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Introduction
Attempts to improve cognitive abilities via transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) have led to ambiguous results, likely due to the method's susceptibility to methodological and inter-individual factors. Conventional tDCS, i.e., using an active electrode over brain areas associated with the targeted cognitive function and a supposedly passive reference, neglects stimulation effects on entire neural networks.
Methods
We investigated the advantage of frontoparietal network stimulation (right prefrontal anode, left posterior parietal cathode) against conventional and sham tDCS in modulating working memory (WM) capacity dependent transfer effects of a single-session distractor inhibition (DIIN) training. Since previous results did not clarify whether electrode montage drives this individual transfer, we here compared conventional to frontoparietal and sham tDCS and reanalyzed data of 124 young, healthy participants in a more robust way using linear mixed effect modeling.
Results
The interaction of electrode montage and WM capacity resulted in systematic differences in transfer effects. While higher performance gains were observed with increasing WM capacity in the frontoparietal stimulation group, low WM capacity individuals benefited more in the sham condition. The conventional stimulation group showed subtle performance gains independent of WM capacity.
Discussion
Our results confirm our previous findings of WM capacity dependent transfer effects on WM by a single-session DIIN training combined with tDCS and additionally highlight the pivotal role of the specific electrode montage. WM capacity dependent differences in frontoparietal network recruitment, especially regarding the parietal involvement, are assumed to underlie this observation.
This paper examines how wealth and income inequality dynamics are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution over the business cycle. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016, although inequality is, on average countercyclical and significantly associated with the capital share, one-third of the countries display a pro- or noncyclical relationship. To analyze the observed pattern, we incorporate distributive shocks into an RBC model, where agents are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to wealth and ability. We find that whether wealth and income inequality behave countercyclically or not depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the persistence of shocks. We match the model to quarterly US data using Bayesian techniques. The parameter estimates point toward a non-monotonic relationship between productivity and inequality fluctuations. On impact, inequality increases in response to TFP shocks but subsequently declines. Furthermore, TFP shocks explain 17% of inequality fluctuations.
We review an approach for reconstructing oscillatory networks’ undirected and directed connectivity from data. The technique relies on inferring the phase dynamics model. The central assumption is that we observe the outputs of all network nodes. We distinguish between two cases. In the first one, the observed signals represent smooth oscillations, while in the second one, the data are pulse-like and can be viewed as point processes. For the first case, we discuss estimating the true phase from a scalar signal, exploiting the protophase-to-phase transformation. With the phases at hand, pairwise and triplet synchronization indices can characterize the undirected connectivity. Next, we demonstrate how to infer the general form of the coupling functions for two or three oscillators and how to use these functions to quantify the directional links. We proceed with a different treatment of networks with more than three nodes. We discuss the difference between the structural and effective phase connectivity that emerges due to high-order terms in the coupling functions. For the second case of point-process data, we use the instants of spikes to infer the phase dynamics model in the Winfree form directly. This way, we obtain the network’s coupling matrix in the first approximation in the coupling strength.
Influence of generational status on immigrants’ entrepreneurial intentions to start new ventures
(2023)
Purpose: This study aims to identify the intentions of immigrant entrepreneurs to start new projects by investigating the role of influence of institutional support, social context, cultural intelligence, self-efficacy, optimizing personality traits and hierarchy legitimacy on intentions to start new ventures. In addition, the strength of the relationship for such factors and intentions to start new ventures was determined through the moderator role of easy access to venture capital.
Design/methodology/approach: To this end, this study complements the academic literature by integrating the structural equation modeling (SEM) and multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. Thus, the MCDM (i.e. analytic hierarchy process and vlsekriterijumska optimizcija i kaompromisno resenje [VIKOR]) is an effective approach to solving the problem of complexity and evaluation (i.e. multiple evaluation criteria, important criteria and data variation). Hence, to complete the strategic guideline solution, this study uses a survey for collecting data from 202 immigrants in Malaysia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Singapore.
Findings
The results from SEM prove several critical factors of immigrants’ entrepreneurs. These factors of immigrants’ entrepreneurs can be vital for academics and host countries. By focusing on these aspects and by developing some personality traits (such as self-efficacy and optimal personality traits), these factors can contribute a good deal to increasing the capabilities of immigrant’s entrepreneurs toward entrepreneurial intentions. In the validation, the statistical objective method indicates that the immigrants' prioritizations in all countries are supported by the systematic ranking. Thus, entrepreneurial intentions for immigrants can pursue the order proven by the VIKOR results.
Research limitations/implications: This study has some significant practical and theoretical implications. Practically, the study findings will enable managers to develop strategies to support immigrants for entrepreneurial intentions to start new ventures.
Originality/value: The novelty of the context under given circumstances of global environment adds to the originality of this study. Several previous studies have also emphasized the need for this type of study in other contexts. The findings can call managers’ attention toward a critical issue of immigrants’ entrepreneurial intentions to start new ventures.
The retention of actinides in different oxidation states (An(X), X = III, IV, VI) by a calcium-silicate-hydrate (C-S-H) phase with a Ca/Si (C/S) ratio of 0.8 was investigated in the presence of gluconate (GLU). The actinides considered were Am(III), Th(IV), Pu(IV), and U(VI). Eu(III) was investigated as chemical analogue for Am(III) and Cm(III). In addition to the ternary systems An(X)/GLU/C-S-H, also binary systems An(X)/C-S-H, GLU/C-S-H, and An(X)/GLU were studied. Complementary analytical techniques were applied to address the different specific aspects of the binary and ternary systems. Time-resolved laser-induced luminescence spectroscopy (TRLFS) was applied in combination with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) to identify retained species and to monitor species-selective sorption kinetics. ¹³C and ²⁹Si magic-angle-spinning (MAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were applied to determine the bulk structure and the composition of the C-S-H surface, respectively, in the absence and presence of GLU. The interaction of Th(IV) with GLU in different electrolytes was studied by capillary electrophoresis-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (CE-ICP-MS). The influence of GLU on An(X) retention was investigated for a large concentration range up to 10⁻² M. The results showed that GLU had little to no effect on the overall An(X) retention by C-S-H with C/S of 0.8, regardless of the oxidation state of the actinides. For Eu(III), the TRLFS investigations additionally implied the formation of a Eu(III)-bearing precipitate with dissolved constituents of the C-S-H phase, which becomes structurally altered by the presence of GLU. For U(VI) sorption on the C-S-H phase, only a small influence of GLU could be established in the luminescence spectroscopic investigations, and no precipitation of U(VI)-containing secondary phases could be identified.
Innovat MOOC
(2023)
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the importance for university teachers to have adequate pedagogical and technological competences to cope with the various possible educational scenarios (face-to-face, online, hybrid, etc.), making use of appropriate active learning methodologies and supporting technologies to foster a more effective learning environment. In this context, the InnovaT project has been an important initiative to support the development of pedagogical and technological competences of university teachers in Latin America through several trainings aiming to promote teacher innovation. These trainings combined synchronous online training through webinars and workshops with asynchronous online training through the MOOC “Innovative Teaching in Higher Education.” This MOOC was released twice. The first run took place right during the lockdown of 2020, when Latin American teachers needed urgent training to move to emergency remote teaching overnight. The second run took place in 2022 with the return to face-to-face teaching and the implementation of hybrid educational models. This article shares the results of the design of the MOOC considering the constraints derived from the lockdowns applied in each country, the lessons learned from the delivery of such a MOOC to Latin American university teachers, and the results of the two runs of the MOOC.
In this paper, we show how socialist planning can be based on input-output data. We argue that the information required for this can be obtained by a central planning agency and thus dismiss Hayek’s information argument against socialism. We further show how economic planning can be made responsive to consumer demand through a feedback control mechanism. Output targets of products would be adjusted in response to observed consumer demand or based on predictions about future demand. Planners can use machine learning to make more accurate forecasts. The valuation of goods plays an important role in the feedback control mechanism. The values of goods can either be measured by the labour time necessary for their production (labour values) or through shadow prices based on linear programming.
Introduction:
Hydrocortisone is the standard of care in cortisol replacement therapy for congenital adrenal hyperplasia patients. Challenges in mimicking cortisol circadian rhythm and dosing individualization can be overcome by the support of mathematical modelling. Previously, a non-linear mixed-effects (NLME) model was developed based on clinical hydrocortisone pharmacokinetic (PK) pediatric and adult data. Additionally, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed for adults and a pediatric model was obtained using maturation functions for relevant processes. In this work, a middle-out approach was applied. The aim was to investigate whether PBPK-derived maturation functions could provide a better description of hydrocortisone PK inter-individual variability when implemented in the NLME framework, with the goal of providing better individual predictions towards precision dosing at the patient level.
Methods:
Hydrocortisone PK data from 24 adrenal insufficiency pediatric patients and 30 adult healthy volunteers were used for NLME model development, while the PBPK model and maturation functions of clearance and cortisol binding globulin (CBG) were developed based on previous studies published in the literature.
Results:
Clearance (CL) estimates from both approaches were similar for children older than 1 year (CL/F increasing from around 150 L/h to 500 L/h), while CBG concentrations differed across the whole age range (CBG(NLME) stable around 0.5 mu M vs. steady increase from 0.35 to 0.8 mu M for CBG (PBPK)). PBPK-derived maturation functions were subsequently included in the NLME model. After inclusion of the maturation functions, none, a part of, or all parameters were re-estimated. However, the inclusion of CL and/or CBG maturation functions in the NLME model did not result in improved model performance for the CL maturation function (& UDelta;OFV > -15.36) and the re-estimation of parameters using the CBG maturation function most often led to unstable models or individual CL prediction bias.
Discussion:
Three explanations for the observed discrepancies could be postulated, i) non-considered maturation of processes such as absorption or first-pass effect, ii) lack of patients between 1 and 12 months, iii) lack of correction of PBPK CL maturation functions derived from urinary concentration ratio data for the renal function relative to adults. These should be investigated in the future to determine how NLME and PBPK methods can work towards deriving insights into pediatric hydrocortisone PK.
As Thailand moves towards becoming an innovation-driven economy, the need for human capital development has become crucial. Work-based skill MOOCs, offered on Thai MOOC, a national digital learning platform launched by Thailand Cyber University Project, ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, provide an effective way to overcome this challenge. This paper discusses the challenges faced in designing an instruction for work-based skill MOOCs that can serve as a foundation model for many more to come. The instructional design of work-based skill courses in Thai MOOC involves four simple steps, including course selection, learning from accredited providers, course requirements completion, and certification of acquired skills. The development of such courses is ongoing at the higher education level, vocational level, and pre-university level, which serve as a foundation model for many more work-based skill MOOC that will be offered on Thai MOOC soon. The instructional design of work-based skills courses should focus on the development of currently demanded professional competencies and skills, increasing the efficiency of work in the organization, creativity, and happiness in life that meets the human resources needs of industries in the 4.0 economy era in Thailand. This paper aims to present the challenges of designing instruction for work-based skill MOOCs and suggests effective ways to design instruction to enhance workforce development in Thailand.
Introduction:
Decision making results not only from logical analyses, but seems to be further guided by the ability to perceive somatic information (interoceptive accuracy). Relations between interoceptive accuracy and decision making have been exclusively studied in adults and with regard to complex, uncertain situations (as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT).
Methods:
In the present study, 1454 children (6-11 years) were examined at two time points (approximately 1 year apart) using an IGT as well as a delay-of-gratification task for sweets-items and toy-items. Interoceptive accuracy was measured using a child-adapted version of the Heartbeat Perception Task.
Results:
The present results revealed that children with higher, as compared to lower, interoceptive accuracy showed more advantageous choices in the IGT and delayed more sweets-items, but not toy-items, in a delay-of-gratification task at time point 2 but not at time point 1. However, no longitudinal relation between interoceptive accuracy and decision making 1 year later could be shown.
Discussion:
Results indicate that interoceptive accuracy relates to decision-making abilities in situations of varying complexity already in middle childhood, and that this link might consolidate across the examined 1-year period. Furthermore, the association of interoceptive accuracy and the delay of sweets-items might have implications for the regulation of body weight at a later age.
