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In many near-surface geophysical studies it is now common practice to collect co-located disparate geophysical data sets to explore subsurface structures. Reconstruction of physical parameter distributions underlying the available geophysical data sets usually requires the use of tomographic reconstruction techniques. To improve the quality of the obtained models, the information content of all data sets should be considered during the model generation process, e.g., by employing joint or cooperative inversion approaches. Here, we extend the zonal cooperative inversion methodology based on fuzzy c-means cluster analysis and conventional single-input data set inversion algorithms for the cooperative inversion of data sets with partially co-located model areas. This is done by considering recent developments in fuzzy c-means cluster analysis. Additionally, we show how supplementary a priori information can be incorporated in an automated fashion into the zonal cooperative inversion approach to further constrain the inversion. The only requirement is that this a priori information can be expressed numerically; e.g., by physical parameters or indicator variables. We demonstrate the applicability of the modified zonal cooperative inversion approach using synthetic and field data examples. In these examples, we cooperatively invert S- and P-wave traveltime data sets with partially co-located model areas using water saturation information expressed by indicator variables as additional a priori information. The approach results in a zoned multi-parameter model, which is consistent with all available information given to the zonal cooperative inversion and outlines the major subsurface units. In our field example, we further compare the obtained zonal model to sparsely available borehole and direct-push logs. This comparison provides further confidence in our zonal cooperative inversion model because the borehole and direct-push logs indicate a similar zonation.
Magmatic and metamorphic zircons have been dated from ductilely deformed gabbroic dykes defining a dyke swarm and signifying crustal extension in the northern part of the Hengshan Complex of the North China Craton, These dykes now occur as boudins and deformed sheets within migmatitic tonalitic, trondhjemitic, granodioritic and granitic gneisses and are conspicuous due to relics of high-pressure granulite or even former eclogite facies garnet + pyroxene-bearing assemblages. SHRIMP ages for magmatic zircons from two dykes reflect the time of dyke emplacement at similar to 1915 Ma, whereas metamorphic zircons dated by both SHRIMP and evaporation techniques are consistently in the range 1848-1888 Ma. The Youngest granitoid gneiss yet dated in the Hengshan has an emplacement age of 18 2 17 Ma. These results complement recent geochronological studies from the neighbouring Wutai and Fuping Complexes, to the SE of the Hengshan, showing that a crustal extension event Occurred in the late Palaeoproterozoic. This preceded a major high-pressure collision- type metamorphic event in the central part of the North China Craton that occurred in the Palaeoproterozoic and not in the late Archaean as previously thought. Our data support recent suggestions that the North China Craton experienced a major, craton-wide orogenic event in the late Palaeoproterozoic after which it became cratonized and acted as a stable block.
Precambrian microcontinents represent key tectonic units in the accretionary collages of the western Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), and their geological history is reasonably well established since the Mesoproterozoic but remains weakly constrained for older epochs due to a scarcity of exposed Palaeoproterozoic and Archaean rocks. Early Precambrian rocks were previously reported from several metamorphic complexes in the Kyrgyz Tianshan orogenic belt, mainly based on multigrain conventional zircon dating, but the present study only confirmed such rocks at one site, namely in the Kuilyu Complex of eastern Kyrgyzstan. New single grain SHRIMP II zircon ages, geochemical data, and whole-rock Nd isotopic compositions for granitoid gneisses of the Kuilyu Complex elucidate the age, origin