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Introducing the CTA concept
(2013)
The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a new observatory for very high-energy (VHE) gamma rays. CTA has ambitions science goals, for which it is necessary to achieve full-sky coverage, to improve the sensitivity by about an order of magnitude, to span about four decades of energy, from a few tens of GeV to above 100 TeV with enhanced angular and energy resolutions over existing VHE gamma-ray observatories. An international collaboration has formed with more than 1000 members from 27 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South America. In 2010 the CTA Consortium completed a Design Study and started a three-year Preparatory Phase which leads to production readiness of CTA in 2014. In this paper we introduce the science goals and the concept of CTA, and provide an overview of the project.
Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has had a major breakthrough with the impressive results obtained using systems of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. Ground-based gamma-ray astronomy has a huge potential in astrophysics, particle physics and cosmology. CTA is an international initiative to build the next generation instrument, with a factor of 5-10 improvement in sensitivity in the 100 GeV-10 TeV range and the extension to energies well below 100 GeV and above 100 TeV. CTA will consist of two arrays (one in the north, one in the south) for full sky coverage and will be operated as open observatory. The design of CTA is based on currently available technology. This document reports on the status and presents the major design concepts of CTA.
The 2010 very high energy gamma-ray flare and 10 years ofmulti-wavelength oservations of M 87
(2012)
The giant radio galaxy M 87 with its proximity (16 Mpc), famous jet, and very massive black hole ((3-6) x 10(9) M-circle dot) provides a unique opportunity to investigate the origin of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission generated in relativistic outflows and the surroundings of supermassive black holes. M 87 has been established as a VHE gamma-ray emitter since 2006. The VHE gamma-ray emission displays strong variability on timescales as short as a day. In this paper, results from a joint VHE monitoring campaign on M 87 by the MAGIC and VERITAS instruments in 2010 are reported. During the campaign, a flare at VHE was detected triggering further observations at VHE (H.E.S.S.), X-rays (Chandra), and radio (43 GHz Very Long Baseline Array, VLBA). The excellent sampling of the VHE gamma-ray light curve enables one to derive a precise temporal characterization of the flare: the single, isolated flare is well described by a two-sided exponential function with significantly different flux rise and decay times of tau(rise)(d) = (1.69 +/- 0.30) days and tau(decay)(d) = (0.611 +/- 0.080) days, respectively. While the overall variability pattern of the 2010 flare appears somewhat different from that of previous VHE flares in 2005 and 2008, they share very similar timescales (similar to day), peak fluxes (Phi(>0.35 TeV) similar or equal to (1-3) x 10(-11) photons cm(-2) s(-1)), and VHE spectra. VLBA radio observations of 43 GHz of the inner jet regions indicate no enhanced flux in 2010 in contrast to observations in 2008, where an increase of the radio flux of the innermost core regions coincided with a VHE flare. On the other hand, Chandra X-ray observations taken similar to 3 days after the peak of the VHE gamma-ray emission reveal an enhanced flux from the core (flux increased by factor similar to 2; variability timescale <2 days). The long-term (2001-2010) multi-wavelength (MWL) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE gamma-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE gamma-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.