There is a growing recognition that international organizations (IOs) formulate and adopt policy in a wide range of areas. IOs have emerged as key venues for states seeking joint solutions to contemporary challenges such as climate change or COVID-19, and to establish frameworks to bolster trade, development, security, and more. In this capacity, IOs produce both extraordinary and routine policy output with a multitude of purposes, ranging from policies of historic significance like admitting new members to the more mundane tasks of administering IO staff. This article introduces the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset (IPOD), which covers close to 37,000 individual policy acts of 13 multi-issue IOs in the 1980–2015 period. The dataset fills a gap in the growing body of literature on the comparative study of IOs, providing researchers with a fine-grained perspective on the structure of IO policy output and data for comparisons across time, policy areas, and organizations. This article describes the construction and coverage of the dataset and identifies key temporal and cross-sectional patterns revealed by the data. In a concise illustration of the dataset’s utility, we apply models of punctuated equilibria in a comparative study of the relationship between institutional features and broad policy agenda dynamics. Overall, the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset offers a unique resource for researchers to analyze IO policy output in a granular manner and to explore questions of responsiveness, performance, and legitimacy of IOs.
Introduction
(2023)
Several lines of research have demonstrated spatial-numerical associations in both adults and children, which are thought to be based on a spatial representation of numerical information in the form of a mental number line. The acquisition of increasingly precise mental number line representations is assumed to support arithmetic learning in children. It is further suggested that sensorimotor experiences shape the development of number concepts and arithmetic learning, and that mental arithmetic can be characterized as “motion along a path” and might constitute shifts in attention along the mental number line. The present study investigated whether movements in physical space influence mental arithmetic in primary school children, and whether the expected effect depends on concurrency of body movements and mental arithmetic. After turning their body towards the left or right, 48 children aged 8 to 10 years solved simple subtraction and addition problems. Meanwhile, they either walked or stood still and looked towards the respective direction. We report a congruency effect between body orientation and operation type, i.e., higher performance for the combinations leftward orientation and subtraction and rightward orientation and addition. We found no significant difference between walking and looking conditions. The present results suggest that mental arithmetic in children is influenced by preceding sensorimotor cues and not necessarily by concurrent body movements.
Renewable energy changes the geopolitics of energy: whereas access to fossil fuel resources were key in the past, control over technology and industry will be key in the future. Consequently, different scholars have predicted that a growing focus on renewables will increase or decrease conflict in the energy sector, with no consensus on which is most likely. Here, we investigate the degree of conflict in renewable energy technology (RET) trade by analyzing data on 7041 trade conflicts 1995–2020, guided by two sets of theory-driven hypotheses. We show that RET trade is associated with more, longer, and more intense trade conflicts than other trade conflicts for 1995–2016. This supports the neorealist, geo-economic view of countries being willing to risk conflict to increase their share of a market rather than avoiding conflicts to increase the overall market size. It also contradicts the view that renewables will reduce conflict: at least in the past and regarding trade, it has increased rather than decreased conflict. For 2017–2020, this trend is reversed and RET trade became significantly less conflictive than other trade. Our findings imply that improved conflict-resolution institutions for RET are needed. We also suggest establishing specific institutions to govern trade in immature technologies.
Worldwide, governments have introduced novel information and communication technologies (ICTs) for policy formulation and service delivery, radically changing the working environment of government employees. Following the debate on work stress and particularly on technostress, we argue that the use of ICTs triggers “digital overload” that decreases government employees’ job satisfaction via inhibiting their job autonomy. Contrary to prior research, we consider job autonomy as a consequence rather than a determinant of digital overload, because ICT-use accelerates work routines and interruptions and eventually diminishes employees’ freedom to decide how to work. Based on novel survey data from government employees in Germany, Italy, and Norway, our structural equation modeling (SEM) confirms a significant negative effect of digital overload on job autonomy. More importantly, job autonomy partially mediates the negative relationship between digital overload and job satisfaction, pointing to the importance of studying the micro-foundations of ICT-use in the public sector.
This article responds to critical reflections on my Beyond Presidentialism and Parliamentarism by Sarah Birch, Kevin J. Elliott, Claudia Landwehr and James L. Wilson. It discusses how different types of representative democracy, especially different forms of government (presidential, parliamentary or hybrid), can be justified. It clarifies, among other things, the distinction between procedural and process equality, the strengths of semi-parliamentary government, the potential instability of constitutional designs, and the difference that theories can make in actual processes of constitutional reform.
Keep on scrolling?
(2023)
Smartphones are an integral part of daily life for many people worldwide. However, concerns have been raised that long usage times and the fragmentation of daily life through smartphone usage are detrimental to well-being. This preregistered study assesses (1) whether differences in smartphone usage behaviors between individuals predict differences in a variety of well-being measures (between-person effects) and (2) whether differences in smartphone usage behaviors between situations predict whether an individual is feeling better or worse (within-person effects). In addition to total usage time, several indicators capturing the fragmentation of usage/nonusage time were developed. The study combines objectively measured smartphone usage with self-reports of well-being in surveys (N = 236) and an experience sampling period (N = 378, n = 5775 datapoints). To ensure the robustness of the results, we replicated our analyses in a second measurement period (surveys: N = 305; experience sampling: N = 534, n = 7287 datapoints) and considered the pattern of effects across different operational definitions and constructs. Results show that individuals who use their smartphone more report slightly lower well-being (between-person effect) but no evidence for within-person effects of total usage time emerged. With respect to fragmentation, we found no robust association with well-being.
Keeping cool on hot days
(2023)
Long-lived organisms are likely to respond to a rapidly changing climate with behavioral flexibility. Animals inhabiting the arid parts of southern Africa face a particularly rapid rise in temperature which in combination with food and water scarcity places substantial constraints on the ability of animals to tolerate heat. We investigated how three species of African antelope-springbok Antidorcas marsupialis, kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros and eland T. oryx-differing in body size, habitat preference and movement ecology, change their activity in response to extreme heat in an arid savanna. Serving as a proxy for activity, dynamic body acceleration data recorded every five minutes were analyzed for seven to eight individuals per species for the three hottest months of the year. Activity responses to heat during the hottest time of day (the afternoons) were investigated and diel activity patterns were compared between hot and cool days. Springbok, which prefer open habitat, are highly mobile and the smallest of the species studied, showed the greatest decrease in activity with rising temperature. Furthermore, springbok showed reduced mean activity over the 24 h cycle on hot days compared to cool days. Large-bodied eland seemed less affected by afternoon heat than springbok. While eland also reduced diurnal activity on hot days compared to cool days, they compensated for this by increasing nocturnal activity, possibly because their predation risk is lower. Kudu, which are comparatively sedentary and typically occupy shady habitat, seemed least affected during the hottest time of day and showed no appreciable difference in diel activity patterns between hot and cool days. The interplay between habitat preference, body size, movement patterns, and other factors seems complex and even sub-lethal levels of heat stress have been shown to impact an animal's long-term survival and reproduction. Thus, differing heat tolerances among species could result in a shift in the composition of African herbivore communities as temperatures continue to rise, with significant implications for economically important wildlife-based land use and conservation.
The kinetics of water transfer between the lower critical solution temperature (LCST) and upper critical solution temperature (UCST) thermoresponsive blocks in about 10 nm thin films of a diblock copolymer is monitored by in situ neutron reflectivity. The UCST-exhibiting block in the copolymer consists of the zwitterionic poly(4((3-methacrylamidopropyl)dimethylammonio)butane-1-sulfonate), abbreviated as PSBP. The LCST-exhibiting block consists of the nonionic poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), abbreviated as PNIPAM. The as-prepared PSBP80-b-PNIPAM(400) films feature a three-layer structure, i.e., PNIPAM, mixed PNIPAM and PSBP, and PSBP. Both blocks have similar transition temperatures (TTs), namely around 32 degrees C for PNIPAM, and around 35 degrees C for PSBP, and with a two-step heating protocol (20 degrees C to 40 degrees C and 40 degrees C to 80 degrees C), both TTs are passed. The response to such a thermal stimulus turns out to be complex. Besides a three-step process (shrinkage, rearrangement, and reswelling), a continuous transfer of D2O from the PNIPAM to the PSBP block is observed. Due to the existence of both, LCST and UCST blocks in the PSBP80-b-PNIPAM(400 )film, the water transfer from the contracting PNIPAM, and mixed layers to the expanding PSBP layer occurs. Thus, the hydration kinetics and thermal response differ markedly from a thermoresponsive polymer film with a single LCST transition.
BACKGROUND: Patients with diabetes exhibit an increased prevalence for emotional disorders compared with healthy humans, partially due to a shared pathogenesis including hormone resistance and inflammation, which is also linked to intestinal dysbiosis. The preventive intake of probiotic lactobacilli has been shown to improve dysbiosis along with mood and metabolism. Yet, a potential role of Lactobacillus rhamnosus (Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus 0030) (LR) in improving emotional behavior in established obesity and the underlying mechanisms are unknown.
METHODS: Female and male C57BL/6N mice were fed a low-fat diet (10% kcal from fat) or high-fat diet (HFD) (45% kcal from fat) for 6 weeks, followed by daily oral gavage of vehicle or 1 3 10 8 colony-forming units of LR, and assessment of anxiety- and depressive-like behavior. Cecal microbiota composition was analyzed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing, plasma and cerebrospinal fluid were collected for metabolomic analysis, and gene expression of different brain areas was assessed using reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction.
RESULTS: We observed that 12 weeks of HFD feeding induced hyperinsulinemia, which was attenuated by LR application only in female mice. On the contrary, HFD-fed male mice exhibited increased anxiety- and depressive-like behavior, where the latter was specifically attenuated by LR application, which was independent of metabolic changes. Furthermore, LR application restored the HFD-induced decrease of tyrosine hydroxylase, along with normalizing cholecystokinin gene expression in dopaminergic brain regions; both tyrosine hydroxylase and cholecystokinin are involved in signaling pathways impacting emotional disorders.
CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that LR attenuates depressive-like behavior after established obesity, with changes in the dopaminergic system in male mice, and mitigates hyperinsulinemia in obese female mice.
The detection of communities in graph datasets provides insight about a graph's underlying structure and is an important tool for various domains such as social sciences, marketing, traffic forecast, and drug discovery. While most existing algorithms provide fast approaches for community detection, their results usually contain strictly separated communities. However, most datasets would semantically allow for or even require overlapping communities that can only be determined at much higher computational cost. We build on an efficient algorithm, FOX, that detects such overlapping communities. FOX measures the closeness of a node to a community by approximating the count of triangles which that node forms with that community. We propose LAZYFOX, a multi-threaded adaptation of the FOX algorithm, which provides even faster detection without an impact on community quality. This allows for the analyses of significantly larger and more complex datasets. LAZYFOX enables overlapping community detection on complex graph datasets with millions of nodes and billions of edges in days instead of weeks. As part of this work, LAZYFOX's implementation was published and is available as a tool under an MIT licence at https://github.com/TimGarrels/LazyFox.
Our study applies legitimacy theorizing to service research, zooming in on co-prosumption service business models, which reside on significant direct contacts among provider-actors and customers as well as fellow customers in the service space. Our findings are based on a longitudinal flexible pattern matching method on 17 coworking spaces. The service cocreation nuances the double role of customers as evaluators and cocreators of legitimacy. This is because customers can have immediate perceptions of the actions and values of the services in their legitimacy evaluation while cocreating the service. Legitimacy shaped via social and recursive processes occurs in three stages: provisional, calibrated, and affirmed legitimacy. Findings inform four trajectory mechanisms of value-in-use pattern provenance, emergent Business Model development adaptive to the spatial context and loyal customers, visible trances as well as inside-out and outside-in identification processes. Further, the processes in the micro-ecosystem of an interstitial service space can develop a superordinate logic which overlays the potentially present coopetive and heterogenous institutional logics and interests of service customers.
Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) is gaining recognition and importance as an organismic model for toxicity testing in line with the 3Rs principle (replace, reduce, refine). In this study, we explored the use of C. elegans to examine the toxicities of alkylating sulphur mustard analogues, specifically the monofunctional agent 2-chloroethyl-ethyl sulphide (CEES) and the bifunctional, crosslinking agent mechlorethamine (HN2). We exposed wild-type worms at different life cycle stages (from larvae L1 to adulthood day 10) to CEES or HN2 and scored their viability 24 h later. The susceptibility of C. elegans to CEES and HN2 paralleled that of human cells, with HN2 exhibiting higher toxicity than CEES, reflected in LC50 values in the high µM to low mM range. Importantly, the effects were dependent on the worms’ developmental stage as well as organismic age: the highest susceptibility was observed in L1, whereas the lowest was observed in L4 worms. In adult worms, susceptibility to alkylating agents increased with advanced age, especially to HN2. To examine reproductive effects, L4 worms were exposed to CEES and HN2, and both the offspring and the percentage of unhatched eggs were assessed. Moreover, germline apoptosis was assessed by using ced-1p::GFP (MD701) worms. In contrast to concentrations that elicited low toxicities to L4 worms, CEES and HN2 were highly toxic to germline cells, manifesting as increased germline apoptosis as well as reduced offspring number and percentage of eggs hatched. Again, HN2 exhibited stronger effects than CEES. Compound specificity was also evident in toxicities to dopaminergic neurons–HN2 exposure affected expression of dopamine transporter DAT-1 (strain BY200) at lower concentrations than CEES, suggesting a higher neurotoxic effect. Mechanistically, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) has been linked to mustard agent toxicities. Therefore, the NAD+-dependent system was investigated in the response to CEES and HN2 treatment. Overall NAD+ levels in worm extracts were revealed to be largely resistant to mustard exposure except for high concentrations, which lowered the NAD+ levels in L4 worms 24 h post-treatment. Interestingly, however, mutant worms lacking components of NAD+-dependent pathways involved in genome maintenance, namely pme-2, parg-2, and sirt-2.1 showed a higher and compound-specific susceptibility, indicating an active role of NAD+ in genotoxic stress response. In conclusion, the present results demonstrate that C. elegans represents an attractive model to study the toxicology of alkylating agents, which supports its use in mechanistic as well as intervention studies with major strength in the possibility to analyze toxicities at different life cycle stages.
Linguistic structure modulates attention in reading: evidence from negative concord in Italian
(2023)
We report the reading performance of an Italian speaker with egocentric Neglect Dyslexia on sentences with Negative Concord structures, which contain a linguistic cue to the presence of a preceding negative marker and compare it to sentences with no such cue. As predicted, the frequency of reading the whole sentence, including the initial negative marker non, was higher in Negative Concord structures than in sentences which also started with non, but crucially, lacked the medially positioned linguistic cue to the presence of non.
These data support the claim that the presence of linguistic cues to sentence structure modulates attention during reading in Neglect Dyslexia.
The study addresses the question, if observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter are driven by Arctic Sea ice decline alone or if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. We compare atmosphere-only model experiments with ECHAM6 to ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. The model sensitivity experiment is implemented as a set of four combinations of sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary conditions. Atmospheric circulation regimes are determined and evaluated in terms of their cyclone and blocking characteristics and changes in frequency during winter. As a prerequisite, ECHAM6 reproduces general features of circulation regimes very well. Tropospheric changes induced by the change of boundary conditions are revealed and further impacts on the large-scale circulation up into the stratosphere are investigated. In early winter, the observed increase of atmospheric blocking in the region between Scandinavia and the Urals are primarily related to the changes in sea surface temperatures. During late winter, we f nd a weakened polar stratospheric vortex in the reanalysis that further impacts the troposphere. In the model sensitivity study a climatologically weakened polar vortex occurs only if sea ice is reduced and sea surface temperatures are increased together. This response is delayed compared to the reanalysis. The tropospheric response during late winter is inconclusive in the model, which is potentially related to the weak and delayed response in the stratosphere. The model experiments do not reproduce the connection between early and late winter as interpreted from the reanalysis. Potentially explaining this mismatch, we identify a discrepancy of ECHAM6 to reproduce the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex through blocking induced upward propagation of planetary waves.
Living alone in the city
(2023)
Over the past decades, the number of single households is constantly rising in metropolitan regions. In addition, they became increasingly heterogeneous. In the media, individuals who live alone are sometimes still presented as deficient. Recent research, however, indicates a way more complex picture. Using the example of Vienna, this paper investigates the quality of life of different groups of single households in the city. Based on five waves of the Viennese Quality of Life Survey covering almost a quarter of a century (1995–2018), we analyse six domains of subjective well-being (satisfaction with the financial situation, the housing situation, the main activity, the family life, social contacts, and leisure time activities). Our analyses reveal that, in most domains, average satisfaction of single households has hardly changed over time. However, among those living alone satisfaction of senior people (60+) increased while satisfaction of younger people (below age 30) decreased. Increasing differences in satisfaction with main activity, housing, or financial situation reflect general societal developments on the Viennese labour and housing markets. The old clichéd images of the “young, reckless, happy single” and the “lonely, poor, dissatisfied senior single” reverse reality.
When two initially thermal many-body systems start to interact strongly, their transient states quickly become non-Gibbsian, even if the systems eventually equilibrate. To see beyond this apparent lack of structure during the transient regime, we use a refined notion of thermality, which we call g-local. A system is g-locally thermal if the states of all its small subsystems are marginals of global thermal states. We numerically demonstrate for two harmonic lattices that whenever the total system equilibrates in the long run, each lattice remains g-locally thermal at all times, including the transient regime. This is true even when the lattices have long-range interactions within them. In all cases, we find that the equilibrium is described by the generalized Gibbs ensemble, with three-dimensional lattices requiring special treatment due to their extended set of conserved charges. We compare our findings with the well-known two-temperature model. While its standard form is not valid beyond weak coupling, we show that at strong coupling it can be partially salvaged by adopting the concept of a g-local temperature.
Objective
Leaders differ in their personalities from non-leaders. However, when do these differences emerge? Are leaders "born to be leaders" or does their personality change in preparation for a leadership role and due to increasing leadership experience?
Method
Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study, we examined personality differences between leaders (N = 2683 leaders, women: n = 967; 36.04%) and non-leaders (N = 33,663) as well as personality changes before and after becoming a leader.
Results
Already in the years before starting a leadership position, leaders-to-be were more extraverted, open, emotionally stable, conscientious, and willing to take risks, felt to have greater control, and trusted others more than non-leaders. Moreover, personality changed in emergent leaders: While approaching a leadership position, leaders-to-be (especially men) became gradually more extraverted, open, and willing to take risks and felt to have more control over their life. After becoming a leader, they became less extraverted, less willing to take risks, and less conscientious but gained self-esteem.
Conclusions
Our findings suggest that people are not simply "born to be leaders" but that their personalities change considerably in preparation for a leadership role and due to leadership experience. Some changes are transient, but others last for a long time.
The modern conception of the werewolf is heavily influenced by Gothic reinterpretations of medieval European stories. This kind of werewolf is the one that has appeared on screen and written fiction for decades, but MTV’s Teen Wolf, a re-boot of the 1980s film which aired between 2011 – 17, is different. In this young adult supernatural drama, werewolves descend directly from Lycaon, and a substantial proportion of the show’s werewolf lore derives from Graeco-Roman stories about wolf-shifters and versipelles. This paper wants to explore the extent of the use in the show of the myth of Lycaon in particular, of Classical versipelles in general, the significance of these two references for the narrative, and the degree of innovation in modern supernatural fiction of this adaptation of Greek and Roman stories.
This study analyses the impact of managers’ risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. We begin by providing nationally representative evidence that managers’ risk-aversion is negatively correlated with the likelihood that their firms engage in any worker training. Using a novel vignette study, we then demonstrate that risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer less general training and are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. Adopting a weighting approach to flexibly control for observed differences in the characteristics of risk-averse and risk-tolerant managers, we show that our findings cannot be explained by heterogeneity in either managers’ observed characteristics or the type of firms where they work. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or that targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This provides suggestive evidence that the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk).
Miguel de Luna as arbitrista
(2023)
This article deals with Miguel de Luna, a Morisco from Granada, who is most famous for his involvement in the Lead Books of Sacromonte affair. In the following pages I will, however, focus on a facet of his life that has been rather neglected. Rather than recount again his activities as translator for Arabic, I will shed light on his work as physician and claim that his medical paper on the benefits of bathing and the reopening of public baths in Granada may very well put him in league with the arbitristas, a group of intellectuals who advised the monarch in economic and financial matters.
Core-collapse supernova remnants are structures of the interstellar medium (ISM) left behind the explosive death of most massive stars ( ?40 M-?). Since they result in the expansion of the supernova shock wave into the gaseous environment shaped by the star's wind history, their morphology constitutes an insight into the past evolution of their progenitor star. Particularly, fast-mo ving massiv e stars can produce asymmetric core-collapse superno va remnants. We inv estigate the mixing of materials in core-collapse supernova remnants generated by a moving massive 35 M-? star, in a magnetized ISM. Stellar rotation and the wind magnetic field are time-dependently included into the models which follow the entire evolution of the stellar surroundings from the zero-age main-sequence to 80 kyr after the supernova explosion. It is found that very little main-sequence material is present in remnants from moving stars, that the Wolf-Rayet wind mixes very efficiently within the 10 kyr after the explosion, while the red supergiant material is still unmixed by 30 per cent within 50 kyr after the supernova. Our results indicate that the faster the stellar motion, the more complex the internal organization of the supernova remnant and the more ef fecti ve the mixing of ejecta therein. In contrast, the mixing of stellar wind material is only weakly affected by progenitor motion, if at all.
In precision agriculture, the estimation of soil parameters via sensors and the creation of nutrient maps are a prerequisite for farmers to take targeted measures such as spatially resolved fertilization. In this work, 68 soil samples uniformly distributed over a field near Bonn are investigated using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). These investigations include the determination of the total contents of macro- and micronutrients as well as further soil parameters such as soil pH, soil organic matter (SOM) content, and soil texture. The applied LIBS instruments are a handheld and a platform spectrometer, which potentially allows for the single-point measurement and scanning of whole fields, respectively. Their results are compared with a high-resolution lab spectrometer. The prediction of soil parameters was based on multivariate methods. Different feature selection methods and regression methods like PLS, PCR, SVM, Lasso, and Gaussian processes were tested and compared. While good predictions were obtained for Ca, Mg, P, Mn, Cu, and silt content, excellent predictions were obtained for K, Fe, and clay content. The comparison of the three different spectrometers showed that although the lab spectrometer gives the best results, measurements with both field spectrometers also yield good results. This allows for a method transfer to the in-field measurements.
Modularization describes the transformation of MOOCs from a comprehensive academic course format into smaller, more manageable learning offerings. It can be seen as one of the prerequisites for the successful implementation of MOOC-based micro-credentials in professional education and training. This short paper reports on the development and application of a modularization framework for Open Online Courses. Using the example of eGov-Campus, a German MOOC provider for the public sector linked to both academia and formal professional development, the structural specifications for modularized MOOC offerings and a methodology for course transformation as well as associated challenges in technology, organization and educational design are outlined. Following on from this, future prospects are discussed under the headings of individualization, certification and integration.
This paper investigates private university students’ language learning activities in MOOC platforms and their attitude toward it. The study explores the development of MOOC use in Chinese private universities, with a focus on two modes: online et blended. We conducted empirical studies with students learning French and Japanese as a second foreign language, using questionnaires (N = 387) and interviews (N = 20) at a private university in Wuhan. Our results revealed that the majority of students used the MOOC platform more than twice a week and focused on the MOOC video, materials and assignments. However, we also found that students showed less interest in online communication (forums). Those who worked in the blended learning mode, especially Japanese learning students, had a more positive attitude toward MOOCs than other students.
This qualitative study explores the impact of Personalized Learning Experience (PLE) courses at a higher education institution from the perspective of undergraduate students. The PLE program requires students to take at least one of their elective courses in the form of MOOCs during their undergraduate studies. Drawing on interviews with six students across different faculties, the study identified four key themes that encapsulate the effects of PLE courses: (1) Certificate driven learning with a focus on occupation skill enhancement, (2) diverse course offerings to enhance personal and academic development, (3) learning flexibility, and (4) student satisfaction. The findings suggest that PLE courses offered through MOOC platforms allow students to broaden their academic horizons, gain valuable skills, and tailor their education to better align with their interests and goals. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential benefits of incorporating PLE courses in higher education institutions, emphasizing their role in promoting a more dynamic and student-centered learning environment.
As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965–2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms.
Mothers of Seafaring
(2023)
The article aims to trace the contribution of Jewish women in the Yishuv’s maritime history. Taking the example of Henrietta Diamond, a founding member and chairperson of the Zebulun Seafaring Society, the article seeks to explore the representation and role of women in a growing Jewish maritime domain from the 1930s to the 1950s. It examines Zionist narratives on the ‘New Jew’ and the Jewish body and studies their relevance for the emerging field of maritime activities in the Yishuv. By contextualizing the work and depiction of Henrietta Diamond, the article sheds new light on the gendered notions that underlay the emergence of the Jewish maritime domain and illustrates the patterns of inclusion and exclusion in it.
