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The novel space-borne Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique has recently shown promise in monitoring the ocean state and surface wind speed with high spatial coverage and unprecedented sampling rate. The L-band signals of GNSS are structurally able to provide a higher quality of observations from areas covered by dense clouds and under intense precipitation, compared to those signals at higher frequencies from conventional ocean scatterometers. As a result, studying the inner core of cyclones and improvement of severe weather forecasting and cyclone tracking have turned into the main objectives of GNSS-R satellite missions such as Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). Nevertheless, the rain attenuation impact on GNSS-R wind speed products is not yet well documented. Evaluating the rain attenuation effects on this technique is significant since a small change in the GNSS-R can potentially cause a considerable bias in the resultant wind products at intense wind speeds. Based on both empirical evidence and theory, wind speed is inversely proportional to derived bistatic radar cross section with a natural logarithmic relation, which introduces high condition numbers (similar to ill-posed conditions) at the inversions to high wind speeds. This paper presents an evaluation of the rain signal attenuation impact on the bistatic radar cross section and the derived wind speed. This study is conducted simulating GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps at different rain rates and reflection geometries, considering that an empirical data analysis at extreme wind intensities and rain rates is impossible due to the insufficient number of observations from these severe conditions. Finally, the study demonstrates that at a wind speed of 30 m/s and incidence angle of 30 degrees, rain at rates of 10, 15, and 20 mm/h might cause overestimation as large as approximate to 0.65 m/s (2%), 1.00 m/s (3%), and 1.3 m/s (4%), respectively, which are still smaller than the CYGNSS required uncertainty threshold. The simulations are conducted in a pessimistic condition (severe continuous rainfall below the freezing height and over the entire glistening zone) and the bias is expected to be smaller in size in real environments.
The knowledge of transformation pathways and identification of transformation products (TPs) of veterinary drugs is important for animal health, food, and environmental matters. The active agent Monensin (MON) belongs to the ionophore antibiotics and is widely used as a veterinary drug against coccidiosis in broiler farming. However, no electrochemically (EC) generated TPs of MON have been described so far. In this study, the online coupling of EC and mass spectrometry (MS) was used for the generation of oxidative TPs. EC-conditions were optimized with respect to working electrode material, solvent, modifier, and potential polarity. Subsequent LC/HRMS (liquid chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry) and MS/MS experiments were performed to identify the structures of derived TPs by a suspected target analysis. The obtained EC-results were compared to TPs observed in metabolism tests with microsomes and hydrolysis experiments of MON. Five previously undescribed TPs of MON were identified in our EC/MS based study and one TP, which was already known from literature and found by a microsomal assay, could be confirmed. Two and three further TPs were found as products in microsomal tests and following hydrolysis, respectively. We found decarboxylation, O-demethylation and acid-catalyzed ring-opening reactions to be the major mechanisms of MON transformation.
Fine particles or sediments are one of the important variables that should be considered for the proper management of water quality and aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, the effect of catchment characteristics on the performance of an already developed model for the estimation of fine sediments dynamics between the water column and sediment bed was tested, using 13 catchments distributed worldwide. The model was calibrated to determine two optimal model parameters. The first is the filtration parameter, which represents the filtration of fine sediments through pores of the stream bed during the recession period of a flood event. The second parameter is the bed erosion parameter that represents the active layer, directly related to the re-suspension of fine sediments during a flood event. A dependency of the filtration parameter with the catchment area was observed in catchments smaller than 100 km(2), whereas no particular relationship was observed for larger catchments (>100 km(2)). In contrast, the bed erosion parameter does not show a noticeable dependency with the area or other environmental characteristics. The model estimated the mass of fine sediments released from the sediment bed to the water column during flood events in the 13 catchments within 23% bias.
