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Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate-related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy-based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy record signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the middle to late Holocene (last 6000 years). This is achieved through a comparison of the correlation of proxy time series from nearby sites of three compilations and model time series extracted at the proxy sites from two transient climate model simulations: a Holocene simulation of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and the Holocene part of the TraCE-21ka simulation. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial timescales to be low (R < 0.2), even for nearby sites, which resulted in low SNR estimates. The estimated SNRs depend on the assumed time uncertainty of the proxy records, the timescale analysed, and the model simulation used. Using the spatial correlation structure of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulation, the estimated SNRs on centennial timescales ranged from 0.05 - assuming no time uncertainty - to 0.5 for a time uncertainty of 400 years. On millennial timescales, the estimated SNRs were generally higher. Use of the TraCE-21ka correlation structure generally resulted in lower SNR estimates than for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. As the number of available high-resolution proxy records continues to grow, a more detailed analysis of the signal content of specific proxy types should become feasible in the near future. The estimated low signal content of Holocene temperature compilations should caution against over-interpretation of these multi-proxy and multisite syntheses until further studies are able to facilitate a better characterisation of the signal content in paleoclimate records.
The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) is often used as an alternative animal model due to several advantages such as morphological changes that can be seen directly under a microscope. Limitations of the model include the usage of expensive and cumbersome microscopes, and restrictions of the comprehensive use of C. elegans for toxicological trials. With the general applicability of the detection of C. elegans from microscope images via machine learning, as well as of smartphone-based microscopes, this article investigates the suitability of smartphone-based microscopy to detect C. elegans in a complete Petri dish. Thereby, the article introduces a smartphone-based microscope (including optics, lighting, and housing) for monitoring C. elegans and the corresponding classification via a trained Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) feature-based Support Vector Machine for the automatic detection of C. elegans. Evaluation showed classification sensitivity of 0.90 and specificity of 0.85, and thereby confirms the general practicability of the chosen approach.
We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Transient receptor potential (TRP) channels have emerged as potential sensors and transducers of inflammatory pain. The aims of this study were to investigate (1) the expression of TRP channels in intervertebral disc (IVD) cells in normal and inflammatory conditions and (2) the function of Transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 (TRPA1) and Transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) in IVD inflammation and matrix homeostasis. RT-qPCR was used to analyze human fetal, healthy, and degenerated IVD tissues for the gene expression of TRPA1 and TRPV1. The primary IVD cell cultures were stimulated with either interleukin-1 beta (IL-1) or tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-) alone or in combination with TRPA1/V1 agonist allyl isothiocyanate (AITC, 3 and 10 mu M), followed by analysis of calcium flux and the expression of inflammation mediators (RT-qPCR/ELISA) and matrix constituents (RT-qPCR). The matrix structure and composition in caudal motion segments from TRPA1 and TRPV1 wild-type (WT) and knock-out (KO) mice was visualized by FAST staining. Gene expression of other TRP channels (A1, C1, C3, C6, V1, V2, V4, V6, M2, M7, M8) was also tested in cytokine-treated cells. TRPA1 was expressed in fetal IVD cells, 20% of degenerated IVDs, but not in healthy mature IVDs. TRPA1 expression was not detectable in untreated cells and it increased upon cytokine treatment, while TRPV1 was expressed and concomitantly reduced. In inflamed IVD cells, 10 mu M AITC activated calcium flux, induced gene expression of IL-8, and reduced disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs 5 (ADAMTS5) and collagen 1A1, possibly via upregulated TRPA1. TRPA1 KO in mice was associated with signs of degeneration in the nucleus pulposus and the vertebral growth plate, whereas TRPV1 KO did not show profound changes. Cytokine treatment also affected the gene expression of TRPV2 (increase), TRPV4 (increase), and TRPC6 (decrease). TRPA1 might be expressed in developing IVD, downregulated during its maturation, and upregulated again in degenerative disc disease, participating in matrix homeostasis. However, follow-up studies with larger sample sizes are needed to fully elucidate the role of TRPA1 and other TRP channels in degenerative disc disease.
