth and speed and overestimates flood wave arrival lag time. Results also show that the 2-dimensional model produces more accurate results than the 1-dimensional model but the 1-dimensional model generates a more conservative result and can be run in a much shorter time. Therefore, a 2-dimensional model is recommended for hazard assessment and planning, whereas a 1-dimensional model would facilitate real-time warning declaration.
The changing climate in the Arctic has a profound impact on permafrost coasts, which are subject to intensified thermokarst formation and erosion. Consequently, terrestrial organic matter (OM) is mobilized and transported into the nearshore zone. Yet, little is known about the fate of mobilized OM before and after entering the ocean. In this study we investigated a retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) on Qikiqtaruk - Herschel Island (Yukon coast, Canada). The RTS was classified into an undisturbed, a disturbed (thermokarst-affected) and a nearshore zone and sampled systematically along transects. Samples were analyzed for total and dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen (TOC, DOC, TN, DN), stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13-TOC, delta C-13-DOC), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), which were compared between the zones. C/N-ratios, delta C-13 signatures, and ammonium (NH4-N) concentrations were used as indicators for OM degradation along with biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty adds, n-alcohols). Our results show that OM significantly decreases after disturbance with a TOC and DOC loss of 77 and 55% and a TN and DN loss of 53 and 48%, respectively. C/N-ratios decrease significantly, whereas NH4-N concentrations slightly increase in freshly thawed material. In the nearshore zone, OM contents are comparable to the disturbed zone. We suggest that the strong decrease in OM is caused by initial dilution with melted massive ice and immediate offshore transport via the thaw stream. In the mudpool and thaw stream, OM is subject to degradation, whereas in the slump floor the nitrogen decrease is caused by recolonizing vegetation. Within the nearshore zone of the ocean, heavier portions of OM are directly buried in marine sediments close to shore. We conclude that RTS have profound impacts on coastal environments in the Arctic. They mobilize nutrients from permafrost, substantially decrease OM contents and provide fresh water and nutrients at a point source.
Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10km(2)) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude-frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Langentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process-based simulation. Rainfall-runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM-RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI-REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP-RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature-controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high-altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change-induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation-related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071-2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried-out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%-11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.
In 2010, project CoCoCo (incipient COntinent-COntinent COllision) recorded a 650 km long amphibian N-S wide-angle seismic profile, extending from the Anatolian plateau across southern Turkey and Cyprus to just south of the Eratosthenes Seamount (ESM). The aim of the project is to reveal the impact of the transition from subduction to continent-continent collision of Africa with Anatolia. Arrival picking, finite-differences ray-tracing and inversion of the offshore and on-offshore data produced a tomographic model across southern Cyprus, the accretionary wedge and the ESM. The main features of this model are (1) crustal P-velocities predominantly lower than 6.5 km/s beneath the ESM, (2) crustal thickness between 28 and 37 km, (3) an upper crustal reflection at 5 km depth beneath the ESM, (4) the likely presence of oceanic crust south of the ESM and a transform margin north of it and (5) a 12 km thick ophiolite sequence on Cyprus. Land shots on Turkey, also recorded on Cyprus, gravity data and geological and previous seismic investigations allow to derive a layered velocity model beneath Anatolia and the northern part of Cyprus. The main features of this model are (1) Moho depths of 38–45 km beneath the Anatolian plateau, (2) an upper and lower crust with large lateral changes in velocity and thickness, (3) a north-dipping subducting plate below Cyprus with a steepening of the dip-angle of the plate at about 45 km depth. Thus, the wide-angle seismic and gravity data provide detailed insights into the 2-D geometry and velocity structures associated with the Cyprus Arc collision zone. Finally, integrated analysis of the geophysics and geology allows a comprehensive interpretation of the crustal structure related to the collision process.
Mountain channels can be strongly coupled with adjacent hillslopes, exchanging both mass and energy. However, hypotheses of the underlying cause and effect relations are based on indirect observations that do not resolve the mechanics of channel-hillslope coupling at the process scale. Here we present direct observational data of a coupled channel-hillslope system in the catchment area of the Erlenbach, a mountain stream in Switzerland. A slow-moving landslide flanking this alpine stream failed after a flood had eroded an alluvial step in the channel at its base, representing evidence for an upsystem link in channel-hillslope coupling. Progressive accumulation of landslide debris in the channel resulted in a renewed step, stabilizing the hillslope and restoring the channel step in a downsystem link. Thus, upsystem and downsystem coupling mechanisms are joined in a negative feedback cycle. In this cycle, debuttressing and rebuttressing due to channel bed erosion and alluviation are the dominant controls on hillslope stability. Based on an order of magnitude estimate it is plausible that the observed feedback mechanism is a relevant process in the production of coarse (>2 mm) sediment in the Erlenbach.