and tectonic settings of this oldest continental fragment in the Tianshan. The Kuilyu Complex is part of the basement in the Ishim - Middle Tianshan microcontinent. It consist of a strongly deformed and metamorphosed supracrustal assemblage of paragneisses and schists which are tectonically interlayered with amphibolites, migmatites and granitoid gneisses. Our zircon dating indicates that the Kuilyu Complex contains two suites of Palaeoproterozoic granitoid gneisses with magmatic protolith ages of ca. 2.32-2.33 Ga and 1.85 Ga. Granitoid magmatism at 1.85 Ga was almost immediately followed by amphibolite-facies metamorphism at ca 1.83 Ga, evidenced by growth of metamorphic zircon rims. The older, ca 2.3 Ga granitoid gneisses chemically correspond to calc-alkaline, metaluminous, I-type magnesian quartz diorite and granodiorite. The protolith of the younger, ca. 1.85 Ga granite-gneiss is an alkalic-calcic, metaluminous to peraluminous, ferroan medium-grained porphyric granite with chemical features resembling A-type granites. The 2.3 Ga and 1.85 Ga granitoid gneisses have slightly to distinctly negative initial epsilon(Nd) values of -1.2 and -6.6, and similar depleted mantle Nd model ages of 2.7-2.6 Ga, which imply melting of Neoarchaean continental crust. The zircon age patterns of the Kuilyu Complex resemble those of exposed rocks in the Tarim Craton, where episodes of granitoid magmatism at ca. 2.3-2.4 and 1.85 Ga, followed by amphibolite-facies metamorphism at ca 1.85 Ga, are also recorded. Similarities in the early Precambrian magmatic and metamorphic episodes as well as similar histories during the Neoproterozoic and early Palaeozoic suggest that the Ishim-Middle Tianshan microcontinent was rifted off the Tarim Craton. Similar age patterns also suggest possible tectonic links of the Kuilyu and Tarim continental blocks with the Baidrag Block of central Mongolia. In contrast, substantial differences in age and Precambrian evolution between the Anrakhai block of southern Kazakhstan and the Kuilyu Complex argue against a previous connection and suggest the former to represent an independent continental terrane. Current data show that early Precambrian rocks in the western CAOB outside Tarim only occur at two sites, namely in the Anrakhai Complex of southern Kazakhstan and in the Kuilyu Complex of eastern Kyrgyzstan. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The effects of varying LiPF6 salt concentration and the presence of lithium bis(oxalate)borate additive on the electronic structure of commonly used lithium-ion battery electrolyte solvents (ethylene carbonate-dimethyl carbonate and propylene carbonate) have been investigated. X-ray Raman scattering spectroscopy (a non-resonant inelastic X-ray scattering method) was utilized together with a closed-circle flow cell. Carbon and oxygen K-edges provide characteristic information on the electronic structure of the electrolyte solutions, which are sensitive to local chemistry. Higher Li+ ion concentration in the solvent manifests itself as a blue-shift of both the pi* feature in the carbon edge and the carbonyl pi* feature in the oxygen edge. While these oxygen K-edge results agree with previous soft X-ray absorption studies on LiBF4 salt concentration in propylene carbonate, carbon K-edge spectra reveal a shift in energy, which can be explained with differing ionic conductivities of the electrolyte solutions.
An overview is given on the current state of X-ray absorption measurements on silicate melts and glasses. The challenges, limitations, and achievements of analyzing X-ray absorption spectra measured in liquids to determine structural properties of major and minor elements in magmas are described, with particular focus on describing non-Gaussian pair distribution functions in highly disordered glasses and melts, measured at in situ conditions. This includes a discussion on the progress of combining experiments with data from molecular dynamics simulations. For the measurements at conditions of the deep Earth, various experimental approaches and necessities are discussed and two examples are described in more detail. Finally, the achievements and prospects are presented for measuring X-ray absorption spectra indirectly by X-ray Raman scattering.