Cognitive representations and beliefs are what comprise an individual’s self-concept. A positive self-concept is related to and influences academic achievement, and the relationship between a domain-specific self-concept and achievement in the same domain is positive and strong. However, insufficient attention has been paid to these issues among multilingual children. More importantly, since instruction strongly contributes to the development of metacognition and executive functions (EFs), and since the bilingual advantage hypothesis holds that the constant management of multiple languages entails benefits for EF, we bring together these important issues in the present study. We examine the relationship between domain-specific self-concepts and standardized assessment of reading and spelling competences against the background of potential differences in self-concept between monolingual and multilingual German children. While between-group comparisons revealed no significant differences for self-concept nor reading competency, monolinguals outperformed multilinguals in spelling. Correlations between domain-specific self-concepts and academic achievement in reading comprehension, reading fluency, and spelling were positive and significant for both groups. Regardless of language background, children’s evaluations of their academic achievement (reading and spelling) were realistic. We argue, on a theoretical basis, that metacognition and EFs could facilitate a bilingual advantage and improve educational outcomes.
Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78% (totalling U.S.$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.
Lineament mapping, which is an important part of any structural geological investigation, is made more efficient and easier by the availability of optical as well as radar remote sensing data, such as Landsat and Sentinel with medium and high spatial resolutions. However, the results from these multi-resolution data vary due to their difference in spatial resolution and sensitivity to soil occupation. The accuracy and quality of extracted lineaments depend strongly on the spatial resolution of the imagery. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the optical Landsat-8, Sentinel-2A, and radar Sentinel-1A satellite data for automatic lineament extraction. The framework of automatic approach includes defining the optimal parameters for automatic lineament extraction with a combination of edge detection and line-linking algorithms and determining suitable bands from optical data suited for lineament mapping in the study area. For the result validation, the extracted lineaments are compared against the manually obtained lineaments through the application of directional filtering and edge enhancement as well as to the lineaments digitized from the existing geological maps of the study area. In addition, a digital elevation model (DEM) has been utilized for an accuracy assessment followed by the field verification. The obtained results show that the best correlation between automatically extracted lineaments, manual interpretation, and the preexisting lineament map is achieved from the radar Sentinel-1A images. The tests indicate that the radar data used in this study, with 5872 and 5865 lineaments extracted from VH and VV polarizations respectively, is more efficient for structural lineament mapping than the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A optical imagery, from which 2338 and 4745 lineaments were extracted respectively.
Rapid local adaptation frequently occurs during the spread of invading species. It remains unclear, however, how consistent, and therefore potentially predictable, such patterns of local adaptation are. One approach to this question is to measure patterns of local differentiation in functional traits and plasticity levels in invasive species in multiple regions. Finding consistent patterns of local differentiation in replicate regions suggests that these patterns are adaptive. Further, this outcome indicates that the invading species likely responds predictably to selection along environmental gradients, even though standing genetic variation is likely to have been reduced during introduction. We studied local differentiation in the invasive annual plant Erodium cicutarium in two invaded regions, California and Chile. We collected seeds from across strong gradients in precipitation and temperature in Mediterranean-climate parts of the two regions (10 populations per region). We grew seeds from maternal families from these populations through two generations and exposed the second generation to contrasting levels of water and nutrient availability. We measured growth, flowering time and leaf functional traits across these treatments to obtain trait means and plasticity measures. We found strong differentiation among populations in all traits. Plants from drier environments flowered earlier, were less plastic in flowering time and reached greater size in all treatments. Correlations among traits within regions suggested a coordinated evolutionary response along environmental gradients associated with growing season length. There was little divergence in traits and trait intercorrelations between regions, but strongly parallel divergence in traits within regions. Similar, statistically consistent patterns of local trait differentiation across two regions suggest that local adaptation to environmental gradients has aided the spread of this invasive species, and that the formation of ecotypes in newly invaded environments has been relatively consistent and predictable.
