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This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.
To identify genetic variants associated with head circumference in infancy, we performed a meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (N = 10,768 individuals of European ancestry enrolled in pregnancy and/or birth cohorts) and followed up three lead signals in six replication studies (combined N = 19,089). rs7980687 on chromosome 12q24 (P = 8.1 x 10(-9)) and rs1042725 on chromosome 12q15 (P = 2.8 x 10(-10)) were robustly associated with head circumference in infancy. Although these loci have previously been associated with adult height(1), their effects on infant head circumference were largely independent of height (P = 3.8 x 10(-7) for rs7980687 and P = 1.3 x 10(-7) for rs1042725 after adjustment for infant height). A third signal, rs11655470 on chromosome 17q21, showed suggestive evidence of association with head circumference (P = 3.9 x 10(-6)). SNPs correlated to the 17q21 signal have shown genome-wide association with adult intracranial volume(2), Parkinson's disease and other neurodegenerative diseases(3-5), indicating that a common genetic variant in this region might link early brain growth with neurological disease in later life.
We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the 'tipping' potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.
This Letter reports the discovery of a remarkably hard spectrum source, HESS J1641-463, by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very high energy (VHE) domain. HESS J1641-463 remained unnoticed by the usual analysis techniques due to confusion with the bright nearby source HESS J1640-465. It emerged at a significance level of 8.5 standard deviations after restricting the analysis to events with energies above 4 TeV. It shows a moderate flux level of phi(E > 1TeV) = (3.64 +/- 0.44(stat)+/- 0.73(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 1.8% of the Crab Nebula flux above the same energy, and a hard spectrum with a photon index of Gamma = 2.07 +/- 0.11(stat)+/- 0.20(sys). It is a point-like source, although an extension up to a Gaussian width of sigma = 3 arcmin cannot be discounted due to uncertainties in the H.E.S.S. point-spread function. The VHE gamma-ray flux of HESS J1641-463 is found to be constant over the observed period when checking time binnings from the year-by-year to the 28 minute exposure timescales. HESS J1641-463 is positionally coincident with the radio supernova remnant SNR G338.5+0.1. No X-ray candidate stands out as a clear association; however, Chandra and XMM-Newton data reveal some potential weak counterparts. Various VHE gamma-ray production scenarios are discussed. If the emission from HESS J1641-463 is produced by cosmic ray protons colliding with the ambient gas, then their spectrum must extend close to 1 PeV. This object may represent a source population contributing significantly to the galactic cosmic ray flux around the knee.
Search for dark matter annihilation signatures in HESS observations of
dwarf spheroidal galaxies
(2014)
Dwarf spheroidal galaxies of the Local Group are close satellites of the Milky Way characterized by a large mass-to-light ratio and are not expected to be the site of nonthermal high-energy gamma-ray emission or intense star formation. Therefore they are among the most promising candidates for indirect dark matter searches. During the last years the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes observed five of these dwarf galaxies for more than 140 hours in total, searching for TeV gamma-ray emission from annihilation of dark matter particles. The new results of the deep exposure of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, the first observations of the Coma Berenices and Fornax dwarves and the reanalysis of two more dwarf spheroidal galaxies already published by the H.E.S.S. Collaboration, Carina and Sculptor, are presented. In the absence of a significant signal new constraints on the annihilation cross section applicable to weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are derived by combining the observations of the five dwarf galaxies. The combined exclusion limit depends on the WIMP mass and the best constraint is reached at 1-2 TeV masses with a cross-section upper bound of similar to 3.9 x 10(-24) cm(3) s(-1) at a 95% confidence level.