Woodlands and steppes
(2018)
Based on fossil organism remains including plant macrofossils, charcoal, pollen, and invertebrates preserved in syngenetic deposits of the Batagay permafrost sequence in the Siberian Yana Highlands, we reconstructed the environmental history during marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 to 2. Two fossil assemblages, exceptionally rich in plant remains, allowed for a detailed description of the palaeo-vegetation during two climate extremes of the Late Pleistocene, the onset of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial. In addition, altogether 41 assemblages were used to outline the vegetation history since the penultimate cold stage of MIS 6. Accordingly, meadow steppes analogue to modern communities of the phytosociological order Festucetalia lenensis formed the primary vegetation during the Saalian and Weichselian cold stages. Cold-resistant tundra-steppe communities (Carici rupestris-Kobresietea bellardii) as they occur above the treeline today were, in contrast to more northern locations, mostly lacking. During the last interglacial, open coniferous woodland similar to modern larch taiga was the primary vegetation at the site. Abundant charcoal indicates wildfire events during the last interglacial. Zoogenic disturbances of the local vegetation were indicated by the presence of ruderal plants, especially by abundant Urtica dioica, suggesting that the area was an interglacial refugium for large herbivores. Meadow steppes, which formed the primary vegetation during cold stages and provided potentially suitable pastures for herbivores, were a significant constituent of the plant cover in the Yana Highlands also under the full warm stage conditions of the last interglacial. Consequently, meadow steppes occurred in the Yana Highlands during the entire investigated timespan from MIS 6 to MIS 2 documenting a remarkable environmental stability. Thus, the proportion of meadow steppe vegetation merely shifted in response to the respectively prevailing climatic conditions. Their persistence indicates low precipitation and a relatively warm growing season throughout and beyond the late Pleistocene. The studied fossil record also proves that modern steppe occurrences in the Yana Highlands did not establish as late as in the Holocene but instead are relicts of a formerly continuous steppe belt extending from Central Siberia to Northeast Yakutia during the Pleistocene. The persistence of plants and invertebrates characteristic of meadow steppe vegetation in interior Yakutia throughout the late Quaternary indicates climatic continuity and documents the suitability of this region as a refugium also for other organisms of the Pleistocene mammoth steppe including the iconic large herbivores. (C)2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Projected scenarios of climate change involve general predictions about the likely changes to the magnitude and frequency of landslides, particularly as a consequence of altered precipitation and temperature regimes. Whether such landslide response to contemporary or past climate change may be captured in differing scaling statistics of landslide size distributions and the erosion rates derived thereof remains debated. We test this notion with simple Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations of statistical models commonly used to characterize empirical landslide size distributions. Our results show that significant changes to total volumes contained in such inventories may be masked by statistically indistinguishable scaling parameters, critically depending on, among others, the size of the largest of landslides recorded. Conversely, comparable model parameter values may obscure significant, i.e. more than twofold, changes to landslide occurrence, and thus inferred rates of hillslope denudation and sediment delivery to drainage networks. A time series of some of Earth's largest mass movements reveals clustering near and partly before the last glacial-interglacial transition and a distinct step-over from white noise to temporal clustering around this period. However, elucidating whether this is a distinct signal of first-order climate-change impact on slope stability or simply coincides with a transition from short-term statistical noise to long-term steady-state conditions remains an important research challenge.
The within-site variability in site response is the randomness in site response at a given site from different earthquakes and is treated as aleatory variability in current seismic hazard/risk analyses.
In this study, we investigate the single-station variability in linear site response at K-NET and KiK-net stations in Japan using a large number of earthquake recordings.
We found that the standard deviation of the horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio at individual sites, that is single-station horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) sigma sigma(HV,s), approximates the within-site variability in site response quantified using surface-to-borehole spectral ratios (for oscillator frequencies higher than the site fundamental frequency) or empirical ground-motion models.
Based on this finding, we then utilize the single-station HVSR sigma as a convenient tool to study the site-response variability at 697 KiK-net and 1169 K-NET sites.
Our results show that at certain frequencies, stiff, rough and shallow sites, as well as small and local events tend to have a higher sigma(HV,s).
However, when being averaged over different sites, the single-station HVSR sigma, that is sigma(HV), increases gradually with decreasing frequency. In the frequency range of 0.25-25 Hz, sigma(HV) is centred at 0.23-0.43 in ln scales (a linear scale factor of 1.26-1.54) with one standard deviation of less than 0.1. sigma(HV) is quite stable across different tectonic regions, and we present a constant, as well as earthquake magnitude- and distance-dependent sigma(HV) models.
Humidity is an important determinant of the mycotoxin production (DON, ZEA) by Fusarium species in the grain ears. From a landscape perspective humidity is not evenly distributed across fields. The topographically-controlled redistribution of water within a single field rather leads to spatially heterogeneous soil water content and air humidity. Therefore we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of mycotoxins is related to these topographically-controlled factors. To test this hypothesis we studied the mycotoxin concentrations at contrasting topographic relief positions, i.e. hilltops and depressions characterized by soils of different soil moisture regimes, on ten winter wheat fields in 2006 and 2007. Maize was the preceding crop and minimum tillage was practiced in the fields. The different topographic positions were associated with moderate differences in DON and ZEA concentrations in 2006, but with significant differences in 2007, with six times higher median ZEA and two times higher median DON detected at depression sites compared to the hilltops. The depression sites correspond to a higher topographic wetness index as well as redoximorphic properties in soil profiles, which empirically supports our hypothesis at least for years showing wetter conditions in sensitive time windows for Fusarium infections.