Platinum electrodes were implanted into the xylem of a lime tree (Tilia cordata) stem and solar- induced electrochemical potential differences of up to 120 mV were measured during the vegetative period and up to 30 mV in winter. The time dependent curves were found to be delayed with respect to solar radiation, sap flow activity, temperature and vapor pressure deficit. A general equation for the potential difference was derived and simplified by analyzing the effect of temperature and tensile strength. The potential determining influence of oxygen concentration on the respective location of the platinum electrode was identified as the principal phenomenon measured. A systematic analysis and investigation of the observed periodic oxygen concentration signals promises new information on sap flow, oxygen diffusion through tree tissues and on oxygen consumption related to the energy turnover in tree tissues.
Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.
This article discusses the results of a taxonomic and ecological investigation of diatoms from polygonal ponds and Quaternary permafrost deposits of Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) and the reconstruction of climatic changes on the Island during late Pleistocene/Holocene transition using fossil diatom assemblages from the permafrost deposits. The taxonomic list of diatoms includes 159 diatom species. The main ecological factors that determine the distribution of diatoms in the investigated data set are mean July air temperature, рН, electrical conductivity, water depth, and concentrations of Si4+ and Al3+. An increase in water depth and stable lacustrine conditions in the Lateglacial–Holocene in the ancient thermokarst lake relate to Lateglacial warming before 11860 ± 160 years BP and during the early Holocene between 11210 ± 160 and 7095 ± 60 years BP.
Entlang der Küstenniederung des Naturschutzgebietes „Hütelmoor und Heiligensee“, ca. 6 km nordöstlich von Rostock-Warnemünde gelegen, wird seit dem Jahr 2000 die Küstendüne nicht mehr instand gehalten. Im Rahmen der Renaturierung des Gebietes werden so grundsätzlich wieder Überflutungen bei Ostseehochwassern zugelassen, was bisher jedoch noch nicht eingetreten ist. Am 4./5. Januar 2017 ereignete sich ein Sturmhochwasser der Ostsee, mit einem Scheitelwasserstand in Warnemünde, der sich zwischen dem 10- und 20-jährlichen Hochwasserstand einordnet. Dennoch kam es bei diesem Ereignis nicht zum Dünendurchbruch und zur seeseitigen Überflutung, wohl aber zum binnenseitigen Einstrom von Salz- bzw. Brackwasser. Dieser erfolgte über den Graben, durch den das Gebiet normalerweise über die Warnow in die Ostsee entwässert. Durch das Einströmen über die Sohlschwelle, sonst Auslass des Gebietes, stiegen die Wasserstände und Salzkonzentrationen in der südwestlichen Hälfte der Niederung an. Mit zunehmender Entfernung zur Sohlschwelle waren diese Auswirkungen jedoch geringer spürbar. Dies gilt wegen der Retentionswirkung der Niederung mehr für den Wasserstand als für die Salzkonzentration. Während der Wasserstand durch den Einstau der Niederung und Überschwemmungen flächenhaft anstieg, breitete sich die Salzfront präferentiell in den ehemaligen Entwässerungsgräben, die trotz des Einstaus nach wie vor hydraulisch aktiv sind, eher linienhaft aus. Diese Interpretation beruht auf Messergebnissen von Wasserstand, elektrischer Leitfähigkeit und Wassertemperatur.
The Himalayan thrust belt comprises three in-sequence foreland-propagating orogen-scale faults, the Main Central thrust, the Main Boundary thrust, and the Main Frontal thrust. Recently, the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system has been recognized as an additional, potentially orogen-scale shear zone in the proximal footwall of the Main Central thrust. The timing of the Munsiari, Ramgarh, and Shumar thrusts and their role in Himalayan tectonics are disputed. We present 31 new zircon (U–Th)/He ages from a profile across the central Himachal Himalaya in the Beas River area. Within a ∼40 km wide belt northeast of the Kullu–Larji–Rampur window, ages ranging from to constrain a distinct episode of rapid Pliocene to Present exhumation; north and south of this belt, zircon (U–Th)/He ages are older ( to ). We attribute the Pliocene rapid exhumation episode to basal accretion to the Himalayan thrust belt and duplex formation in the Lesser Himalayan sequence including initiation of the Munsiari thrust. Pecube thermokinematic modelling suggests exhumation rates of ∼2–3 mm/yr from 4–7 to 0 Ma above the duplex contrasting with lower (<0.3 mm/yr) middle-late Miocene exhumation rates. The Munsiari thrust terminates laterally in central Himachal Pradesh. In the NW Indian Himalaya, the Main Central thrust zone comprises the sheared basal sections of the Greater Himalayan sequence and the mylonitic ‘Bajaura nappe’ of Lesser Himalayan affinity. We correlate the Bajaura unit with the Ramgarh thrust sheet in Nepal based on similar lithologies and the middle Miocene age of deformation. The Munsiari thrust in the central Himachal Himalaya is several Myr younger than deformation in the Bajaura and Ramgarh thrust sheets. Our results illustrate the complex and segmented nature of the Munsiari–Ramgarh–Shumar thrust system.
