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Controversy about the current state and future evolution of Himalayan glaciers has been stirred up by erroneous statements in the fourth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(1,2). Variable retreat rates(3-6) and a paucity of glacial mass-balance data(7,8) make it difficult to develop a coherent picture of regional climate-change impacts in the region. Here, we report remotely-sensed frontal changes and surface velocities from glaciers in the greater Himalaya between 2000 and 2008 that provide evidence for strong spatial variations in glacier behaviour which are linked to topography and climate. More than 65% of the monsoon-influenced glaciers that we observed are retreating, but heavily debris-covered glaciers with stagnant low-gradient terminus regions typically have stable fronts. Debris-covered glaciers are common in the rugged central Himalaya, but they are almost absent in subdued landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau, where retreat rates are higher. In contrast, more than 50% of observed glaciers in the westerlies-influenced Karakoram region in the northwestern Himalaya are advancing or stable. Our study shows that there is no uniform response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change and highlights the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier retreat, an effect that has so far been neglected in predictions of future water availability(9,10) or global sea level(11).
Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean(1,2). Indeed, dust supply to the Southern Ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40 parts per million by volume (p. p. m. v.) of the decrease (80-100 p. p. m. v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late Pleistocene glacial cycles(3-7). So far, however, the magnitude of Southern Ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of Pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. Here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the Southern Ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from ODP Site 1090, located in the Atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. The close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with Antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the Southern Ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. The extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the Antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, Southern Ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. This finding complements previous observations over late Pleistocene glacial cycles(5,8,9), providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the Southern Ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of Earth history.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls runoff formation, infiltration and partitioning of radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the experimental characterisation of near surface soil moisture patterns and their controls on runoff formation remains a challenge. This subject was one aspect of the BMBF-funded OPAQUE project (operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments). As part of that project the focus of this dissertation is on: (1) testing the methodology and feasibility of the Spatial TDR technology in producing soil moisture profiles along TDR probes, including an inversion technique of the recorded signal in heterogeneous field soils, (2) the analysis of spatial variability and temporal dynamics of soil moisture at the field scale including field experiments and hydrological modelling, (3) the application of models of different complexity for understanding soil moisture dynamics and its importance for runoff generation as well as for improving the prediction of runoff volumes. To fulfil objective 1, several laboratory experiments were conducted to understand the influence of probe rod geometry and heterogeneities in the sampling volume under different wetness conditions. This includes a detailed analysis on how these error sources affect retrieval of soil moisture profiles in soils. Concerning objective 2 a sampling strategy of two TDR clusters installed in the head water of the Wilde Weißeritz catchment (Eastern Ore Mountains, Germany) was used to investigate how well “the catchment state” can be characterised by means of distributed soil moisture data observed at the field scale. A grassland site and a forested site both located on gentle slopes were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters that consist of up to 39 TDR probes. Process understanding was gained by modelling the interaction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture with the hydrological process model CATFLOW. A field scale irrigation experiment was carried out to investigate near subsurface processes at the hillslope scale. The interactions of soil moisture and runoff formation were analysed using discharge data from three nested catchments: the Becherbach with a size of 2 km², the Rehefeld catchment (17 km²) and the superordinate Ammelsdorf catchment (49 km²). Statistical analyses including observations of pre-event runoff, soil moisture and different rainfall characteristics were employed to predict stream flow volume. On the different scales a strong correlation between the average soil moisture and the runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events could be found, which almost explains equivalent variability as the pre-event runoff. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between surface soil moisture and subsurface wetness with a hysteretic behaviour between runoff soil moisture. To fulfil objective 3 these findings were used in a generalised linear model (GLM) analysis which combines state variables describing the catchments antecedent wetness and variables describing the meteorological forcing in order to predict event runoff coefficients. GLM results were compared to simulations with the catchment model WaSiM ETH. Hereby were the model results of the GLMs always better than the simulations with WaSiM ETH. The GLM analysis indicated that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore soil moisture controls on runoff generation and can be an important link between the scales. Long term monitoring of such sites could yield valuable information for flood warning and forecasting by identifying critical soil moisture conditions for the former and providing a better representation of the initial moisture conditions for the latter.