Ground motion with strong-velocity pulses can cause significant damage to buildings and structures at certain periods; hence, knowing the period and velocity amplitude of such pulses is critical for earthquake structural engineering.
However, the physical factors relating the scaling of pulse periods with magnitude are poorly understood.
In this study, we investigate moderate but damaging earthquakes (M-w 6-7) and characterize ground- motion pulses using the method of Shahi and Baker (2014) while considering the potential static-offset effects.
We confirm that the within-event variability of the pulses is large. The identified pulses in this study are mostly from strike-slip-like earthquakes. We further perform simulations using the freq uency-wavenumber algorithm to investigate the causes of the variability of the pulse periods within and between events for moderate strike-slip earthquakes.
We test the effect of fault dips, and the impact of the asperity locations and sizes. The simulations reveal that the asperity properties have a high impact on the pulse periods and amplitudes at nearby stations.
Our results emphasize the importance of asperity characteristics, in addition to earthquake magnitudes for the occurrence and properties of pulses produced by the forward directivity effect.
We finally quantify and discuss within- and between-event variabilities of pulse properties at short distances.
Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
(2017)
The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (PC, 8180 and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/ Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) wind model (CFD-WEM) for wind erosion research in the Xilingele grassland in Inner Mongolia (autonomous region, China) is compared with two open source CFD models Gerris and OpenFOAM. The evaluation of these models was made according to software technology, implemented methods, handling, accuracy and calculation speed. All models were applied to the same wind tunnel data set. Results show that the simplest CFD-WEM has the highest calculation speed with acceptable accuracy, and the most powerful OpenFOAM produces the simulation with highest accuracy and the lowest calculation speed. Gerris is between CFD-WEM and OpenFOAM. It calculates faster than OpenFOAM, and it is capable to solve different CFD problems. CFD-WEM is the optimal model to be further developed for wind erosion research in Inner Mongolia grassland considering its efficiency and the uncertainties of other input data. However, for other applications using CFD technology, Gerris and OpenFOAM can be good choices. This paper shows the powerful capability of open source CFD software in wind erosion study, and advocates more involvement of open source technology in wind erosion and related ecological researches.
Deserts are a major source of loess and may undergo substantial wind-erosion as evidenced by yardang fields, deflation pans, and wind-scoured bedrock landscapes. However, there are few quantitative estimates of bedrock removal by wind abrasion and deflation. Here, we report wind-erosion rates in the western Qaidam Basin in central China based on measurements of cosmogenic Be-10 in exhumed Miocene sedimentary bedrock. Sedimentary bedrock erosion rates range from 0.05 to 0.4 mm/yr, although the majority of measurements cluster at 0.125 +/- 0.05 mm/yr. These results, combined with previous work, indicate that strong winds, hyper-aridity, exposure of friable Neogene strata, and ongoing rock deformation and uplift in the western Qaidam Basin have created an environment where wind, instead of water, is the dominant agent of erosion and sediment transport. Its geographic location (upwind) combined with volumetric estimates suggest that the Qaidam Basin is a major source (up to 50%) of dust to the Chinese Loess Plateau to the east. The cosmogenically derived wind erosion rates are within the range of erosion rates determined from glacial and fluvial dominated landscapes worldwide, exemplifying the effectiveness of wind to erode and transport significant quantities of bedrock.
