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Basal ice-shelf melting is the key driver of Antarctica's increasing sea-level contribution. In diminishing the buttressing force of the ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet, the melting increases the ice discharge into the ocean.
Here we contrast the influence of basal melting in two different ice-shelf regions on the time-dependent response of an isothermal, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system. In the idealized numerical simulations, the basal-melt perturbations are applied close to the grounding line in the ice-shelf's (1) ice-stream region, where the ice shelf is fed by the fastest ice masses that stream through the upstream bed trough and (2) shear margins, where the ice flow is slower.
The results show that melting below one or both of the shear margins can cause a decadal to centennial increase in ice discharge that is more than twice as large compared to a similar perturbation in the ice-stream region. We attribute this to the fact that melt-induced ice-shelf thinning in the central grounding-line region is attenuated very effectively by the fast flow of the central ice stream. In contrast, the much slower ice dynamics in the lateral shear margins of the ice shelf facilitate sustained ice-shelf thinning and thereby foster buttressing reduction.
Regardless of the melt location, a higher melt concentration toward the grounding line generally goes along with a stronger response. Our results highlight the vulnerability of outlet glaciers to basal melting in stagnant, buttressing-relevant ice-shelf regions, a mechanism that may gain importance under future global warming.
We welcome you to the 53rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS) conference. After joining with Intentional Forgetting Minitrack last year, this is the fourth year of the Organizational Learning Minitrack. We add Unlearning, and Intentional Forgetting to proudly bring you the latest research focused on organizational learning issues within the Knowledge Innovation and Entrepreneurial Systems Track. The ability to update, change and use current knowledge effectively, especially in light of the ongoing knowledge explosion, can be costly for any organization. Organizations that consider themselves “learning” or “knowledge-based” organizations must develop a competent workforce using KM strategies. Success in organizations involves developing a variety of human factors for changing competencies. With technological change, modification and revisions, many skills require updating for a competitive advantage in the marketplace. The focus on new techniques and insights into how individuals and organizations use their knowledge is our focus for the improvement of organizational learning in this Minitrack.
Omics and male infertility
(2022)
Male infertility is a multifaceted disorder affecting approximately 50% of male partners in infertile couples.
Over the years, male infertility has been diagnosed mainly through semen analysis, hormone evaluations, medical records and physical examinations, which of course are fundamental, but yet inefficient, because 30% of male infertility cases remain idiopathic. This dilemmatic status of the unknown needs to be addressed with more sophisticated and result-driven technologies and/or techniques.
Genetic alterations have been linked with male infertility, thereby unveiling the practicality of investigating this disorder from the "omics" perspective.
Omics aims at analyzing the structure and functions of a whole constituent of a given biological function at different levels, including the molecular gene level (genomics), transcript level (transcriptomics), protein level (proteomics) and metabolites level (metabolomics). In the current study, an overview of the four branches of omics and their roles in male infertility are briefly discussed; the potential usefulness of assessing transcriptomic data to understand this pathology is also elucidated.
After assessing the publicly obtainable transcriptomic data for datasets on male infertility, a total of 1385 datasets were retrieved, of which 10 datasets met the inclusion criteria and were used for further analysis.
These datasets were classified into groups according to the disease or cause of male infertility.
The groups include non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA), obstructive azoospermia (OA), non-obstructive and obstructive azoospermia (NOA and OA), spermatogenic dysfunction, sperm dysfunction, and Y chromosome microdeletion.
Findings revealed that 8 genes (LDHC, PDHA2, TNP1, TNP2, ODF1, ODF2, SPINK2, PCDHB3) were commonly differentially expressed between all disease groups.
Likewise, 56 genes were common between NOA versus NOA and OA (ADAD1, BANF2, BCL2L14, C12orf50, C20orf173, C22orf23, C6orf99, C9orf131, C9orf24, CABS1, CAPZA3, CCDC187, CCDC54, CDKN3, CEP170, CFAP206, CRISP2, CT83, CXorf65, FAM209A, FAM71F1, FAM81B, GALNTL5, GTSF1, H1FNT, HEMGN, HMGB4, KIF2B, LDHC, LOC441601, LYZL2, ODF1, ODF2, PCDHB3, PDHA2, PGK2, PIH1D2, PLCZ1, PROCA1, RIMBP3, ROPN1L, SHCBP1L, SMCP, SPATA16, SPATA19, SPINK2, TEX33, TKTL2, TMCO2, TMCO5A, TNP1, TNP2, TSPAN16, TSSK1B, TTLL2, UBQLN3).
