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The heat is on
(2023)
Climate conditions severely impact the activity and, consequently, the fitness of wildlife species across the globe. Wildlife can respond to new climatic conditions, but the pace of human-induced change limits opportunities for adaptation or migration. Thus, how these changes affect behavior, movement patterns, and activity levels remains unclear. In this study, we investigate how extreme weather conditions affect the activity of European hares (Lepus europaeus) during their peak reproduction period. When hares must additionally invest energy in mating, prevailing against competitors, or lactating, we investigated their sensitivities to rising temperatures, wind speed, and humidity. To quantify their activity, we used the overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) calculated from tri-axial acceleration measurements of 33 GPS-collared hares. Our analysis revealed that temperature, humidity, and wind speed are important in explaining changes in activity, with a strong response for high temperatures above 25 & DEG;C and the highest change in activity during temperature extremes of over 35 & DEG;C during their inactive period. Further, we found a non-linear relationship between temperature and activity and an interaction of activity changes between day and night. Activity increased at higher temperatures during the inactive period (day) and decreased during the active period (night). This decrease was strongest during hot tropical nights. At a stage of life when mammals such as hares must substantially invest in reproduction, the sensitivity of females to extreme temperatures was particularly pronounced. Similarly, both sexes increased their activity at high humidity levels during the day and low wind speeds, irrespective of the time of day, while the effect of humidity was stronger for males. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the complex relationships between extreme weather conditions and mammal behavior, critical for conservation and management. With ongoing climate change, extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall are predicted to occur more often and last longer. These events will directly impact the fitness of hares and other wildlife species and hence the population dynamics of already declining populations across Europe.
Das Vorsorgeprinzip ist ein mittlerweile weit verbreiteter und etablierter Grundsatz des internationalen und europäischen Umweltrechts. Demnach sollen auch in Situationen wissenschaftlicher Unsicherheit präventive Maßnahmen ergriffen werden, um schwerwiegende Umweltschäden zu vermeiden. Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Rolle des Vorsorgeprinzips im Zusammenhang mit menschenrechtlichen Klimaklagen, die aufgrund langsamer politischer Fortschritte und erfolgreicher Gerichtsentscheidungen zunehmend an Popularität gewinnen.
Zunächst wird ein Überblick über die Entwicklung und den materiellen Gehalt des Vorsorgeprinzips im internationalen und europäischen Recht gegeben. Obwohl das Vorsorgeprinzip seit den 1980er Jahren ein fixer Bestandteil des internationalen Umweltrechts ist, bestehen über dessen genauen Inhalt und Rechtsnatur nach wie vor Kontroversen. Im Unionsrecht wurde das Vorsorgeprinzip insbesondere durch die Rechtsprechung des EuGH konkretisiert.
Im nächsten Teil des Beitrags wird beleuchtet, welche Bedeutung der EGMR dem Vorsorgeprinzip in umweltrechtlichen Fällen bisher zugemessen hat. Hierbei steht die Entscheidung Tǎtar gegen Rumänien im Mittelpunkt. Gegenstand dieser Entscheidung war der Goldabbau in der rumänischen Stadt Baia Mare, der unter anderem unter dem Einsatz von Natriumzyanid erfolgte und zu wesentlichen Schadstoffbelastungen führte. Der EGMR bejahte unter Verweis auf das Vorsorgeprinzip eine Verletzung von Art. 8 EMRK, obwohl der Beschwerdeführer die Kausalität zwischen der Schadstoffbelastung und der behaupteten Schädigung nicht nachweisen konnte. Eine Analyse der nachfolgenden Entscheidungen veranschaulicht jedoch, dass sich das Vorsorgeprinzip noch nicht als fixer Bestandteil in der Rechtsprechung des EGMR etablieren konnte.
Abschließend wird gezeigt, welchen Beitrag das Vorsorgeprinzip zu der bisher wohl erfolgreichsten Klimaklage „Urgenda“ leistete. Das Vorsorgeprinzip wurde vom niederländischen Höchstgericht in diesem Fall insbesondere herangezogen, um Schutzpflichten aus Art. 2 und Art. 8 EMRK abzuleiten und den staatlichen Ermessenspielraum einzuschränken.
Theorie des (Un-)Praktischen
(2022)
Classical option pricing schemes assume that the value of a financial asset follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). However, a growing body of studies suggest that a simple GBM trajectory is not an adequate representation for asset dynamics, due to irregularities found when comparing its properties with empirical distributions. As a solution, we investigate a generalisation of GBM where the introduction of a memory kernel critically determines the behaviour of the stochastic process. We find the general expressions for the moments, log-moments, and the expectation of the periodic log returns, and then obtain the corresponding probability density functions using the subordination approach. Particularly, we consider subdiffusive GBM (sGBM), tempered sGBM, a mix of GBM and sGBM, and a mix of sGBMs. We utilise the resulting generalised GBM (gGBM) in order to examine the empirical performance of a selected group of kernels in the pricing of European call options. Our results indicate that the performance of a kernel ultimately depends on the maturity of the option and its moneyness.
