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Natural gas can be temporarily stored in a variety of underground facilities, such as depleted gas and oil fields, natural aquifers and caverns in salt rocks. Being extensively monitored during operations, these systems provide a favourable opportunity to investigate how pressure varies in time and space and possibly induces/triggers earthquakes on nearby faults. Elaborate and detailed numerical modelling techniques are often applied to study gas reservoirs. Here we show the possibilities and discuss the limitations of a flexible and easily formulated tool that can be straightforwardly applied to simulate temporal pore-pressure variations and study the relation with recorded microseismic events. We use the software POEL (POroELastic diffusion and deformation) which computes the poroelastic response to fluid injection/extraction in a horizontally layered poroelastic structure. We further develop its application to address the presence of vertical impermeable faults bounding the reservoir and of multiple injection/extraction sources. Exploiting available information on the reservoir geometry and physical parameters, and records of injection/extraction rates for a gas reservoir in southern Europe, we perform an extensive parametric study considering different model configurations. Comparing modelled spatiotemporal pore-pressure variations with in situ measurements, we show that the inclusion of vertical impermeable faults provides an improvement in reproducing the observations and results in pore-pressure accumulation near the faults and in a variation of the temporal pore-pressure diffusion pattern. To study the relation between gas storage activity and recorded local microseismicity, we applied different seismicity models based on the estimated porepressure distribution. This analysis helps to understand the spatial distribution of seismicity and its temporal modulation. The results show that the observed microseismicity could be partly linked to the storage activity, but the contribution of tectonic background seismicity cannot be excluded.
Predictors and prevalence of hazardous alcohol use in middle-late to late adulthood in Europe
(2022)
Objectives:
Even low to moderate levels of alcohol consumption can have detrimental health consequences, especially in older adults (OA). Although many studies report an increase in the proportion of drinkers among OA, there are regional variations. Therefore, we examined alcohol consumption and the prevalence of hazardous alcohol use (HAU) among men and women aged 50+ years in four European regions and investigated predictors of HAU.
Methods:
We analyzed data of N = 35,042 participants of the European SHARE study. We investigated differences in alcohol consumption (units last week) according to gender, age and EU-region using ANOVAs. Furthermore, logistic regression models were used to examine the effect of income, education, marital status, history of a low-quality parent-child relationship and smoking on HAU, also stratified for gender and EU-region. HAU was operationalized as binge drinking or risky drinking (<12.5 units of 10 ml alcohol/week).
Results:
Overall, past week alcohol consumption was 5.0 units (+/- 7.8), prevalence of HAU was 25.4% within our sample of European adults aged 50+ years. Male gender, younger age and living in Western Europe were linked to both higher alcohol consumption and higher risks of HAU. Income, education, smoking, a low-quality parent-child relationship, living in Northern and especially Eastern Europe were positively associated with HAU. Stratified analyses revealed differences by region and gender.
Conclusions:
HAU was highly prevalent within this European sample of OA. Alcohol consumption and determinants of HAU differed between EU-regions, hinting to a necessity of risk-stratified population-level strategies to prevent HAU and subsequent alcohol use disorders.
Urban air pollution is a substantial threat to human health. Traffic emissions remain a large contributor to air pollution in urban areas. The mobility restrictions put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic provided a large-scale real-world experiment that allows for the evaluation of changes in traffic emissions and the corresponding changes in air quality. Here we use observational data, as well as modelling, to analyse changes in nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter resulting from the COVID-19 restrictions at the height of the lockdown period in Spring of 2020. Accounting for the influence of meteorology on air quality, we found that reduction of ca. 30-50 % in traffic counts, dominated by changes in passenger cars, corresponded to reductions in median observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations of ca. 40 % (traffic and urban background locations) and a ca. 22 % increase in ozone (urban background locations) during weekdays. Lesser reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations were observed at urban background stations at weekends, and no change in ozone was observed. The modelled reductions in median nitrogen dioxide at urban background locations were smaller than the observed reductions and the change was not significant. The model results showed no significant change in ozone on weekdays or weekends. The lack of a simulated weekday/weekend effect is consistent with previous work suggesting that NOx emissions from traffic could be significantly underestimated in European cities by models. These results indicate the potential for improvements in air quality due to policies for reducing traffic, along with the scale of reductions that would be needed to result in meaningful changes in air quality if a transition to sustainable mobility is to be seriously considered. They also confirm once more the highly relevant role of traffic for air quality in urban areas.
Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time.
The Eastern Mediterranean is the most seismically active region in Europe due to the complex interactions of the Arabian, African, and Eurasian tectonic plates. Deformation is achieved by faulting in the brittle crust, distributed flow in the viscoelastic lower-crust and mantle, and Hellenic subduction, but the long-term partitioning of these mechanisms is still unknown. We exploit an extensive suite of geodetic observations to build a kinematic model connecting strike-slip deformation, extension, subduction, and shear localization across Anatolia and the Aegean Sea by mapping the distribution of slip and strain accumulation on major active geological structures. We find that tectonic escape is facilitated by a plate-boundary-like, translithospheric shear zone extending from the Gulf of Evia to the Turkish-Iranian Plateau that underlies the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. Additional deformation in Anatolia is taken up by a series of smaller-scale conjugate shear zones that reach the upper mantle, the largest of which is located beneath the East Anatolian Fault. Rapid north-south extension in the western part of the system, driven primarily by Hellenic Trench retreat, is accommodated by rotation and broadening of the North Anatolian mantle shear zone from the Sea of Marmara across the north Aegean Sea, and by a system of distributed transform faults and rifts including the rapidly extending Gulf of Corinth in central Greece and the active grabens of western Turkey. Africa-Eurasia convergence along the Hellenic Arc occurs at a median rate of 49.8mm yr(-1) in a largely trench-normal direction except near eastern Crete where variably oriented slip on the megathrust coincides with mixed-mode and strike-slip deformation in the overlying accretionary wedge near the Ptolemy-Pliny-Strabo trenches. Our kinematic model illustrates the competing roles the North Anatolian mantle shear zone, Hellenic Trench, overlying mantle wedge, and active crustal faults play in accommodating tectonic indentation, slab rollback and associated Aegean extension. Viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle dominate the surface velocity field across much of Anatolia and a clear transition to megathrust-related slab pull occurs in western Turkey, the Aegean Sea and Greece. Crustal scale faults and the Hellenic wedge contribute only a minor amount to the large-scale, regional pattern of Eastern Mediterranean interseismic surface deformation.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe
(2020)
Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.
The 3D thermal field across the Alpine orogen and its forelands and the relation to seismicity
(2020)
Temperature exerts a first order control on rock strength, principally via thermally activated creep deformation and on the distribution at depth of the brittle-ductile transition zone. The latter can be regarded as the lower bound to the seismogenic zone, thereby controlling the spatial distribution of seismicity within a lithospheric plate. As such, models of the crustal thermal field are important to understand the localisation of seismicity. Here we relate results from 3D simulations of the steady state thermal field of the Alpine orogen and its forelands to the distribution of seismicity in this seismically active area of Central Europe. The model takes into account how the crustal heterogeneity of the region effects thermal properties and is validated with a dataset of wellbore temperatures. We find that the Adriatic crust appears more mafic, through its radiogenic heat values (1.30E-06 W/m3) and maximum temperature of seismicity (600 degrees C), than the European crust (1.3-2.6E-06 W/m3 and 450 degrees C). We also show that at depths of < 10 km the thermal field is largely controlled by sedimentary blanketing or topographic effects, whilst the deeper temperature field is primarily controlled by the LAB topology and the distribution and parameterization of radiogenic heat sources within the upper crust.
