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Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380km(2)). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a no-forecast scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.
BACK PAIN: THE STUDY OF MECHANISMS AND THE TRANSLATION IN INTERVENTIONS WITHIN THE MISPEX NETWORK
(2016)
We investigated the possibility to identify motor units (MUs) with high-density surface electromyography (HDEMG) over experimental sessions in different days. 10 subjects performed submaximal knee extensions across three sessions in three days separated by one week, while EMG was recorded from the vastus medialis muscle with high-density electrode grids. The shapes of the MU action potentials (MUAPs) over multiple channels extracted from HDEMG decomposition were matched across sessions by cross-correlation. Forty and twenty percent of the MUs decomposed could be tracked across two and three sessions, respectively (average cross correlation 0.85 +/- 0.04). The estimated properties of the matched motor units were similar across the sessions. For example, mean discharge rate and recruitment thresholds were measured with an intra-class correlation coefficient (ICCs) > 0.80. These results strongly suggest that the same MUs were indeed identified across sessions. This possibility will allow monitoring changes in MU properties following interventions or during the progression of neuromuscular disorders.