A new solid-state material, N-butyl pyridinium diiodido argentate(I), is synthesized using a simple and effective one-pot approach. In the solid state, the compound exhibits 1D ([AgI2](-))(n) chains that are stabilized by the N-butyl pyridinium cation. The 1D structure is further manifested by the formation of long, needle-like crystals, as revealed from electron microscopy. As the general composition is derived from metal halide-based ionic liquids, the compound has a low melting point of 100-101 degrees C, as confirmed by differential scanning calorimetry. Most importantly, the compound has a conductivity of 10(-6) S cm(-1) at room temperature. At higher temperatures the conductivity increases and reaches to 10(-4 )S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. In contrast to AgI, however, the current material has a highly anisotropic 1D arrangement of the ionic domains. This provides direct and tuneable access to fast and anisotropic ionic conduction. The material is thus a significant step forward beyond current ion conductors and a highly promising prototype for the rational design of highly conductive ionic solid-state conductors for battery or solar cell applications.
Sulfur mustard (SM) and its derivatives are potent genotoxic agents, which have been shown to trigger the activation of poly (ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARPs) and the depletion of their substrate, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+). NAD+ is an essential molecule involved in numerous cellular pathways, including genome integrity and DNA repair, and thus, NAD+ supplementation might be beneficial for mitigating mustard-induced (geno)toxicity. In this study, the role of NAD+ depletion and elevation in the genotoxic stress response to SM derivatives, i.e., the monofunctional agent 2-chloroethyl-ethyl sulfide (CEES) and the crosslinking agent mechlorethamine (HN2), was investigated with the use of NAD+ booster nicotinamide riboside (NR) and NAD+ synthesis inhibitor FK866. The effects were analyzed in immortalized human keratinocytes (HaCaT) or monocyte-like cell line THP-1. In HaCaT cells, NR supplementation, increased NAD+ levels, and elevated PAR response, however, did not affect ATP levels or DNA damage repair, nor did it attenuate long- and short-term cytotoxicities. On the other hand, the depletion of cellular NAD+ via FK866 sensitized HaCaT cells to genotoxic stress, particularly CEES exposure, whereas NR supplementation, by increasing cellular NAD+ levels, rescued the sensitizing FK866 effect. Intriguingly, in THP-1 cells, the NR-induced elevation of cellular NAD+ levels did attenuate toxicity of the mustard compounds, especially upon CEES exposure. Together, our results reveal that NAD+ is an important molecule in the pathomechanism of SM derivatives, exhibiting compound-specificity. Moreover, the cell line-dependent protective effects of NR are indicative of system-specificity of the application of this NAD+ booster.
In late summer, migratory bats of the temperate zone face the challenge of accomplishing two energy-demanding tasks almost at the same time: migration and mating. Both require information and involve search efforts, such as localizing prey or finding potential mates. In non-migrating bat species, playback studies showed that listening to vocalizations of other bats, both con-and heterospecifics, may help a recipient bat to find foraging patches and mating sites. However, we are still unaware of the degree to which migrating bats depend on con-or heterospecific vocalizations for identifying potential feeding or mating opportunities during nightly transit flights. Here, we investigated the vocal responses of Nathusius’ pipistrelle bats, Pipistrellus nathusii, to simulated feeding and courtship aggregations at a coastal migration corridor. We presented migrating bats either feeding buzzes or courtship calls of their own or a heterospecific migratory species, the common noctule, Nyctalus noctula. We expected that during migratory transit flights, simulated feeding opportunities would be particularly attractive to bats, as well as simulated mating opportunities which may indicate suitable roosts for a stopover. However, we found that when compared to the natural silence of both pre-and post-playback phases, bats called indifferently during the playback of conspecific feeding sounds, whereas P. nathusii echolocation call activity increased during simulated feeding of N. noctula. In contrast, the call activity of P. nathusii decreased during the playback of conspecific courtship calls, while no response could be detected when heterospecific call types were broadcasted. Our results suggest that while on migratory transits, P. nathusii circumnavigate conspecific mating aggregations, possibly to save time or to reduce the risks associated with social interactions where aggression due to territoriality might be expected. This avoidance behavior could be a result of optimization strategies by P. nathusii when performing long-distance migratory flights, and it could also explain the lack of a response to simulated conspecific feeding. However, the observed increase of activity in response to simulated feeding of N. noctula, suggests that P. nathusii individuals may be eavesdropping on other aerial hawking insectivorous species during migration, especially if these occupy a slightly different foraging niche.
This essay takes an Anglophone Cultural Studies approach to reflect on the interdependence among as well as the individual (implicit) impact of the elements constituting our (embodied) power structures. These are, e.g., bodily experience/s such as shame and fear, everyday and institutional discourses and practices, but also manifestations of differences and particularities that we transform into phenomena such as “norms”, “binary systems” and “binary organisations”. The analysis of seemingly cyclic “Othering processes” and patterns of violence shows how people who identify as trans*, inter*, or non-binary have to live through and embody epistemological, emotional, and/or physical violence. At the same time, the descriptions illustrate numberless potential forms of resistance and change.
Networking fast and slow
(2023)
Growing interest in network dynamics has led to insights about patterns of network change, drivers of tie formation, and the temporal unfolding of the consequences of networks. To this area of inquiry, we introduce networking speed—the time that it takes for individuals to form a network tie—as an important but so far largely overlooked aspect. We develop a theory of networking speed that explains how different catalysts enable professionals to introduce variation into the speed with which they form interpersonal network ties. We discuss how such variation in the speed with which ties have been formed influences relational outcomes and the network returns that these ties generate. This discussion illustrates that high networking speed can entail advantages as well as pitfalls. We also explore temporal implications of networking speed—for instance, the persistence of the effects of speed over time. Overall, we conceptualize networking speed as a constitutive element of how interpersonal networks function in professional settings, and we propose a future research program for the integration of this novel concept into organizational network research.
New Relations in the Making?
(2023)
No evidence of growth impairment after forced migration in Polish school children after World War II
(2023)
Background: Migration is omnipresent. It can come hand in hand with emotional stress which is known to influence the growth of children.
Objective: The aim of this study was to analyse whether type of migration (forced or voluntary) and the geographic direction had influenced the growth of Polish children after World War II.
Sample and Methods: A sub dataset of 2,208 individuals between the ages of 2-20, created from data of the 2nd Polish Anthropological Survey carried out in 1966–1969, including anthropometrical data and social and demographic information based on questionnaire, was used to analyse migration effects.
Results: No association could be found between the direction of migration and the height of the children. The confidence intervals of the means of all classified migration categories overlap significantly and the effect size of the influence of migration category on height is ds=.140, which is too low to see any effects, even if there were one.
Conclusion: Neither forced nor voluntary migration in Poland after World War II led to a change in height in children of migrating families.
Nutrition, size, and tempo
(2023)
Nutrition is a prerequisite, but not a regulator of growth. Growth is defined as increase in size over time. The understanding of growth includes an understanding of the binary concept of physical time and individual tempo. Excess food causes tempo acceleration. Food restriction delays tempo. Tempo reflects the pace of life. It is a dynamic physical response to a broad spectrum of social, economic, political, and emotional (SEPE) factors and can affect life expectancy. Variations in tempo create distortions of the z-score patterns of height and weight. Illness or intermediate food shortage lead to intermediate halts in development and create short dips in the z-score patterns. Children who develop throughout life at delayed pace usually run at lower z-scores for height and weight, and show a characteristic adolescent trough; children who develop throughout life at faster than average pace usually run at higher z-scores and show a characteristic adolescent peak in their z-score patterns. During adolescence, almost half of the height variance is due to tempo variation. There is not one tempo for the whole body. Different organ systems grow and mature at different pace.
Records from ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) are highly contaminated by noise, which is much stronger compared to data from most land stations, especially on the horizontal components. As a consequence, the high energy of the oceanic noise at frequencies below 1 Hz considerably complicates the analysis of the teleseismic earthquake signals recorded by OBSs.
Previous studies suggested different approaches to remove low-frequency noises from OBS recordings but mainly focused on the vertical component. The records of horizontal components, which are crucial for the application of many methods in passive seismological analysis of body and surface waves, could not be much improved in the teleseismic frequency band. Here we introduce a noise reduction method, which is derived from the harmonic–percussive separation algorithms used in Zali et al. (2021), in order to separate long-lasting narrowband signals from broadband transients in the OBS signal. This leads to significant noise reduction of OBS records on both the vertical and horizontal components and increases the earthquake signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) without distortion of the broadband earthquake waveforms. This is demonstrated through tests with synthetic data. Both SNR and cross-correlation coefficients showed significant improvements for different realistic noise realizations. The application of denoised signals in surface wave analysis and receiver functions is discussed through tests with synthetic and real data.
This paper is founded on two philosophical assumptions. The first is that there is a difference between two patterns of recognition: the dialectical and the dialogical. The second assumption is that the origins of the dialogical pattern may be found in the relationship between human beings and God, a relationship in which prayer has a major role. The second assumption leads to the supposition that the emphasis of the dialogic approach on moral responsibility is theologically grounded. In other words, the relationship between humanity and God serves as a paradigm for human relationships. By focusing on Hermann Cohen and Franz Rosenzweig, in the context of prayer and dialectic, this paper highlights the complexity of these themes in modern Jewish thought. These two important philosophers utilize dialectical reasoning while also criticizing it and offering an alternative. The conclusions of their thought, in general, and their position on prayer, in particular, demonstrate a preference for a relational way of thinking over a dialectical one, but without renouncing the latter.
Students enter school with a vast range of individual differences, resulting from the complex interplay between genetic dispositions and unequal environmental conditions. Schools thus face the challenge of organizing instruction and providing equal opportunities for students with diverse needs. Schools have traditionally managed student heterogeneity by sorting students both within and between schools according to their academic ability. However, empirical evidence suggests that such tracking approaches increase inequalities. In more recent years, driven largely by technological advances, there have been calls to embrace students' individual differences in the classroom and to personalize students' learning experiences. A central justification for personalized learning is its potential to improve educational equity. In this paper, we discuss whether and under which conditions personalized learning can indeed increase equity in K-12 education by bringing together empirical and theoretical insights from different fields, including the learning sciences, philosophy, psychology, and sociology. We distinguish between different conceptions of equity and argue that personalized learning is unlikely to result in "equality of outcomes" and, by definition, does not provide "equality of inputs". However, if implemented in a high-quality way, personalized learning is in line with "adequacy" notions of equity, which aim to equip all students with the basic competencies to participate in society as active members and to live meaningful lives.
Giving emotional intelligence to machines can facilitate the early detection and prediction of mental diseases and symptoms. Electroencephalography (EEG)-based emotion recognition is widely applied because it measures electrical correlates directly from the brain rather than indirect measurement of other physiological responses initiated by the brain. Therefore, we used non-invasive and portable EEG sensors to develop a real-time emotion classification pipeline. The pipeline trains different binary classifiers for Valence and Arousal dimensions from an incoming EEG data stream achieving a 23.9% (Arousal) and 25.8% (Valence) higher F1-Score on the state-of-art AMIGOS dataset than previous work. Afterward, the pipeline was applied to the curated dataset from 15 participants using two consumer-grade EEG devices while watching 16 short emotional videos in a controlled environment. Mean F1-Scores of 87% (Arousal) and 82% (Valence) were achieved for an immediate label setting. Additionally, the pipeline proved to be fast enough to achieve predictions in real-time in a live scenario with delayed labels while continuously being updated. The significant discrepancy from the readily available labels on the classification scores leads to future work to include more data. Thereafter, the pipeline is ready to be used for real-time applications of emotion classification.
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.
This work explores the use of different generative AI tools in the design of MOOC courses. Authors in this experience employed a variety of AI-based tools, including natural language processing tools (e.g. Chat-GPT), and multimedia content authoring tools (e.g. DALLE-2, Midjourney, Tome.ai) to assist in the course design process. The aim was to address the unique challenges of MOOC course design, which includes to create engaging and effective content, to design interactive learning activities, and to assess student learning outcomes. The authors identified positive results with the incorporation of AI-based tools, which significantly improved the quality and effectiveness of MOOC course design. The tools proved particularly effective in analyzing and categorizing course content, identifying key learning objectives, and designing interactive learning activities that engaged students and facilitated learning. Moreover, the use of AI-based tools, streamlined the course design process, significantly reducing the time required to design and prepare the courses. In conclusion, the integration of generative AI tools into the MOOC course design process holds great potential for improving the quality and efficiency of these courses. Researchers and course designers should consider the advantages of incorporating generative AI tools into their design process to enhance their course offerings and facilitate student learning outcomes while also reducing the time and effort required for course development.