Puumala virus (PUUV) causes many human infections in large parts of Europe and can lead to mild to moderate disease. The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the only reservoir of PUUV in Central Europe. A commercial PUUV rapid field test for rodents was validated for bank-vole blood samples collected in two PUUV-endemic regions in Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Wurttemberg). A comparison of the results of the rapid field test and standard ELISAs indicated a test efficacy of 93-95%, largely independent of the origin of the antigens used in the ELISA. In ELISAs, reactivity for the German PUUV strain was higher compared to the Swedish strain but not compared to the Finnish strain, which was used for the rapid field test. In conclusion, the use of the rapid field test can facilitate short-term estimation of PUUV seroprevalence in bank-vole populations in Germany and can aid in assessing human PUUV infection risk.
In 2010, project CoCoCo (incipient COntinent-COntinent COllision) recorded a 650 km long amphibian N-S wide-angle seismic profile, extending from the Anatolian plateau across southern Turkey and Cyprus to just south of the Eratosthenes Seamount (ESM). The aim of the project is to reveal the impact of the transition from subduction to continent-continent collision of Africa with Anatolia. Arrival picking, finite-differences ray-tracing and inversion of the offshore and on-offshore data produced a tomographic model across southern Cyprus, the accretionary wedge and the ESM. The main features of this model are (1) crustal P-velocities predominantly lower than 6.5 km/s beneath the ESM, (2) crustal thickness between 28 and 37 km, (3) an upper crustal reflection at 5 km depth beneath the ESM, (4) the likely presence of oceanic crust south of the ESM and a transform margin north of it and (5) a 12 km thick ophiolite sequence on Cyprus. Land shots on Turkey, also recorded on Cyprus, gravity data and geological and previous seismic investigations allow to derive a layered velocity model beneath Anatolia and the northern part of Cyprus. The main features of this model are (1) Moho depths of 38–45 km beneath the Anatolian plateau, (2) an upper and lower crust with large lateral changes in velocity and thickness, (3) a north-dipping subducting plate below Cyprus with a steepening of the dip-angle of the plate at about 45 km depth. Thus, the wide-angle seismic and gravity data provide detailed insights into the 2-D geometry and velocity structures associated with the Cyprus Arc collision zone. Finally, integrated analysis of the geophysics and geology allows a comprehensive interpretation of the crustal structure related to the collision process.
Under what conditions do young precarious workers join unions? Based on case studies from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the authors identify targeted campaigns, coalition building, membership activism, and training activities as innovative organizing approaches. In addition to traditional issues such as wages and training quality, these approaches also featured issues specific to precarious workers, including skills training, demands for minimum working hours, and specific support in insecure employment situations. Organizing success is influenced by bargaining structures, occupational identity, labor market conditions, and support by union leaders and members. Innovative organizing tends to happen when unions combine new approaches with existing structures.
Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 57-27 ka) was characterised by numerous rapid climate oscillations (i.e., Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O-) events), which are reflected in various climate archives. So far, MIS 3 speleothem records from central Europe have mainly been restricted to caves located beneath temperate Alpine glaciers or close to the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, MIS 3 seemed to be too cold and dry to enable speleothem growth north of the Alps in central Europe. Here we present a new speleothem record from Bunker Cave, Germany, which shows two distinct growth phases from 52.0 (+0.8, -0.5) to 50.9 (+0.6, -1.3) ka and 473 (+1.0, -0.6) to 42.8 (+/- 0.9) ka, rejecting this hypothesis. These two growth phases potentially correspond to the two warmest and most humid phases in central Europe during MIS 3, which is confirmed by pollen data from the nearby Eifel. The hiatus separating the two phases is associated with Heinrich stadial 5 (HS 5), although the growth stop precedes the onset of HS 5. The first growth phase is characterised by a fast growth rate, and Mg concentrations and Sr isotope data suggest high infiltration and the presence of soil cover above the cave. The second growth phase was characterised by drier, but still favourable conditions for speleothem growth. During this phase, the delta C-13 values show a significant decrease associated with D/O-event 12. The timing of this shift is in agreement with other MIS 3 speleothem data from Europe and Greenland ice core data. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Species of rust fungi of the genus Milesina (Pucciiastraceae, Pucciniales) are distributed mainly in northern temperate regions. They host-alternate between needles of fir (Abies spp.) and fronds of ferns (species of Polypodiales). Milesina species are distinguished based on host taxonomy and urediniospore morphology. In this study, 12 species of Milesina from Europe were revised. Specimens were examined by light and scanning electron microscopy for urediniospore morphology with a focus on visualising germ pores (number, size and position) and echinulation. In addition, barcode loci (ITS, nad6, 28S) were used for species delimitation and for molecular phylogenetic analyses. Barcodes of 72 Milesina specimens were provided, including 11 of the 12 species. Whereas urediniospore morphology features were sufficient to distinguish all 12 Milesina species except for 2 (M. blechni and M. kriegeriana), ITS sequences separated only 4 of 11 species. Sequencing with 28S and nad6 did not improve species resolution. Phylogenetic analysis, however, revealed four phylogenetic groups within Milesina that also correlate with specific urediniospore characters (germ pore number and position and echinulation). These groups are proposed as new sections within Milesina (sections Milesina, Vogesiacae M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov., Scolopendriorum M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov. and Carpaticae M. Scholler & Bubner, sect. nov.). In addition, Milesina woodwardiana Buchheit & M. Scholler, sp. nov. on Woodwardia radicans, a member of the type section Milesina, is newly described. An identification key for European Milesina species, based on urediniospore features, is provided.
Towards Eurasia
(2019)
In order to heed the call in world literature studies to work against disciplinary Eurocentrism by refiguring both what constitutes world literature and how this is read, in this article I propose world literature as an archive of world-making practices and as an impulse for the articulation of alternative methodological approaches. This takes world literature from the postcolonial South as, following Pheng Cheah, instantiating a modality of world literature in which the need for imagining worlds with alternative centres to those determined by coloniality is particularly acute. A response to this is facilitated and illustrated by a reading of Bengali poet Rabindranath Tagore’s Letters from Russia (1930), and South African writer/activist Alex La Guma’s A Soviet Journey (1978). By drawing forward connections between the postcolonial South and the former Soviet Union, this complicates traditional colonial arrangements of the colonial ‘centre’ as cradle of civilisation and culture, as well as postcolonial scholarship’s cumulative fetishisation of ‘Europe’, by allowing a reshuffling of the co-ordinates determining ‘centres’ and ‘peripheries’ and a more nuanced grasp of ‘Europe’ simultaneously. These imaginative journeys destabilise ‘Europe’ as closed category and call forth Eurasia as a more appropriate categorical–cartographical framework for thinking this space and the connections and (hi)story-telling it stages and fosters.
Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
This is the eleventh of a series of miscellaneous contributions, by various authors, where hitherto unpublished data relevant to both the Med-Checklist and the Euro+Med (or Sisyphus) projects are presented. This instalment deals with the families Anacardiaceae, Asparagaceae (incl. Hyacinthaceae), Bignoniaceae, Cactaceae, Compositae, Cruciferae, Cyperaceae, Ericaceae, Gramineae, Labiatae, Leguminosae, Orobanchaceae, Polygonaceae, Rosaceae, Solanaceae and Staphyleaceae. It includes new country and area records and taxonomic and distributional considerations for taxa in Bidens, Campsis, Centaurea, Cyperus, Drymocallis, Engem, Hoffmannseggia, Hypopitys, Lavandula, Lithraea, Melilotus, Nicotiana, Olimarabidopsis, Opuntia, Orobanche, Phelipanche, Phragmites, Rumex, Salvia, Schinus, Staphylea, and a new combination in Drimia.