Human aldehyde oxidase (hAOX1) is a molybdenum enzyme with high toxicological importance, but its physiological role is still unknown. hAOX1 metabolizes different classes of xenobiotics and is one of the main drug-metabolizing enzymes in the liver, along with cytochrome P450. hAOX1 oxidizes and inactivates a large number of drug molecules and has been responsible for the failure of several phase I clinical trials. The interindividual variability of drug-metabolizing enzymes caused by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is highly relevant in pharmaceutical treatments. In this study, we present the crystal structure of the inactive variant G1269R, revealing the first structure of a molybdenum cofactor (Moco)-free form of hAOX1. These data allowed to model, for the first time, the flexible Gate 1 that controls access to the active site. Furthermore, we inspected the thermostability of wild-type hAOX1 and hAOX1 with various SNPs (L438V, R1231H, G1269R or S1271L) by CD spectroscopy and ThermoFAD, revealing that amino acid exchanges close to the Moco site can impact protein stability up to 10 degrees C. These results correlated with biochemical and structural data and enhance our understanding of hAOX1 and the effect of SNPs in the gene encoding this enzyme in the human population. EnzymesAldehyde oxidase (); xanthine dehydrogenase (); xanthine oxidase (). DatabasesStructural data are available in the Protein Data Bank under the accession number .
During eruptive activity of andesitic stratovolcanoes, the extrusion of lava domes, their collapse and intermittent explosions are common volcanic hazards. Many lava domes grow in a preferred direction, in turn affecting the direction of lava flows and pyroclastic density currents. Access to active lava domes is difficult and hazardous, so detailed data characterizing lava dome growth are typically limited, keeping the processes controlling the directionality of extrusions unclear. Here we combine TerraSAR-X satellite radar observations with high-resolution airborne photogrammetry to assess morphological changes, and perform finite element modeling to investigate the impact of loading stress on shallow magma ascent directions associated with lava dome extrusion and crater formation at Volcan de Colima, Mexico. The TerraSAR-X data, acquired in similar to 1-m resolution spotlight mode, enable us to derive a chronology of the eruptive processes from intensity-based time-lapse observations of the general crater and dome evolution. The satellite images are complemented by close-range airborne photos, processed by the Structure-from-Motion workflow. This allows the derivation of high-resolution digital elevation models, providing insight into detailed loading and unloading features. During the observation period from Jan-2013 to Feb-2016, we identify a dominantly W-directed dome growth and lava flow production until Jan-2015. In Feb-2015, following the removal of the active summit dome, the surface crater widened and elongated along a NE-SW axis. Later in May-2015, a new dome grew toward the SW of the crater while a separate vent developed in the NE of the crater, reflecting a change in the direction of magma ascent and possible conduit bifurcation. Finite element models show a significant stress change in agreement with the observed magma ascent direction changes in response to the changing surface loads, both for loading (dome growth) and unloading (crater forming excavation) cases. These results allow insight into shallow dome growth dynamics and the migration of magma ascent in response to changing volcano summit morphology. They further highlight the importance of detailed volcano summit morphology surveillance, as changes in direction or location of dome extrusion may have major implications regarding the directions of potential volcanic hazards, such as pyroclastic density currents generated by dome collapse.
Planetary boundary layer height by means of lidar and numerical simulations over New Delhi, India
(2019)
In this work, the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBLH) is investigated over Gwal Pahari (Gual Pahari), New Delhi, for almost a year. To this end, ground-based measurements from a multiwavelength Raman lidar were used. The modified wavelet covariance transform (WCT) method was utilized for PBLH retrievals. Results were compared to data from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In order to examine the difficulties of PBLH detection from lidar, we analyzed three cases of PBLH diurnal evolution under different meteorological and aerosol load conditions. In the presence of multiple aerosol layers, the employed algorithm exhibited high efficiency (r = 0.9) in the attribution of PBLH, whereas weak aerosol gradients induced high variability in the PBLH. A sensitivity analysis corroborated the stability of the utilized methodology. The comparison with CALIPSO observations yielded satisfying results (r = 0.8), with CALIPSO slightly overestimating the PBLH. Due to the relatively warmer and drier winter and, correspondingly, colder and rainier pre-monsoon season, the seasonal PBLH cycle during the measurement period was slightly weaker than the cycle expected from long-term climate records.
initMIP-Antarctica
(2019)
Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMlP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMlP-Greenland, initMlP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMlP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.
