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Immense uncertainty and the need for drastic interventions cause politicians to rely heavily on scientific advice for underpinning or legitimating their COVID-19 decision-making. This paper explores the role of scientific advice in this policy field in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK. It shows that scientific advice is based on the disciplinary, mainly medical, backgrounds of advisors but is also influenced by social and economic values, which are core to what politicians find important. During the pandemic a growing gap between scientific advice and political decisions is observed.
Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins of error, can alter citizens’ vote choices on election day. This has important implications for elections around the world
We report generation of ultra-broadband longitudinal acoustic coherent phonon wavepackets in SrTiO3 (STO) with frequency components extending throughout the first Brillouin zone. The wavepackets are efficiently generated in STO using femtosecond infrared laser excitation of an atomically flat 1.6 nm-thick epitaxial SrRuO3 film. We use femtosecond x-ray diffraction at the European X-Ray Free Electron Laser Facility to study the dispersion and damping of phonon wavepackets. The experimentally determined damping constants for multi-THz frequency phonons compare favorably to the extrapolation of a simple ultrasound damping model over several orders of magnitude.
The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants.
We address the effect of stochastic resetting on diffusion and subdiffusion process. For diffusion we find that mean square displacement relaxes to a constant only when the distribution of reset times possess finite mean and variance. In this case, the leading order contribution to the probability density function (PDF) of a Gaussian propagator under resetting exhibits a cusp independent of the specific details of the reset time distribution. For subdiffusion we derive the PDF in Laplace space for arbitrary resetting protocol. Resetting at constant rate allows evaluation of the PDF in terms of H function. We analyze the steady state and derive the rate function governing the relaxation behavior. For a subdiffusive process the steady state could exist even if the distribution of reset times possesses only finite mean.
There has been little research attention given to how Gay-Straight Alliances might mitigate mental health consequences associated with experiencing homophobic cyberbullying. To address this gap in knowledge, the purpose of this one-year longitudinal study was to investigate the moderating effect of perceived social support from Gay-Straight Alliances in the relationships among homophobic cyberbullying victimization and bystanding and depressive and anxiety symptoms among 466 LGBTQIA adolescents (M-age = 15.76; 52% female). The findings revealed that perceived social support was related negatively to homophobic cyberbullying involvement and depressive and anxiety symptoms. Homophobic cyberbullying involvement was related positively to depressive and anxiety symptoms. High perceived social support buffered against the depressive and anxiety symptoms resulting from homophobic victimization and bystanding among LGBTQIA adolescents but low levels and average levels did not moderate these associations. These findings highlight the importance of expanding Gay-Straight Alliances in schools.
The stabilizing properties of mineral-organic carbon (OC) interactions have been studied in many soil environments (temperate soils, podzol lateritic soils, and paddy soils). Recently, interest in their role in permafrost regions is increasing as permafrost was identified as a hotspot of change. In thawing ice-rich permafrost regions, such as the Yedoma domain, 327-466 Gt of frozen OC is buried in deep sediments. Interactions between minerals and OC are important because OC is located very near the mineral matrix. Mineral surfaces and elements could mitigate recent and future greenhouse gas emissions through physical and/or physicochemical protection of OC. The dynamic changes in redox and pH conditions associated with thermokarst lake formation and drainage trigger metal-oxide dissolution and precipitation, likely influencing OC stabilization and microbial mineralization. However, the influence of thermokarst processes on mineral-OC interactions remains poorly constrained. In this study, we aim to characterize Fe, Mn, Al, and Ca minerals and their potential protective role for OC. Total and selective extractions were used to assess the crystalline and amorphous oxides or complexed metal pools as well as the organic acids found within these pools. We analyzed four sediment cores from an ice-rich permafrost area in Central Yakutia, which were drilled (i) in undisturbed Yedoma uplands, (ii) beneath a recent lake formed within Yedoma deposits, (iii) in a drained thermokarst lake basin, and (iv) beneath a mature thermokarst lake from the early Holocene period. We find a decrease in the amount of reactive Fe, Mn, Al, and Ca in the deposits on lake formation (promoting reduction reactions), and this was largely balanced by an increase in the amount of reactive metals in the deposits on lake drainage (promoting oxidation reactions). We demonstrate an increase in the metal to C molar ratio on thermokarst process, which may indicate an increase in metal-C bindings and could provide a higher protective role against microbial mineralization of organic matter. Finally, we find that an increase in mineral-OC interactions corresponded to a decrease in CO2 and CH4 gas emissions on thermokarst process. Mineral-OC interactions could mitigate greenhouse gas production from permafrost thaw as soon as lake drainage occurs.
We study the first-arrival (first-hitting) dynamics and efficiency of a one-dimensional random search model performing asymmetric Levy flights by leveraging the Fokker-Planck equation with a delta-sink and an asymmetric space-fractional derivative operator with stable index alpha and asymmetry (skewness) parameter beta.
We find exact analytical results for the probability density of first-arrival times and the search efficiency, and we analyse their behaviour within the limits of short and long times.
We find that when the starting point of the searcher is to the right of the target, random search by Brownian motion is more efficient than Levy flights with beta <= 0 (with a rightward bias) for short initial distances, while for beta>0 (with a leftward bias) Levy flights with alpha -> 1 are more efficient.
When increasing the initial distance of the searcher to the target, Levy flight search (except for alpha=1 with beta=0) is more efficient than the Brownian search. Moreover, the asymmetry in jumps leads to essentially higher efficiency of the Levy search compared to symmetric Levy flights at both short and long distances, and the effect is more pronounced for stable indices alpha close to unity.
Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides.
Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September).
Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average.
Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons.
Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.
Species community structures of Afrotropical butterflies differ depending on the monitoring method
(2022)
Standardised biodiversity assessment is crucial to understand community structures and population dynamics of animals.
There exist various methods to monitor biodiversity. Approaches differ depending on the target species group and the aim of study, and show advantages and disadvantages.
The obtained data and results are influenced by local environmental conditions and seasonal variability.
In a comparative approach, we studied butterfly diversity and community structure in the dryland savannah biome of south-eastern Kenya with two different methods, transect counts and bait trapping.
We repeatedly collected data throughout the dry and rainy seasons, in both near natural and anthropogenically influenced landscapes. Significantly more species and individuals were recorded by transect counts than by bait trapping, though the larger and more mobile Nymphalid species (and in particular representatives of the genus Charaxes) were comparatively overrepresented in traps.
The transect data revealed much more pronounced effects of land-use and seasonality than the trap data. These results show that the choice of data collection methods must depend on the general research question, habitat conditions and season. To study the relative variation of species diversity and abundance, the collection of a fraction of the total species diversity might be sufficient.
However, if the focus is on a largely complete recording of species diversity, the use of various collection methods is essential. More specifically, our data clearly demonstrate that transect counts represent a reasonable method for assessing butterfly diversity for the African dryland savannah region, but fails to fully capture occurrences of all species. Bait trapping can be used only as a supplementary method for assessing some few highly mobile low-density species.