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It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.
„Heimat“-Objekte
(2018)
Bei ihrer zumeist erzwungenen Emigration aus der deutschsprachigen Heimat nach Lateinamerika konnten bei weitem nicht alle ihren gesamten Hausstand mit in das neue Heimatland nehmen. Vielmehr war es der Mehrzahl der Emigranten nicht möglich, mehr als ein paar Kofffer aus ihrem alten Leben in das neue zu retten. Verkauft oder beschlagnahmt, vieles musste zurückbleiben, was über Jahre die Wohnungen und Häuser der deutschen Juden gefüllt hatte. Das Wenige, was doch mitgenommen werden konnte, hatte somit umso mehr persönlichen Wert für den Besitzer. Was also hatten die deutsch-jüdischen Emigranten und Exilanten in ihren Kofffern und weshalb waren gerade diese Objekte für sie bedeutend genug, um sie auf den beschwerlichen Weg über den Atlantik und auf einen neuen Kontinent in eine unbekannte Zukunft mitzunehmen?Eine Antwort auf diese Frage können die Objekte selbst geben, welche bis heute in den Familien der einstigen Emigranten aufbewahrt und benutzt werden. Sie repräsentieren die verlorene Heimat, ein Stück Geschichte des Ursprungslandes und der eigenen Familie. Diese Gegenstände sind mehr als nur Gebrauchsobjekte, welche ihren monetären Wert hatten und daher nicht zurückgelassen werden sollten. Es sind vielmehr Träger von gegebenen und zugeschriebenen Bedeutungen und Erinnerungen an Heimat, die ihnen anhaften und über Generationen hinweg weitergegeben und in ihrem Sym-bolgehalt ergänzt und erweitert werden.
Wird Schon Stimmen!
(2018)
The article puts forward a novel analysis of the German modal particle schon as a modal degree operator over propositional content. The proposed analysis offers a uniform perspective on the semantics of modal schon and its aspectual counterpart meaning ‘already’: Both particles are analyzed as denoting a degree operator, expressing a scale-based comparison over relevant alternatives. The alternatives are determined by focus in the case of aspectual schon (Krifka 2000), but are restricted to the polar alternatives p and ¬p in the case of modal schon. Semantically, modal schon introduces a presupposition to the effect that the circumstantial conversational background contains more factual evidence in favor of p than in favor of ¬p, thereby making modal schon the not at-issue counterpart of the overt comparative form eher ‘rather’ (Herburger & Rubinstein 2014). The analysis incorporates basic insights from earlier analyses of modal schon in a novel way, and it also offers new insights as to the underlying workings of modality in natural language as involving propositions rather than possible worlds (Kratzer 1977, 2012).
The equatorial electrojet occasionally reverses during morning and afternoon hours, leading to periods of westward current in the ionospheric E region that are known as counter electrojet (CEJ) events. We present the first analysis of CEJ climatology and CEJ dependence on solar flux and lunar phase for the Brazilian sector, based on an extensive ground-based data set for the years 2008 to 2017 from the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (1.2 degrees S, 48.5 degrees W), and we compare it to the results found for Huancayo (12.0 degrees S, 75.3 degrees W) observatory in the Peruvian sector. We found a predominance of morning CEJ events for both sectors. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate in the Brazilian sector is twice as high as in the Peruvian sector. The afternoon CEJ occurrence rate strongly depends on season, with maximum rates occurring during the northern-hemisphere summer for the Brazilian sector and during the northern-hemisphere winter for the Peruvian sector. Significant discrepancies between the two sectors are also found for morning CEJ rates during the northern-hemisphere summer. These longitudinal differences are in agreement with a CEJ climatology derived from contemporary Swarm satellite data and can be attributed in part to the well-known longitudinal wave-4 structure in the background equatorial electrojet strength that results from nonmigrating solar tides and stationary planetary waves. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model show that the remaining longitudinal variability in CEJ during northern summer can be explained by the effect of migrating tides in the presence of the varying geomagnetic field in the South Atlantic Anomaly.
One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude mu is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m(max) for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mu is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of mu for the time interval T-f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence alpha = 0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T-f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m(max) = 8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mu in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1 - alpha = 0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of mu is around mu = 7.16-8.23 in all seismic zones.
TDS-1 GNSS Reflectometry
(2018)
This study presents the development and a systematic evaluation study of GNSS reflectometry wind speeds. After establishing a wind speed retrieval algorithm, UK TechDemoSat-1 (TDS-1) derived winds, from May 2015 to July 2017, are compared to the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). ERA-Interim wind fields of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and in situ observation from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array in the Pacific are taken as reference. One-year averaged TDS-1 global winds demonstrate small differences with ECMWF in a majority of areas as well as discuss under- and overestimations. The pioneering TDS-1 winds demonstrate a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias of 2.77 and -0.33 m/s, which are comparable to the RMSE and bias derived by ASCAT winds, as large as 2.31 and 0.25 m/s, respectively. Using buoys measurements as reference, RMSE and bias of 2.23 and -0.03 m/s for TDS-1 as well as 1.40 and -0.68 m/s for ASCAT are obtained. Utilizing rain microwave-infrared estimates of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, rain-affected observation of both ASCAT and TDS-1 are collected and evaluated. Although ASCAT winds show a significant performance degradation resulting in an RMSE and bias of 3.16 and 1.03 m/s, respectively, during rain condition, TDS-1 shows a more reliable performance with an RMSE and bias of 2.94 and -0.21 m/s, respectively, which indicates the promising capability of GNSS forward scattering for wind retrievals during rain. A decrease in TDS-1-derived bistatic radar cross sections during rain events, at weak winds, is also demonstrated.