First ground-based measurement of sub-20 GeV to 100 GeV gamma-Rays from the Vela pulsar with HESS II
(2018)
Aims. We report on the measurement and investigation of pulsed high-energy y-ray emission from the Vela pulsar, PSR B0833-45, based on observations with the largest telescope of H.E.S.S., CT5, in monoscopic mode, and on data obtained with the Fermi-LAT. Methods. Data from 40.3 h of observations carried out with the H.E.S.S. II array from 2013 to 2015 have been used. A dedicated very low-threshold event reconstruction and analysis pipeline was developed to achieve the lowest possible energy threshold. Eight years of Fermi-LAT data were analysed and also used as reference to validate the CT5 telescope response model and analysis methods. Results. A pulsed gamma-ray signal at a significance level of more than 15 sigma is detected from the P2 peak of the Vela pulsar light curve. Of a total of 15 835 events, more than 6000 lie at an energy below 20 GeV, implying a significant overlap between H.E.S.S. II-CT5 and the Fermi-LAT. While the investigation of the pulsar light curve with the LAT confirms characteristics previously known up to 20 GeV in the tens of GeV energy range, CT5 data show a change in the pulse morphology of P2, i.e. an extreme sharpening of its trailing edge, together with the possible onset of a new component at 3.4 sigma significance level. Assuming a power-law model for the P2 spectrum, an excellent agreement is found for the photon indices (Gamma similar or equal to 4.1) obtained with the two telescopes above 10 GeV and an upper bound of 8% is derived on the relative offset between their energy scales. Using data from both instruments, it is shown however that the spectrum of P2 in the 10-100 GeV has a pronounced curvature; this is a confirmation of the sub-exponential cut-off form found at lower energies with the LAT. This is further supported by weak evidence of an emission above 100 GeV obtained with CT5. In contrast, converging indications are found from both CT5 and LAT data for the emergence of a hard component above 50 GeV in the leading wing (LW2) of P2, which possibly extends beyond 100 GeV. Conclusions. The detection demonstrates the performance and understanding of CT5 from 100 GeV down to the sub-20 GeV domain, i.e. unprecedented low energy for ground-based gamma-ray astronomy. The extreme sharpening of the trailing edge of the P2 peak found in the H.E.S.S. II light curve of the Vela pulsar and the possible extension beyond 100 GeV of at least one of its features, LW2, provide further constraints to models of gamma-Ray emission from pulsars.
The blazar Mrk 501 (z = 0.034) was observed at very-high-energy (VHE, E greater than or similar to 100 GeV) gamma-ray wavelengths during a bright flare on the night of 2014 June 23-24 (MJD 56832) with the H.E.S.S. phase-II array of Cherenkov telescopes. Data taken that night by H.E.S.S. at large zenith angle reveal an exceptional number of gamma-ray photons at multi-TeV energies, with rapid flux variability and an energy coverage extending significantly up to 20 TeV. This data set is used to constrain Lorentz invariance violation (LIV) using two independent channels: a temporal approach considers the possibility of an energy dependence in the arrival time of gamma-rays, whereas a spectral approach considers the possibility of modifications to the interaction of VHE gamma-rays with extragalactic background light (EBL) photons. The non-detection of energy-dependent time delays and the non-observation of deviations between the measured spectrum and that of a supposed power-law intrinsic spectrum with standard EBL attenuation are used independently to derive strong constraints on the energy scale of LIV (E-QG) in the subluminal scenario for linear and quadratic perturbations in the dispersion relation of photons. For the case of linear perturbations, the 95% confidence level limits obtained are E-QG,E-1 > 3.6 x 10(17) GeV using the temporal approach and E-QG,E-1 > 2.6 x 10(19) GeV using the spectral approach. For the case of quadratic perturbations, the limits obtained are E-QG,E-2 > 8.5 x 10(10) GeV using the temporal approach and E-QG,E-2 > 7.8 x 10(11) GeV using the spectral approach.
A hotspot at a position compatible with the BL. Lac object 1ES 2322-409 was serendipitously detected with H.E.S.S. during observations performed in 2004 and 2006 on the blazar PKS 2316-423. Additional data on 1ES 2322-409 were taken in 2011 and 2012, leading to a total live-time of 22.3 h. Point-like very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission is detected from a source centred on the IFS 2322-409 position, with an excess of 116.7 events at a significance of 6.0 sigma. The average VHE gamma-ray spectrum is well described with a power law with a photon index Gamma = 3.40 +/- 0.66(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and an integral flux Phi(E > 200 GeV) = (3.11 +/- 0.71(stat) 0.62(sys)) x 10(-2)cm(-2)s(-1), which corresponds to 1.1 per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 200 GeV. Multiwavelength data obtained with Fermi LAT, Swift XRT and UVOT, RXTE PCA, ATOM, and additional data from WISE, GROND, and Catalina are also used to characterize the broad-band non-thermal emission of lES 2322-409. The multiwavelength behaviour indicates day-scale variability. Swift UVOT and XRT data show strong variability at longer scales. A spectral energy distribution (SED) is built from contemporaneous observations obtained around a high state identified in Swift data. A modelling of the SED is performed with a stationary homogeneous one-zone synchrotronself-Compton leptonic model. The redshift of the source being unknown, two plausible values were tested for the modelling. A systematic scan of the model parameters space is performed, resulting in a well-constrained combination of values providing a good description of the broad-band behaviour of 1ES 2322-409.