Right on track?
(2019)
Satellite telemetry is an increasingly utilized technology in wildlife research, and current devices can track individual animal movements at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. However, as we enter the golden age of satellite telemetry, we need an in-depth understanding of the main technological, species-specific and environmental factors that determine the success and failure of satellite tracking devices across species and habitats. Here, we assess the relative influence of such factors on the ability of satellite telemetry units to provide the expected amount and quality of data by analyzing data from over 3,000 devices deployed on 62 terrestrial species in 167 projects worldwide. We evaluate the success rate in obtaining GPS fixes as well as in transferring these fixes to the user and we evaluate failure rates. Average fix success and data transfer rates were high and were generally better predicted by species and unit characteristics, while environmental characteristics influenced the variability of performance. However, 48% of the unit deployments ended prematurely, half of them due to technical failure. Nonetheless, this study shows that the performance of satellite telemetry applications has shown improvements over time, and based on our findings, we provide further recommendations for both users and manufacturers.
Sulfate deprivation triggers high methane production in a disturbed and rewetted coastal peatland
(2019)
In natural coastal wetlands, high supplies of marine sulfate suppress methanogenesis. Coastal wetlands are, however, often subject to disturbance by diking and drainage for agricultural use and can turn to potent methane sources when rewetted for remediation. This suggests that preceding land use measures can suspend the sulfate-related methane suppressing mechanisms. Here, we unravel the hydrological relocation and biogeochemical S and C transformation processes that induced high methane emissions in a disturbed and rewetted peatland despite former brackish impact. The underlying processes were investigated along a transect of increasing distance to the coastline using a combination of concentration patterns, stable isotope partitioning, and analysis of the microbial community structure. We found that diking and freshwater rewetting caused a distinct freshening and an efficient depletion of the brackish sulfate reservoir by dissimilatory sulfate reduction (DSR). Despite some legacy effects of brackish impact expressed as high amounts of sedimentary S and elevated electrical conductivities, contemporary metabolic processes operated mainly under sulfate-limited conditions. This opened up favorable conditions for the establishment of a prospering methanogenic community in the top 30-40 cm of peat, the structure and physiology of which resemble those of terrestrial organic-rich environments. Locally, high amounts of sulfate persisted in deeper peat layers through the inhibition of DSR, probably by competitive electron acceptors of terrestrial origin, for example Fe(III). However, as sulfate occurred only in peat layers below 30-40 cm, it did not interfere with high methane emissions on an ecosystem scale. Our results indicate that the climate effect of disturbed and remediated coastal wetlands cannot simply be derived by analogy with their natural counterparts. From a greenhouse gas perspective, the re-exposure of diked wetlands to natural coastal dynamics would literally open up the floodgates for a replenishment of the marine sulfate pool and therefore constitute an efficient measure to reduce methane emissions.
