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State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this ‘pull factor’ claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the ‘pull factor’ claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.
The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu (OU) law describe the earthquakes' energy release and temporal clustering and are thus of great importance for seismic hazard assessment. Motivated by experimental results, which indicate stress-dependent parameters, we consider a combined global data set of 127 main shock-aftershock sequences and perform a systematic study of the relationship between main shock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity patterns. For this purpose, we calculate space-dependent Coulomb Stress (& UDelta;CFS) and alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the surrounding of the main shocks. Our results indicate a clear positive correlation between the GR b-value and the induced stress, contrasting expectations from laboratory experiments and suggesting a crucial role of structural heterogeneity and strength variations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the OU parameters c and p systematically decrease for increasing stress changes. Our partly unexpected findings can have an important impact on future estimations of the aftershock hazard.
Self-efficacy reflects the self-belief that one can persistently perform difficult and novel tasks while coping with adversity. As such beliefs reflect how individuals behave, think, and act, they are key for successful entrepreneurial activities. While existing literature mainly analyzes the influence of the task-related construct of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we take a different perspective and investigate, based on a representative sample of 1,405 German business founders, how the personality characteristic of generalized self-efficacy influences start-up performance as measured by a broad set of business outcomes up to 19 months after business creation. Outcomes include start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, as well as growth-oriented outcomes such as job creation and innovation. We find statistically significant and economically important positive effects of high scores of self-efficacy on start-up survival and entrepreneurial income, which become even stronger when focusing on the growth-oriented outcome of innovation. Furthermore, we observe that generalized self-efficacy is similarly distributed between female and male business founders, with effects being partly stronger for female entrepreneurs. Our findings are important for policy instruments that are meant to support firm growth by facilitating the design of more target-oriented offers for training, coaching, and entrepreneurial incubators.
Background
Self-regulation (SR) as the ability to regulate one's own physical state, emotions, cognitions, and behavior, is considered to play a pivotal role in the concurrent and subsequent mental and physical health of an individual. Although SR skills encompass numerous sub-facets, previous research has often focused on only one or a few of these sub-facets, and only rarely on adolescence. Therefore, little is known about the development of the sub-facets, their interplay, and their specific contributions to future developmental outcomes, particularly in adolescence. To fill these research gaps, this study aims to prospectively examine (1) the development of SR and (2) their influence on adolescent-specific developmental outcomes in a large community sample.
Methods/design
Based on previously collected data from the Potsdam Intrapersonal Developmental Risk (PIER) study with three measurement points, the present prospective, longitudinal study aims to add a fourth measurement point (PIERYOUTH). We aim to retain at least 1074 participants now between 16 and 23 years of the initially 1657 participants (6-11 years of age at the first measurement point in 2012/2013; 52.2% female). The study will continue to follow a multi-method (questionnaires, physiological assessments, performance-based computer tasks), multi-facet (assessing various domains of SR), and multi-rater (self-, parent-, and teacher-report) approach. In addition, a broad range of adolescent-specific developmental outcomes is considered. In doing so, we will cover the development of SR and relevant outcomes over the period of 10 years. In addition, we intend to conduct a fifth measurement point (given prolonged funding) to investigate development up to young adulthood.
Discussion
With its broad and multimethodological approach, PIERYOUTH aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the development and role of various SR sub-facets from middle childhood to adolescence. The large sample size and low drop-out rates in the first three measurements points form a sound database for our present prospective research.Trial registration German Clinical Trials Register, registration number DRKS00030847.
Purpose
Given inconsistent results in prior studies, this paper applies the dual process theory to investigate what social media messages yield audience engagement during a political event. It tests how affective cues (emotional valence, intensity and collective self-representation) and cognitive cues (insight, causation, certainty and discrepancy) contribute to public engagement.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors created a dataset of more than three million tweets during the 2020 United States (US) presidential elections. Affective and cognitive cues were assessed via sentiment analysis. The hypotheses were tested in negative binomial regressions. The authors also scrutinized a subsample of far-famed Twitter users. The final dataset, scraping code, preprocessing and analysis are available in an open repository.
Findings
The authors found the prominence of both affective and cognitive cues. For the overall sample, negativity bias was registered, and the tweet’s emotionality was negatively related to engagement. In contrast, in the sub-sample of tweets from famous users, emotionally charged content produced higher engagement. The role of sentiment decreases when the number of followers grows and ultimately becomes insignificant for Twitter participants with many followers. Collective self-representation (“we-talk”) is consistently associated with more likes, comments and retweets in the overall sample and subsamples.