Study region: Tisza and Prut catchments, originating on the slopes of the Carpathian mountains. Study focus: The study reported here investigates (i) climate change impacts on flood risk in the region, and (ii) uncertainty related to hydrological modelling, downscaling techniques and climate projections. The climate projections used in the study were derived from five GCMs, downscaled either dynamically with RCMs or with the statistical downscaling model XDS. The resulting climate change scenarios were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM, which was calibrated and validated for the catchments in advance using observed climate and hydrological data. The changes in the 30-year flood hazards and 98 and 95 percentiles of discharge were evaluated for the far future period (2071-2100) in comparison with the reference period (1981-2010). New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of model outputs under RCP 4.5 show a small to strong increase of the 30-year flood level in the Tisza ranging from 4.5% to 62%, and moderate increase in the Prut ranging from 11% to 22%. The impact results under RCP 8.5 are more uncertain with changes in both directions due to high uncertainties in GCM-RCM climate projections, downscaling methods and the low density of available climate stations.
The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.
Zirconia-based cast refractories are widely used for glass furnace applications. Since they have to withstand harsh chemical as well as thermo-mechanical environments, internal stresses and microcracking are often present in such materials under operating conditions (sometimes in excess of 1700 °C). We studied the evolution of thermal (CTE) and mechanical (Young’s modulus) properties as a function of temperature in a fused-cast refractory containing 94 wt.% of monoclinic ZrO2 and 6 wt.% of a silicate glassy phase. With the aid of X-ray refraction techniques (yielding the internal specific surface in materials), we also monitored the evolution of microcracking as a function of thermal cycles (crossing the martensitic phase transformation around 1000 °C) under externally applied stress. We found that external compressive stress leads to a strong decrease of the internal surface per unit volume, but a tensile load has a similar (though not so strong) effect. In agreement with existing literature on β-eucryptite microcracked ceramics, we could explain these phenomena by microcrack closure in the load direction in the compression case, and by microcrack propagation (rather than microcrack nucleation) under tensile conditions.
Core Ideas
3D MRI relaxation time maps reflect water mobility in root, rhizosphere, and soil.
3D NCT water content maps of the same plant complement relaxation time maps.
The relaxation time T1 decreases from soil to root, whereas water content increases.
Parameters together indicate modification of rhizosphere pore space by gel phase.
The zone of reduced T1 corresponds to the zone remaining dry after rewetting.
In situ investigations of the rhizosphere require high‐resolution imaging techniques, which allow a look into the optically opaque soil compartment. We present the novel combination of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neutron computed tomography (NCT) to achieve synergistic information such as water mobility in terms of three‐dimensional (3D) relaxation time maps and total water content maps. Besides a stationary MRI scanner for relaxation time mapping, we used a transportable MRI system on site in the NCT facility to capture rhizosphere properties before desiccation and after subsequent rewetting. First, we addressed two questions using water‐filled test capillaries between 0.1 and 5 mm: which root diameters can still be detected by both methods, and to what extent are defined interfaces blurred by these imaging techniques? Going to real root system architecture, we demonstrated the sensitivity of the transportable MRI device by co‐registration with NCT and additional validation using X‐ray computed tomography. Under saturated conditions, we observed for the rhizosphere in situ a zone with shorter T1 relaxation time across a distance of about 1 mm that was not caused by reduced water content, as proven by successive NCT measurements. We conclude that the effective pore size in the pore network had changed, induced by a gel phase. After rewetting, NCT images showed a dry zone persisting while the MRI intensity inside the root increased considerably, indicating water uptake from the surrounding bulk soil through the still hydrophobic rhizosphere. Overall, combining NCT and MRI allows a more detailed analysis of the rhizosphere's functioning.