Documenting the early tectonic and magmatic evolution of the lzu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) arc system in the Western Pacific is critical for understanding the process and cause of subduction initiation along the current convergent margin between the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates. Forearc igneous sections provide firm evidence for seafloor spreading at the time of subduction initiation (52 Ma) and production of "forearc basalt". Ocean floor drilling (International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 351) recovered basement-forming, low-Ti tholeiitic basalt crust formed shortly after subduction initiation but distal from the convergent margin (nominally reararc) of the future IBM arc (Amami Sankaku Basin: ASB). Radiometric dating of this basement gives an age range (49.3-46.8 Ma with a weighted average of 48.7 Ma) that overlaps that of basalt in the present-day IBM forearc, but up to 3.3 m.y. younger than the onset of forearc basalt activity. Similarity in age range and geochemical character between the reararc and forearc basalts implies that the ocean crust newly formed by seafloor spreading during subduction initiation extends from fore-to reararc of the present-day IBM arc. Given the age difference between the oldest forearc basalt and the ASB crust, asymmetric spreading caused by ridge migration might have taken place. This scenario for the formation of the ASB implies that the Mesozoic remnant arc terrane of the Daito Ridges comprised the overriding plate at subduction initiation. The juxtaposition of a relatively buoyant remnant arc terrane adjacent to an oceanic plate was more favourable for subduction initiation than would have been the case if both downgoing and overriding plates had been oceanic. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods.
The uplift of the Shillong Plateau, in northeast India between the Bengal floodplain and the Himalaya Mountains, has had a significant impact on regional precipitation patterns, strain partitioning, and the path of the Brahmaputra River. Today, the plateau receives the highest measured yearly rainfall in the world and is tectonically active, having hosted one of the strongest intra-plate earthquakes ever recorded. Despite the unique tectonic and climatic setting of this prominent landscape feature, its exhumation and surface uplift history are poorly constrained. We collected 14 detrital river sand and 3 bedrock samples from the southern margin of the Shillong Plateau to measure erosion rates using the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide 10Be. The calculated bedrock erosion rates range from 2.0 to 5.6 m My−1, whereas catchment average erosion rates from detrital river sands range from 48 to 214 m My−1. These rates are surprisingly low in the context of steep, tectonically active slopes and extreme rainfall. Moreover, the highest among these rates, which occur on the low-relief plateau surface, appear to have been affected by anthropogenic land-use change. To determine the onset of surface uplift, we coupled the catchment averaged erosion rates with topographic analyses of the plateau's southern margin. We interpolated an inclined, pre-incision surface from minimally eroded remnants along the valley interfluves and calculated the eroded volume of the valleys carved beneath the surface. The missing volume was then divided by the volume flux derived from the erosion rates to obtain the onset of uplift. The results of this calculation, ranging from 3.0 to 5.0 Ma for individual valleys, are in agreement with several lines of stratigraphic evidence from the Brahmaputra and Bengal basin that constrain the onset of topographic uplift, specifically the onset of flexural loading and the transgression from deltaic to marine deposition. Ultimately, our data corroborate the hypothesis that surface uplift was decoupled from the onset of rapid exhumation, which occurred several millions of years earlier.