The Arctic is rich in aquatic systems and experiences rapid warming due to climate change. The accelerated warming causes permafrost thaw and the mobilization of organic carbon.
When dissolved organic carbon is mobilized, this DOC can be transported to aquatic systems and degraded in the water bodies and further downstream. Here, we analyze the influence of different landscape components on DOC concentrations and export in a small (6.45 km(2)) stream catchment in the Lena River Delta.
The catchment includes lakes and ponds, with the flow path from Pleistocene yedoma deposits across Holocene non-yedoma deposits to the river outlet. In addition to DOC concentrations, we use radiocarbon dating of DOC as well as stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes (delta O-18 and delta D) to assess the origin of DOC.
We find significantly higher DOC concentrations in the Pleistocene yedoma area of the catchment compared to the Holocene non-yedoma area with medians of 5 and 4.5 mg L-1 (p < 0.05), respectively. When yedoma thaw streams with high DOC concentration reach a large yedoma thermokarst lake, we observe an abrupt decrease in DOC concentration, which we attribute to dilution and lake processes such as mineralization. The DOC ages in the large thermokarst lake (between 3,428 and 3,637 C-14 y BP) can be attributed to a mixing of mobilized old yedoma and Holocene carbon.
Further downstream after the large thermokarst lake, we find progressively younger DOC ages in the stream water to its mouth, paired with decreasing DOC concentrations. This process could result from dilution with leaching water from Holocene deposits and/or emission of ancient yedoma carbon to the atmosphere. Our study shows that thermokarst lakes and ponds may act as DOC filters, predominantly by diluting incoming waters of higher DOC concentrations or by re-mineralizing DOC to CO2 and CH4.
Nevertheless, our results also confirm that the small catchment still contributes DOC on the order of 1.2 kg km(-2) per day from a permafrost landscape with ice-rich yedoma deposits to the Lena River.
Ore precipitation in porphyry copper systems is generally characterized by metal zoning (Cu-Mo to Zn-Pb-Ag), which is suggested to be variably related to solubility decreases during fluid cooling, fluid-rock interactions, partitioning during fluid phase separation and mixing with external fluids. Here, we present new advances of a numerical process model by considering published constraints on the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility of Cu, Pb and Zn in the ore fluid. We quantitatively investigate the roles of vapor-brine separation, halite saturation, initial metal contents, fluid mixing and remobilization as first-order controls of the physical hydrology on ore formation. The results show that the magmatic vapor and brine phases ascend with different residence times but as miscible fluid mixtures, with salinity increases generating metal-undersaturated bulk fluids. The release rates of magmatic fluids affect the location of the thermohaline fronts, leading to contrasting mechanisms for ore precipitation: higher rates result in halite saturation without significant metal zoning, lower rates produce zoned ore shells due to mixing with meteoric water. Varying metal contents can affect the order of the final metal precipitation sequence. Redissolution of precipitated metals results in zoned ore shell patterns in more peripheral locations and also decouples halite saturation from ore precipitation.
Intuitively, strongly constraining contexts should lead to stronger probabilistic representations of sentences in memory. Encountering unexpected words could therefore be expected to trigger costlier shifts in these representations than expected words. However, psycholinguistic measures commonly used to study probabilistic processing, such as the N400 event-related potential (ERP) component, are sensitive to word predictability but not to contextual constraint. Some research suggests that constraint-related processing cost may be measurable via an ERP positivity following the N400, known as the anterior post-N400 positivity (PNP). The PNP is argued to reflect update of a sentence representation and to be distinct from the posterior P600, which reflects conflict detection and reanalysis. However, constraint-related PNP findings are inconsistent. We sought to conceptually replicate Federmeier et al. (2007) and Kuperberg et al. (2020), who observed that the PNP, but not the N400 or the P600, was affected by constraint at unexpected but plausible words. Using a pre-registered design and statistical approach maximising power, we demonstrated a dissociated effect of predictability and constraint: strong evidence for predictability but not constraint in the N400 window, and strong evidence for constraint but not predictability in the later window. However, the constraint effect was consistent with a P600 and not a PNP, suggesting increased conflict between a strong representation and unexpected input rather than greater update of the representation. We conclude that either a simple strong/weak constraint design is not always sufficient to elicit the PNP, or that previous PNP constraint findings could be an artifact of smaller sample size.