Over short and long timescales, wildfires can be an important cause of hydrological and geomorphological change. Mediterranean rivers are part of a fire-prone and high-energy environment in which the timing of major storms in relation to fire influences the impact on fluvial systems; accordingly, the identification of major sources, stores and fluxes of sediments is essential for providing more effective post-fire management strategies. In this study, caesium-137 and excess lead-210 were used as tracers to quantify the proportional contributions of fine sediment from hillslope surface and channel bank sources to suspended sediment and channel bed deposits before the impact of a forest wildfire in Na Borges, a Mediterranean groundwater-dominated river. It also compared burnt and unburnt spatial sources of sediment within a single catchment and the extent to which burnt material was transported downstream. The study focused on two small and steep sub-catchments, where just one of the catchments was partially affected by a wildfire. The pre-fire dynamics indicated that surface soils were the main sediment source in these ephemeral creeks. Post-fire sediment dynamics were characterised by a single flood event with a short recurrence interval (i.e. return period ca. <1 year). Sediment generated from the burnt area contributed 12% on average to bed-stored sediments within the burnt catchment, which reduced downstream to 5% along the main channel of the Na Borges River. The findings demonstrate the potential for using fallout radionuclide tracers to understand the wider impacts of wildfires on fluvial environments located outside of the burn area. Copyright (C) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Width control on event-scale deposition and evacuation of sediment in bedrock-confined channels
(2020)
In mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers, the response of the system to a flood event can be affected by a number of factors, including coarse sediment availability in the channel, sediment supply from the hillslopes and upstream, flood sequencing and coarse sediment grain size distribution. However, the impact of along-stream changes in channel width on bedload transport dynamics remains largely unexplored. We combine field data, theory and numerical modelling to address this gap. First, we present observations from the Daan River gorge in western Taiwan, where the river flows through a 1 km long 20-50 m wide bedrock gorge bounded upstream and downstream by wide braidplains. We documented two flood events during which coarse sediment evacuation and redeposition appear to cause changes of up to several metres in channel bed elevation. Motivated by this case study, we examined the relationships between discharge, channel width and bedload transport capacity, and show that for a given slope narrow channels transport bedload more efficiently than wide ones at low discharges, whereas wider channels are more efficient at high discharges. We used the model sedFlow to explore this effect, running a random sequence of floods through a channel with a narrow gorge section bounded upstream and downstream by wider reaches. Channel response to imposed floods is complex, as high and low discharges drive different spatial patterns of erosion and deposition, and the channel may experience both of these regimes during the peak and recession periods of each flood. Our modelling suggests that width differences alone can drive substantial variations in sediment flux and bed response, without the need for variations in sediment supply or mobility. The fluctuations in sediment transport rates that result from width variations can lead to intermittent bed exposure, driving incision in different segments of the channel during different portions of the hydrograph.
Glacial-interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (> 40 degrees N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.
The 2002 M-w 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of similar to 1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M 8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (M-w 6.9, 2010), and Aysen Fjord, Chile (2007 M-w 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Soil in a changing world is subject to both anthropogenic and environmental stresses. Soil monitoring is essential to assess the magnitude of changes in soil variables and how they affect ecosystem processes and human livelihoods. However, we cannot always be sure which sampling design is best for a given monitoring task. We employed a rotational stratified simple random sampling (rotStRS) for the estimation of temporal changes in the spatial mean of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at three sites in central Panama in 2009, 2010 and 2011. To assess this design's efficiency we compared the resulting estimates of the spatial mean and variance for 2009 with those gained from stratified simple random sampling (StRS), which was effectively the data obtained on the first sampling time, and with an equivalent unexecuted simple random sampling (SRS). The poor performance of geometrical stratification and the weak predictive relationship between measurements of successive years yielded no advantage of sampling designs more complex than SRS. The failure of stratification may be attributed to the small large-scale variability of K-s. Revisiting previously sampled locations was not beneficial because of the large small-scale variability in combination with destructive sampling, resulting in poor consistency between revisited samples. We conclude that for our K-s monitoring scheme, repeated SRS is equally effective as rotStRS. Some problems of small-scale variability might be overcome by collecting several samples at close range to reduce the effect of small-scale variation. Finally, we give recommendations on the key factors to consider when deciding whether to use stratification and rotation in a soil monitoring scheme.
