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While estimated numbers of past and future climate migrants are alarming, the growing empirical evidence suggests that the association between adverse climate-related events and migration is not universally positive. This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of when and how climate migration emerges by analyzing heterogeneous climatic influences on migration in low- and middle-income countries. To this end, it draws on established economic theories of migration, datasets from physical and social sciences, causal inference techniques and approaches from systematic literature review. In three of its five chapters, I estimate causal effects of processes of climate change on inequality and migration in India and Sub-Saharan Africa. By employing interaction terms and by analyzing sub-samples of data, I explore how these relationships differ for various segments of the population. In the remaining two chapters, I present two systematic literature reviews. First, I undertake a comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the econometric climate migration literature to summarize general climate migration patterns and explain the conflicting findings. Second, motivated by the broad range of approaches in the field, I examine the literature from a methodological perspective to provide best practice guidelines for studying climate migration empirically. Overall, the evidence from this dissertation shows that climatic influences on human migration are highly heterogeneous. Whether adverse climate-related impacts materialize in migration depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the individual households, such as wealth, level of education, agricultural dependence or access to adaptation technologies and insurance. For instance, I show that while adverse climatic shocks are generally associated with an increase in migration in rural India, they reduce migration in the agricultural context of Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average wealth levels are much lower so that households largely cannot afford the upfront costs of moving. I find that unlike local climatic shocks which primarily enhance internal migration to cities and hence accelerate urbanization, shocks transmitted via agricultural producer prices increase migration to neighboring countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. These findings advance our current understanding by showing when and how economic agents respond to climatic events, thus providing explicit contexts and mechanisms of climate change effects on migration in the future. The resulting collection of findings can guide policy interventions to avoid or mitigate any present and future welfare losses from climate change-related migration choices.
Distances affect economic decision-making in numerous situations. The time at which we make a decision about future consumption has an impact on our consumption behavior. The spatial distance to employer, school or university impacts the place where we live and vice versa. The emotional closeness to other individuals influences our willingness to give money to them. This cumulative thesis aims to enrich the literature on the role of distance for economic decision-making. Thereby, each of my research projects sheds light on the impact of one kind of distance for efficient decision-making.
Against the background of the increasingly discussed “Linguistic Saving Hypothesis” (Chen, 2013), I studied whether the targeted use of a present tense (close tense) and a future tense (distant tense) within the same language have an impact on intertemporal decision-making. In a monetarily incentivized laboratory experiment in Germany, I implemented two different treatments on intertemporal choices. The treatments differed in the tense in which I referred to future rewards. My results show that individuals prefer to a greater extent rewards which are associated with a present tense (close tense). This result is in line with my prediction and the first empirical support for the Linguistic Saving Hypothesis within one language. However, this result holds exclusively for males. Females seem to be unaffected by the linguistic manipulation. I discuss my findings in the context of “gender-as-culture” as well as their potential policy-implications.
On January 1, 2015, Germany introduced a general statutory minimum wage of €8.50 gross per hour. This thesis analyses the effects of the minimum wage introduction in Germany as well as wage floors in the European context, contributing to national and international research.
The second chapter of this dissertation summarizes the short-run effects of the minimum wage reform found in previous studies.
We show that the introduction of the minimum wage had a positive effect on wages at the bottom of the distribution. Yet, there was still a significant amount of non-compliance shortly after the reform. Additionally, previous evidence points to small negative employment effects mainly driven by a reduction in mini-jobs. Contrary to expectations, though, there were no effects on poverty and general inequality found in the short run. This is mostly due to the fact that working hours were reduced and the increase of hourly wages was therefore not reflected in monthly wages.
The third chapter identifies whether the job losses predicted in ex-ante studies materialized in the short run and, if so, which type of employment was affected the most. To identify the effects, this chapter (as well as chapter four) uses a regional difference-in-difference approach to estimate the effects on regular employment (part- and full-time) and mini-jobs.
Our results suggest that the minimum wage has slightly reduced overall employment, mainly due to a decline in mini-jobs.
The fourth chapter has the same methodological approach as the previous one. Its motivated by the fact that women are often overrepresented among low-wage employees. Thus, the primary research question in this chapter is whether the minimum wage has led to a narrowing of the gender wage gap. In order to answer that, we identify the effects on the wage gap at the 10th and 25th percentiles and at the mean of the underlying gender-specific wage distributions. Our results imply that for eligible employees the gender wage gap at the 10th percentile decreased by 4.6 percentage points between 2014 and 2018 in high-bite regions compared to low-bite regions. We estimate this to be a reduction of 32% compared to 2014. Higher up the distribution – i.e. at the 25th percentile and the mean – the effects are smaller and not as robust.
The fifth chapter keeps the gender-specific emphasis on minimum wage effects. However, in contrast to the rest of the dissertation, it widens the scope to other European Union countries. Following the rationale of the previous chapter, women could potentially benefit particularly from a minimum wage. However, they could also be more prone to suffer from the possibly induced job losses or reductions in working hours. Therefore, this chapter summarizes existing evidence from EU member states dealing with the relationship between wage floors and the gender wage gap. In addition, it provides a systematic summary of studies that examine the impact of minimum wages on employment losses or changes in working hours that particularly affect women. The evidence shows that higher wage floors are often associated with smaller gender wage gaps. With respect to employment, women do not appear to experience greater employment losses than men per se. However, studies show that the minimum wage has a particular impact on part-time workers. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the negative correlation between the minimum wage and the gender wage gap is related to the job losses of these lower-paid, often female, part-time workers. This working arrangement should therefore be specially focused on in the context of minimum wages.
