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The TeV binary system LS I +61 degrees 303 is known for its regular, non-thermal emission pattern that traces the orbital period of the compact object in its 26.5 day orbit around its B0 Ve star companion. The system typically presents elevated TeV emission around apastron passage with flux levels between 5% and 15% of the steady flux from the Crab Nebula (> 300 GeV). In this article, VERITAS observations of LS I + 61 degrees. 303 taken in late 2014 are presented, during which bright TeV flares around apastron at flux levels peaking above 30% of the Crab Nebula flux were detected. This is the brightest such activity from this source ever seen in the TeV regime. The strong outbursts have rise and fall times of less than a day. The short timescale of the flares, in conjunction with the observation of 10 TeV photons from LS I + 61 degrees 303 during the flares, provides constraints on the properties of the accelerator in the source.
The very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) blazar Markarian 501 was observed between April 17 and May 5 (MJD 54 938-54 956), 2009, as part of an extensive multiwavelength campaign from radio to VHE. Strong VHE yray activity was detected on May 1st with Whipple and VERITAS, when the flux (E > 400 GeV) increased to 10 times the preflare baseline flux (3.9 x 10(-11) ph cm(-2) s(-1)), reaching five times the flux of the Crab Nebula. This coincided with a decrease in the optical polarization and a rotation of the polarization angle by 15. This VHE flare showed a fast flux variation with an increase of a factor similar to 4 in 25 min, and a falling time of similar to 50 min. We present the observations of the quiescent state previous to the flare and of the high state after the flare, focusing on the flux and spectral variability from Whipple, VERITAS, Fermi-LAT, RXTE, and Swift combined with optical and radio data.
Ecosystems' exposure to climate change - Modeling as support for nature conservation management
(2016)
The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species' dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large 'central' population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations.
The extent of gene flow during the range expansion of non-native species influences the amount of genetic diversity retained in expanding populations. Here, we analyse the population genetic structure of the raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in north-eastern and central Europe. This invasive species is of management concern because it is highly susceptible to fox rabies and an important secondary host of the virus. We hypothesized that the large number of introduced animals and the species’ dispersal capabilities led to high population connectivity and maintenance of genetic diversity throughout the invaded range. We genotyped 332 tissue samples from seven European countries using 16 microsatellite loci. Different algorithms identified three genetic clusters corresponding to Finland, Denmark and a large ‘central’ population that reached from introduction areas in western Russia to northern Germany. Cluster assignments provided evidence of long-distance dispersal. The results of an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis supported a scenario of equal effective population sizes among different pre-defined populations in the large central cluster. Our results are in line with strong gene flow and secondary admixture between neighbouring demes leading to reduced genetic structuring, probably a result of its fairly rapid population expansion after introduction. The results presented here are remarkable in the sense that we identified a homogenous genetic cluster inhabiting an area stretching over more than 1500km. They are also relevant for disease management, as in the event of a significant rabies outbreak, there is a great risk of a rapid virus spread among raccoon dog populations.
The F-type star KIC. 8462852 has recently been identified as an exceptional target for search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) observations. We describe an analysis methodology for optical SETI, which we have used to analyze nine hours of serendipitous archival observations of KIC. 8462852 made with the VERITAS gamma-ray observatory between 2009 and 2015. No evidence of pulsed optical beacons, above a pulse intensity at the Earth of approximately 1 photon m(-2), is found. We also discuss the potential use of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays in searching for extremely short duration optical transients in general.
We present results from multiwavelength observations of the BL Lacertae object 1ES 1741 + 196, including results in the very high energy gamma-ray regime using the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS). The VERITAS time-averaged spectrum, measured above 180 GeV, is well modelled by a power law with a spectral index of 2.7 +/- 0.7(stat) +/- 0.2(syst). The integral flux above 180 GeV is (3.9 +/- 0.8(stat) +/- 1.0(syst)) x 10(-8) m(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 1.6 per cent of the Crab nebula flux on average. The multiwavelength spectral energy distribution of the source suggests that 1ES 1741+196 is an extreme-high-frequency-peaked BL Lacertae object. The observations analysed in this paper extend over a period of six years, during which time no strong flares were observed in any band. This analysis is therefore one of the few characterizations of a blazar in a non-flaring state.