PKS 1830-211 is a known macrolensed quasar located at a redshift of z = 2.5. Its highenergy gamma-ray emission has been detected with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) instrument and evidence for lensing was obtained by several authors from its high-energy data. Observations of PKS 1830-211 were taken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) array of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes in 2014 August, following a flare alert by the Fermi-LAT Collaboration. The H.E.S.S observations were aimed at detecting a gamma-ray flare delayed by 20-27 d from the alert flare, as expected from observations at other wavelengths. More than 12 h of good-quality data were taken with an analysis threshold of similar to 67 GeV. The significance of a potential signal is computed as a function of the date and the average significance over the whole period. Data are compared to simultaneous observations by Fermi-LAT. No photon excess or significant signal is detected. An upper limit on PKS 1830-211 flux above 67 GeV is computed and compared to the extrapolation of the Fermi-LAT flare spectrum.
Context. NGC 253 is one of only two starburst galaxies found to emit gamma-rays from hundreds of MeV to multi-TeV energies. Accurate measurements of the very-high-energy (VHE; E> 100 GeV) and high-energy (HE; E > 60 MeV) spectra are crucial to study the underlying particle accelerators, probe the dominant emission mechanism(s) and to study cosmic-ray interaction and transport. Aims. The measurement of the VHE gamma-ray emission of NGC 253 published in 2012 by H.E.S.S. was limited by large systematic uncertainties. Here, the most up to date measurement of the gamma-ray spectrum of NGC 253 is investigated in both HE and VHE gamma-rays. Assuming a hadronic origin of the gamma-ray emission, the measurement uncertainties are propagated into the interpretation of the accelerated particle population. Methods. The data of H.E.S.S. observations are reanalysed using an updated calibration and analysis chain. The improved Fermi-LAT analysis employs more than 8 yr of data processed using pass 8. The cosmic-ray particle population is evaluated from the combined HE-VHE gamma-ray spectrum using NAIMA in the optically thin case. Results. The VHE gamma-ray energy spectrum is best fit by a power-law distribution with a flux normalisation of (1.34 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.27(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1) TeV-1 at 1 TeV - about 40% above, but compatible with the value obtained in Abramowski et al. (2012). The spectral index Gamma = 2.39 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.25(sys) is slightly softer than but consistent with the previous measurement within systematic errors. In the Fermi energy range an integral flux of F(E > 60 MeV) = (1.56 +/- 0.28(stat) +/- 0.15(sys)) x 10(-8) cm(-2) s(-1) is obtained. At energies above similar to 3 GeV the HE spectrum is consistent with a power-law ranging into the VHE part of the spectrum measured by H.E.S.S. with an overall spectral index Gamma = 2.22 +/- 0.06(stat). Conclusions. Two scenarios for the starburst nucleus are tested, in which the gas in the starburst nucleus acts as either a thin or a thick target for hadronic cosmic rays accelerated by the individual sources in the nucleus. In these two models, the level to which NGC 253 acts as a calorimeter is estimated to a range of f(cal) = 0.1 to 1 while accounting for the measurement uncertainties. The presented spectrum is likely to remain the most accurate measurements until the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) has collected a substantial set of data towards NGC 253.
Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are brief flashes of gamma-rays and are considered to be the most energetic explosive phenomena in the Universe(1). The emission from GRBs comprises a short (typically tens of seconds) and bright prompt emission, followed by a much longer afterglow phase. During the afterglow phase, the shocked outflow-produced by the interaction between the ejected matter and the circumburst medium-slows down, and a gradual decrease in brightness is observed(2). GRBs typically emit most of their energy via.-rays with energies in the kiloelectronvolt-to-megaelectronvolt range, but a few photons with energies of tens of gigaelectronvolts have been detected by space-based instruments(3). However, the origins of such high-energy (above one gigaelectronvolt) photons and the presence of very-high-energy (more than 100 gigaelectronvolts) emission have remained elusive(4). Here we report observations of very-high-energy emission in the bright GRB 180720B deep in the GRB afterglow-ten hours after the end of the prompt emission phase, when the X-ray flux had already decayed by four orders of magnitude. Two possible explanations exist for the observed radiation: inverse Compton emission and synchrotron emission of ultrarelativistic electrons. Our observations show that the energy fluxes in the X-ray and gamma-ray range and their photon indices remain comparable to each other throughout the afterglow. This discovery places distinct constraints on the GRB environment for both emission mechanisms, with the inverse Compton explanation alleviating the particle energy requirements for the emission observed at late times. The late timing of this detection has consequences for the future observations of GRBs at the highest energies.
Context. We present a detailed view of the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) HESS J1825-137. We aim to constrain the mechanisms dominating the particle transport within the nebula, accounting for its anomalously large size and spectral characteristics. Aims. The nebula was studied using a deep exposure from over 12 years of H.E.S.S. I operation, together with data from H.E.S.S. II that improve the low-energy sensitivity. Enhanced energy-dependent morphological and spatially resolved spectral analyses probe the very high energy (VHE, E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray properties of the nebula. Methods. The nebula emission is revealed to extend out to 1.5 degrees from the pulsar, similar to 1.5 times farther than previously seen, making HESS J1825-137, with an intrinsic diameter of similar to 100 pc, potentially the largest gamma-ray PWN currently known. Characterising the strongly energy-dependent morphology of the nebula enables us to constrain the particle transport mechanisms. A dependence of the nebula extent with energy of R proportional to E alpha with alpha = -0.29 +/- 0.04(stat) +/- 0.05(sys) disfavours a pure diffusion scenario for particle transport within the nebula. The total gamma-ray flux of the nebula above 1 TeV is found to be (1.12 +/- 0.03(stat) +/- 0.25(sys)) +/- 10(-11) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to similar to 64% of the flux of the Crab nebula. Results. HESS J1825-137 is a PWN with clearly energy-dependent morphology at VHE gamma-ray energies. This source is used as a laboratory to investigate particle transport within intermediate-age PWNe. Based on deep observations of this highly spatially extended PWN, we produce a spectral map of the region that provides insights into the spectral variation within the nebula.
Young core-collapse supernovae with dense-wind progenitors may be able to accelerate cosmic-ray hadrons beyond the knee of the cosmic-ray spectrum, and this may result in measurable gamma-ray emission. We searched for gamma-ray emission from ten super- novae observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) within a year of the supernova event. Nine supernovae were observed serendipitously in the H.E.S.S. data collected between December 2003 and December 2014, with exposure times ranging from 1.4 to 53 h. In addition we observed SN 2016adj as a target of opportunity in February 2016 for 13 h. No significant gamma-ray emission has been detected for any of the objects, and upper limits on the >1 TeV gamma-ray flux of the order of similar to 10(-13) cm(-)(2)s(-1) are established, corresponding to upper limits on the luminosities in the range similar to 2 x 10(39) to similar to 1 x 10(42) erg s(-1). These values are used to place model-dependent constraints on the mass-loss rates of the progenitor stars, implying upper limits between similar to 2 x 10(-5) and similar to 2 x 10(-3) M-circle dot yr(-1) under reasonable assumptions on the particle acceleration parameters.