Enhancers are critical for developmental stage-specific gene expression, but their dynamic regulation in plants remains poorly understood. Here we compare genome-wide localization of H3K27ac, chromatin accessibility and transcriptomic changes during flower development in Arabidopsis. H3K27ac prevalently marks promoter-proximal regions, suggesting that H3K27ac is not a hallmark for enhancers in Arabidopsis. We provide computational and experimental evidence to confirm that distal DNase. hypersensitive sites are predictive of enhancers. The predicted enhancers are highly stage-specific across flower development, significantly associated with SNPs for flowering-related phenotypes, and conserved across crucifer species. Through the integration of genome-wide transcription factor (TF) binding datasets, we find that floral master regulators and stage-specific TFs are largely enriched at developmentally dynamic enhancers. Finally, we show that enhancer clusters and intronic enhancers significantly associate with stage-specific gene regulation by floral master TFs. Our study provides insights into the functional flexibility of enhancers during plant development, as well as hints to annotate plant enhancers.
Feigning Democracy
(2017)
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus the sustainable management of forest and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+) is a global climate change mitigation initiative. The United Nations REDD Programme (UN-REDD) is training governments in developing countries, including Nigeria, to implement REDD+. To protect local people, UN-REDD has developed social safeguards including a commitment to strengthen local democracy to prevent an elite capture of REDD+ benefits. This study examines local participation and representation in the UN-REDD international policy board and in the national-level design process for the Nigeria-REDD proposal, to see if practices are congruent with the UN-REDD commitment to local democracy. It is based on research in Nigeria in 2012 and 2013, and finds that local representation in the UN-REDD policy board and in Nigeria-REDD is not substantive. Participation is merely symbolic. For example, elected local government authorities, who ostensibly represent rural people, are neither present in the UN-REDD board nor were they invited to the participatory forums that vetted the Nigeria-REDD. They were excluded because they were politically weak. However, UN-REDD approved the Nigeria-REDD proposal without a strategy to include or strengthen elected local governments. The study concludes with recommendations to help the UN-REDD strengthen elected local government authority in Nigeria in support of democratic local representation.
Apoptotic death of cells damaged by genotoxic stress requires regulatory input from surrounding tissues. The C. elegans scaffold protein KRI-1, ortholog of mammalian KRIT1/CCM1, permits DNA damage-induced apoptosis of cells in the germline by an unknown cell non-autonomous mechanism. We reveal that KRI-1 exists in a complex with CCM-2 in the intestine to negatively regulate the ERK-5/MAPK pathway. This allows the KLF-3 transcription factor to facilitate expression of the SLC39 zinc transporter gene zipt-2.3, which functions to sequester zinc in the intestine. Ablation of KRI-1 results in reduced zinc sequestration in the intestine, inhibition of IR-induced MPK-1/ERK1 activation, and apoptosis in the germline. Zinc localization is also perturbed in the vasculature of krit1(-/-) zebrafish, and SLC39 zinc transporters are mis-expressed in Cerebral Cavernous Malformations (CCM) patient tissues. This study provides new insights into the regulation of apoptosis by cross-tissue communication, and suggests a link between zinc localization and CCM disease.
Background: Severe bacterial infections remain a major challenge in intensive care units because of their high prevalence and mortality. Adequate antibiotic exposure has been associated with clinical success in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the target attainment of standard meropenem dosing in a heterogeneous critically ill population, to quantify the impact of the full renal function spectrum on meropenem exposure and target attainment, and ultimately to translate the findings into a tool for practical application. Methods: A prospective observational single-centre study was performed with critically ill patients with severe infections receiving standard dosing of meropenem. Serial blood samples were drawn over 4 study days to determine meropenem serum concentrations. Renal function was assessed by creatinine clearance according to the Cockcroft and Gault equation (CLCRCG). Variability in meropenem serum concentrations was quantified at the middle and end of each monitored dosing interval. The attainment of two pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic targets (100% T->MIC, 50% T->4xMIC) was evaluated for minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L and standard meropenem dosing (1000 mg, 30-minute infusion, every 8 h). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of CLCRCG on meropenem concentrations and target attainment and developed a tool for risk assessment of target non-attainment. Results: Large inter-and intra-patient variability in meropenem concentrations was observed in the critically ill population (n = 48). Attainment of the target 100% T->MIC was merely 48.4% and 20.6%, given MIC values of 2 mg/L and 8 mg/L, respectively, and similar for the target 50% T->4xMIC. A hyperbolic relationship between CLCRCG (25-255 ml/minute) and meropenem serum concentrations at the end of the dosing interval (C-8h) was derived. For infections with pathogens of MIC 2 mg/L, mild renal impairment up to augmented renal function was identified as a risk factor for target non-attainment (for MIC 8 mg/L, additionally, moderate renal impairment). Conclusions: The investigated standard meropenem dosing regimen appeared to result in insufficient meropenem exposure in a considerable fraction of critically ill patients. An easy-and free-to-use tool (the MeroRisk Calculator) for assessing the risk of target non-attainment for a given renal function and MIC value was developed.