Hintergrund: Kraft und Schnelligkeit stellen bedeutsame leistungsdeterminierende Faktoren im Fußball dar. Durch Komplextraining (Kombination aus Kraft- und plyometrischen Übungen in einer Trainingseinheit) lassen sich Kraft- und Schnelligkeitswerte von Athleten steigern. Unklar ist jedoch, ob ein Komplextraining (KT) gegenüber einem herkömmlichen blockweisen Krafttraining (BT) zu größeren sportmotorischen Leistungssteigerungen führt. Das Ziel der Studie war es, die Effekte von KT versus BT auf Variablen der Kraft, Schnelligkeit und Gewandtheit von Nachwuchsleistungsfußballern zu untersuchen.
Methode: Zusätzlich zum regulären Fußballtraining (ca. 6 × pro Woche, je 60 – 90 min.) führten 18 männliche Nachwuchsleistungsfußballer über sechs Wochen (2 × pro Woche, je 30 min.) entweder ein progressives KT (n = 10, Alter: 18,5 ± 2,2 Jahre) oder BT (n = 8, Alter: 18,1 ± 1,6 Jahre) durch. Vor und nach dem Training wurden Tests zur Erfassung der Kraft (Einer-Wiederholungs-Maximum [EWM] Kniebeuge), der Sprungkraft (Hockstrecksprung [HSS]), der Schnelligkeit (30-m-Sprint) und der Gewandtheit (T-Test) durchgeführt. Es wurden parameterfreie Verfahren zur Bestimmung von Unterschieden innerhalb (Wilcoxon-Test) und zwischen (Mann-Whitney-U-Test) den beiden Gruppen gerechnet.
Ergebnisse: Sowohl KT als auch BT sind sichere (keine trainings- aber sechs spielbedingte Verletzungen) und geeignete (Trainingsteilnahme in KT und BT: ≥ 80 %) Trainingsmaßnahmen in Ergänzung zum regulären Fußballtraining. Die statistische Analyse ergab signifikante Verbesserungen vom Prä- zum Posttest für die KT-Gruppe im EWM (p = 0,043) und im HSS (p = 0,046) sowie für die BT-Gruppe in der Sprintzeit über 5 m (p = 0,039) und 10 m (p = 0,026). Zudem zeigten sich für beide Gruppen signifikante Verbesserungen im T-Test (KT: p = 0,046; BT: p = 0,027). Der Gruppenvergleich (KT vs. BT) über die Zeit (Post- minus Prätest) offenbarte keine bedeutsamen Unterschiede.
Schlussfolgerung: Sowohl sechswöchiges KT als auch BT führten zu signifikanten Verbesserungen sportmotorischer Leistungen bei Nachwuchsleistungsfußballern. Allerdings konnten keine zusätzlich leistungssteigernden Effekte von KT im Vergleich zu BT ermittelt werden. In zukünftigen Studien sollte geprüft werden, ob die beobachteten testspezifischen Veränderungen, d. h. Verbesserung der Kraft/Sprungkraft in der KT-Gruppe und Verbesserung der Schnelligkeit in der BT-Gruppe der gewählten Übungsanordnung geschuldet sind oder einen generellen Effekt darstellen.