Molecular identification of late and terminal Pleistocene Equus ovodovi from northeastern China
(2019)
The extant diversity of horses (family Equidae) represents a small fraction of that occurring over their evolutionary history. One such lost lineage is the subgenus Sussemionus, which is thought to have become extinct during the Middle Pleistocene. However, recent molecular studies and morphological analysis have revealed that one of their representatives, E. ovodovi, did exist in Siberia during the Late Pleistocene. Fossil materials of E. ovodovi have thus far only been found in Russia. In this study, we extracted DNA from three equid fossil specimens excavated from northeastern China dated at 12,770-12,596, 29,525-28,887 and 40,201-38,848 cal. yBP, respectively, and retrieved three near-complete mitochondrial genomes from the specimens. Phylogenetic analyses cluster the Chinese haplotypes together with previously published Russian E. ovodovi, strongly supporting the assignment of these samples to this taxon. The molecular identification of E. ovodovi in northeastern China extends the known geographical range of this fossil species by several thousand kilometers to the east. The estimated coalescence time of all E. ovodovi haplotypes is approximately 199 Kya, with the Chinese haplotypes coalescing approximately 130 Kya. With a radiocarbon age of 12,770-12,596 cal. yBP, the youngest sample in this study represents the first E. ovodovi sample dating to the terminal Pleistocene, moving the extinction date of this species forwards considerably compared to previously documented fossils. Overall, comparison of our three mitochondrial genomes with the two published ones suggests a genetic diversity similar to several extant species of the genus Equus.
Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off. We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.
HighlightsFacile electrodeposition for fabricating active Ni nanodots (NiNDs) on Ni foam (NF) is shown.Binder- and heteroatom-free recyclable NiO/NiNDs@NF electrodes are efficiently made.NiO/NiNDs@NF bifunctional catalytic electrodes are used for water splitting. AbstractIn past decades, Ni-based catalytic materials and electrodes have been intensively explored as low-cost hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalysts for water splitting. With increasing demands for Ni worldwide, simplifying the fabrication process, increasing Ni recycling, and reducing waste are tangible sustainability goals. Here, binder-free, heteroatom-free, and recyclable Ni-based bifunctional catalytic electrodes were fabricated via a one-step quick electrodeposition method. Typically, active Ni nanodot (NiND) clusters are electrodeposited on Ni foam (NF) in Ni(NO3)(2) acetonitrile solution. After drying in air, NiO/NiND composites are obtained, leading to a binder-free and heteroatom-free NiO/NiNDs@NF catalytic electrode. The electrode shows high efficiency and long-term stability for catalyzing hydrogen and oxygen evolution reactions at low overpotentials ((10)(HER)=119mV and (50)(OER)=360mV) and can promote water catalysis at 1.70V@10mAcm(-2). More importantly, the recovery of raw materials (NF and Ni(NO3)(2)) is quite easy because of the solubility of NiO/NiNDs composites in acid solution for recycling the electrodes. Additionally, a large-sized (S similar to 70cm(2)) NiO/NiNDs@NF catalytic electrode with high durability has also been constructed. This method provides a simple and fast technology to construct high-performance, low-cost, and environmentally friendly Ni-based bifunctional electrocatalytic electrodes for water splitting.
The Caucasian lynx, Lynx lynx dinniki, has one of the southernmost distributions in the Eurasian lynx range, covering Anatolian Turkey, the Caucasus and Iran. Little is known about the biology and the genetic status of this subspecies. To collect baseline genetic, ecological and behavioural data and benefit future conservation of L. l. dinniki, we monitored 11 lynx territories (396 km(2)) in northwestern Anatolia. We assessed genetic diversity of this population by non-invasively collecting 171 faecal samples and trapped and sampled 12 lynx individuals using box traps. We observed high allelic variation at 11 nuclear microsatellite markers, and found no signs of inbreeding despite the potential isolation of this population. We obtained similar numbers of distinct genotypes from the two sampling sources. Our results indicated that first order female relatives occupy neighbouring territories (female philopatry) and that territorial male lynx were highly unrelated to each other and to female territorial lynx, suggesting long distance male dispersal. Particular male and female resident territorial lynx and their offspring (kittens and subadults) were more likely to be trapped than resident floaters or dispersing (unrelated) lynx. Conversely, we obtained more data for unrelated lynx and higher numbers of territorials using non-invasive sampling (faeces). When invasive and non-invasive samples were analysed separately, the spatial organisation of lynx (in terms of female philopatry and females and males occupying permanent ranges) affected measures of genetic diversity in such a way that estimates of genetic diversity were reduced if only invasive samples were considered. It appears that, at small spatial scales, invasive sampling using box traps may underestimate the genetic diversity in carnivores with permanent ranges and philopatry such as the Eurasian lynx. As non-invasive sampling can also provide additional data on diet and spatial organisation, we advocate the use of such samples for conservation genetic studies of vulnerable, endangered or data deficient territorial species.