The transfer of Microcystis aeruginosa from freshwater to estuaries has been described worldwide and salinity is reported as the main factor controlling the expansion of M. aeruginosa to coastal environments. Analyzing the expression levels of targeted genes and employing both targeted and non-targeted metabolomic approaches, this study investigated the effect of a sudden salt increase on the physiological and metabolic responses of two toxic M. aeruginosa strains separately isolated from fresh and brackish waters, respectively, PCC 7820 and 7806. Supported by differences in gene expressions and metabolic profiles, salt tolerance was found to be strain specific. An increase in salinity decreased the growth of M. aeruginosa with a lesser impact on the brackish strain. The production of intracellular microcystin variants in response to salt stress correlated well to the growth rate for both strains. Furthermore, the release of microcystins into the surrounding medium only occurred at the highest salinity treatment when cell lysis occurred. This study suggests that the physiological responses of M. aeruginosa involve the accumulation of common metabolites but that the intraspecific salt tolerance is based on the accumulation of specific metabolites. While one of these was determined to be sucrose, many others remain to be identified. Taken together, these results provide evidence that M. aeruginosa is relatively salt tolerant in the mesohaline zone and microcystin (MC) release only occurs when the capacity of the cells to deal with salt increase is exceeded.
The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly – with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) % for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) % for warm spells –, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase.
We show that near-real-time seismic monitoring of fluid injection allowed control of induced earthquakes during the stimulation of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well near Helsinki, Finland. A total of 18,160 m(3) of fresh water was pumped into crystalline rocks over 49 days in June to July 2018. Seismic monitoring was performed with a 24-station borehole seismometer network. Using near-real-time information on induced-earthquake rates, locations, magnitudes, and evolution of seismic and hydraulic energy, pumping was either stopped or varied-in the latter case, between well-head pressures of 60 and 90 MPa and flow rates of 400 and 800 liters/min. This procedure avoided the nucleation of a project-stopping magnitude M-W 2.0 induced earthquake, a limit set by local authorities. Our results suggest a possible physics-based approach to controlling stimulation-induced seismicity in geothermal projects.
A comprehensive molecular analysis of a simple aqueous complexing system. U(VI) acetate. selected to be independently investigated by various spectroscopic (vibrational, luminescence, X-ray absorption, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy) and quantum chemical methods was achieved by an international round-robin test (RRT). Twenty laboratories from six different countries with a focus on actinide or geochemical research participated and contributed to this scientific endeavor. The outcomes of this RRT were considered on two levels of complexity: first, within each technical discipline, conformities as well as discrepancies of the results and their sources were evaluated. The raw data from the different experimental approaches were found to be generally consistent. In particular, for complex setups such as accelerator-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy, the agreement between the raw data was high. By contrast, luminescence spectroscopic data turned out to be strongly related to the chosen acquisition parameters. Second, the potentials and limitations of coupling various spectroscopic and theoretical approaches for the comprehensive study of actinide molecular complexes were assessed. Previous spectroscopic data from the literature were revised and the benchmark data on the U(VI) acetate system provided an unambiguous molecular interpretation based on the correlation of spectroscopic and theoretical results. The multimethodologic approach and the conclusions drawn address not only important aspects of actinide spectroscopy but particularly general aspects of modern molecular analytical chemistry.