In recent years, governments have increased their efforts to strengthen the citizen-orientation in policy design. They have established temporary arenas as well as permanent units inside the machinery of government to integrate citizens into policy formulation, leading to a “laboratorization” of central government organizations. We argue that the evolution and role of these units herald new dynamics in the importance of organizational reputation for executive politics. These actors deviate from the classic palette of organizational units inside the machinery of government and thus require their own reputation vis-à-vis various audiences within and outside their parent organization. Based on a comparative case study of two of these units inside the German federal bureaucracy, we show how ambiguous expectations of their audiences challenge their organizational reputation. Both units resolve these tensions by balancing their weaker professional and procedural reputation with a stronger performative and moral reputation. We conclude that government units aiming to improve citizen orientation in policy design may benefit from engaging with citizens as their external audience to compensate for a weaker reputation in the eyes of their audiences inside the government organization. Points for practitioners: many governments have introduced novel means to strengthen citizen-centered policy design, which has led to an emergence of novel units inside central government that differ from traditional bureaucratic structures and procedures ; this study analyzes how these new units may build their organizational reputation vis-à-vis internal and external actors in government policymaking. ; we show that such units assert themselves primarily based on their performative and moral reputation.
Paid parental leave schemes have been shown to increase women’s employment rates but to decrease their wages in case of extended leave duration. In view of these potential trade-offs, many countries are discussing the optimal design of parental leave policies. We analyze the impact of a major parental leave reform on mothers’ long-term earnings. The 2007 German parental leave reform replaced a means-tested benefit with a more generous earnings-related benefit that is granted for a shorter period of time. Additionally, a ”daddy quota” of two months was introduced. To identify the causal effect of this policy mix on long-run earnings of mothers, we use a difference-in-differences approach that compares labor market outcomes of mothers who gave birth just before and right after the reform and nets out seasonal effects by including the year before. Using administrative social security data, we confirm previous findings and show that the average duration of employment interruptions increased for mothers with high pre-birth earnings. Nevertheless, we find a positive long-run effect on earnings for mothers in this group. This effect cannot be explained by changes in the selection of working mothers, working hours or changes in employer stability. Descriptive evidence suggests that the stronger involvement of fathers, incentivized by the ”daddy months”, could have facilitated mothers’ re-entry into the labor market and thereby increased earnings. For mothers with low pre-birth earnings, however, we do not find beneficial long-run effects of this parental leave reform.
Objective:
Following a life course perspective, this study examines the link between partnership trajectories and three dimensions of psychological well-being: psychological health, overall sense of self-worth and quality of life.
Background:
Assuming that life outcomes are the result of prior decisions, experiences and events, partnership histories can be seen as a resource for psychological well-being. Furthermore, advantages or disadvantages from living with or without a partner should accumulate over time. While previous cross-sectional research has mainly focused on the influence of partnership status or a status change on well-being, prior longitudinal studies could not control for reverse causality of well-being and partnership trajectories. This research addresses the question of how different patterns of partnership biographies are related to a person's well-being in middle adulthood. Selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being as well as current life conditions are also taken into account.
Method:
Using data from the German LifE Study, the partnership trajectories between ages of 16 and 45 are classified by sequence and cluster analysis. OLS regression is then used to examine the link between types of partnership trajectories and depression, self-esteem and overall life satisfaction at age 45.
Results:
For women, well-being declined when experiencing unstable non-cohabitational union trajectories or divorce followed by unpartnered post-marital trajectories. Men suffered most from being long-term single. The results could not be explained by selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being.
Conclusion:
While women seem to 'recover' from most of the negative effects of unstable partnership trajectories through a new partnership, for men it was shown that being mainly unpartnered has long-lasting effects on their psychological well-being.
Physical fitness of primary school children differs depending on their timing of school enrollment
(2023)
Previous research has shown that children who were enrolled to school according to the legal key date (i.e., keyage children, between eight and nine years in third grade) exhibited a linear physical fitness development in the ninth year of life. In contrast, children who were enrolled with a delay (i.e., older-than-keyage children [OTK], between nine and ten years in third grade) exhibited a lower physical fitness compared to what would be expected for their age. In these studies, cross-sectional age differences within third grade and timing of school enrollment were confounded. The present study investigated the longitudinal development of keyage and OTK children from third to fifth grade. This design also afforded a comparison of the two groups at the same average chronological age, that is a dissociation of the effects of timing of school enrollment and age. We tested six physical fitness components: cardiorespiratory endurance, coordination, speed, power of lower and upper limbs, and static balance. 1502 children (i.e., 1206 keyage and 296 OTK children) from 35 schools were tested in third, fourth, and fifth grade. Except for cardiorespiratory endurance, both groups developed from third to fourth and from fourth to fifth grade and keyage children outperformed OTK children at the average ages of 9.5 or 10.5 years. For cardiorespiratory endurance, there was no significant gain from fourth to fifth grade and keyage and OTK children did not differ significantly at 10.5 years of age. One reason for a delayed school enrollment could be that a child is (or is perceived as) biologically younger than their chronological age at the school entry examination, implying a negative correlation between chronological and biological age for OTK children. Indeed, a simple reflection of chronological age brought the developmental rate of the chronologically youngest OTK children in line with the developmental rate observed for keyage children, but did not eliminate all differences. The mapping of chronological and biological age of OTK children and other possible reasons for lower physical fitness of OTK children remain a task for future research.
The birth of the Yishuv’s national shipping company, ZIM was preceded by private enterprise; the sea had not traditionally been a focus of the Zionist movement. In the 1930s, a five-year span of private commercial shipping saw three companies in the Jewish community in Palestine – Palestine Shipping Company, Palestine Maritime Lloyd, and Atid – before shipping was cut short by the outbreak of the Second World War. Despite their brief lifespans and their negligible contribution to general shipping, these companies constituted an important milestone. Their existence helped shift the Yishuv leadership’s attitudes about shipping’s importance for the community and the need for it to be supported by national institutions.
We present a Reduced Order Model (ROM) which exploits recent developments in Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for solving inverse problems for the Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). In the proposed approach, the presence of simulated data for the fluid dynamics fields is assumed. A POD-Galerkin ROM is then constructed by applying POD on the snapshots matrices of the fluid fields and performing a Galerkin projection of the NSE (or the modified equations in case of turbulence modeling) onto the POD reduced basis. A POD-Galerkin PINN ROM is then derived by introducing deep neural networks which approximate the reduced outputs with the input being time and/or parameters of the model. The neural networks incorporate the physical equations (the POD-Galerkin reduced equations) into their structure as part of the loss function. Using this approach, the reduced model is able to approximate unknown parameters such as physical constants or the boundary conditions. A demonstration of the applicability of the proposed ROM is illustrated by three cases which are the steady flow around a backward step, the flow around a circular cylinder and the unsteady turbulent flow around a surface mounted cubic obstacle.
Structural duration conveys stability but also resilience in central government and is therefore a key issue in the debate on the structure and organization of government. This paper discusses three core variants of structural duration to study the explanatory relevance of politics. We compare these durations across ministerialunits in four European democracies (Germany, France, The Netherlands, and Norway) from 1980 to 2013, totaling over 17,000 units. Our empirical analyses show that cabinets’ ideological turnover and extremism are the most significant predictors of all variants of duration, whereas polarization in parliament as well as new prime ministers without office experience yield the predicted significant negative effects for most models. We discuss these findings and avenues for futureresearch that acknowledge the definition and measures for structural change as well as temporal aspects of the empirical phenomenon more explicitly.
Any system at play in a data-driven project has a fundamental requirement: the ability to load data. The de-facto standard format to distribute and consume raw data is CSV. Yet, the plain text and flexible nature of this format make such files often difficult to parse and correctly load their content, requiring cumbersome data preparation steps. We propose a benchmark to assess the robustness of systems in loading data from non-standard CSV formats and with structural inconsistencies. First, we formalize a model to describe the issues that affect real-world files and use it to derive a systematic lpollutionz process to generate dialects for any given grammar. Our benchmark leverages the pollution framework for the csv format. To guide pollution, we have surveyed thousands of real-world, publicly available csv files, recording the problems we encountered. We demonstrate the applicability of our benchmark by testing and scoring 16 different systems: popular csv parsing frameworks, relational database tools, spreadsheet systems, and a data visualization tool.
The genetic structure of Bryde's whale (Balaenoptera brydei) on the central and western North Pacific feeding grounds was investigated using a total of 1195 mitochondrial control region sequences and 1182 microsatellite genotypes at 17 loci in specimens collected from three longitudinal areas, 1W (135 degrees E-165 degrees E), 1E (165 degrees E-180 degrees), and 2 (180 degrees-155 degrees W). Genetic diversities were similar among areas and a haplotype network did not show any geographic structure, while an analysis of molecular variance found evidence of genetic structure in this species. Pairwise FST and G'ST estimates and heterogeneity tests attributed this structure to weak but significant differentiation between areas 1W/1E and 2. A Mantel test and a high-resolution analysis of genetic diversity statistics showed a weak spatial cline of genetic differentiation. These findings could be reconciled by two possible stock structure scenarios: (1) a single population with kin-association affecting feeding ground preference and (2) two populations with feeding ground preference for either area 1W or area 2. An estimated dispersal rate between areas 1W and 2 indicates that both scenarios should be considered as a precautionary principle in stock assessments.
Portal Wissen = Excellence
(2023)
When something is not just good or very good, we often call it excellent. But what does that really mean? Coming from the Latin word “excellere,” it describes things, persons, or actions that are outstanding or superior and distinguish themselves from others. It cannot get any better. Excellence is the top choice for being the first or the best. Research is no exception.
At the university, you will find numerous exceptional researchers, outstanding projects, and, time and again, sensational findings, publications, and results. But is the University of Potsdam also excellent? A question that will certainly create a different stir in 2023 than it did perhaps 20 years ago. Since the launch of the Excellence Initiative in 2005, universities that succeed in winning the most comprehensive funding program for research in Germany have been considered – literally – excellent. Whether in the form of graduate schools, research clusters, or – since the program was continued in 2019 under the title “Excellence Strategy” – entire universities of excellence: Anyone who wants to be among the best research universities needs the seal of excellence.
The University of Potsdam is applying for funding with three cluster proposals in the recently launched new round of the “Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments.” One proposal comes from ecology and biodiversity research. The aim is to paint a comprehensive picture of ecological processes by examining the role of single individuals as well as the interactions among many species in an ecosystem to precisely determine the function of biodiversity. A second proposal has been submitted by the cognitive sciences. Here, the complex coexistence of language and cognition, development and learning, as well as motivation and behavior will be researched as a dynamic interrelation. The projects will include cooperation with the educational sciences to constantly consider linked learning and educational processes. The third proposal from the geo and environmental sciences concentrates on extreme and particularly devastating natural hazards and processes such as floods and droughts. The researchers examine these extreme events, focusing on their interaction with society, to be able to better assess the risks and damages they might involve and to initiate timely measures in the future.
“All three proposals highlight the excellence of our performance,” emphasizes University President Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. “The outlines impressively document our commitment, existing research excellence, and the potential of the University of Potsdam as a whole. The fact that three powerful consortia have come together in different subject areas shows that we have taken a good step forward on our way to becoming one of the top German universities.”
In this issue, we are looking at what is in and behind these proposals: We talked to the researchers who wrote them. We asked them about their plans in case their proposals are successful and they bring a cluster of excellence to the university. But we also looked at the research that has led to the proposals, has long shaped the university’s profile, and earned it national and international recognition. We present a small selection of projects, methods, and researchers to illustrate why there really is excellent research in these proposals!
By the way, “excellence” is also not the end of the flagpole. After all, the adjective “excellent” even has a comparative and a superlative. With this in mind, I wish you the most excellent pleasure reading this issue!
Portal Wissen = Learning
(2023)
Changing through learning is one of the most important characteristics we humans have. We are born and can – it seems – do nothing. We have to comprehend, copy, and acquire everything: grasping and walking, eating and speaking. Of course, we also have to read and do number work. In the meantime, we know: We will never be able to finish this. At best, we learn for a lifetime. If we stop, it harms us. The Greek philosopher Plato said more than 2,400 years ago, “There is no shame in not knowing something. The shame is in not being willing to learn.”