High resolution reconstructions of the India Summer Monsoon (ISM) are essential to identify regionally different patterns of climate change and refine predictive models. We find opposing trends of hydrological proxies between northern (Sahiya cave stalagmite) and central India (Lonar Lake) between 100 and 1300 CE with the strongest anti-correlation between 810 and 1300 CE. The apparently contradictory data raise the question if these are related to widely different regional precipitation patterns or reflect human influence in/around the Lonar Lake. By comparing multiproxy data with historical records, we demonstrate that only the organic proxies in the Lonar Lake show evidence of anthropogenic impact. However, evaporite data (mineralogy and delta O-18) are indicative of precipitation/evaporation (P/E) into the Lonar Lake. Back-trajectories of air-mass circulation over northern and central India show that the relative contribution of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM is crucial for determining the delta O-18 of carbonate proxies only in north India, whereas central India is affected significantly by the Arabian Sea (AS) branch of the ISM. We conclude that the delta O-18 of evaporative carbonates in the Lonar Lake reflects P/E and, in the interval under consideration, is not influenced by source water changes. The opposing trend between central and northern India can be explained by (i) persistent multidecadal droughts over central India between 810 and 1300 CE that provided an effective mechanism for strengthening sub-tropical westerly winds resulting in enhancement of wintertime (non-monsoonal) rainfall over northern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and/or (ii) increased moisture influx to northern India from the depleted BoB source waters.
This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease (P < 0.001) in rice yield, pan evaporation, solar radiation, and wind speed declined significantly. Eight principal components exhibited an eigenvalue > 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.
In order to analyse the sensitivity of the equatorial ionospheric current system, i.e. the solar quiet current system and the equatorial electrojet, to solar cycle variations and to the secular variation of the geomagnetic main field, we have analysed 51 years (1935-1985) of geomagnetic observatory data from Huancayo, Peru. This period is ideal to analyse the influence of the main field strength on the amplitude of the quiet daily variation, since the main field decreases significantly from 1935 to 1985, while the distance of the magnetic equator to the observatory remains stable. To this end, we digitised some 19 years of hourly mean values of the horizontal component (H), which have not been available digitally at the World Data Centres. Then, the sensitivity of the amplitude Ali of the quiet daily variation to both solar cycle variations (in terms of sunspot numbers and solar flux F10.7) and changes of the geomagnetic main field strength (due to secular variation) was determined. We confirm an increase of Delta H for the decreasing main field in this period, as expected from physics based models (Cnossen, 2016), but with a somewhat smaller rate of 4.4% (5.8% considering one standard error) compared with 6.9% predicted by the physics based model.
In the era of the Internet of Things and Big Data modern cars have become mobile electronic systems or computers on wheels. Car sensors record a multitude of car and traffic related data as well as environmental parameters outside the vehicle. The data recorded are spatio-temporal by nature (floating car data) and can thus be classified as geodata. Their geospatial potential is, however, not fully exploited so far. In this paper, we present an approach to collect, process and visualize floating car data for traffic-and environment-related applications. It is demonstrated that cartographic visualization, in particular, is as effective means to make the enormous stocks of machine-recorded data available to human perception, exploration and analysis.
Alluvial units are important in understanding the interactions of antecedent drainage evolution with fold growth along the flanks of active orogenic belts. This is demonstrated by the Anjihai River in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland, which at present flows northward cutting sequentially through the Nananjihai anticline, the Huoerguos anticline, and the Anjihai anticline. Three episodes of alluviation designated as fans F-a, F-b, and F-c are identified for the Anjihai River. These three alluvial terrain features comprise a series of terraces, where the topographic characteristics, geomorphologic structure, and up-warped longitudinal profiles indicate continuous uplift and lateral propagation of the Halaande anticline and the Anjihai anticline over the past 50 Icy. Shortly after similar to 3.6 ka when the oldest terrace during the period of the fan Fb sedimentation was formed, significant rock uplift at the overlapping zone of the Anjihai anticline and the Halaande anticline led to the eastward deflection of the antecedent Anjihai River. A series of local terraces with elevation decreasing eastward indicate the gradual eastward migration of the channel of the Anjihai River during the period of the fan F-c sedimentation. Finally the Anjihai River occupied the previous course of the Jingou River when the latter was deflected eastward in response to rock uplift of the Anjihai anticline, presently flowing across the eastern tip of the Anjihai anticline. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Vermessung im Sonnensystem
(2017)
Die bisherigen Missionen ins Sonnensystem lieferten eine enorme Fülle an Daten in unterschiedlichen Formaten und in Form von Bildern und digitalen Messergebnissen. Die Oberflächenprozesse der planetaren Körper, die mit Hilfe dieser Daten erforscht werden können, sind äußerst vielfältig und reichen von Einschlagskratern über Vulkanismus und Tektonik zu allen Formen der Erosion und Sedimentation. Um diese Prozesse verstehen zu können werden Verfahren angewendet, die für die Datenanalyse auf der Erde entwickelt wurden. Allerdings ist es notwendig all diese Verfahren zum Teil mit erheblichem Aufwand und unter Berücksichtigung der jeweiligen physikalischen Rahmenbedingungen anzupassen. Die Entwicklung kartographischer Verfahren zur Abstraktion der hier angesprochenen Informationen, also die Erfassung, geomorphologische Analyse und Visualisierung planetarer Oberflächen und Prozesse, hat jedoch gerade erst begonnen. Um diese Entwicklungen voranzutreiben, hat das Deutsche Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt in Kooperation mit der Universität Potsdam (Institut für Geographie, Fachgruppe Geoinformatik, Prof. Dr. Asche), im Rahmen von Dissertationen und Forschungsvorhaben, in einem ersten Schritt kartographische Analyseverfahren für den Mars und die Asteroiden Ceres und Vesta entwickelt.
