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First ground-based measurement of sub-20 GeV to 100 GeV gamma-Rays from the Vela pulsar with HESS II
(2018)
Aims. We report on the measurement and investigation of pulsed high-energy y-ray emission from the Vela pulsar, PSR B0833-45, based on observations with the largest telescope of H.E.S.S., CT5, in monoscopic mode, and on data obtained with the Fermi-LAT. Methods. Data from 40.3 h of observations carried out with the H.E.S.S. II array from 2013 to 2015 have been used. A dedicated very low-threshold event reconstruction and analysis pipeline was developed to achieve the lowest possible energy threshold. Eight years of Fermi-LAT data were analysed and also used as reference to validate the CT5 telescope response model and analysis methods. Results. A pulsed gamma-ray signal at a significance level of more than 15 sigma is detected from the P2 peak of the Vela pulsar light curve. Of a total of 15 835 events, more than 6000 lie at an energy below 20 GeV, implying a significant overlap between H.E.S.S. II-CT5 and the Fermi-LAT. While the investigation of the pulsar light curve with the LAT confirms characteristics previously known up to 20 GeV in the tens of GeV energy range, CT5 data show a change in the pulse morphology of P2, i.e. an extreme sharpening of its trailing edge, together with the possible onset of a new component at 3.4 sigma significance level. Assuming a power-law model for the P2 spectrum, an excellent agreement is found for the photon indices (Gamma similar or equal to 4.1) obtained with the two telescopes above 10 GeV and an upper bound of 8% is derived on the relative offset between their energy scales. Using data from both instruments, it is shown however that the spectrum of P2 in the 10-100 GeV has a pronounced curvature; this is a confirmation of the sub-exponential cut-off form found at lower energies with the LAT. This is further supported by weak evidence of an emission above 100 GeV obtained with CT5. In contrast, converging indications are found from both CT5 and LAT data for the emergence of a hard component above 50 GeV in the leading wing (LW2) of P2, which possibly extends beyond 100 GeV. Conclusions. The detection demonstrates the performance and understanding of CT5 from 100 GeV down to the sub-20 GeV domain, i.e. unprecedented low energy for ground-based gamma-ray astronomy. The extreme sharpening of the trailing edge of the P2 peak found in the H.E.S.S. II light curve of the Vela pulsar and the possible extension beyond 100 GeV of at least one of its features, LW2, provide further constraints to models of gamma-Ray emission from pulsars.
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests.
The potential of ecological models for supporting environmental decision making is increasingly acknowledged. However, it often remains unclear whether a model is realistic and reliable enough. Good practice for developing and testing ecological models has not yet been established. Therefore, TRACE, a general framework for documenting a model's rationale, design, and testing was recently suggested. Originally TRACE was aimed at documenting good modelling practice. However, the word 'documentation' does not convey TRACE's urgency. Therefore, we re-define TRACE as a tool for planning, performing, and documenting good modelling practice. TRACE documents should provide convincing evidence that a model was thoughtfully designed, correctly implemented, thoroughly tested, well understood, and appropriately used for its intended purpose. TRACE documents link the science underlying a model to its application, thereby also linking modellers and model users, for example stakeholders, decision makers, and developers of policies. We report on first experiences in producing TRACE documents. We found that the original idea underlying TRACE was valid, but to make its use more coherent and efficient, an update of its structure and more specific guidance for its use are needed. The updated TRACE format follows the recently developed framework of model 'evaludation': the entire process of establishing model quality and credibility throughout all stages of model development, analysis, and application. TRACE thus becomes a tool for planning, documenting, and assessing model evaludation, which includes understanding the rationale behind a model and its envisaged use. We introduce the new structure and revised terminology of TRACE and provide examples. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.