In this paper we examine the effect of uncertainty on readers’ predictions about meaning. In particular, we were interested in how uncertainty might influence the likelihood of committing to a specific sentence meaning. We conducted two event-related potential (ERP) experiments using particle verbs such as turn down and manipulated uncertainty by constraining the context such that readers could be either highly certain about the identity of a distant verb particle, such as turn the bed […] down, or less certain due to competing particles, such as turn the music […] up/down. The study was conducted in German, where verb particles appear clause-finally and may be separated from the verb by a large amount of material. We hypothesised that this separation would encourage readers to predict the particle, and that high certainty would make prediction of a specific particle more likely than lower certainty. If a specific particle was predicted, this would reflect a strong commitment to sentence meaning that should incur a higher processing cost if the prediction is wrong. If a specific particle was less likely to be predicted, commitment should be weaker and the processing cost of a wrong prediction lower. If true, this could suggest that uncertainty discourages predictions via an unacceptable cost-benefit ratio. However, given the clear predictions made by the literature, it was surprisingly unclear whether the uncertainty manipulation affected the two ERP components studied, the N400 and the PNP. Bayes factor analyses showed that evidence for our a priori hypothesised effect sizes was inconclusive, although there was decisive evidence against a priori hypothesised effect sizes larger than 1μV for the N400 and larger than 3μV for the PNP. We attribute the inconclusive finding to the properties of verb-particle dependencies that differ from the verb-noun dependencies in which the N400 and PNP are often studied.
In this paper we examine the effect of uncertainty on readers' predictions about meaning. In particular, we were interested in how uncertainty might influence the likelihood of committing to a specific sentence meaning. We conducted two event-related potential (ERP) experiments using particle verbs such as turn down and manipulated uncertainty by constraining the context such that readers could be either highly certain about the identity of a distant verb particle, such as turn the bed [...] down, or less certain due to competing particles, such as turn the music [...] up/down. The study was conducted in German, where verb particles appear clause-finally and may be separated from the verb by a large amount of material. We hypothesised that this separation would encourage readers to predict the particle, and that high certainty would make prediction of a specific particle more likely than lower certainty. If a specific particle was predicted, this would reflect a strong commitment to sentence meaning that should incur a higher processing cost if the prediction is wrong. If a specific particle was less likely to be predicted, commitment should be weaker and the processing cost of a wrong prediction lower. If true, this could suggest that uncertainty discourages predictions via an unacceptable cost-benefit ratio. However, given the clear predictions made by the literature, it was surprisingly unclear whether the uncertainty manipulation affected the two ERP components studied, the N400 and the PNP. Bayes factor analyses showed that evidence for our a priori hypothesised effect sizes was inconclusive, although there was decisive evidence against a priori hypothesised effect sizes larger than 1 mu Vfor the N400 and larger than 3 mu V for the PNP. We attribute the inconclusive finding to the properties of verb-particle dependencies that differ from the verb-noun dependencies in which the N400 and PNP are often studied.
The effect of decay and lexical uncertainty on processing long-distance dependencies in reading
(2020)
To make sense of a sentence, a reader must keep track of dependent relationships between words, such as between a verb and its particle (e.g. turn the music down). In languages such as German, verb-particle dependencies often span long distances, with the particle only appearing at the end of the clause. This means that it may be necessary to process a large amount of intervening sentence material before the full verb of the sentence is known. To facilitate processing, previous studies have shown that readers can preactivate the lexical information of neighbouring upcoming words, but less is known about whether such preactivation can be sustained over longer distances. We asked the question, do readers preactivate lexical information about long-distance verb particles? In one self-paced reading and one eye tracking experiment, we delayed the appearance of an obligatory verb particle that varied only in the predictability of its lexical identity. We additionally manipulated the length of the delay in order to test two contrasting accounts of dependency processing: that increased distance between dependent elements may sharpen expectation of the distant word and facilitate its processing (an antilocality effect), or that it may slow processing via temporal activation decay (a locality effect). We isolated decay by delaying the particle with a neutral noun modifier containing no information about the identity of the upcoming particle, and no known sources of interference or working memory load. Under the assumption that readers would preactivate the lexical representations of plausible verb particles, we hypothesised that a smaller number of plausible particles would lead to stronger preactivation of each particle, and thus higher predictability of the target. This in turn should have made predictable target particles more resistant to the effects of decay than less predictable target particles. The eye tracking experiment provided evidence that higher predictability did facilitate reading times, but found evidence against any effect of decay or its interaction with predictability. The self-paced reading study provided evidence against any effect of predictability or temporal decay, or their interaction. In sum, we provide evidence from eye movements that readers preactivate long-distance lexical content and that adding neutral sentence information does not induce detectable decay of this activation. The findings are consistent with accounts suggesting that delaying dependency resolution may only affect processing if the intervening information either confirms expectations or adds to working memory load, and that temporal activation decay alone may not be a major predictor of processing time.