Earth observation data have become an outstanding basis for analyzing environmental
aspects. The increasing availability of remote sensing data is accompanied
by an increasing user demand. Within the scope of the COOPERNICUS-initiative,
the automatic processing of remote sensing data is important for supplying value-
added-information products. The use of additional data like land-water-masks
in the context of deriving value-added information products can stabilize and
improve the product quality of information products.
The authors of this contribution would like to discuss different automated
processing algorithms which are based on land-water masks for value-added
data interpretation. These developments were supported or accompanied by Prof.
Hartmut Asche.
Das in den USA bereits weit verbreitete Predictive Policing, die vorhersagende
Polizeiarbeit, entwickelt sich seit zwei bis drei Jahren auch auf dem deutschen
Sicherheitsmarkt sehr dynamisch. Unter Nutzung und Weiterentwicklung von
Geographischen Informationssystemen sowie raumbasierter Algorithmen und
Modellierungen werden für beliebige Orte die Auftrittswahrscheinlichkeiten von
Straftaten ermittelt. In der Praxis erhält damit die Polizei ortsbezogene Hinweise
für die strategische Planung ihrer Einsätze. Für die Humangeographie und die
Geoinformatik ist Predictive Policing also ein äußerst interessantes Beobachtungsund
Betätigungsfeld, das in diesem Beitrag unter die Lupe genommen werden soll.
Dabei wird es weniger um die GIS-technischen und mathematisch-statistischen
Hintergründe des Predictive Policing gehen. Vielmehr sollen einige Gedanken
geäußert werden, weshalb sich dieses Instrument auf dem Sicherheitsmarkt etablieren
konnte und über welche Potenziale und Grenzen des Predictive Policing
von Vertreter(inne)n aus Politik, Polizei, Kriminalsoziologie und Geographie diskutiert
wird.
Statistics Canada, Canada’s national statistics agency, offers a suite of spatial
files for mapping and analysis of its various population data products. The following
article showcases possibilities and shortfalls of the existing spatial files
for mapping population data, and provides an overview of the structure of the
available boundary files from the regional to the dissemination block level. Due
to Canada’s highly dispersed population, mapping its distribution and density can
be challenging. Common mapping techniques such as the choropleth method are
suitable only for mapping spatially high resolution data such as data at the dissemination
area level. To allow for mapping of population data at less detailed levels
such as census divisions or provinces, Statistics Canada has created a so-called
ecumene boundary file which outlines the inhabited area of Canada and can be
used to more accurately visualize Canada’s population distribution and density.
Die Verwendung geographischer Namen in Karten und Atlanten ist ein in der
kartographischen Methodenlehre vernachlässigter Bereich, der aber Aufmerksamkeit
verdient, weil geographische Namen dort wichtige Funktionen erfüllen.
Sie identifizieren zwar nicht ein geographisches Objekt, erleichtern aber das
Kartenlesen, ermöglichen die Suche nach geographischen Objekten, weisen auf
Merkmale geographischer Objekte hin und lassen die kulturelle Einbettung eines
Ortes erkennen. Für Leser, denen der Name und der durch ihn bezeichnete Ort
bekannt sind, haben sie die zusätzliche Funktion von Etiketten und die Eigenschaft,
emotionale Bindungen zum Ort zu unterstützen. Es werden zudem sechs allgemeine
Grundsätze für die Verwendung von geographischen Namen in Atlanten genannt, ferner spezielle Grundsätze für die beiden Haupttypen von Atlanten, nämlich
wissenschaftliche Atlanten, die sich an ein internationales Publikum wenden, und populäre Atlanten, die v. a. ein heimisches Publikum ansprechen wollen.
Laudatio
(2017)