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The increasing application of intersectionality to the psychological study of identity development raises questions regarding how we as researchers construct and operationalize social identity categories, as well as how we best capture and address systems of oppression and privilege within our work. In the continental European context, the use of the intersectionality paradigm raises additional issues, since “race” was officially removed from the vernacular following the atrocities of WWII, yet racialized oppression continues to occur at every level of society. Within psychological research, participants are often divided into those with and without “migration background,” which can reiterate inequitable norms of national belonging while washing over salient lived experiences in relation to generation status, citizenship, religion, gender, and the intersection between these and other social locations. Although discrimination is increasingly examined in identity development research, rarely are the history and impact of colonialism and related socio-historical elements acknowledged. In the current paper, we aim to address these issues by reviewing previous research and discussing theoretical and practical possibilities for the future. In doing so, we delve into the problems of trading in one static social identity category (e.g., “race”) for another (e.g., “migration background/migrant”) without examining the power structures inherent in the creation of these top-down categories, or the lived experiences of those navigating what it means to be marked as a racialized Other. Focusing primarily on contextualized ethno-cultural identity development, we discuss relevant examples from the continental European context, highlighting research gaps, points for improvement, and best practices.
Sexual aggression is a serious threat to young people's sexual health in Europe, but establishing the exact scale of the problem has been hampered by a variety of conceptual and methodological problems. This article presents a framework for studying youth sexual aggression that addresses both prevalence and risk factors of victimisation and perpetration. It proposes a research tool to comprehensively assess the perpetration of, and victimisation by, sexual aggression that captures different coercive strategies, sexual acts, victim–perpetrator relations, and gender constellations. The instrument is rooted in a clear conceptual definition of sexual aggression and was pilot-tested in 10 countries of the European Union (EU). Furthermore, a list of good practice criteria is proposed to promote the quality and comparability of research on youth sexual aggression in Europe. A multilevel approach combining individual-level and country-level predictors of sexual aggression is outlined and illustrated with data from the pilot study in 10 countries.
The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We propose a merchant-regulatory framework to promote investment in the European natural gas network infrastructure based on a price cap over two-part tariffs. As suggested by Vogelsang (J Regul Econ 20:141-165, 2001) and Hogan et al. (J Regul Econ 38:113-143, 2010), a profit maximizing network operator facing this regulatory constraint will intertemporally rebalance the variable and fixed part of its two-part tariff so as to expand the congested pipelines, and converge to the Ramsey-Boiteaux equilibrium. We confirm this with actual data from the European natural gas market by comparing the bi-level price-cap model with different reference cases. We analyze the performance of the regulatory approach under different market scenarios, and identify relevant aspects that need to be addressed if the approach were to be implemented.
This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.
The Mohorovicic discontinuity, Moho for short, which marks the boundary between crust and mantle, is the main first-order structure within the lithosphere. Geodynamics and tectonic evolution determine its depth level and properties. Here, we present a map of the Moho in central Europe across the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone, a region for which a number of previous studies are available. Our results are based on homogeneous and consistent processing of P-and S-receiver functions for the largest passive seismological data set in this region yet, consisting of more than 40 000 receiver functions from almost 500 station. Besides, we also provide new results for the crustal vP/vS ratio for the whole area.
Our results are in good agreement with previous, more localized receiver function studies, as well as with the interpretation of seismic profiles, while at the same time resolving a higher level of detail than previous maps covering the area, for example regarding the Eifel Plume region, Rhine Graben and northern Alps. The close correspondence with the seismic data regarding crustal structure also increases confidence in use of the data in crustal corrections and the imaging of deeper structure, for which no independent seismic information is available.
In addition to the pronounced, stepwise transition from crustal thicknesses of 30 km in Phanerozoic Europe to more than 45 beneath the East European Craton, we can distinguish other terrane boundaries based on Moho depth as well as average crustal v(P)/v(S) ratio and Moho phase amplitudes. The terranes with distinct crustal properties span a wide range of ages, from Palaeoproterozoic in Lithuania to Cenozoic in the Alps, reflecting the complex tectonic history of Europe. Crustal thickness and properties in the study area are also markedly influenced by tectonic overprinting, for example the formation of the Central European Basin System, and the European Cenozoic Rift System. In the areas affected by Cenozoic rifting and volcanism, thinning of the crust corresponds to lithospheric updoming reported in recent surface wave and S-receiver function studies, as expected for thermally induced deformation. The same correlation applies for crustal thickening, not only across the Trans-European Suture Zone, but also within the southern part of the Bohemian Massif.