These genes, particularly the above-mentioned 8 genes, are involved in diverse biological processes such as germ cell development, spermatid development, spermatid differentiation, regulation of proteolysis, spermatogenesis and metabolic processes.
Owing to the stage-specific expression of these genes, any mal-expression can ultimately lead to male infertility.
Therefore, currently available data on all branches of omics relating to male fertility can be used to identify biomarkers for diagnosing male infertility, which can potentially help in unravelling some idiopathic cases.
The application of the fractional calculus in the mathematical modelling of relaxation processes in complex heterogeneous media has attracted a considerable amount of interest lately.
The reason for this is the successful implementation of fractional stochastic and kinetic equations in the studies of non-Debye relaxation.
In this work, we consider the rotational diffusion equation with a generalised memory kernel in the context of dielectric relaxation processes in a medium composed of polar molecules. We give an overview of existing models on non-exponential relaxation and introduce an exponential resetting dynamic in the corresponding process.
The autocorrelation function and complex susceptibility are analysed in detail.
We show that stochastic resetting leads to a saturation of the autocorrelation function to a constant value, in contrast to the case without resetting, for which it decays to zero. The behaviour of the autocorrelation function, as well as the complex susceptibility in the presence of resetting, confirms that the dielectric relaxation dynamics can be tuned by an appropriate choice of the resetting rate.
The presented results are general and flexible, and they will be of interest for the theoretical description of non-trivial relaxation dynamics in heterogeneous systems composed of polar molecules.
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth.
Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model.
Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 degrees C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming - from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse.
In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 %-93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt-elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 %-70 % of present-day ice volume.
This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into of the feedback loops governing the "deep future" and, thus, long-term resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Geostatistics as a subfield of statistics accounts for the spatial correlations encountered in many applications of, for example, earth sciences. Valuable information can be extracted from these correlations, also helping to address the often encountered burden of data scarcity. Despite the value of additional data, the use of geostatistics still falls short of its potential. This problem is often connected to the lack of user-friendly software hampering the use and application of geostatistics. We therefore present GSTools, a Python-based software suite for solving a wide range of geostatistical problems. We chose Python due to its unique balance between usability, flexibility, and efficiency and due to its adoption in the scientific community. GSTools provides methods for generating random fields; it can perform kriging, variogram estimation and much more. We demonstrate its abilities by virtue of a series of example applications detailing their use.
In this paper, we present a study comparing the depth to diameter (d/D) ratio of small simple craters (200-1000 m) of an area between -88.5 degrees to -90 degrees latitude at the lunar south pole containing Permanent Shadowed Regions (PSRs) versus craters without PSRs. As PSRs can reach temperatures of 110 K and are capable of harboring volatiles, especially water ice, we analyzed the relationship of depth versus diameter ratios and its possible implications for harboring water ice. Variations in the d/D ratios can also be caused by other processes such as degradation, isostatic adjustment, or differences in surface properties. The conducted d/D ratio analysis suggests that a differentiation between craters containing PSRs versus craters without PSRs occurs. Thus, a possible direct relation between d/D ratio, PSRs, and water ice harboring might exist. Our results suggest that differences in the target's surface properties may explain the obtained results. The resulting d/D ratios of craters with PSRs can help to select target areas for future In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) missions.
Analysis of physicians' probability estimates of a medical outcome based on a sequence of events
(2022)
IMPORTANCE
The probability of a conjunction of 2 independent events is the product of the probabilities of the 2 components and therefore cannot exceed the probability of either component; violation of this basic law is called the conjunction fallacy. A common medical decision-making scenario involves estimating the probability of a final outcome resulting from a sequence of independent events; however, little is known about physicians' ability to accurately estimate the overall probability of success in these situations.