Clearing for large-scale soy production and the displacement of cattle-breeding by soybeans are major features of land-use change in the lowland Amazon that can alter hydrologic properties of soils and the runoff generation over large areas. We measured infiltrability and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) under natural forest, pasture, and soybeans on Oxisols in a region of rapid soybean expansion in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The forest-pasture conversion reduced infiltrability from 1258 to 100 mm/h and Ksat at all depths. The pasture-soy conversion increased infiltrability from 100 to 469 mm/h (attributed to shallow disking), did not affect Ksat at 12.5 cm, but decreased Ksat at 30 cm from 122 to 80 mm/h, suggesting that soybean cultivation enhances subsoil compaction. Permeability decreased markedly with depth under forest, did not change under pasture, and averaged out at one fourth the forest value under soybeans with a similar pattern of anisotropy. Comparisons of permeability with rainfall intensities indicated that land-use change did not alter the predominantly vertical water movement within the soil. We conclude that this landscape is well buffered against land-use changes regarding near-surface hydrology, even though short-lived ponding and perched water tables may occur locally during high-intensity rainfall on pastures and under soybeans.
Secondary forests are gaining increased importance in tropical landscapes and have recently been reported to act as potential belowground carbon sinks. While economic interest in the management of secondary forests to mitigate carbon emissions is rising, the dynamics of soil carbon stocks under these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Recent studies report conflicting results concerning soil carbon trends as well as multiple confounding factors (e.g. soil type, topography and land-use history) affecting these trends. In this study, organic carbon stocks were measured in the mineral soil up to 20 cm depth of at 24 active pastures, 5-8-year-old, and 12-15-year-old secondary forest sites on former pastures. Additionally, we estimated carbon stocks under a 100-year-old secondary forest and compared them to those of nearby mature forests. Abiotic conditions in the study area were homogenous, enabling us to isolate the effect of land-use change on soil organic carbon stocks. Contrary to our expectations, soil carbon stocks in the top 10 cm did not change with young secondary forest development. Pasture soils stored 24.8 +/- 2.9 Mg ha(-1) carbon (mean +/- standard error) in the top 10 cm, and no accumulation of soil carbon was apparent during the first 15 years of secondary succession. Soil carbon stocks under 100-year-old secondary forests, averaging 43.0 +/- 7.9 Mg ha(-1) (mean +/- standard error), were clearly higher than those recorded at younger sites and approached levels of soil carbon stocks under mature forests. These data indicate that soil carbon stocks in this region of Panama are not affected by the land-use transition from pasture to young secondary regrowth. However, an increase of soil carbon storage might be possible over a longer period of time. Our results support trends observed in other tropical areas and highlight the importance of environmental conditions such as soil properties rather than land-use transitions on soil carbon dynamics. While our understanding of organic carbon dynamics in tropical soils remains limited, these results underscore the challenges of undertaking short-term reforestation projects with the expectation of increasing soil carbon sequestration.
In dieser Arbeit wird das regionale Klimamodell HIRHAM mit einer horizontalen Auflösung von 50 km und 19 vertikalen Schichten erstmals auf den asiatischen Kontinent angewendet, um die indische Monsunzirkulation unter rezenten und paläoklimatischen Bedingungen zu simulieren. Das Integrationsgebiet des Modells erstreckt sich von etwa 0ºN - 50ºN und 42ºE - 110ºE und bedeckt dabei sowohl die hohe Topographie des Himalajas und Tibet Plateaus als auch den nördlichen Indischen Ozean. Das Ziel besteht in der Beschreibung der regionalen Kopplung zwischen der Monsunzirkulation und den orographischen sowie diabatischen Antriebsmechanismen. Eine 44-jährige Modellsimulation von 1958-2001, die am seitlichen und unteren Rand von ECMWF Reanalysen (ERA40) angetrieben wird, bildet die Grundlage für die Validierung der Modellergebnisse mit Beobachtungen auf der Basis von Stations- und Gitterdatensätzen. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der atmosphärischen Zirkulation, der Temperatur und dem Niederschlag im Sommer- und Wintermonsun, wobei die Qualität des Modells sowohl in Bezug zur langfristigen und dekadischen Klimatologie als auch zur interannuellen Variabilität evaluiert wird. Im Zusammenhang mit einer realistischen Reproduktion der Modelltopographie kann für die Muster der Zirkulation und Temperatur eine gute Übereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Daten nachgewiesen werden. Der simulierte Niederschlag zeigt eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit einem hoch aufgelösten Gitterdatensatz über der Landoberfläche Zentralindiens und in den Hochgebirgsregionen, der den Vorteil des Regionalmodells gegenüber der antreibenden Reanalyse hervorhebt. In verschiedenen Fall- und Sensitivitätsstudien werden die wesentlichen Antriebsfaktoren des indischen Monsuns (Meeresoberflächentemperaturen, Stärke des winterlichen Sibirischen Hochs und Anomalien der Bodenfeuchte) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass die Simulation dieser Mechanismen auch mit einem Regionalmodell sehr schwierig ist, da die Komplexität des Monsunsystems hochgradig nichtlinear ist und die vor allem subgridskalig wirkenden Prozesse im Modell noch nicht ausreichend parametrisiert und verstanden sind. Ein paläoklimatisches Experiment für eine 44-jährige Zeitscheibe im mittleren Holozän (etwa 6000 Jahre vor heute), die am Rand von einer globalen ECHAM5 Simulation angetrieben wird, zeigt markante Veränderungen in der Intensität des Monsuns durch die unterschiedliche solare Einstrahlung, die wiederum Einflüsse auf die SST, die Zirkulation und damit auf die Niederschlagsmuster hat.