Background: Muscle strength and speed are important determinants of soccer performance. It has previously been shown that complex training (CT, combination of strength and plyometric exercises within a single training session) is effective to enhance strength and speed performance in athletes. However, it is unresolved whether CT is more effective than conventional strength training that is delivered in one single block (BT) to increase proxies of athletic performance. Thus, the aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of CT versus BT on measures of muscle strength/power, speed, and agility in elite youth soccer players. Methods: Eighteen male elite youth soccer players conducted six weeks (2 sessions/week, 30 min, each) of progressive CT (n = 10, age: 18,5 +/- 2.2 years) or BT (n=8, age: 18.1 +/- 1.6 years) in addition to their regular soccer training (approx. 6 sessions/week, 60-90 min, each). Before and after training, tests were conducted for the assessment of strength (one -repetition maximum [1RM] squat), power (countermovement jump [CMJ]), speed (30-m linear sprint), and agility (T test). Non-parametric analyses were used to calculate differences within (Wilcoxon test) and between (Mann-Whitney-U test) groups. Results: Both CT and BT proved to be safe (i.e. no training-related, but six match -related injuries reported) and feasible (i.e. attendance rate of 80% in both groups) training regimens when implemented in addition to regular soccer training. The statistical analysis revealed significant improvements from pre-training to post-training tests for the CT group in 1 RM squat (p =0.043) and CMJ height (p =0,046). For the BT -group, significantly enhanced sprint times were observed over 5 m (p = 0.039) and 10 m (p = 0.026), Furthermore, both groups significantly improved their t test time (CT: p =0.046; BT: p =0.027). However, group comparisons (CT vs. BT) over time (post-training minus pre-training test) did not show any significant differences. Conclusion: Six weeks of CT and BT resulted in significant improvements in proxies of athletic performance. Yet CT did not produce any additional effects compared to BT. Future research is needed to examine whether the observed test-specific changes, i.e. improvements in strength/power for the CT-group and improvements in speed for the BT-group, are due to the applied configuration of strength, plyometric, and sprint exercises or if they rather indicate a general training response.
The 2014 April 1, M-w 8.1 Iquique (Chile) earthquake struck in the Northern Chile seismic gap. With a rupture length of less than 200 km, it left unbroken large segments of the former gap. Early studies were able to model the main rupture features but results are ambiguous with respect to the role of aseismic slip and left open questions on the remaining hazard at the Northern Chile gap. A striking observation of the 2014 earthquake has been its extensive preparation phase, with more than 1300 events with magnitude above M-L 3, occurring during the 15 months preceding the main shock. Increasing seismicity rates and observed peak magnitudes accompanied the last three weeks before the main shock. Thanks to the large data sets of regional recordings, we assess the precursor activity, compare foreshocks and aftershocks and model rupture preparation and rupture effects. To tackle inversion challenges for moderate events with an asymmetric network geometry, we use full waveforms techniques to locate events, map the seismicity rate and derive source parameters, obtaining moment tensors for more than 300 events (magnitudes M-w 4.0-8.1) in the period 2013 January 1-2014 April 30. This unique data set of fore- and aftershocks is investigated to distinguish rupture process models and models of strain and stress rotation during an earthquake. Results indicate that the spatial distributions of foreshocks delineated the shallower part of the rupture areas of the main shock and its largest aftershock, well matching the spatial extension of the aftershocks cloud. Most moment tensors correspond to almost pure double couple thrust mechanisms, consistent with the slab orientation. Whereas no significant differences are observed among thrust mechanisms in different areas, nor among thrust foreshocks and aftershocks, the early aftershock sequence is characterized by the presence of normal fault mechanisms, striking parallel to the trench but dipping westward. These events likely occurred in the shallow wedge structure close to the slab interface and are consequence of the increased extensional stress in this region after the largest events. The overall stress inversion result suggests a minor stress rotation after the main shock, but a significant release of the deviatoric stress. The temporal change in the distribution of focal mechanisms can also be explained in terms of the spatial heterogeneity of the stress field: under such interpretation, the potential of a large megathrust earthquake breaking a larger segment offshore Northern Chile remains high.