OBJECTIVE
To ascertain whether physicians are able to correctly estimate the overall probability of a medical outcome resulting from 2 independent events.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This survey study consisted of 3 separate substudies, in which 215 physicians were asked via internet-based survey to estimate the probability of success of each of 2 components of a diagnostic or prognostic sequence as well as the overall probability of success of the 2-step sequence. Substudy 1 was performed from April 2 to 4, 2021, substudy 2 from November 2 toll, 2021, and substudy 3 from May 13 to 19, 2021. All physicians were board certified or board eligible in the primary specialty germane to the substudy (ie, obstetrics and gynecology for substudies land 3 and pulmonology for substudy 2), were recruited from a commercial survey service, and volunteered to participate in the study.
EXPOSURES
Case scenarios presented in an online survey.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Respondents were asked to provide their demographic information in addition to 3 probability estimates. The first substudy included a scenario describing a brow presentation discovered during labor; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the brow presentation would resolve and that the delivery would be vaginal. The second substudy involved a diagnostic evaluation of an incidentally discovered pulmonary nodule; the 2 conjuncts were the probabilities that the patient had a malignant condition and that a technically successful transthoracic needle biopsy would reveal a malignant condition. The third substudy included a modification of the first substudy in an attempt to debias the conjunction fallacy prevalent in the first substudy. Respondents' own probability estimates of the individual events were used to calculate the mathematically correct conjunctive probability.
RESULTS
Among 215 respondents, the mean (SD) age was 54.0 (9.5) years; 142 respondents (66.0%) were male. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 168 physicians (78.1%) estimated the probability of the 2-step sequence to be greater than the probability of at least 1 of the 2 component events. Compared with the product of their 2 estimated components, respondents overestimated the combined probability by 12.8% (95% CI, 9.6%-16.1%; P < .001) in substudy 1, 19.8% (95% Cl, 16.6%-23.0%; P < .001) in substudy 2, and 18.0% (95% CI, 13.4%-22.5%; P < .001) in substudy 3, results that were mathematically incoherent (ie, formally illogical and mathematically incorrect).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In this survey study of 215 physicians, respondents consistently overestimated the combined probability of 2 events compared with the probability calculated from their own estimates of the individual events. This biased estimation, consistent with the conjunction fallacy, may have substantial implications for diagnostic and prognostic decision-making.
In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.
Cell-free protein synthesis (CFPS) represents a versatile key technology for the production of toxic proteins. As a cell lysate, rather than viable cells, is used, the toxic effects on the host organism can be circumvented. The open nature of cell-free systems allows for the addition of supplements affecting protein concentration and folding. Here, we present the cell-free synthesis and functional characterization of two AB(5) toxins, namely the cholera toxin (Ctx) and the heat-labile enterotoxin (LT), using two eukaryotic cell-free systems based on Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) and Spodoptera frugiperda (Sf21) cells. Through an iterative optimization procedure, the synthesis of the individual AB(5) toxins was established, and the formation of multimeric structures could be shown by autoradiography. A functional analysis was performed using cell-based assays, thereby demonstrating that the LT complex induced the characteristic cell elongation of target cells after 24 h. The LT complex induced cell death at higher concentrations, starting at an initial concentration of 5 nM. The initial toxic effects of the Ctx multimer could already be detected at 4 nM. The detection and characterization of such AB(5) toxins is of utmost importance, and the monitoring of intracellular trafficking facilitates the further identification of the mechanism of action of these toxins. We showed that the B-subunit of LT (LTB) could be fluorescently labeled using an LTB-Strep fusion protein, which is a proof-of-concept for future Trojan horse applications. Further, we performed a mutational analysis of the CtxA subunit as its template was modified, and an amber stop codon was inserted into CtxA's active site. Subsequently, a non-canonical amino acid was site-specifically incorporated using bio-orthogonal systems. Finally, a fluorescently labeled CtxA protein was produced using copper-catalyzed click reactions as well as a Staudinger ligation. As expected, the modified Ctx multimer no longer induced toxic effects. In our study, we showed that CFPS could be used to study the active centers of toxins by inserting mutations. Additionally, this methodology can be applied for the design of Trojan horses and targeted toxins, as well as enabling the intracellular trafficking of toxins as a prerequisite for the analysis of the toxin's mechanism of action.