As humans we are also capable of learning; thanks to more and more knowledge about the world around us, we have moved from the Stone Age into the digital age. That this development is not a finish line either, but that we still have a long way to go, is shown by man-made climate change – and above all by our inability as a global community to translate what research teaches us into appropriate actions. Let us dare to hope that we also comprehend this.
What we tend to ignore in the intensive discussion about the multi-layered levels of learning: We are by no means the only learners. Many, if not all, living beings on our planet learn, some more in a more purposeful and complex and more cognitive way than others. And for some time now, machines have also been able to learn more or less independently. Artificial intelligence sends its regards.
The significance of learning for human beings can hardly be overestimated. Science has also understood this and has discovered the learning processes and conditions in almost all contexts for itself, no matter whether it is about our own learning processes and conditions or those around us. We have investigated some of these for the current issue of “Portal Wissen”.
Psycholinguist Natalie Boll-Avetisyan has developed a box that can be used to detect language learning disorders already in young children. The behavioral biologists Jana Eccard and Valeria Mazza investigated the behavior of small rodents and found out that they do not only develop different personality traits but they also described how they learn to adapt them different environmental conditions. Computer linguist David Schlangen examines the question what machines have to learn so that our communication with them works even better.
Since research is ultimately always a learning process that strives to understand something yet unknown, this time all texts are somehow along the motto of the title theme: It is about what the history of past centuries reveals about “military cultures of violence” and the question of what lessons we should learn from natural hazards for the future.
We talked with a legal scholar who looks beyond the university’s backyard and wants to make law comprehensible to everyone. We also talked with a philosopher who analyzes why “having an opinion” means something different today than 100 years ago. We report about an AI-based genome analysis that can change healthcare sustainably. Furthermore, it is about the job profile “YouTuber”, minor cosmopolitanisms, and wildlife management in Africa. When you have finished reading, you will have learnt something. Promised! Enjoy your read!
Thermal electrons have gyroradii many orders of magnitude smaller than the finite width of a shock, thus need to be pre-accelerated before they can cross it and be accelerated by diffusive shock acceleration. One region where pre-acceleration may occur is the inner foreshock, which upstream electrons must pass through before any potential downstream crossing. In this paper, we perform a large-scale particle-in-cell simulation that generates a single shock with parameters motivated from supernova remnants. Within the foreshock, reflected electrons excite the oblique whistler instability and produce electromagnetic whistler waves, which comove with the upstream flow and as nonlinear structures eventually reach radii of up to 5 ion-gyroradii. We show that the inner electromagnetic configuration of the whistlers evolves into complex nonlinear structures bound by a strong magnetic field around four times the upstream value. Although these nonlinear structures do not in general interact with cospatial upstream electrons, they resonate with electrons that have been reflected at the shock. We show that they can scatter, or even trap, reflected electrons, confining around 0.8% of the total upstream electron population to the region close to the shock where they can undergo substantial pre-acceleration. This acceleration process is similar to, yet approximately three times more efficient than, stochastic shock drift acceleration.
Academia-industry collaborations are beneficial when both sides bring strengths to the partnership and the collaboration outcome is of mutual benefit. These types of collaboration projects are seen as a low-risk learning opportunity for both parties. In this paper, government initiatives that can change the business landscape and academia-industry collaborations that can provide upskilling opportunities to fill emerging business needs are discussed. In light of Japan’s push for next-level modernization, a Japanese software company took a positive stance towards building new capabilities outside what it had been offering its customers. Consequently, an academic research group is laying out infrastructure for learning analytics research. An existing learning analytics dashboard was modularized to allow the research group to focus on natural language processing experiments while the software company explores a development framework suitable for data visualization techniques and artificial intelligence development. The results of this endeavor demonstrate that companies working with academia can creatively explore collaborations outside typical university-supported avenues.
With the growing number of online learning resources, it becomes increasingly difficult and overwhelming to keep track of the latest developments and to find orientation in the plethora of offers. AI-driven services to recommend standalone learning resources or even complete learning paths are discussed as a possible solution for this challenge. To function properly, such services require a well-defined set of metadata provided by the learning resource. During the last few years, the so-called MOOChub metadata format has been established as a de-facto standard by a group of MOOC providers in German-speaking countries. This format, which is based on schema.org, already delivers a quite comprehensive set of metadata. So far, this set has been sufficient to list, display, sort, filter, and search for courses on several MOOC and open educational resources (OER) aggregators. AI recommendation services and further automated integration, beyond a plain listing, have special requirements, however. To optimize the format for proper support of such systems, several extensions and modifications have to be applied. We herein report on a set of suggested changes to prepare the format for this task.
Digital transformation fundamentally changes the way individuals conduct work in organisations. In accordance with this statement, prevalent literature understands digital workplace transformation as a second-order effect of implementing new information technology to increase organisational effectiveness or reach other strategic goals. This paper, in contrast, provides empirical evidence from two remote-first organisations that undergo a proactive rather than reactive digital workplace transformation. The analysis of these cases suggests that new ways of working can be the consequence of an identity change that is a precondition for introducing new information technology rather than its outcome. The resulting process model contributes a competing argument to the existing debate in digital transformation literature. Instead of issuing digital workplace transformation as a deliverable of technological progress and strategic goals, this paper supports a notion of digital workplace transformation that serves a desired identity based on work preferences.
The massive growth of MOOCs in 2011 laid the groundwork for the achievement of SDG 4. With the various benefits of MOOCs, there is also anticipation that online education should focus on more interactivity and global collaboration. In this context, the Global MOOC and Online Education Alliance (GMA) established a diverse group of 17 world-leading universities and three online education platforms from across 14 countries on all six continents in 2020. Through nearly three years of exploration, GMA has gained experience and achieved progress in fostering global cooperation in higher education. First, in joint teaching, GMA has promoted in-depth cooperation between members inside and outside the alliance. Examples include promoting the exchange of high-quality MOOCs, encouraging the creation of Global Hybrid Classroom, and launching Global Hybrid Classroom Certificate Programs. Second, in capacity building and knowledge sharing, GMA has launched Online Education Dialogues and the Global MOOC and Online Education Conference, inviting global experts to share best practices and attracting more than 10 million viewers around the world. Moreover, GMA is collaborating with international organizations to support teachers’ professional growth, create an online learning community, and serve as a resource for further development. Third, in public advocacy, GMA has launched the SDG Hackathon and Global Massive Open Online Challenge (GMOOC) and attracted global learners to acquire knowledge and incubate their innovative ideas within a cross-cultural community to solve real-world problems that all humans face and jointly create a better future. Based on past experiences and challenges, GMA will explore more diverse cooperation models with more partners utilizing advanced technology, provide more support for digital transformation in higher education, and further promote global cooperation towards building a human community with a shared future.
Metabolic engineering of microalgae offers a promising solution for sustainable biofuel production, and rational design of engineering strategies can be improved by employing metabolic models that integrate enzyme turnover numbers. However, the coverage of turnover numbers for Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, a model eukaryotic microalga accessible to metabolic engineering, is 17-fold smaller compared to the heterotrophic cell factory Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Here we generate quantitative protein abundance data of Chlamydomonas covering 2337 to 3708 proteins in various growth conditions to estimate in vivo maximum apparent turnover numbers. Using constrained-based modeling we provide proxies for in vivo turnover numbers of 568 reactions, representing a 10-fold increase over the in vitro data for Chlamydomonas. Integration of the in vivo estimates instead of in vitro values in a metabolic model of Chlamydomonas improved the accuracy of enzyme usage predictions. Our results help in extending the knowledge on uncharacterized enzymes and improve biotechnological applications of Chlamydomonas.
PyFin-sentiment
(2023)
Responding to the poor performance of generic automated sentiment analysis solutions on domain-specific texts, we collect a dataset of 10,000 tweets discussing the topics of finance and investing. We manually assign each tweet its market sentiment, i.e., the investor’s anticipation of a stock’s future return. Using this data, we show that all existing sentiment models trained on adjacent domains struggle with accurate market sentiment analysis due to the task’s specialized vocabulary. Consequently, we design, train, and deploy our own sentiment model. It outperforms all previous models (VADER, NTUSD-Fin, FinBERT, TwitterRoBERTa) when evaluated on Twitter posts. On posts from a different platform, our model performs on par with BERT-based large language models. We achieve this result at a fraction of the training and inference costs due to the model’s simple design. We publish the artifact as a python library to facilitate its use by future researchers and practitioners.
Knowledge on the response of sediment export to recent climate change in glacierized areas in the European Alps is limited, primarily because long-term records of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) are scarce. Here we tested the estimation of sediment export of the past five decades using quantile regression forest (QRF), a nonparametric, multivariate regression based on random forest. The regression builds on short-term records of SSCs and long records of the most important hydroclimatic drivers (discharge, precipitation and air temperature - QPT). We trained independent models for two nested and partially glacier-covered catchments, Vent (98 km(2)) and Vernagt (11.4 km(2)), in the upper otztal in Tyrol, Austria (1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), where available QPT records start in 1967 and 1975. To assess temporal extrapolation ability, we used two 2-year SSC datasets at gauge Vernagt, which are almost 20 years apart, for a validation. For Vent, we performed a five-fold cross-validation on the 15 years of SSC measurements. Further, we quantified the number of days where predictors exceeded the range represented in the training dataset, as the inability to extrapolate beyond this range is a known limitation of QRF. Finally, we compared QRF performance to sediment rating curves (SRCs). We analyzed the modeled sediment export time series, the predictors and glacier mass balance data for trends (Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator) and step-like changes (using the widely applied Pettitt test and a complementary Bayesian approach).Our validation at gauge Vernagt demonstrated that QRF performs well in estimating past daily sediment export (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73) and satisfactorily for SSCs (NSE of 0.51), despite the small training dataset. The temporal extrapolation ability of QRF was superior to SRCs, especially in periods with high-SSC events, which demonstrated the ability of QRF to model threshold effects. Days with high SSCs tended to be underestimated, but the effect on annual yields was small. Days with predictor exceedances were rare, indicating a good representativity of the training dataset. Finally, the QRF reconstruction models outperformed SRCs by about 20 percent points of the explained variance.Significant positive trends in the reconstructed annual suspended sediment yields were found at both gauges, with distinct step-like increases around 1981. This was linked to increased glacier melt, which became apparent through step-like increases in discharge at both gauges as well as change points in mass balances of the two largest glaciers in the Vent catchment. We identified exceptionally high July temperatures in 1982 and 1983 as a likely cause. In contrast, we did not find coinciding change points in precipitation. Opposing trends at the two gauges after 1981 suggest different timings of "peak sediment". We conclude that, given large-enough training datasets, the presented QRF approach is a promising tool with the ability to deepen our understanding of the response of high-alpine areas to decadal climate change.
Progressive habitat fragmentation threatens plant species with narrow habitat requirements. While local environmental conditions define population growth rates and recruitment success at the patch level, dispersal is critical for population viability at the landscape scale. Identifying the dynamics of plant meta-populations is often confounded by the uncertainty about soil-stored population compartments. We combined a landscape-scale assessment of an amphibious plant's population structure with measurements of dispersal complexity in time to track dispersal and putative shifts in functional connectivity. Using 13 microsatellite markers, we analyzed the genetic structure of extant Oenanthe aquatica populations and their soil seed banks in a kettle hole system to uncover hidden connectivity among populations in time and space. Considerable spatial genetic structure and isolation-by-distance suggest limited gene flow between sites. Spatial isolation and patch size showed minor effects on genetic diversity. Genetic similarity found among extant populations and their seed banks suggests increased local recruitment, despite some evidence of migration and recent colonization. Results indicate stepping-stone dispersal across adjacent populations. Among permanent and ephemeral demes the resulting meta-population demography could be determined by source-sink dynamics. Overall, these spatiotemporal connectivity patterns support mainland-island dynamics in our system, highlighting the importance of persistent seed banks as enduring sources of genetic diversity.
Background: Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys.
Objective: We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
Methods: Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 178 migration experts, we compare variation and subjective confidence in expert predictions and assess whether additional context information (type of migration flow, sociopolitical context) promotes convergence among experts (i.e., less variation) and confidence in their own estimates.
Results: We find that additional context information does not reduce variation and does not increase confidence in expert predictions on migration.