This paper analyzes the effect of new bicycle lanes on traffic volume, congestion, and accidents. Crucially, the new bike lanes replace existing car lanes thereby reducing available space for motorized traffic. In order to obtain causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-random timing and location of the newly built cycle lanes. Using an event study design, a two-way fixed effects model and the synthetic control group method on geo-coded data, I show that the construction of pop-up bike lanes significantly reduced average car speed by 8 to 12 percentage points (p.p.) and up to 16 p.p. in peak traffic hours. In contrast, the results for car volume are modest, while the data does not allow for a conclusive judgment of accidents.
Essays in labor economics
(2022)
This thesis offers insights into the process of workers decisions to invest into work-related training. Specifically, the role of personality traits and attitudes is analysed. The aim is to understand whether such traits contribute to an under-investment into training. Importantly, general and specific training are distinguished, where the worker’s productivity increases in many firms in the former and only in the current firm in the latter case. Additionally, this thesis contributes to the evaluation of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015, identifying causal effects on wages and working hours.
Chapters two to four focus on the work-related training decision. First, individuals with an internal locus of control see a direct link between their own actions and their labor market success, while external individuals connect their outcomes to fate, luck, and other people. Consequently, it can be expected that internal individuals expect higher returns to training and are, thus, more willing to participate. The results reflect this hypothesis with internal individuals being more likely to participate in general (but not specific) training. Second, training can be viewed either as a risky investment or as an insurance against negative labor income shocks. In both cases, risk attitudes are expected to play a role in the decision process. The data point towards risk seeking individuals being more likely to participate in general (but not specific) training, and thus, training being viewed on average as a risky investment. Third, job satisfaction influences behavioral decisions in the job context, where dissatisfied workers may react by neglecting their duties, improving the situation or quitting the job. In the first case, dissatisfied workers are expected to invest less in training, while the latter two reactions could lead to higher participation rates amongst dissatisfied workers. The results suggest that on average dissatisfied workers are less likely to invest into training than satisfied workers. However, closer inspections of quit intentions and different sources of dissatisfaction paint less clear pictures, pointing towards the complexity of the job satisfaction construct.
Chapters five and six evaluate the introduction of the minimum wage in Germany in 2015. First, in 2015 an increase in the growth of hourly wages can be identified as a causal effect of the minimum wage introduction. However, at the same time, a reduction in the weekly working hours results in an overall unchanged growth in monthly earnings. When considering the effects in 2016, the decrease in weekly working hours disappears, resulting in a significant increase in the growth of monthly earnings due to the minimum wage. Importantly, the analysis suggests that the increase in hourly wages was not sufficient to ensure all workers receiving the minimum wage. This points to non-compliance being an issue in the first years after the minimum wage introduction.
Job satisfaction has been found to impact behavioral choices at the workplace. Since levels of satisfaction are not guaranteed to remain high, understanding the consequences of job dissatisfaction is essential. Hence, I analyze the relationship between a worker’s job satisfaction and her training investments. Based on my theoretical model, I expect a U-shaped relationship if dissatisfied workers attempt to improve the situation or plan to quit. In contrast, there is an overall positive relationship if dissatisfied workers neglect their duties. Using logit regressions with the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey I find tentative evidence that there is on average an overall positive relationship with a 1 standard deviation increase in job satisfaction being associated with a 1.5% increased likelihood of participating in training. A closer inspection of the reasons for training as well as quit intentions reveals some hints of a U-shaped relationship. My results highlight the importance of considering the source of dissatisfaction as there are heterogeneous effects along different job satisfaction facets.
We examine the relationship between different types of power investments and regional economic dynamics. We construct a novel panel dataset combining data on regional GDP and power capacity additions for different technologies between 1960 and 2015, which covers 65% of the global power capacity that has been installed in this period. We use an event study design to identify the effect of power capacity addition on GDP per capita, exploiting the fact that the exact amount of power capacity coming online each year is determined by random construction delays. We find evidence that GDP per capita increases by 0.2% in the 6 years around the coming online of 100 MW coal-fired power capacity. We find similar effects for hydropower capacity, but not for any other type of power capacity. The positive effects are regionally bounded and stronger for projects on new sites (green-field). The magnitude of this effect might not be comparable to the total external costs of building new coal-fired power capacity, yet our results help to explain why policymakers favor coal investments for spurring regional growth.
On Track to Success?
(2022)
Many countries consider expanding vocational curricula in secondary education to boost skills and labour market outcomes among non-university-bound students. However, critics fear this could divert other students from more profitable academic education. We study labour market returns to vocational education in England, where until recently students chose between a vocational track, an academic track and quitting education at age 16. Identification is challenging because self-selection is strong and because students’ next-best alternatives are unknown. Against this back- drop, we leverage multiple instrumental variables to estimate margin-specific treatment effects, i.e., causal returns to vocational education for students at the margin with academic education and, separately, for students at the margin with quitting education. Identification comes from variation in distance to the nearest vocational provider conditional on distance to the nearest academic provider (and vice-versa), while controlling for granular student, school and neighbourhood characteristics. The analysis is based on population-wide administrative education data linked to tax records. We find that the vast majority of marginal vocational students are indifferent be- tween vocational and academic education. For them, vocational enrolment substantially decreases earnings at age 30. This earnings penalty grows with age and is due to wages, not employment. However, consistent with comparative advantage, the penalty is smaller for students with higher revealed preferences for the vocational track. For the few students at the margin with no further education, we find merely tentative evidence of increased employment and earnings from vocational enrolment.