Proteasomes are key proteases in regulating protein homeostasis. Their holo-enzymes are composed of 40 different subunits which are arranged in a proteolytic core (CP) flanked by one to two regulatory particles (RP). Proteasomal proteolysis is essential for the degradation of proteins which control time-sensitive processes like cell cycle progression and stress response. In dividing yeast and human cells, proteasomes are primarily nuclear suggesting that proteasomal proteolysis is mainly required in the nucleus during cell proliferation. In yeast, which have a closed mitosis, proteasomes are imported into the nucleus as immature precursors via the classical import pathway. During quiescence, the reversible absence of proliferation induced by nutrient depletion or growth factor deprivation, proteasomes move from the nucleus into the cytoplasm. In the cytoplasm of quiescent yeast, proteasomes are dissociated into CP and RP and stored in membrane-less cytoplasmic foci, named proteasome storage granules (PSGs). With the resumption of growth, PSGs clear and mature proteasomes are transported into the nucleus by Blm10, a conserved 240 kDa protein and proteasome-intrinsic import receptor. How proteasomes are exported from the nucleus into the cytoplasm is unknown.
In the present study, samples fabricated by varying the deposition hatch length during selective laser melting of nickel based superalloy Inconel 718 were investigated. Microstructure and texture of these samples was characterized using scanning electron microscopy, combined with electron back-scattered diffraction, and residual stress assessment, using neutron diffraction method. Textured columnar grains oriented along the sample building direction were observed in the shorter hatch length processed sample. A ten-fold increase in the hatch length reduced the texture intensity by a factor of two attributed to the formation of finer grains in the longer hatch length sample. Larger gradients of transverse residual stress in the longer hatch length sample were also observed. Along the build direction, compressive stresses in the shorter hatch length and negligible stresses for the longer hatch length specimen were observed. Changes to the temperature gradient (G) in response to the hatch length variation, influenced the G to growth rate (R) ratio and the product GxR, in agreement with the microstructures and textures formed. For the residual stress development, geometry of the part also played an important role. In summary, tailored isotropy could be induced in Inconel 718 by a careful selection of parameters during selective laser melting.
Influenza A viruses (IAV) are zoonotic pathogens relevant to human, domestic animal and wildlife health. Many avian IAVs are transmitted among waterfowl via a faecal-oral-route. Therefore, environmental water where waterfowl congregate may play an important role in the ecology and epidemiology of avian IAV. Water and sediment may sustain and transmit virus among individuals or species. It is unclear at what concentrations waterborne viruses are infectious or remain detectable. To address this, we performed lake water and sediment dilution experiments with varying concentrations or infectious doses of four IAV strains from seal, turkey, duck and gull. To test for infectivity of the IAV strains in a concentration dependent manner, we applied cultivation to specific pathogen free (SPF) embryonated chicken eggs and Madin-Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cells. IAV recovery was more effective from embryonated chicken eggs than MDCK cells for freshwater lake dilutions, whereas, MDCK cells were more effective for viral recovery from sediment samples. Low infectious dose (1 PFU/200 mu L) was sufficient in most cases to detect and recover IAV from lake water dilutions. Sediment required higher initial infectious doses (>= 100 PFU/200 mu L).