Background. The bay cat Catopuma badia is endemic to Borneo, whereas its sister species the Asian golden cat Catopuma temminckii is distributed from the Himalayas and southern China through Indochina, Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra. Based onmorphological data, up to five subspecies of the Asian golden cat have been recognized, but a taxonomic assessment, including molecular data and morphological characters, is still lacking. Results. We combined molecular data (whole mitochondrial genomes), morphological data (pelage) and species distribution projections (up to the Late Pleistocene) to infer how environmental changes may have influenced the distribution of these sister species over the past 120 000 years. The molecular analysis was based on sequenced mitogenomes of 3 bay cats and 40 Asian golden cats derived mainly from archival samples. Our molecular data suggested a time of split between the two species approximately 3.16 Ma and revealed very low nucleotide diversity within the Asian golden cat population, which supports recent expansion of the population. Discussion. The low nucleotide diversity suggested a population bottleneck in the Asian golden cat, possibly caused by the eruption of the Toba volcano in Northern Sumatra (approx. 74 kya), followed by a continuous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene. Species distribution projections, the reconstruction of the demographic history, a genetic isolation-by-distance pattern and a gradual variation of pelage pattern support the hypothesis of a post-Toba population expansion of the Asian golden cat from south China/Indochina to PeninsularMalaysia and Sumatra. Our findings reject the current classification of five subspecies for the Asian golden cat, but instead support either a monotypic species or one comprising two subspecies: (i) the Sunda golden cat, distributed south of the Isthmus of Kra: C. t. temminckii and (ii) Indochinese, Indian, Himalayan and Chinese golden cats, occurring north of the Isthmus: C. t. moormensis.
The Galactic Center ridge has been observed extensively in the past by both GeV and TeV gamma-ray instruments revealing a wealth of structure, including a diffuse component and the point sources G0.9+0.1 (a composite supernova remnant) and Sgr A* (believed to be associated with the supermassive black hole located at the center of our Galaxy). Previous very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray observations with the H.E.S.S.. experiment have also detected an extended TeV gamma-ray component along the Galactic plane in the >300 GeV gamma-ray regime. Here we report on observations of the Galactic Center ridge from 2010 to 2014 by the VERITAS telescope array in the >2 TeV energy range. From these observations we (1) provide improved measurements of the differential energy spectrum for Sgr A* in the >2 TeV gamma-ray regime, (2) provide a detection in the >2 TeV gamma-ray emission from the composite SNR G0.9+0.1 and an improved determination of its multi-TeV gamma-ray energy spectrum, and. (3) report on the detection of VER J1746-289, a localized enhancement of >2 TeV gamma-ray emission along the Galactic plane.
Evolutionary history and conservation significance of the Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas
(2016)
The leopard Panthera pardus is widely distributed across Africa and Asia; however, there is a gap in its natural distribution in Southeast Asia, where it occurs on the mainland and on Java but not on the interjacent island of Sumatra. Several scenarios have been proposed to explain this distribution gap. Here, we complemented an existing dataset of 68 leopard mtDNA sequences from Africa and Asia with mtDNA sequences (NADH5+ ctrl, 724bp) from 19 Javan leopards, and hindcasted leopard distribution to the Pleistocene to gain further insights into the evolutionary history of the Javan leopard. Our data confirmed that Javan leopards are evolutionarily distinct from other Asian leopards, and that they have been present on Java since the Middle Pleistocene. Species distribution projections suggest that Java was likely colonized via a Malaya-Java land bridge that by-passed Sumatra, as suitable conditions for leopards during Pleistocene glacial periods were restricted to northern and western Sumatra. As fossil evidence supports the presence of leopards on Sumatra at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene, our projections are consistent with a scenario involving the extinction of leopards on Sumatra as a consequence of the Toba super volcanic eruption (similar to 74kya). The impact of this eruption was minor on Java, suggesting that leopards managed to survive here. Currently, only a few hundred leopards still live in the wild and only about 50 are managed in captivity. Therefore, this unique and distinctive subspecies requires urgent, concerted conservation efforts, integrating insitu and ex situ conservation management activities in a One Plan Approach to species conservation management.
The inner region of the Milky Way halo harbors a large amount of dark matter (DM). Given its proximity, it is one of the most promising targets to look for DM. We report on a search for the annihilations of DM particles using gamma-ray observations towards the inner 300 pc of the Milky Way, with the H.E.S.S. array of ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. The analysis is based on a 2D maximum likelihood method using Galactic Center (GC) data accumulated by H.E.S.S. over the last 10 years (2004-2014), and does not show any significant gamma-ray signal above background. Assuming Einasto and Navarro-Frenk-White DM density profiles at the GC, we derive upper limits on the annihilation cross section <sigma nu >. These constraints are the strongest obtained so far in the TeV DM mass range and improve upon previous limits by a factor 5. For the Einasto profile, the constraints reach <sigma nu > values of 6 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the W+W- channel for a DM particle mass of 1.5 TeV, and 2 x 10(-26) cm(3) s(-1) in the tau(+)tau(-) channel for a 1 TeV mass. For the first time, ground-based gamma-ray observations have reached sufficient sensitivity to probe <sigma nu > values expected from the thermal relic density for TeV DM particles.