Discovery of high and very high-energy emission from the BL Lacertae object SHBL J001355.9-185406
(2013)
The detection of the high-frequency peaked BL Lac object (HBL) SHBL J001355.9-185406 (z = 0.095) at high (HE; 100 MeV < E < 300 GeV) and very high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) and the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is reported. Dedicated observations were performed with the H. E. S. S. telescopes, leading to a detection at the 5.5 sigma significance level. The measured flux above 310 GeV is (8.3 +/- 1.7(stat) +/- 1.7(sys)) x 10(-13) photons cm(-2) s(-1) (about 0.6% of that of the Crab Nebula), and the power-law spectrum has a photon index of Gamma = 3.4 +/- 0.5(stat) +/- 0.2(sys). Using 3.5 years of publicly available Fermi-LAT data, a faint counterpart has been detected in the LAT data at the 5.5 sigma significance level, with an integrated flux above 300 MeV of (9.3 +/- 3.4(stat) +/- 0.8(sys)) x 10(-10) photons cm(-2) s(-1) and a photon index of Gamma = 1.96 +/- 0.20(stat) +/- 0.08(sys). X-ray observations with Swift-XRT allow the synchrotron peak energy in vF(v) representation to be located at similar to 1.0 keV. The broadband spectral energy distribution is modelled with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model and the optical data by a black-body emission describing the thermal emission of the host galaxy. The derived parameters are typical of HBLs detected at VHE, with a particle-dominated jet.
Context. About 40% of the observation time of the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is dedicated to studying active galactic nuclei (AGN), with the aim of increasing the sample of known extragalactic very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) sources and constraining the physical processes at play in potential emitters.
Aims. H.E.S.S. observations of AGN, spanning a period from April 2004 to December 2011, are investigated to constrain their gamma-ray fluxes. Only the 47 sources without significant excess detected at the position of the targets are presented.
Methods. Upper limits on VHE fluxes of the targets were computed and a search for variability was performed on the nightly time scale.
Results. For 41 objects, the flux upper limits we derived are the most constraining reported to date. These constraints at VHE are compared with the flux level expected from extrapolations of Fermi-LAT measurements in the two-year catalog of AGN. The H.E.S.S. upper limits are at least a factor of two lower than the extrapolated Fermi-LAT fluxes for 11 objects Taking into account the attenuation by the extragalactic background light reduces the tension for all but two of them, suggesting intrinsic curvature in the high-energy spectra of these two AGN.
Conclusions. Compilation efforts led by current VHE instruments are of critical importance for target-selection strategies before the advent of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA).
Context. On March 4, 2013 the Fermi-EAT and AGILE reported a flare from the direction of the Crab nebula in which the high-energy (HE; E > 100 MeV) flux was six times above its quiescent level. Simultaneous observations in other energy bands give us hints about the emission processes during the flare episode and the physics of pulsar wind nebulae in general.
Aims. We search for variability in the emission of the Crab nebula at very-high energies (VHF,; E > 100 GeV), using contemporaneous data taken with the H.E.S.S. array of Cherenkov telescopes.
Methods. Observational data taken with the H.E.S.S. instrument on five consecutive days during the flare were analysed for the flux and spectral shape of the emission from the Crab nebula. Night-wise light curves are presented with energy thresholds of 1 TeV and 5 TeV.
Results. The observations conducted with H.E.S.S. on March 6 to March 10, 2013 show no significant changes in the flux. They limit the variation in the integral flux above 1 TeV to less than 63% and the integral flux above 5 TeV to less than 78% at a 95% confidence level.
The results of follow-up observations of the TeV gamma-ray source HESS J1640-465 from 2004 to 2011 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) are reported in this work. The spectrum is well described by an exponential cut-off power law with photon index Gamma = 2.11 +/- 0.09(stat) +/- 0.10(sys), and a cut-off energy of E-2 = 6.0(-1.2)(+2.0) TeV. The TeV emission is significantly extended and overlaps with the northwestern part of the shell of the SNR G338.3-0.0. The new HESS results, a re-analysis of archival XMM-Newton data and multiwavelength observations suggest that a significant part of the gamma-ray emission from HESS J1640-465 originates in the supernova remnant shell. In a hadronic scenario, as suggested by the smooth connection of the GeV and TeV spectra, the product of total proton energy and mean target density could be as high as W(p)n(H) similar to 4 x 10(52)(d/10kpc)(2) erg cm(-3).