Originality/value
The authors expand the dominating one-sided perspective to social media message processing focused on the peripheral route and hence affective cues. Leaning on the dual process theory, the authors shed light on the effectiveness of both affective (peripheral route) and cognitive (central route) cues on information appeal and dissemination on Twitter during a political event. The popularity of the tweet’s author moderates these relationships.
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify daily ERA5 fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using an array of 13 statistical methods, consisting of 4 conventional (“shallow”) and 9 more recent deep machine learning (DL) algorithms; the classifiers are then applied to corresponding fields of
simulated present and future atmospheres from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The inherent uncertainty of the DL results from the stochastic nature of their optimization is addressed by employing an ensemble approach using 20 runs for each network. The shallow random forest method performs best with an equitable threat score (ETS) around 0.52, followed by the DL networks ALL-CNN and ResNet with an ETS near 0.48. Their success can be understood as a result of conceptual simplicity and parametric parsimony, which obviously best fits the relatively simple classification task. It is found that, on summer days, CatRaRE convective atmospheres over Germany occur with a probability of about 0.5. This probability is projected to increase, regardless of method, both in ERA5-reanalyzed and CORDEX-simulated atmospheres: for the historical period we find a centennial increase of about 0.2 and for the future period one of slightly below 0.1.
Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
Spatial and temporal variation in perceived predation risk is an important determinant of movement and foraging activity of animals. Foraging in this landscape of fear, individuals need to decide where and when to move, and what resources to choose. Foraging theory predicts the outcome of these decisions based on energetic trade-offs, but complex interactions between perceived predation risk and preferences of foragers for certain functional traits of their resources are rarely considered. Here, we studied the interactive effects of perceived predation risk on food trait preferences and foraging behavior in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in experimental landscapes. Individuals (n = 19) were subjected for periods of 24 h to two extreme, risk-uniform landscapes (either risky or safe), containing 25 discrete food patches, filled with seeds of four plant species in even amounts. Seeds varied in functional traits: size, nutrients, and shape. We evaluated whether and how risk modifies forager preference for functional traits. We also investigated whether perceived risk and distance from shelter affected giving-up density (GUD), time in patches, and number of patch visits. In safe landscapes, individuals increased time spent in patches, lowered GUD and visited distant patches more often compared to risky landscapes. Individuals preferred bigger seeds independent of risk, but in the safe treatment they preferred fat-rich over carb-rich seeds. Thus, higher densities of resource levels remained in risky landscapes, while in safe landscapes resource density was lower and less diverse due to selective foraging. Our results suggest that the interaction of perceived risk and dietary preference adds an additional layer to the cascading effects of a landscape of fear which affects biodiversity at resource level.
Strategic social media use positively influences organizational goals such as the long-term accrual of social capital, and thus social media information governance has become an increasingly important organizational objective. It is particularly important for humanitarian nongovernmental organizations (HNGOs), whose work relies on accurate and timely information regarding socially altruistic behavior (donations, volunteerism, etc.). Despite the potential of social media for increasing social capital, tensions in governing social media information across an organization's different operational levels (regional, intermediate, and national) pose a difficult challenge. Prominent governance frameworks offer little guidance, as their focus on control and incremental policymaking is largely incompatible with the processes, roles, standards, and metrics needed for managing self-governing social media. This study offers a notion of dynamic and co-evolutionary process management of multi-level organizations as a means of conceptualizing social media information governance for the accrual of organizational social capital. Based on interviews with members of HNGOs, this study reveals tensions that emerge within eight focus areas of accruing social capital in multi-level organizations, explains how dynamic process management can ease those tensions, and proposes corresponding strategy recommendations.
SOEP-LEE2
(2023)
This article presents the new linked employee-employer study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP-LEE2), which offers new research opportunities for various academic fields. In particular, the study contains two waves of an employer survey for persons in dependent work that is also linkable to the SOEP, a large representative German annual household panel (SOEP-LEE2-Core). Moreover, SOEP-LEE2 includes two waves of self-employed surveys based on self-employed in the SOEP-Core (SOEP-LEE2-Self-employed) and three additional representative employer surveys, independent of the SOEP in terms of sampling employers (SOEP-LEE2-Compare). Survey topics include digitalisation and cybersecurity, human capital formation, COVID-19, and human resource management. Here, we describe the content, survey design, and comparability of the different datasets in the SOEP-LEE2 to potential users in different disciplines of research.