This study aims to identify the best-performing site characterization proxy alternative and complementary to the conventional 30 m average shear-wave velocity V-S30, as well as the optimal combination of proxies in characterizing linear site response. Investigated proxies include T-0 (site fundamental period obtained from earthquake horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios), V-Sz (measured average shear-wave velocities to depth z, z = 5, 10, 20 and 30 m), Z(0.8) and Z(1.0) (measured site depths to layers having shear-wave velocity 0.8 and 1.0 km/s, respectively), as well as Z(x-infer) (inferred site depths from a regional velocity model, x = 0.8 and 1.0, 1.5 and 2.5 km/s). To evaluate the performance of a site proxy or a combination, a total of 1840 surface-borehole recordings is selected from KiK-net database. Site amplifications are derived using surface-to-borehole response-, Fourier- and cross-spectral ratio techniques and then are compared across approaches. Next, the efficacies of 7 single-proxies and 11 proxy-pairs are quantified based on the site-to-site standard deviation of amplification residuals of observation about prediction using the proxy or the pair. Our results show that T-0 is the best-performing single-proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and V-Sz. Meanwhile, T-0 is also the best-performing proxy among T-0, Z(0.8), Z(1.0) and Z(x-infer) complementary to V-S30 in accounting for the residual amplification after V-S30-correction. Besides, T-0 alone can capture most of the site effects and should be utilized as the primary site indicator. Though (T-0, V-S30) is the best-performing proxy pair among (V-S30, T-0), (V-S30, Z(0.8)), (V-S30, Z(1.0)), (V-S30, Z(x-infer)) and (T-0, V-Sz), it is only slightly better than (T-0, V-S20). Considering both efficacy and engineering utility, the combination of T-0 (primary) and V-S20 (secondary) is recommended. Further study is needed to test the performances of various proxies on sites in deep sedimentary basins.
Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac in a pattern-oriented way. In order to develop and parameterise the model, we measured a wide range of biotic and abiotic parameters in two study sites in the Elbe estuary and compared observed and simulated patterns. The final model is able to reproduce the general patterns of vegetation zonation, development and growth and thus helps to understand the underlying processes. By considering the vegetative reproduction of marsh plants as well as abiotic influence factors and intraspecific competition, HaMac allowed to systematically analyse the significance of factors and processes for the dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. Our results show that rhizome growth is the most important process and that flow velocity, inundation height and duration as well as intraspecific competition are the most important habitat factors for explaining spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes. Future applications of HaMac could support the sustainable development and stabilisation of shore zones and thus contribute to the promotion and planning of ecosystem -based shoreline protection measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Scenario-neutral response surfaces illustrate the sensitivity of a simulated natural system, represented by a specific impact variable, to systematic perturbations of climatic parameters. This type of approach has recently been developed as an alternative to top-down approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts. A major limitation of this approach is the underrepresentation of changes in the temporal structure of the climate input data (i.e., the seasonal and day-to-day variability) since this is not altered by the perturbation. This paper presents a framework that aims to examine this limitation by perturbing both observed and projected climate data time series for a future period, which both serve as input into a hydrological model (the HBV model). The resulting multiple response surfaces are compared at a common domain, the standardized runoff response surface (SRRS). We apply this approach in a case study catchment in Norway to (i) analyze possible changes in mean and extreme runoff and (ii) quantify the influence of changes in the temporal structure represented by 17 different climate input sets using linear mixed-effect models. Results suggest that climate change induced increases in mean and peak flow runoff and only small changes in low flow. They further suggest that the effect of the different temporal structures of the climate input data considerably affects low flows and floods (at least 21% influence), while it is negligible for mean runoff.
The Paleogene latitude of the Lhasa terrane (southern Tibet) can constrain the age of the onset of the India-Asia collision. Estimates for this latitude, however, vary from 5 degrees N to 30 degrees N, and thus, here, we reassess the geochronology and paleomagnetism of Paleogene volcanic rocks from the Linzizong Group in the Linzhou basin. The lower and upper parts of the section previously yielded particularly conflicting ages and paleolatitudes. We report consistent Ar-40/Ar-39 and U-Pb zircon dates of similar to 52Ma for the upper Linzizong, and Ar-40/Ar-39 dates (similar to 51Ma) from the lower Linzizong are significantly younger than U-Pb zircon dates (64-63Ma), suggesting that the lower Linzizong was thermally and/or chemically reset. Paleomagnetic results from 24 sites in lower Linzizong confirm a low apparent paleolatitude of similar to 5 degrees N, compared to the upper part (similar to 20 degrees N) and to underlying Cretaceous strata (similar to 20 degrees N). Detailed rock magnetic analyses, end-member modeling of magnetic components, and petrography from the lower and upper Linzizong indicate widespread secondary hematite in the lower Linzizong, whereas hematite is rare in upper Linzizong. Volcanic rocks of the lower Linzizong have been hydrothermally chemically remagnetized, whereas the upper Linzizong retains a primary remanence. We suggest that remagnetization was induced by acquisition of chemical and thermoviscous remanent magnetizations such that the shallow inclinations are an artifact of a tilt correction applied to a secondary remanence in lower Linzizong. We estimate that the Paleogene latitude of Lhasa terrane was 204 degrees N, consistent with previous results suggesting that India-Asia collision likely took place by similar to 52Ma at similar to 20 degrees N.
