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Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of similar to 65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.
Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.
Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key'questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.
Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial-interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial-interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment.
Health app policy
(2022)
An abundant and growing supply of digital health applications (apps) exists in the commercial tech-sector, which can be bewildering for clinicians, patients, and payers. A growing challenge for the health care system is therefore to facilitate the identification of safe and effective apps for health care practitioners and patients to generate the most health benefit as well as guide payer coverage decisions. Nearly all developed countries are attempting to define policy frameworks to improve decision-making, patient care, and health outcomes in this context. This study compares the national policy approaches currently in development/use for health apps in nine countries. We used secondary data, combined with a detailed review of policy and regulatory documents, and interviews with key individuals and experts in the field of digital health policy to collect data about implemented and planned policies and initiatives. We found that most approaches aim for centralized pipelines for health app approvals, although some countries are adding decentralized elements. While the countries studied are taking diverse paths, there is nevertheless broad, international convergence in terms of requirements in the areas of transparency, health content, interoperability, and privacy and security. The sheer number of apps on the market in most countries represents a challenge for clinicians and patients. Our analyses of the relevant policies identified challenges in areas such as reimbursement, safety, and privacy and suggest that more regulatory work is needed in the areas of operationalization, implementation and international transferability of approvals. Cross-national efforts are needed around regulation and for countries to realize the benefits of these technologies.
Notwithstanding their 3 to 5% mortality, the 2.7 million envenomation-related injuries occurring annually-predominantly across Africa, Asia, and Latin America-are also major causes of morbidity. Venom toxin-damaged tissue will develop infections in some 75% of envenomation victims, with E. faecalis being a common culprit of disease; however, such infections are generally considered to be independent of envenomation.
Animal venoms are considered sterile sources of antimicrobial compounds with strong membrane-disrupting activity against multidrug-resistant bacteria.
However, venomous bite wound infections are common in developing nations. Investigating the envenomation organ and venom microbiota of five snake and two spider species, we observed venom community structures that depend on the host venomous animal species and evidenced recovery of viable microorganisms from black-necked spitting cobra (Naja nigricollis) and Indian ornamental tarantula (Poecilotheria regalis) venoms. Among the bacterial isolates recovered from N. nigricollis, we identified two venom-resistant, novel sequence types of Enterococcus faecalis whose genomes feature 16 virulence genes, indicating infectious potential, and 45 additional genes, nearly half of which improve bacterial membrane integrity.
Our findings challenge the dogma of venom sterility and indicate an increased primary infection risk in the clinical management of venomous animal bite wounds. IMPORTANCE Notwithstanding their 3 to 5% mortality, the 2.7 million envenomation-related injuries occurring annually-predominantly across Africa, Asia, and Latin America-are also major causes of morbidity. Venom toxin-damaged tissue will develop infections in some 75% of envenomation victims, with E. faecalis being a common culprit of disease; however, such infections are generally considered to be independent of envenomation. Here, we provide evidence on venom microbiota across snakes and arachnida and report on the convergent evolution mechanisms that can facilitate adaptation to black-necked cobra venom in two independent E. faecalis strains, easily misidentified by biochemical diagnostics.
Therefore, since inoculation with viable and virulence gene-harboring bacteria can occur during envenomation, acute infection risk management following envenomation is warranted, particularly for immunocompromised and malnourished victims in resource-limited settings.
These results shed light on how bacteria evolve for survival in one of the most extreme environments on Earth and how venomous bites must be also treated for infections.
Biological dinitrogen (N-2) fixation is performed solely by specialized bacteria and archaea termed diazotrophs, introducing new reactive nitrogen into aquatic environments.
Conventionally, phototrophic cyanobacteria are considered the major diazotrophs in aquatic environments. However, accumulating evidence indicates that diverse non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs (NCDs) inhabit a wide range of aquatic ecosystems, including temperate and polar latitudes, coastal environments and the deep ocean. NCDs are thus suspected to impact global nitrogen cycling decisively, yet their ecological and quantitative importance remain unknown. Here we review recent molecular and biogeochemical evidence demonstrating that pelagic NCDs inhabit and thrive especially on aggregates in diverse aquatic ecosystems. Aggregates are characterized by reduced-oxygen microzones, high C:N ratio (above Redfield) and high availability of labile carbon as compared to the ambient water.
We argue that planktonic aggregates are important loci for energetically-expensive N-2 fixation by NCDs and propose a conceptual framework for aggregate-associated N-2 fixation. Future studies on aggregate-associated diazotrophy, using novel methodological approaches, are encouraged to address the ecological relevance of NCDs for nitrogen cycling in aquatic environments.
Larix species range dynamics in Siberia since the Last Glacial captured from sedimentary ancient DNA
(2022)
Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance.
However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii.
Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate.
Using ancient sedimentary DNA from up to 50 kya, dramatic distributional shifts are documented in two dominant boreal larch species, likely guided by environmental changes suggesting climate as a strong determinant of species distribution.
Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
(2022)
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted.
We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall.
We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up.
We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
The immense advances in computer power achieved in the last decades have had a significant impact in Earth science, providing valuable research outputs that allow the simulation of complex natural processes and systems, and generating improved forecasts. The development and implementation of innovative geoscientific software is currently evolving towards a sustainable and efficient development by integrating models of different aspects of the Earth system. This will set the foundation for a future digital twin of the Earth. The codification and update of this software require great effort from research groups and therefore, it needs to be preserved for its reuse by future generations of geoscientists. Here, we report on Geo-Soft-CoRe, a Geoscientific Software & Code Repository, hosted at the archive DIGITAL.CSIC. This is an open source, multidisciplinary and multiscale collection of software and code developed to analyze different aspects of the Earth system, encompassing tools to: 1) analyze climate variability; 2) assess hazards, and 3) characterize the structure and dynamics of the solid Earth. Due to the broad range of applications of these software packages, this collection is useful not only for basic research in Earth science, but also for applied research and educational purposes, reducing the gap between the geosciences and the society. By providing each software and code with a permanent identifier (DOI), we ensure its self-sustainability and accomplish the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles. Therefore, we aim for a more transparent science, transferring knowledge in an easier way to the geoscience community, and encouraging an integrated use of computational infrastructure.