Disentangling shallow‐water bulk carbonate carbon isotope archives into primary and diagenetic components is a notoriously difficult task and even diagenetically screened records often provide chemostratigraphic patterns that significantly differ from global signals. This is mainly caused by the polygenetic nature of shallow‐water carbonate substrates, local carbon cycle processes causing considerable neritic–pelagic isotope gradients and the presence of hiatal surfaces resulting in extremely low carbonate preservation rates. Provided here is an in‐depth petrographic and geochemical evaluation of different carbonate phases of a mid‐Cretaceous (Barremian–Aptian) shallow‐water limestone succession (Jabal Madar section) deposited on the tropical Arabian carbonate platform in Oman. The superposition of stable isotope signatures of identified carbonate phases causes a complex and often noisy bulk carbon isotope pattern. Blocky sparite cements filling intergranular pores and bioclastic voids evidence intermediate to (arguably) deep burial diagenetic conditions during their formation, owing to different timing or differential faulting promoting the circulation of fluids from variable sources. In contrast, sparite cements filling sub‐vertical veins reveal a rock‐buffered diagenetic fluid composition with an intriguing moderate enrichment in 13C, probably due to fractionation during pressure release in the context of the Miocene exhumation of the carbonate platform under study. The presence of abundant, replacive dedolomite in mud‐supported limestone samples forced negative carbon and oxygen isotope changes that are either associated with the thermal breakdown of organic matter in the deep burial realm or the expulsion of buried meteoric water in the intermediate burial realm. Notwithstanding the documented stratigraphically variable and often facies‐related impact of different diagenetic fluids on the bulk‐rock stable isotope signature, the identification of diagenetic end‐members defined δ13C and δ18O threshold values that allowed the most reliable ‘primary’ bulk carbon isotope signatures to be extracted. Most importantly, this approach exemplifies how to place regional shallow‐water stable isotope patterns with evidence for a complex multi‐stage diagenetic history into a supraregional or even global context.
Sn-based catalysts are effective in the ring-opening polymerization (ROP) but are toxic. Fe(OAc)(2) used as an alternative catalyst is suitable for the ROP of lactide only at higher temperatures (>170 degrees C), associated with racemization. In the ROP of ester and amide group containing morpholinediones with Fe(OAc)(2) to polydepsipeptides at 135 degrees C, ester bonds were selectively opened. Here, it was hypothesized that ROP of lactones is possible with Fe(OAc)(2) when amides are present in the reactions mixture as Fe-ligands could increase the solubility and activity of the metal catalytic center. The ROP of lactide in the melt with Fe(OAc)(2) is possible at temperatures as low as 105 degrees C, in the presence of N-ethylacetamide or N-rnethylbenzamide as non-polymerizable catalytic adjuncts (NPCA), with high conversion (up to 99 mol%) and yield (up to 88 mol%). Polydispersities of polylactide decreased with decreasing reaction temperature to <= 1.1. NMR as well as polarimetric studies showed that no racemization occurred at reaction temperatures <= 145 degrees C. A kinetic study demonstrated a living chain-growth mechanism. MALDI analysis revealed that no side reactions (e.g., cyclization) occurred, though transesterification took place.
From early on in life, children are able to use information from their environment to form predictions about events. For instance, they can use statistical information about a population to predict the sample drawn from that population and infer an agent’s preferences from systematic violations of random sampling. We investigated whether and how young children infer an agent’s sampling biases. Moreover, we examined whether pupil data of toddlers follow the predictions of a computational model based on the causal Bayesian network formalization of predictive processing. We formalized three hypotheses about how different explanatory variables (i.e., prior probabilities, current observations, and agent characteristics) are used to predict others’ actions. We measured pupillary responses as a behavioral marker of ‘prediction errors’ (i.e., the perceived mismatch between what one’s model of an agent predicts and what the agent actually does). Pupillary responses of 24-month-olds, but not 18-month-olds, showed that young children integrated information about current observations, priors and agents to make predictions about agents and their actions. These findings shed light on the mechanisms behind toddlers’ inferences about agent-caused events. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which young children's pupillary responses are used as markers of prediction errors, which were qualitatively compared to the predictions by a computational model based on the causal Bayesian network formalization of predictive processing.