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Vernachlässigte Dyslexien
(2011)
The present thesis introduces an iterative expert-based Bayesian approach for assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the 2030 German new vehicle fleet and quantifying the impacts of their main drivers. A first set of expert interviews has been carried out in order to identify technologies which may help to lower car GHG emissions and to quantify their emission reduction potentials. Moreover, experts were asked for their probability assessments that the different technologies will be widely adopted, as well as for important prerequisites that could foster or hamper their adoption. Drawing on the results of these expert interviews, a Bayesian Belief Network has been built which explicitly models three vehicle types: Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (which include mild and full Hybrid Electric Vehicles), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, and Battery Electric Vehicles. The conditional dependencies of twelve central variables within the BBN - battery energy, fuel and electricity consumption, relative costs, and sales shares of the vehicle types - have been quantified by experts from German car manufacturers in a second series of interviews. For each of the seven second-round interviews, an expert's individually specified BBN results. The BBN have been run for different hypothetical 2030 scenarios which differ, e.g., in regard to battery development, regulation, and fuel and electricity GHG intensities. The present thesis delivers results both in regard to the subject of the investigation and in regard to its method. On the subject level, it has been found that the different experts expect 2030 German new car fleet emission to be at 50 to 65% of 2008 new fleet emissions under the baseline scenario. They can be further reduced to 40 to 50% of the emissions of the 2008 fleet though a combination of a higher share of renewables in the electricity mix, a larger share of biofuels in the fuel mix, and a stricter regulation of car CO$_2$ emissions in the European Union. Technically, 2030 German new car fleet GHG emissions can be reduced to a minimum of 18 to 44% of 2008 emissions, a development which can not be triggered by any combination of measures modeled in the BBN alone but needs further commitment. Out of a wealth of existing BBN, few have been specified by individual experts through elicitation, and to my knowledge, none of them has been employed for analyzing perspectives for the future. On the level of methods, this work shows that expert-based BBN are a valuable tool for making experts' expectations for the future explicit and amenable to the analysis of different hypothetical scenarios. BBN can also be employed for quantifying the impacts of main drivers. They have been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for iterative stakeholder-based science approaches.
Sediment records of three European lakes were investigated in order to reconstruct the regional climate development during the Lateglacial and Holocene, to investigate the response of local ecosystems to climatic fluctuations and human impact and to relate regional peculiarities of past climate development to climatic changes on a larger spatial scale. The Lake Hańcza (NE Poland) sediment record was studied with a focus on reconstructing the early Holocene climate development and identifying possible differences to Western Europe. Following the initial Holocene climatic improvement, a further climatic improvement occurred between 10 000 and 9000 cal. a BP. Apparently, relatively cold and dry climate conditions persisted in NE Poland during the first ca. 1500 years of the Holocene, most likely due to a specific regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Prevailing anticyclonic circulation linked to a high-pressure cell above the remaining Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) might have blocked the eastward propagation of warm and moist Westerlies and thus attenuated the early Holocene climatic amelioration in this region until the final decay of the SIS, a pattern different from climate development in Western Europe. The Lateglacial sediment record of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was investigated in order to study the regional climate development and the environmental response to rapid climatic fluctuations. While the temperature rise and environmental response at the onset of the Holocene took place quasi-synchronously, major leads and lags in proxy responses characterize the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial. In particular, the spread of coniferous woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the initial Lateglacial warming by ca. 500–750 years. Major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas took place synchronously with a change in vegetation, while the increase of detrital matter flux was delayed by about 150–300 years. Complex proxy responses are also detected for short-term Lateglacial climatic fluctuations. In summary, periods of abrupt climatic changes are characterized by complex and temporally variable proxy responses, mainly controlled by ecosystem inertia and the environmental preconditions. A second study on the Lake Mondsee sediment record focused on two small-scale climate deteriorations around 8200 and 9100 cal. a BP, which have been triggered by freshwater discharges to the North Atlantic, causing a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Combining microscopic varve counting and AMS 14C dating yielded a precise duration estimate (ca. 150 years) and absolute dating of the 8.2 ka cold event, both being in good agreement with results from other palaeoclimate records. Moreover, a sudden temperature overshoot after the 8.2 ka cold event was identified, also seen in other proxy records around the North Atlantic. This was most likely caused by enhanced resumption of the MOC, which also initiated substantial shifts of oceanic and atmospheric front systems. Although there is also evidence from other proxy records for pronounced recovery of the MOC and atmospheric circulation changes after the 9.1 ka cold event, no temperature overshoot is seen in the Lake Mondsee record, indicating the complex behaviour of the global climate system. The Holocene sediment record of Lake Iseo (northern Italy) was studied to shed light on regional earthquake activity and the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic impact on catchment erosion and detrital flux into the lake. Frequent small-scale detrital layers within the sediments reflect allochthonous sediment supply by extreme surface runoff events. During the early to mid-Holocene, increased detrital flux coincides with periods of cold and wet climate conditions, thus apparently being mainly controlled by climate variability. In contrast, intervals of high detrital flux during the late Holocene partly also correlate with phases of increased human impact, reflecting the complex influences on catchment erosion processes. Five large-scale event layers within the sediments, which are composed of mass-wasting deposits and turbidites, are supposed to have been triggered by strong local earthquakes. While the uppermost of these event layers is assigned to a documented adjacent earthquake in AD 1222, the four other layers are supposed to be related to previously undocumented prehistorical earthquakes.
Wissenschaftler sind regelmäßig mehr an Forschung interessiert als an Lehre. Dies hat verschiedene Gründe, auf die hier nicht im Einzelnen eingegangen werden soll. Einer dieser Gründe liegt im eigenen Professionsverständnis als Forscher/in bzw. Wissenschaftler/in begründet. Im Kern geht es dabei um Entdeckungen, um Innovationen, um die Weiterentwicklung vorhandenen Wissens. Lehre wird dem gegenüber als intermediärer Bereich gesehen, in dem vorhandenes Wissen reproduziert wird, der deshalb mehr dem Berufssystem zugehörig ist und weniger dem Wissenschaftssystem (Fangmann 2006, S. 30). Lehre erscheint deshalb als Belastung, die mit Forschung nicht korrespondiert, eher von Forschung abhält, insbesondere wenn Studierende den eigenen Lehrbemühungen passiv gegenüberstehen und der Ertrag der Lehre zweifelhaft erscheint. Im Folgenden soll die Verwandtschaft von Forschung und Lernen dargestellt und auf ihre korrespondierenden Logiken verwiesen werden. Grundlage dafür ist ein lerntheoretisches Modell, das Lernen subjekttheoretisch als soziales Handeln konzipiert (Holzkamp 1993), das mit Forschen vergleichbar ist. Forschungsbasierte Lehre wird im Kontext einer subjekttheoretischen Didaktik (Ludwig 2006) als Lehre im Format der Forschung vorgestellt, die Lernen unterstützen kann, weil Lernen dem Forschungsprozess ähnelt. Typen, Erträge und Umsetzungsprobleme forschungsbasierter Lehre werden kurz skizziert.
F. E. Peters stellt in seiner Studie Überlegungen zur Idiomatik und Phraseologie des Plattdeutschen an, der Muttersprache des Schriftstellers. Er plädiert dafür, das Plattdeutsche in seiner Besonderheit und unabhängig von Vergleichen mit dem Hochdeutschen zu bewerten und zu würdigen. Kürze, Prägnanz, Anschaulichkeit und intuitive Treffsicherheit des Plattdeutschen werden hervorgehoben und anhand von Beispielen aus dem Alltag belegt. Peters unterstreicht die sich in dem Bewahren von Formeln ausdrückende „einfältige Sprachfrömmigkeit“ des Plattdeutschen, für ihn ein Zeichen junger und primitiverer Sprachen, gewissermaßen „Sprach-Marionetten“ im Kleistschen Sinn ausgestattet mit der Anmut des Unbewussten.
Conventional energy sources are diminishing and non-renewable, take million years to form and cause environmental degradation. In the 21st century, we have to aim at achieving sustainable, environmentally friendly and cheap energy supply by employing renewable energy technologies associated with portable energy storage devices. Lithium-ion batteries can repeatedly generate clean energy from stored materials and convert reversely electric into chemical energy. The performance of lithium-ion batteries depends intimately on the properties of their materials. Presently used battery electrodes are expensive to be produced; they offer limited energy storage possibility and are unsafe to be used in larger dimensions restraining the diversity of application, especially in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). This thesis presents a major progress in the development of LiFePO4 as a cathode material for lithium-ion batteries. Using simple procedure, a completely novel morphology has been synthesized (mesocrystals of LiFePO4) and excellent electrochemical behavior was recorded (nanostructured LiFePO4). The newly developed reactions for synthesis of LiFePO4 are single-step processes and are taking place in an autoclave at significantly lower temperature (200 deg. C) compared to the conventional solid-state method (multi-step and up to 800 deg. C). The use of inexpensive environmentally benign precursors offers a green manufacturing approach for a large scale production. These newly developed experimental procedures can also be extended to other phospho-olivine materials, such as LiCoPO4 and LiMnPO4. The material with the best electrochemical behavior (nanostructured LiFePO4 with carbon coating) was able to delive a stable 94% of the theoretically known capacity.