DNA nanostructures enable the attachment of functional molecules to nearly any unique location on their underlying structure. Due to their single-base-pair structural resolution, several ligands can be spatially arranged and closely controlled according to the geometry of their desired target, resulting in optimized binding and/or signaling interactions. Here, the efficacy of SWL, an ephrin-mimicking peptide that binds specifically to EphrinA2 (EphA2) receptors, increased by presenting up to three of these peptides on small DNA nanostructures in an oligovalent manner. Ephrin signaling pathways play crucial roles in tumor development and progression. Moreover, Eph receptors are potential targets in cancer diagnosis and treatment. Here, the quantitative impact of SWL valency on binding, phosphorylation (key player for activation) and phenotype regulation in EphA2-expressing prostate cancer cells was demonstrated. EphA2 phosphorylation was significantly increased by DNA trimers carrying three SWL peptides compared to monovalent SWL. In comparison to one of EphA2’s natural ligands ephrin-A1, which is known to bind promiscuously to multiple receptors, pinpointed targeting of EphA2 by oligovalent DNA-SWL constructs showed enhanced cell retraction. Overall, we show that DNA scaffolds can increase the potency of weak signaling peptides through oligovalent presentation and serve as potential tools for examination of complex signaling pathways.
Information on structural features of a fracture network at early stages of Enhanced Geothermal System development is mostly restricted to borehole images and, if available, outcrop data. However, using this information to image discontinuities in deep reservoirs is difficult. Wellbore failure data provides only some information on components of the in situ stress state and its heterogeneity. Our working hypothesis is that slip on natural fractures primarily controls these stress heterogeneities. Based on this, we introduce stress-based tomography in a Bayesian framework to characterize the fracture network and its heterogeneity in potential Enhanced Geothermal System reservoirs. In this procedure, first a random initial discrete fracture network (DFN) realization is generated based on prior information about the network. The observations needed to calibrate the DFN are based on local variations of the orientation and magnitude of at least one principal stress component along boreholes. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sequence is employed to update the DFN iteratively by a fracture translation within the domain. The Markov sequence compares the simulated stress profile with the observed stress profiles in the borehole, evaluates each iteration with Metropolis-Hastings acceptance criteria, and stores acceptable DFN realizations in an ensemble. Finally, this obtained ensemble is used to visualize the potential occurrence of fractures in a probability map, indicating possible fracture locations and lengths. We test this methodology to reconstruct simple synthetic and more complex outcrop-based fracture networks and successfully image the significant fractures in the domain.
Early maternal care may counteract familial liability for psychopathology in the reward circuitry
(2018)
Reward processing is altered in various psychopathologies and has been shown to be susceptible to genetic and environmental influences. Here, we examined whether maternal care may buffer familial risk for psychiatric disorders in terms of reward processing. Functional magnetic resonance imaging during a monetary incentive delay task was acquired in participants of an epidemiological cohort study followed since birth (N = 172, 25 years). Early maternal stimulation was assessed during a standardized nursing/playing setting at the age of 3 months. Parental psychiatric disorders (familial risk) during childhood and the participants’ previous psychopathology were assessed by diagnostic interview. With high familial risk, higher maternal stimulation was related to increasing activation in the caudate head, the supplementary motor area, the cingulum and the middle frontal gyrus during reward anticipation, with the opposite pattern found in individuals with no familial risk. In contrast, higher maternal stimulation was associated with decreasing caudate head activity during reward delivery and reduced levels of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in the high-risk group. Decreased caudate head activity during reward anticipation and increased activity during delivery were linked to ADHD. These findings provide evidence of a long-term association of early maternal stimulation on both adult neurobiological systems of reward underlying externalizing behavior and ADHD during development.
This article focuses on the marginal extremities – the limits – of Shari’a practices in Australia, through the example of a criminal case in which four Sydney-based Muslim men whipped a Muslim convert to punish him for his excessive consumption of drugs and alcohol. The men claimed they acted in line with the doctrines of Shari’a practice to ‘purify’ or absolve the victim of his sins. While the case was tried before a magistrate in a lower court, it is argued in this article that its social and political significance was wider, reaching into contemporary debates around multiculturalism and immigration from non-western, non-liberal and mainly Muslim nations. Mainstream media and political narratives viewed the whipping as an example of the moral dangers of accommodating Shari’a norms, eliding the differences between peaceable Shari’a and its violent extremities, while situating the case at the limits of multicultural accommodation. This article interrogates the objectionable margins of some cultural practices through this limit case. At the same time it questions the limits or limitations of a multiculturalism that homogeneously views the practices of entire ethnic or religious groups as violent and incommensurable with dominant norms, while using these understandings as a justification for marginalising these groups.