Since more than 15 years, the Cluster mission passes through Earth's radiation belts at least once every 2 days for several hours, measuring the electron intensity at energies from 30 to 400 keV. These data have previously been considered not usable due to contamination caused by penetrating energetic particles (protons at >100 keV and electrons at >400 keV). In this study, we assess the level of distortion of energetic electron spectra from the Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector, determining the efficiency of its shielding. We base our assessment on the analysis of experimental data and a radiation transport code (Geant4). In simulations, we use the incident particle energy distribution of the AE9/AP9 radiation belt models. We identify the Roederer L values, L⋆, and energy channels that should be used with caution: at 3≤L⋆≤4, all energy channels (40–400 keV) are contaminated by protons (≃230 to 630 keV and >600 MeV); at L⋆≃1 and 4–6, the energy channels at 95–400 keV are contaminated by high-energy electrons (>400 keV). Comparison of the data with electron and proton observations from RBSP/MagEIS indicates that the subtraction of proton fluxes at energies ≃ 230–630 keV from the IES electron data adequately removes the proton contamination. We demonstrate the usefulness of the corrected data for scientific applications.
In this study we present analytical solutions for convection and diffusion equations. We gather here the analytical solutions for the one-dimensional convection equation, the two-dimensional convection problem, and the one- and two-dimensional diffusion equations. Using obtained analytical solutions, we test the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code (the VERB-4D code), which solves the modified Fokker-Planck equation with additional convection terms. The ninth-order upwind numerical scheme for the one-dimensional convection equation shows much more accurate results than the results obtained with the third-order scheme. The universal limiter eliminates unphysical oscillations generated by high-order linear upwind schemes. Decrease in the space step leads to convergence of a numerical solution of the two-dimensional diffusion equation with mixed terms to the analytical solution. We compare the results of the third- and ninth-order schemes applied to magnetospheric convection modeling. The results show significant differences in electron fluxes near geostationary orbit when different numerical schemes are used.
Background: Dementia is a psychiatric condition the development of which is associated with numerous aspects of life. Our aim was to estimate dementia risk factors in German primary care patients.
Methods: The case-control study included primary care patients (70-90 years) with first diagnosis of dementia (all-cause) during the index period (01/2010-12/2014) (Disease Analyzer, Germany), and controls without dementia matched (1:1) to cases on the basis of age, sex, type of health insurance, and physician. Practice visit records were used to verify that there had been 10 years of continuous follow-up prior to the index date. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted with dementia as a dependent variable and the potential predictors.
Results: The mean age for the 11,956 cases and the 11,956 controls was 80.4 (SD: 5.3) years. 39.0% of them were male and 1.9% had private health insurance. In the multivariate regression model, the following variables were linked to a significant extent with an increased risk of dementia: diabetes (OR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10-1.24), lipid metabolism (1.07; 1.00-1.14), stroke incl. TIA (1.68; 1.57-1.80), Parkinson's disease (PD) (1.89; 1.64-2.19), intracranial injury (1.30; 1.00-1.70), coronary heart disease (1.06; 1.00-1.13), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (2.12; 1.82-2.48), mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use (1.96; 1.50-2.57). The use of statins (OR: 0.94; 0.90-0.99), proton-pump inhibitors (PPI) (0.93; 0.90-0.97), and antihypertensive drugs (0.96, 0.94-0.99) were associated with a decreased risk of developing dementia.
Conclusions: Risk factors for dementia found in this study are consistent with the literature. Nevertheless, the associations between statin, PPI and antihypertensive drug use, and decreased risk of dementia need further investigations.
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate
and sea-level change
(2016)
Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies - not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.
The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign.