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This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement. The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between-type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between- and within-type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes. Long-term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within-type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections.
Today's adolescents grow up using information and communication technologies as an integral part of their everyday life. This affords them with extensive opportunities, but also exposes them to online risks, such as cybergrooming and cyberbullying victimization. The aims of this study were to investigate correlates of cybergrooming and cyberbullying victimization and examine whether victims of both cybergrooming and cyberbullying (dual-cybervictims) show higher involvement in compulsive Internet use (CIU) and troubled offline behavior (TOB) compared to victims of either cybergrooming or cyberbullying (mono-cybervictims). The sample consisted of 2,042 Dutch, German, Thai, and U.S. adolescents (age = 11–17 years; M = 14.2; SD = 1.4). About every ninth adolescent (10.9 percent) reported either mono- or dual-cybervictimization. Second, both CIU and TOB were associated with all three types of cybervictimization, and finally, both CIU and TOB were more strongly linked to dual-cybervictimization than to both forms of mono-cybervictimization. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the associations between different forms of cybervictimization and psychological health and behavior problems among adolescents.
While the role of and consequences of being a bystander to face-to-face bullying has received some attention in the literature, to date, little is known about the effects of being a bystander to cyberbullying. It is also unknown how empathy might impact the negative consequences associated with being a bystander of cyberbullying. The present study focused on examining the longitudinal association between bystander of cyberbullying depression, and anxiety, and the moderating role of empathy in the relationship between bystander of cyberbullying and subsequent depression and anxiety. There were 1,090 adolescents (M-age = 12.19; 50% female) from the United States included at Time 1, and they completed questionnaires on empathy, cyberbullying roles (bystander, perpetrator, victim), depression, and anxiety. One year later, at Time 2, 1,067 adolescents (M-age = 13.76; 51% female) completed questionnaires on depression and anxiety. Results revealed a positive association between bystander of cyberbullying and depression and anxiety. Further, empathy moderated the positive relationship between bystander of cyberbullying and depression, but not for anxiety. Implications for intervention and prevention programs are discussed.
From precipitation to damage
(2018)
Flood risk assessments for large river basins often involve piecing together smaller-scale assessments leading to erroneous risk statements. We describe a coupled model chain for quantifying flood risk at the scale of 100,000 km(2). It consists of a catchment model, a 1D-2D river network model, and a loss model. We introduce the model chain and present two applications. The first application for the Elbe River basin with an area of 66,000 km(2) demonstrates that it is feasible to simulate the complete risk chain for large river basins in a continuous simulation mode with high temporal and spatial resolution. In the second application, RFM is coupled to a multisite weather generator and applied to the Mulde catchment with an area of 6,000 km(2). This approach is able to provide a very long time series of spatially heterogeneous patterns of precipitation, discharge, inundation, and damage. These patterns respect the spatial correlation of the different processes and are suitable to derive large-scale risk estimates. We discuss how the RFM approach can be transferred to the continental scale.