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To gain a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind biomass accumulation, it is important to study plant growth behavior. Manually phenotyping large sets of plants requires important human resources and expertise and is typically not feasible for detection of weak growth phenotypes. Here, we established an automated growth phenotyping pipeline for Arabidopsis thaliana to aid researchers in comparing growth behaviors of different genotypes.
The analysis pipeline includes automated image analysis of two-dimensional digital plant images and evaluation of manually annotated information of growth stages. It employs linear mixed-effects models to quantify genotype effects on total rosette area and relative leaf growth rate (RLGR) and ANOVAs to quantify effects on developmental times.
Using the system, a single researcher can phenotype up to 7000 plants d(-1). Technical variance is very low (typically < 2%). We show quantitative results for the growth-impaired starch-excessmutant sex4-3 and the growth-enhancedmutant grf9.
We show that recordings of environmental and developmental variables reduce noise levels in the phenotyping datasets significantly and that careful examination of predictor variables (such as d after sowing or germination) is crucial to avoid exaggerations of recorded phenotypes and thus biased conclusions.
A water quality model for shallow river-lake systems and its application in river basin management
(2007)
This work documents the development and application of a new model for simulating mass transport and turnover in rivers and shallow lakes. The simulation tool called 'TRAM' is intended to complement mesoscale eco-hydrological catchment models in studies on river basin management. TRAM aims at describing the water quality of individual water bodies, using problem- and scale-adequate approaches for representing their hydrological and ecological characteristics. The need for such flexible water quality analysis and prediction tools is expected to further increase during the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) as well as in the context of climate change research. The developed simulation tool consists of a transport and a reaction module with the latter being highly flexible with respect to the description of turnover processes in the aquatic environment. Therefore, simulation approaches of different complexity can easily be tested and model formulations can be chosen in consideration of the problem at hand, knowledge of process functioning, and data availability. Consequently, TRAM is suitable for both heavily simplified engineering applications as well as scientific ecosystem studies involving a large number of state variables, interactions, and boundary conditions. TRAM can easily be linked to catchment models off-line and it requires the use of external hydrodynamic simulation software. Parametrization of the model and visualization of simulation results are facilitated by the use of geographical information systems as well as specific pre- and post-processors. TRAM has been developed within the research project 'Management Options for the Havel River Basin' funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research. The project focused on the analysis of different options for reducing the nutrient load of surface waters. It was intended to support the implementation of the WFD in the lowland catchment of the Havel River located in North-East Germany. Within the above-mentioned study TRAM was applied with two goals in mind. In a first step, the model was used for identifying the magnitude as well as spatial and temporal patterns of nitrogen retention and sediment phosphorus release in a 100~km stretch of the highly eutrophic Lower Havel River. From the system analysis, strongly simplified conceptual approaches for modeling N-retention and P-remobilization in the studied river-lake system were obtained. In a second step, the impact of reduced external nutrient loading on the nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations of the Havel River was simulated (scenario analysis) taking into account internal retention/release. The boundary conditions for the scenario analysis such as runoff and nutrient emissions from river basins were computed by project partners using the catchment models SWIM and ArcEGMO-Urban. Based on the output of TRAM, the considered options of emission control could finally be evaluated using a site-specific assessment scale which is compatible with the requirements of the WFD. Uncertainties in the model predictions were also examined. According to simulation results, the target of the WFD -- with respect to total phosphorus concentrations in the Lower Havel River -- could be achieved in the medium-term, if the full potential for reducing point and non-point emissions was tapped. Furthermore, model results suggest that internal phosphorus loading will ease off noticeably until 2015 due to a declining pool of sedimentary mobile phosphate. Mass balance calculations revealed that the lakes of the Lower Havel River are an important nitrogen sink. This natural retention effect contributes significantly to the efforts aimed at reducing the river's nitrogen load. If a sustainable improvement of the river system's water quality is to be achieved, enhanced measures to further reduce the immissions of both phosphorus and nitrogen are required.
Point processes are a common methodology to model sets of events. From earthquakes to social media posts, from the arrival times of neuronal spikes to the timing of crimes, from stock prices to disease spreading -- these phenomena can be reduced to the occurrences of events concentrated in points. Often, these events happen one after the other defining a time--series.
Models of point processes can be used to deepen our understanding of such events and for classification and prediction. Such models include an underlying random process that generates the events. This work uses Bayesian methodology to infer the underlying generative process from observed data. Our contribution is twofold -- we develop new models and new inference methods for these processes.
We propose a model that extends the family of point processes where the occurrence of an event depends on the previous events. This family is known as Hawkes processes. Whereas in most existing models of such processes, past events are assumed to have only an excitatory effect on future events, we focus on the newly developed nonlinear Hawkes process, where past events could have excitatory and inhibitory effects. After defining the model, we present its inference method and apply it to data from different fields, among others, to neuronal activity.
The second model described in the thesis concerns a specific instance of point processes --- the decision process underlying human gaze control. This process results in a series of fixated locations in an image. We developed a new model to describe this process, motivated by the known Exploration--Exploitation dilemma. Alongside the model, we present a Bayesian inference algorithm to infer the model parameters.