The flat spectrum radio quasar 3C 279 is known to exhibit pronounced variability in the high-energy (100MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray band, which is continuously monitored with Fermi-LAT. During two periods of high activity in April 2014 and June 2015 target-of-opportunity observations were undertaken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray domain. While the observation in 2014 provides an upper limit, the observation in 2015 results in a signal with 8 : 7 sigma significance above an energy threshold of 66 GeV. No VHE variability was detected during the 2015 observations. The VHE photon spectrum is soft and described by a power-law index of 4.2 +/- 0.3. The H.E.S.S. data along with a detailed and contemporaneous multiwavelength data set provide constraints on the physical parameters of the emission region. The minimum distance of the emission region from the central black hole was estimated using two plausible geometries of the broad-line region and three potential intrinsic spectra. The emission region is confidently placed at r greater than or similar to 1 : 7 X 1017 cm from the black hole, that is beyond the assumed distance of the broad-line region. Time-dependent leptonic and lepto-hadronic one-zone models were used to describe the evolution of the 2015 flare. Neither model can fully reproduce the observations, despite testing various parameter sets. Furthermore, the H.E.S.S. data were used to derive constraints on Lorentz invariance violation given the large redshift of 3C 279.
The unidentified very-high-energy (VHE; E > 0.1 TeV) gamma -ray source, HESS J1826-130, was discovered with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) in the Galactic plane. The analysis of 215 h of HESS data has revealed a steady gamma -ray flux from HESS J1826-130, which appears extended with a half-width of 0.21 degrees +/- 0.02 <br /> (stat)degrees <br /> stat degrees +/- 0.05 <br /> (sys)degrees sys degrees . The source spectrum is best fit with either a power-law function with a spectral index Gamma = 1.78 +/- 0.10(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) and an exponential cut-off at 15.2 <br /> (+5.5)(-3.2) -3.2+5.5 TeV, or a broken power-law with Gamma (1) = 1.96 +/- 0.06(stat) +/- 0.20(sys), Gamma (2) = 3.59 +/- 0.69(stat) +/- 0.20(sys) for energies below and above E-br = 11.2 +/- 2.7 TeV, respectively. The VHE flux from HESS J1826-130 is contaminated by the extended emission of the bright, nearby pulsar wind nebula, HESS J1825-137, particularly at the low end of the energy spectrum. Leptonic scenarios for the origin of HESS J1826-130 VHE emission related to PSR J1826-1256 are confronted by our spectral and morphological analysis. In a hadronic framework, taking into account the properties of dense gas regions surrounding HESS J1826-130, the source spectrum would imply an astrophysical object capable of accelerating the parent particle population up to greater than or similar to 200 TeV. Our results are also discussed in a multiwavelength context, accounting for both the presence of nearby supernova remnants, molecular clouds, and counterparts detected in radio, X-rays, and TeV energies.
Context. Pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe) represent the most prominent population of Galactic very-high-energy gamma-ray sources and are thought to be an efficient source of leptonic cosmic rays. Vela X is a nearby middle-aged PWN, which shows bright X-ray and TeV gamma-ray emission towards an elongated structure called the cocoon. Aims. Since TeV emission is likely inverse-Compton emission of electrons, predominantly from interactions with the cosmic microwave background, while X-ray emission is synchrotron radiation of the same electrons, we aim to derive the properties of the relativistic particles and of magnetic fields with minimal modelling. Methods. We used data from the Suzaku XIS to derive the spectra from three compact regions in Vela X covering distances from 0.3 to 4 pc from the pulsar along the cocoon. We obtained gamma-ray spectra of the same regions from H.E.S.S. observations and fitted a radiative model to the multi-wavelength spectra. Results. The TeV electron spectra and magnetic field strengths are consistent within the uncertainties for the three regions, with energy densities of the order 10(-12) erg cm(-3). The data indicate the presence of a cutoff in the electron spectrum at energies of similar to 100 TeV and a magnetic field strength of similar to 6 mu G. Constraints on the presence of turbulent magnetic fields are weak. Conclusions. The pressure of TeV electrons and magnetic fields in the cocoon is dynamically negligible, requiring the presence of another dominant pressure component to balance the pulsar wind at the termination shock. Sub-TeV electrons cannot completely account for the missing pressure, which may be provided either by relativistic ions or from mixing of the ejecta with the pulsar wind. The electron spectra are consistent with expectations from transport scenarios dominated either by advection via the reverse shock or by diffusion, but for the latter the role of radiative losses near the termination shock needs to be further investigated in the light of the measured cutoff energies. Constraints on turbulent magnetic fields and the shape of the electron cutoff can be improved by spectral measurements in the energy range greater than or similar to 10 keV.