Conclusions: The results reaffirm recent concerns regarding the limited scope for reducing uncertainty by manipulating the survey setup. Persistent uncertainty may be a result of the complexity of migration processes and limited agreement among migration experts regarding key drivers.
Contribution: We caution policymakers and academics on the use of Delphi surveys for eliciting expert predictions on immigration, even when conducted based on a large pool of experts and using specific scenarios. The potential of alternative approaches such as prediction markets should be further explored.
In this paper we consider surfaces which are critical points of the Willmore functional subject to constrained area.
In the case of small area we calculate the corrections to the intrinsic geometry induced by the ambient curvature.
These estimates together with the choice of an adapted geometric center of mass lead to refined position estimates in relation to the scalar curvature of the ambient manifold.
Perception of peripersonal space (PPS) and interpersonal distance (IPD) has been shown to be modified by external factors such as perceived danger, the use of tools, and social factors. Especially in times of social distancing in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is vital to study factors that modify PPS and IPD. The present work addresses the question of whether wearing a face mask as a protection tool and social interaction impact the perception of IPD. We tested estimated IPD in pictures at three distances: 50 cm, 90 cm, and 150 cm in both social interaction (shaking hands) and without interaction and when the two people in the pictures wore a face mask or not. Data from 60 subjects were analyzed in a linear mixed model (on both difference in distance estimation to the depicted distance and in absolute distance estimation) and in a 3 (distance: 50, 90, 150) x 2 (interaction: no interaction, shake hands), x 2 face mask (no mask, mask) rmANOVA on distance estimation difference. All analyses showed that at a distance of 50 and 90 cm, participants generally underestimated the IPD while at an IPD of 150 cm, participants overestimated the distance. This could be grounded in perceived danger and avoidance behavior at closer distances, while the wider distance between persons was not perceived as dangerous. Our findings at an IPD of 90 cm show that social interaction has the largest effect at the border of our PPS, while the face mask did not affect social interaction at either distance. In addition, the ANOVA results indicate that when no social interaction was displayed, participants felt less unsafe when depicted persons wore a face mask at distances of 90 and 150 cm. This shows that participants are on the one hand aware of the given safety measures and internalized them; on the other hand, that refraining from physical social interaction helps to get close to other persons.
Many widely used observational data sets are comprised of several overlapping instrument records. While data inter-calibration techniques often yield continuous and reliable data for trend analysis, less attention is generally paid to maintaining higher-order statistics such as variance and autocorrelation. A growing body of work uses these metrics to quantify the stability or resilience of a system under study and potentially to anticipate an approaching critical transition in the system. Exploring the degree to which changes in resilience indicators such as the variance or autocorrelation can be attributed to non-stationary characteristics of the measurement process – rather than actual changes in the dynamical properties of the system – is important in this context. In this work we use both synthetic and empirical data to explore how changes in the noise structure of a data set are propagated into the commonly used resilience metrics lag-one autocorrelation and variance. We focus on examples from remotely sensed vegetation indicators such as vegetation optical depth and the normalized difference vegetation index from different satellite sources. We find that time series resulting from mixing signals from sensors with varied uncertainties and covering overlapping time spans can lead to biases in inferred resilience changes. These biases are typically more pronounced when resilience metrics are aggregated (for example, by land-cover type or region), whereas estimates for individual time series remain reliable at reasonable sensor signal-to-noise ratios. Our work provides guidelines for the treatment and aggregation of multi-instrument data in studies of critical transitions and resilience.
Reliability of the active knee joint position sense test and influence of limb dominance and sex
(2023)
The output of a sensorimotor performance can be measured with the joint position sense (JPS) test. However, investigations of leg dominance, sex and quality measures on this test are limited. Therefore, these potential influencing factors as well as reliability and consistency measures were evaluated for angular reproduction performance and neuromuscular activity during the active knee JPS test in healthy participants. Twenty healthy participants (10 males; 10 females; age 29 +/- 8 years; height 165 +/- 39 cm; body mass 69 +/- 13 kg) performed a seated knee JPS test with a target angle of 50 degrees. Measurements were conducted in two sessions separated by two weeks and consisted of two blocks of continuous angular reproduction (three minutes each block). The difference between reproduced and target angle was identified as angular error measured by an electrogoniometer. During reproduction, the neuromuscular activity of the quadriceps muscle was assessed by surface electromyography. Neuromuscular activity was normalized to submaximal voluntary contraction (subMVC) and displayed per muscle and movement phase. Differences between leg dominance and sex were calculated using Friedman-test (alpha = 0.05). Reliability measures including intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Bland-Altman analysis (bias +/- limits of agreement (LoA)) and minimal detectable change (MDC) were analysed. No significant differences between leg dominance and sex were found in angular error and neuromuscular activity. Angular error demonstrated inter-session ICC scores of 0.424 with a bias of 2.4 degrees (+/- 2.4 degrees LoA) as well as MDC of 6.8 degrees and moderate intra-session ICC (0.723) with a bias of 1.4 degrees (+/- 1.65 degrees LoA) as well as MDC of 4.7 degrees. Neuromuscular activity for all muscles and movement phases illustrated inter-session ICC ranging from 0.432 to 0.809 with biases between - 2.5 and 13.6% subMVC and MDC from 13.4 to 63.9% subMVC. Intra-session ICC ranged from 0.705 to 0.987 with biases of - 7.7 to 2.4% subMVC and MDC of 2.7 to 46.5% subMVC. Leg dominance and sex seem not to influence angular reproduction performance and neuromuscular activity. Poor to excellent relative reliability paired with an acceptable consistency confirm findings of previous studies. Comparisons to pathological populations should be conducted with caution.
The Adaptive Force (AF) reflects the neuromuscular capacity to adapt to external loads during holding muscle actions and is similar to motions in real life and sports. The maximal isometric AF (AFisoₘₐₓ) was considered to be the most relevant parameter and was assumed to have major importance regarding injury mechanisms and the development of musculoskeletal pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the behavior of different torque parameters over the course of 30 repeated maximal AF trials. In addition, maximal holding vs. maximal pushing isometric muscle actions were compared. A side consideration was the behavior of torques in the course of repeated AF actions when comparing strength and endurance athletes. The elbow flexors of n = 12 males (six strength/six endurance athletes, non-professionals) were measured 30 times (120 s rest) using a pneumatic device. Maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC) was measured pre and post. MVIC, AFisoₘₐₓ, and AFₘₐₓ (maximal torque of one AF measurement) were evaluated regarding different considerations and statistical tests. AFₘₐₓ and AFisoₘₐₓ declined in the course of 30 trials [slope regression (mean ± standard deviation): AFₘₐₓ = −0.323 ± 0.263; AFisoₘₐₓ = −0.45 ± 0.45]. The decline from start to end amounted to −12.8% ± 8.3% (p < 0.001) for AFₘₐₓ and −25.41% ± 26.40% (p < 0.001) for AFisoₘₐₓ. AF parameters declined more in strength vs. endurance athletes. Thereby, strength athletes showed a rather stable decline for AFmax and a plateau formation for AFisoₘₐₓ after 15 trials. In contrast, endurance athletes reduced their AFₘₐₓ, especially after the first five trials, and remained on a rather similar level for AFisomax. The maximum of AFisoₘₐₓ of all 30 trials amounted 67.67% ± 13.60% of MVIC (p < 0.001, n = 12), supporting the hypothesis of two types of isometric muscle action (holding vs. pushing). The findings provided the first data on the behavior of torque parameters after repeated isometric–eccentric actions and revealed further insights into neuromuscular control strategies. Additionally, they highlight the importance of investigating AF parameters in athletes based on the different behaviors compared to MVIC. This is assumed to be especially relevant regarding injury mechanisms.
Reply and Counter-Reply
(2023)
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used for a wide range of applications in astronomy, including for the restoration of degraded images using a spatially invariant point spread function (PSF) across the field of view. Most existing development techniques use a single PSF in the deconvolution process, which is unrealistic when spatially variable PSFs are present in real observation conditions. Such conditions are simulated in this work to yield more realistic data samples. We propose a method that uses a simulated spatially variable PSF for the T80-South (T80-S) telescope, an 80-cm survey imager at Cerro Tololo (Chile). The synthetic data use real parameters from the detector noise and atmospheric seeing to recreate the T80-S observational conditions for the CNN training. The method is tested on real astronomical data from the T80-S telescope. We present the simulation and training methods, the results from real T80-S image CNN prediction, and a comparison with space observatory Gaia. A CNN can fix optical aberrations, which include image distortion, PSF size and profile, and the field position variation while preserving the source's flux. The proposed restoration approach can be applied to other optical systems and to post-process adaptive optics static residual aberrations in large-diameter telescopes.
Resurrecting the Argo
(2023)
This paper analyses the relationship between the figure of the Argo (ship and character) and the supernatural in the mythic fantasy of Robert Holdstock’s Merlin Codex. It shows how Holdstock’s re-writing of the Argonautica draws on various versions from the Argonautic tradition, including Euripides’ Medea, Apollonius, Valerius Flaccus, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Henry Treece and the 1963 film Jason and the Argonauts. It sets Holdstock’s Argo alongside other representations, as divine herself, possessed by divinity, and a channel of communication with the divine, and in the context of Holdstock’s previous work, particularly Mythago Wood, Lavondyss and Merlin’s Wood. The paper argues that Holdstock uses the Argo as a reflection of myth itself, a version of the forest in Mythago Wood, as well as a metapoetic image for the challenges and complexities of adapting a well-known story, bringing multiple mythological traditions (Arthurian, Finnish and Argonautic) together. It reflects on Holdstock’s relationship to the ancient genres of epic and tragedy, as well as Argo as plot facilitator and mechanism of transformation and transition. Holdstock’s relationship with ancient literature is richer and deeper than previously acknowledged; his self-conscious plays reveal a deep understanding of the polymorphous nature of mythical traditions.
Review symposium
(2023)
Steffen Ganghof’s Beyond Presidentialism and Parliamentarism: Democratic Design and the Separation of Powers (Oxford University Press, 2021) posits that “in a democracy, a constitutional separation of powers between the executive and the assembly may be desirable, but the constitutional concentration of executive power in a single human being is not” (Ganghof, 2021). To consider, examine and theorise about this, Ganghof urges engagement with semi-parliamentarism. As explained by Ganghof, legislative power is shared between two democratically legitimate sections of parliament in a semi-parliamentary system, but only one of those sections selects the government and can remove it in a no-confidence vote. Consequently, power is dispersed and not concentrated in the hands of any one person, which, Ganghof argues, can lead to an enhanced form of parliamentary democracy. In this book review symposium, George Tsebelis, Michael Thies, José Antonio Cheibub, Rosalind Dixon and Daniel Bogéa review Steffen Ganghof’s book and engage with the author about aspects of research design, case selection and theoretical argument. This symposium arose from an engaging and constructive discussion of the book at a seminar hosted by Texas A&M University in 2022. We thank Prof José Cheibub (Texas A&M) for organising that seminar and Dr Anna Fruhstorfer (University of Potsdam) for initiating this book review symposium.
Introduction Climbing is an increasingly popular activity and imposes specific physiological demands on the human body, which results in unique injury presentations. Of particular concern are overuse injuries (non-traumatic injuries). These injuries tend to present in the upper body and might be preventable with adequate knowledge of risk factors which could inform about injury prevention strategies. Research in this area has recently emerged but has yet to be synthesized comprehensively. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the potential risk factors and injury prevention strategies for overuse injuries in adult climbers.
Methods This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. Databases were searched systematically, and articles were deemed eligible based upon specific criteria. Research included was original and peer-reviewed, involving climbers, and published in English, German or Czech. Outcomes included overuse injury, and at least one or more variable indicating potential risk factors or injury prevention strategies. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed with the Downs and Black Quality Index. Data were extracted from included studies and reported descriptively for population, climbing sport type, study design, injury definition and incidence/prevalence, risk factors, and injury prevention strategies.
Results Out of 1,183 records, a total of 34 studies were included in the final analysis. Higher climbing intensity, bouldering, reduced grip/finger strength, use of a “crimp” grip, and previous injury were associated with an increased risk of overuse injury. Additionally, a strength training intervention prevented shoulder and elbow injuries. BMI/body weight, warm up/cool downs, stretching, taping and hydration were not associated with risk of overuse injury. The evidence for the risk factors of training volume, age/years of climbing experience, and sex was conflicting.