Severely negative Delta(14)C anomalies from the mid-depth Pacific and the Arabian Sea have been taken as support for the hypothesized deglacial release of a previously isolated, extremely (14)C-deplete deep ocean carbon reservoir. We report box model simulations that cast doubt on both the existence of the hypothesized deep reservoir and its ability to explain the mid-depth Delta(14)C anomalies. First, the degree of ice age isolation needed to substantially reduce the deep Delta(14)C of the deep reservoir causes anoxia and the trapping of alkalinity from CaCO(3) dissolution, the latter increasing atmospheric CO(2). Second, even with a completely (14)C-free deep reservoir, achieving the mid-depth Delta(14)C anomalies of observed duration requires ad hoc stifling of aspects of deep circulation to prevent rapid dissipation of the anomalous (14)C-free carbon to the rest of the ocean and the atmosphere. We suggest that the mid-depth anomalies do not record basin-scale Delta(14)C changes but are instead local phenomena.
We present an alarm-based earthquake forecast model that uses the early aftershock statistics (EAST). This model is based on the hypothesis that the time delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate decreases as the level of stress and the seismogenic potential increase. Here, we estimate this time delay from < t(g)>, the time constant of the Omori-Utsu law. To isolate space-time regions with a relative high level of stress, the single local variable of our forecast model is the E-a value, the ratio between the long-term and short-term estimations of < t(g)>. When and where the E-a value exceeds a given threshold (i.e., the c value is abnormally small), an alarm is issued, and an earthquake is expected to occur during the next time step. Retrospective tests show that the EAST model has better predictive power than a stationary reference model based on smoothed extrapolation of past seismicity. The official prospective test for California started on 1 July 2009 in the testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). During the first nine months, 44 M >= 4 earthquakes occurred in the testing area. For this time period, the EAST model has better predictive power than the reference model at a 1% level of significance. Because the EAST model has also a better predictive power than several time-varying clustering models tested in CSEP at a 1% level of significance, we suggest that our successful prospective results are not due only to the space-time clustering of aftershocks.
Shallow lithological structure across the Dead Sea Transform derived from geophysical experiments
(2011)
In the framework of the DEad SEa Rift Transect (DESERT) project a 150 km magnetotelluric profile consisting of 154 sites was carried out across the Dead Sea Transform. The resistivity model presented shows conductive structures in the western section of the study area terminating abruptly at the Arava Fault. For a more detailed analysis we performed a joint interpretation of the resistivity model with a P wave velocity model from a partially coincident seismic experiment. The technique used is a statistical correlation of resistivity and velocity values in parameter space. Regions of high probability of a coexisting pair of values for the two parameters are mapped back into the spatial domain, illustrating the geographical location of lithological classes. In this study, four regions of enhanced probability have been identified, and are remapped as four lithological classes. This technique confirms the Arava Fault marks the boundary of a highly conductive lithological class down to a depth of similar to 3 km. That the fault acts as an impermeable barrier to fluid flow is unusual for large fault zone, which often exhibit a fault zone characterized by high conductivity and low seismic velocity. At greater depths it is possible to resolve the Precambrian basement into two classes characterized by vastly different resistivity values but similar seismic velocities. The boundary between these classes is approximately coincident with the Al Quweira Fault, with higher resistivities observed east of the fault. This is interpreted as evidence for the original deformation along the DST originally taking place at the Al Quweira Fault, before being shifted to the Arava Fault.