Remaining in the realm of human scene viewing, we identify the lack of best practices for Bayesian inference in this field. We survey four popular algorithms and compare their performances for parameter inference in two scan path models.
The novel models and inference algorithms presented in this dissertation enrich the understanding of point process data and allow us to uncover meaningful insights.
This study addresses the interactions of coffee storage proteins with coffee-specific phenolic compounds. Protein profiles, of Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora (var robusta) were compared. Major Phenolic compounds were extracted and analyzed with appropriate methods. The polyphenol-protein interactions during protein extraction have been addressed by different analytical setups [reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC), sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE), matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight-mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS), and Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC) assays], with focus directed toward identification of covalent adduct formation. The results indicate that C. arabica proteins are more susceptible to these interactions and the polyphenol oxidase activity seems to be a crucial factor for the formation of these addition products. A tentative allocation of the modification type and site in the protein has been attempted. Thus, the first available in silico modeling of modified coffee proteins is reported. The extent of these modifications may contribute to the structure and function of "coffee melanoidins" and are discussed in the context of coffee flavor formation.
During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007–2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
We used structural topic modeling to analyze over 800,000 German tweets about COVID-19 to answer the questions: What patterns emerge in tweets as a response to a health crisis? And how do topics discussed change over time? The study leans on the goals associated with the health information seeking (GAINS) model, discerning whether a post aims at tackling and eliminating the problem (i.e., problem-focused) or managing the emotions (i.e., emotion-focused); whether it strives to maximize positive outcomes (promotion focus) or to minimize negative outcomes (prevention focus). The findings indicate four clusters salient in public reactions: 1) “Understanding” (problem-promotion); 2) “Action planning” (problem-prevention); 3) “Hope” (emotion-promotion) and 4) “Reassurance” (emotion-prevention). Public communication is volatile over time, and a shift is evidenced from self-centered to community-centered topics within 4.5 weeks. Our study illustrates social media text mining's potential to quickly and efficiently extract public opinions and reactions. Monitoring fears and trending topics enable policymakers to rapidly respond to deviant behavior, like resistive attitudes toward containment measures or deteriorating physical health. Healthcare workers can use the insights to provide mental health services for battling anxiety or extensive loneliness from staying home.
Cyber-physical systems achieve sophisticated system behavior exploring the tight interconnection of physical coupling present in classical engineering systems and information technology based coupling. A particular challenging case are systems where these cyber-physical systems are formed ad hoc according to the specific local topology, the available networking capabilities, and the goals and constraints of the subsystems captured by the information processing part. In this paper we present a formalism that permits to model the sketched class of cyber-physical systems. The ad hoc formation of tightly coupled subsystems of arbitrary size are specified using a UML-based graph transformation system approach. Differential equations are employed to define the resulting tightly coupled behavior. Together, both form hybrid graph transformation systems where the graph transformation rules define the discrete steps where the topology or modes may change, while the differential equations capture the continuous behavior in between such discrete changes. In addition, we demonstrate that automated analysis techniques known for timed graph transformation systems for inductive invariants can be extended to also cover the hybrid case for an expressive case of hybrid models where the formed tightly coupled subsystems are restricted to smaller local networks.
For around a decade, deep learning - the sub-field of machine learning that refers to artificial neural networks comprised of many computational layers - modifies the landscape of statistical model development in many research areas, such as image classification, machine translation, and speech recognition. Geoscientific disciplines in general and the field of hydrology in particular, also do not stand aside from this movement. Recently, the proliferation of modern deep learning-based techniques and methods has been actively gaining popularity for solving a wide range of hydrological problems: modeling and forecasting of river runoff, hydrological model parameters regionalization, assessment of available water resources. identification of the main drivers of the recent change in water balance components. This growing popularity of deep neural networks is primarily due to their high universality and efficiency. The presented qualities, together with the rapidly growing amount of accumulated environmental information, as well as increasing availability of computing facilities and resources, allow us to speak about deep neural networks as a new generation of mathematical models designed to, if not to replace existing solutions, but significantly enrich the field of geophysical processes modeling. This paper provides a brief overview of the current state of the field of development and application of deep neural networks in hydrology. Also in the following study, the qualitative long-term forecast regarding the development of deep learning technology for managing the corresponding hydrological modeling challenges is provided based on the use of "Gartner Hype Curve", which in the general details describes a life cycle of modern technologies.
Expanding modeling notations
(2022)
Creativity is a common aspect of business processes and thus needs a proper representation through process modeling notations. However, creative processes constitute highly flexible process elements, as new and unforeseeable outcome is developed. This presents a challenge for modeling languages. Current methods representing creative-intensive work are rather less able to capture creative specifics which are relevant to successfully run and manage these processes. We outline the concept of creative-intensive processes and present an example from a game design process in order to derive critical process aspects relevant for its modeling. Six aspects are detected, with first and foremost: process flexibility, as well as temporal uncertainty, experience, types of creative problems, phases of the creative process and individual criteria. By first analyzing what aspects of creative work modeling notations already cover, we further discuss which modeling extensions need to be developed to better represent creativity within business processes. We argue that a proper representation of creative work would not just improve the management of those processes, but can further enable process actors to more efficiently run these creative processes and adjust them to better fit to the creative needs.