This study examines the course and driving forces of recent vegetation change in the Mongolian steppe. A sediment core covering the last 55years from a small closed-basin lake in central Mongolia was analyzed for its multi-proxy record at annual resolution. Pollen analysis shows that highest abundances of planted Poaceae and highest vegetation diversity occurred during 1977-1992, reflecting agricultural development in the lake area. A decrease in diversity and an increase in Artemisia abundance after 1992 indicate enhanced vegetation degradation in recent times, most probably because of overgrazing and farmland abandonment. Human impact is the main factor for the vegetation degradation within the past decades as revealed by a series of redundancy analyses, while climate change and soil erosion play subordinate roles. High Pediastrum (a green algae) influx, high atomic total organic carbon/total nitrogen (TOC/TN) ratios, abundant coarse detrital grains, and the decrease of C-13(org) and N-15 since about 1977 but particularly after 1992 indicate that abundant terrestrial organic matter and nutrients were transported into the lake and caused lake eutrophication, presumably because of intensified land use. Thus, we infer that the transition to a market economy in Mongolia since the early 1990s not only caused dramatic vegetation degradation but also affected the lake ecosystem through anthropogenic changes in the catchment area.
Modelers can improve a model by addressing the causes for the model errors (data errors and structural errors). This leads to implementing model enhancements (MEs), for example, meteorological data based on more monitoring stations, improved calibration data, and/or modifications in process formulations. However, deciding on which MEs to implement remains a matter of expert knowledge. After implementing multiple MEs, any improvement in model performance is not easily attributed, especially when considering different objectives or aspects of this improvement (e.g., better dynamics vs. reduced bias). We present an approach for comparing the effect of multiple MEs based on real observations and considering multiple objectives (MMEMO). A stepwise selection approach and structured plots help to address the multidimensionality of the problem. Tailored analyses allow a differentiated view on the effect of MEs and their interactions. MMEMO is applied to a case study employing the mesoscale hydro-sedimentological model WASA-SED for the Mediterranean-mountainous Isabena catchment, northeast Spain. The investigated seven MEs show diverse effects: some MEs (e.g., rainfall data) cause improvements for most objectives, while other MEs (e.g., land use data) only affect a few objectives or even decrease model performance. Interaction of MEs was observed for roughly half of the MEs, confirming the need to address them in the analysis. Calibration and increasing the temporal resolution showed by far stronger impact than any of the other MEs. The proposed framework can be adopted in other studies to analyze the effect of MEs and, thus, facilitate the identification and implementation of the most promising MEs for comparable cases.
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement. The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Giant earthquakes with magnitudes above 8.5 occur only in subduction zones. Despite the developments made in observing large subduction zone earthquakes with geophysical instruments, the factors controlling the maximum size of these earthquakes are still poorly understood. Previous studies have suggested the importance of slab shape, roughness of the plate interface contact, state of the strain in the upper plate, thickness of sediments filling the trenches, and subduction rate. Here, we present 2-D cross-scale numerical models of seismic cycles for subduction zones with various geometries, subduction channel friction configurations, and subduction rates. We found that low-angle subduction and thick sediments in the subduction channel are the necessary conditions for generating giant earthquakes, while the subduction rate has a negligible effect. We suggest that these key parameters determine the maximum magnitude of a subduction earthquake by controlling the seismogenic zone width and smoothness of the subduction interface. This interpretation supports previous studies that are based upon observations and scaling laws. Our modeling results also suggest that low static friction in the sediment-filled subduction channel results in neutral or moderate compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low-angle subduction zones hosting giant earthquakes. These modeling results agree well with observations for the largest earthquakes. Based on our models we predict maximum magnitudes of subduction earthquakes worldwide, demonstrating the fit to magnitudes of all giant earthquakes of the 20th and 21st centuries and good agreement with the predictions based on statistical analyses of observations.