Dwarf spheroidal galaxies are among the most promising targets for detecting signals of Dark Matter (DM) annihilations. The H.E.S.S. experiment has observed five of these systems for a total of about 130 hours. The data are re-analyzed here, and, in the absence of any detected signals, are interpreted in terms of limits on the DM annihilation cross section. Two scenarios are considered: i) DM annihilation into mono-energetic gamma-rays and ii) DM in the form of pure WIMP multiplets that, annihilating into all electroweak bosons, produce a distinctive gamma-ray spectral shape with a high-energy peak at the DM mass and a lower-energy continuum. For case i), upper limits at 95% confidence level of about <sigma upsilon > less than or similar to 3 x 10(-25) cm(3) s(-1) are obtained in the mass range of 400 GeV to 1TeV. For case ii), the full spectral shape of the models is used and several excluded regions are identified, but the thermal masses of the candidates are not robustly ruled out.
The progress of science is tied to the standardization of measurements, instruments, and data. This is especially true in the Big Data age, where analyzing large data volumes critically hinges on the data being standardized. Accordingly, the lack of community-sanctioned data standards in paleoclimatology has largely precluded the benefits of Big Data advances in the field. Building upon recent efforts to standardize the format and terminology of paleoclimate data, this article describes the Paleoclimate Community reporTing Standard (PaCTS), a crowdsourced reporting standard for such data. PaCTS captures which information should be included when reporting paleoclimate data, with the goal of maximizing the reuse value of paleoclimate data sets, particularly for synthesis work and comparison to climate model simulations. Initiated by the LinkedEarth project, the process to elicit a reporting standard involved an international workshop in 2016, various forms of digital community engagement over the next few years, and grassroots working groups. Participants in this process identified important properties across paleoclimate archives, in addition to the reporting of uncertainties and chronologies; they also identified archive-specific properties and distinguished reporting standards for new versus legacy data sets. This work shows that at least 135 respondents overwhelmingly support a drastic increase in the amount of metadata accompanying paleoclimate data sets. Since such goals are at odds with present practices, we discuss a transparent path toward implementing or revising these recommendations in the near future, using both bottom-up and top-down approaches.
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
The influence of the azobenzene concentration on the photo-induced surface relief grating (SRG) formation in polymer films was investigated. Two series of polymers with 4-alkoxy-4'-cyanoazobenzene side groups were synthesized. In series A, the degree of substitution was varied, while in series B, azobenzene and biphenyl groups were introduced in varying composition, but the concentration of non-reacted HEMA-groups was kept constant. Photo-induction of the dichroism and the SRG was studied as function of the azobenzene concentration. An optimum was found for the SRG formation (76%), while the highest dichroism was induced at the lowest azobenzene concentration of 20%. The restriction of rotational and translational molecular motions observed at higher azobenzene concentration was explained by pi-pi stacking of the azobenzene moieties and interaction of unreacted HEMA groups
Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional sodo-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project - (CMIP)-M-4). There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33-114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68% uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04-0.23 degrees C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600-1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1-4% being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9-23% and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04-0.16 degrees C by 2300.
Die Zeitschrift möchte die fruchtbare und facettenreiche Kultur des Judentums sowie seine Berührungspunkte zur Umwelt in den unterschiedlichen Bereichen dokumentieren. Daneben dient die Zeitschrift als Forum zur Positionierung der Fächer Jüdische Studien und Judaistik innerhalb des wissenschaftlichen Diskurses sowie zur Diskussion ihrer historischen und gesellschaftlichen Verantwortung.
This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.