Discussion This review presents several risk factors which appear to increase the risk of overuse injury in climbers. Strength and conditioning, load management, and climbing technique could be targeted in injury prevention programs, to enhance the health and wellbeing of climbing athletes. Further research is required to investigate the conflicting findings reported across included studies, and to investigate the effectiveness of injury prevention programs.
Systematic Review Registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/, PROSPERO (CRD42023404031).
Risk perceptions of individuals living in single-parent households during the COVID-19 crisis
(2023)
The COVID-19 crisis had severe social and economic impact on the life of most citizens around the globe. Individuals living in single-parent households were particularly at risk, revealing detrimental labour market outcomes and assessments of future perspectives marked by worries. As it has not been investigated yet, in this paper we study, how their perception about the future and their outlook on how the pandemic will affect them is related to their objective economic resources. Against this background, we examine the subjective risk perception of worsening living standards of individuals living in single-parent households compared to other household types, their objective economic situation based on the logarithmised equivalised disposable household incomes and analyse the relationship between those indicators. Using the German SOEP, including the SOEP-CoV survey from 2020, our findings based on regression modelling reveal that individuals living in single-parent households have been worse off during the pandemic, facing high economic insecurity. Path and interaction models support our assumption that the association between those indicators may not be that straightforward, as there are underlying mechanisms–such as mediation and moderation–of income affecting its direction and strength. With respect to our central hypotheses, our empirical findings point toward (1) a mediation effect, by demonstrating that the subjective risk perception of single-parent households can be partly explained by economic conditions. (2) The moderating effect suggests that the concrete position at the income distribution of households matters as well. While at the lower end of the income distribution, single-parent households reveal particularly worse risk perceptions during the pandemic, at the high end of the income spectrum, risk perceptions are similar for all household types. Thus, individuals living in single-parent households do not perceive higher risks of worsening living standards due to their household situation per se, but rather because they are worse off in terms of their economic situation compared to individuals living in other household types.
This research paper provides an overview of the current state of MOOCs (massive open online courses) and universities in Austria, focusing on the national MOOC platform iMooX.at. The study begins by presenting the results of an analysis of the performance agreements of 22 Austrian public universities for the period 2022–2024, with a specific focus on the mention of MOOC activities and iMooX. The authors find that 12 of 22 (55 %) Austrian public universities use at least one of these terms, indicating a growing interest in MOOCs and online learning. Additionally, the authors analyze internal documentation data to share insights into how many universities in Austria have produced and/or used a MOOC on the iMooX platform since its launch in 2014. These findings provide a valuable measure of the current usage and monitoring of MOOCs and iMooX among Austrian higher education institutions. Overall, this research contributes to a better understanding of the current state of MOOCs and their integration within Austrian higher education.
State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.
The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.
Self-efficacy reflects the self-belief that one can persistently perform difficult and novel tasks while coping with adversity. As such beliefs reflect how individuals behave, think, and act, they are key for successful entrepreneurial activities. While existing literature mainly analyzes the influence of the task-related construct of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we take a different perspective and investigate, based on a representative sample of 1,405 German business founders, how the personality characteristic of generalized self-efficacy influences start-up performance as measured by a broad set of business outcomes up to 19 months after business creation. Outcomes include start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, as well as growth-oriented outcomes such as job creation and innovation. We find statistically significant and economically important positive effects of high scores of self-efficacy on start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, which become even stronger when focusing on the growth-oriented outcome of innovation. Furthermore, we observe that generalized self-efficacy is similarly distributed between female and male business founders, with effects being partly stronger for female entrepreneurs. Our findings are important for policy instruments that are meant to support firm growth by facilitating the design of more target-oriented offers for training, coaching, and entrepreneurial incubators.
Background
Self-regulation (SR) as the ability to regulate one's own physical state, emotions, cognitions, and behavior, is considered to play a pivotal role in the concurrent and subsequent mental and physical health of an individual. Although SR skills encompass numerous sub-facets, previous research has often focused on only one or a few of these sub-facets, and only rarely on adolescence. Therefore, little is known about the development of the sub-facets, their interplay, and their specific contributions to future developmental outcomes, particularly in adolescence. To fill these research gaps, this study aims to prospectively examine (1) the development of SR and (2) their influence on adolescent-specific developmental outcomes in a large community sample.
Methods/design
Based on previously collected data from the Potsdam Intrapersonal Developmental Risk (PIER) study with three measurement points, the present prospective, longitudinal study aims to add a fourth measurement point (PIERYOUTH). We aim to retain at least 1074 participants now between 16 and 23 years of the initially 1657 participants (6-11 years of age at the first measurement point in 2012/2013; 52.2% female). The study will continue to follow a multi-method (questionnaires, physiological assessments, performance-based computer tasks), multi-facet (assessing various domains of SR), and multi-rater (self-, parent-, and teacher-report) approach. In addition, a broad range of adolescent-specific developmental outcomes is considered. In doing so, we will cover the development of SR and relevant outcomes over the period of 10 years. In addition, we intend to conduct a fifth measurement point (given prolonged funding) to investigate development up to young adulthood.
Discussion
With its broad and multimethodological approach, PIERYOUTH aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the development and role of various SR sub-facets from middle childhood to adolescence. The large sample size and low drop-out rates in the first three measurements points form a sound database for our present prospective research.Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register, registration number DRKS00030847.
Purpose
Given inconsistent results in prior studies, this paper applies the dual process theory to investigate what social media messages yield audience engagement during a political event. It tests how affective cues (emotional valence, intensity and collective self-representation) and cognitive cues (insight, causation, certainty and discrepancy) contribute to public engagement.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors created a dataset of more than three million tweets during the 2020 United States (US) presidential elections. Affective and cognitive cues were assessed via sentiment analysis. The hypotheses were tested in negative binomial regressions. The authors also scrutinized a subsample of far-famed Twitter users. The final dataset, scraping code, preprocessing and analysis are available in an open repository.
Findings
The authors found the prominence of both affective and cognitive cues. For the overall sample, negativity bias was registered, and the tweet’s emotionality was negatively related to engagement. In contrast, in the sub-sample of tweets from famous users, emotionally charged content produced higher engagement. The role of sentiment decreases when the number of followers grows and ultimately becomes insignificant for Twitter participants with many followers. Collective self-representation (“we-talk”) is consistently associated with more likes, comments and retweets in the overall sample and subsamples.
Originality/value
The authors expand the dominating one-sided perspective to social media message processing focused on the peripheral route and hence affective cues. Leaning on the dual process theory, the authors shed light on the effectiveness of both affective (peripheral route) and cognitive (central route) cues on information appeal and dissemination on Twitter during a political event. The popularity of the tweet’s author moderates these relationships.
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify daily ERA5 fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using an array of 13 statistical methods, consisting of 4 conventional (“shallow”) and 9 more recent deep machine learning (DL) algorithms; the classifiers are then applied to corresponding fields of
simulated present and future atmospheres from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The inherent uncertainty of the DL results from the stochastic nature of their optimization is addressed by employing an ensemble approach using 20 runs for each network. The shallow random forest method performs best with an equitable threat score (ETS) around 0.52, followed by the DL networks ALL-CNN and ResNet with an ETS near 0.48. Their success can be understood as a result of conceptual simplicity and parametric parsimony, which obviously best fits the relatively simple classification task. It is found that, on summer days, CatRaRE convective atmospheres over Germany occur with a probability of about 0.5. This probability is projected to increase, regardless of method, both in ERA5-reanalyzed and CORDEX-simulated atmospheres: for the historical period we find a centennial increase of about 0.2 and for the future period one of slightly below 0.1.
Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
Spatial and temporal variation in perceived predation risk is an important determinant of movement and foraging activity of animals. Foraging in this landscape of fear, individuals need to decide where and when to move, and what resources to choose. Foraging theory predicts the outcome of these decisions based on energetic trade-offs, but complex interactions between perceived predation risk and preferences of foragers for certain functional traits of their resources are rarely considered. Here, we studied the interactive effects of perceived predation risk on food trait preferences and foraging behavior in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in experimental landscapes. Individuals (n = 19) were subjected for periods of 24 h to two extreme, risk-uniform landscapes (either risky or safe), containing 25 discrete food patches, filled with seeds of four plant species in even amounts. Seeds varied in functional traits: size, nutrients, and shape. We evaluated whether and how risk modifies forager preference for functional traits. We also investigated whether perceived risk and distance from shelter affected giving-up density (GUD), time in patches, and number of patch visits. In safe landscapes, individuals increased time spent in patches, lowered GUD and visited distant patches more often compared to risky landscapes. Individuals preferred bigger seeds independent of risk, but in the safe treatment they preferred fat-rich over carb-rich seeds. Thus, higher densities of resource levels remained in risky landscapes, while in safe landscapes resource density was lower and less diverse due to selective foraging. Our results suggest that the interaction of perceived risk and dietary preference adds an additional layer to the cascading effects of a landscape of fear which affects biodiversity at resource level.
Strategic social media use positively influences organizational goals such as the long-term accrual of social capital, and thus social media information governance has become an increasingly important organizational objective. It is particularly important for humanitarian nongovernmental organizations (HNGOs), whose work relies on accurate and timely information regarding socially altruistic behavior (donations, volunteerism, etc.). Despite the potential of social media for increasing social capital, tensions in governing social media information across an organization's different operational levels (regional, intermediate, and national) pose a difficult challenge. Prominent governance frameworks offer little guidance, as their focus on control and incremental policymaking is largely incompatible with the processes, roles, standards, and metrics needed for managing self-governing social media. This study offers a notion of dynamic and co-evolutionary process management of multi-level organizations as a means of conceptualizing social media information governance for the accrual of organizational social capital. Based on interviews with members of HNGOs, this study reveals tensions that emerge within eight focus areas of accruing social capital in multi-level organizations, explains how dynamic process management can ease those tensions, and proposes corresponding strategy recommendations.
SOEP-LEE2
(2023)
This article presents the new linked employee-employer study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-LEE2), which offers new research opportunities for various academic fields. In particular, the study contains two waves of an employer survey for persons in dependent work that is also linkable to the SOEP, a large representative German annual household panel (SOEP-LEE2-Core). Moreover, SOEP-LEE2 includes two waves of self-employed surveys based on self-employed in the SOEP-Core (SOEP-LEE2-Self-employed) and three additional representative employer surveys, independent of the SOEP in terms of sampling employers (SOEP-LEE2-Compare). Survey topics include digitalisation and cybersecurity, human capital formation, COVID-19, and human resource management. Here, we describe the content, survey design, and comparability of the different datasets in the SOEP-LEE2 to potential users in different disciplines of research.
This paper deals with the long-term behavior of positive operator semigroups on spaces of bounded functions and of signed measures, which have applications to parabolic equations with unbounded coefficients and to stochas-tic analysis. The main results are a Tauberian type theorem characterizing the convergence to equilibrium of strongly Feller semigroups and a generalization of a classical convergence theorem of Doob. None of these results requires any kind of time regularity of the semigroup.
Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.
Many geophysical inverse problems are known to be ill-posed and, thus, requiring some kind of regularization in order to provide a unique and stable solution. A possible approach to overcome the inversion ill-posedness consists in constraining the position of the model interfaces. For a grid-based parameterization, such a structurally constrained inversion can be implemented by adopting the usual smooth regularization scheme in which the local weight of the regularization is reduced where an interface is expected. By doing so, sharp contrasts are promoted at interface locations while standard smoothness constraints keep affecting the other regions of the model. In this work, we present a structurally constrained approach and test it on the inversion of frequency-domain electromagnetic induction (FD-EMI) data using a regularization approach based on the Minimum Gradient Support stabilizer, which is capable to promote sharp transitions everywhere in the model, i.e., also in areas where no structural a prioriinformation is available. Using 1D and 2D synthetic data examples, we compare the proposed approach to a structurally constrained smooth inversion as well as to more standard (i.e., not structurally constrained) smooth and sharp inversions. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach helps in finding a better and more reliable reconstruction of the subsurface electrical conductivity distribution, including its structural characteristics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that it allows to promote sharp parameter variations in areas where no structural information are available. Lastly, we apply our structurally constrained scheme to FD-EMI field data collected at a field site in Eastern Germany to image the thickness of peat deposits along two selected profiles. In this field example, we use collocated constant offset ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data to derive structural a priori information to constrain the inversion of the FD-EMI data. The results of this case study demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed approach.