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Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
(2017)
The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
Functional biodiversity research explores drivers and functional consequences of biodiversity changes Land use change is a major driver of changes of biodiversity and of biogeochemical and biological ecosystem processes and services However, land use effects on genetic and species diversity are well documented only for a few taxa and trophic networks We hardly know how different components of biodiversity and their responses to land use change are interrelated and very little about the simultaneous, and interacting, effects of land use on multiple ecosystem processes and services Moreover, we do not know to what extent land use effects on ecosystem processes and services are mediated by biodiversity change Thus, overall goals are on the one hand to understand the effects of land use on biodiversity and on the other to understand the modifying role of biodiversity change for land-use effects on ecosystem processes, including biogeochemical cycles To comprehensively address these Important questions, we recently established a new large-scale and long-term project for functional biodiversity, the Biodiversity Exploratories (www biodiversity-exploratories de) They comprise a hierarchical set of standardized field plots in three different regions of Germany covering manifold management types and intensities in grasslands and forests They serve as a joint research platform for currently 40 projects involving over 300 people studying various aspects of the relationships between land use biodiversity and ecosystem processes through monitoring, comparative observation and experiments We introduce guiding questions, concept and design of the Biodiversity Exploratories - including main aspects of selection and implementation of field plots and project structure - and we discuss the significance of this approach for further functional biodiversity research This includes the crucial relevance of a common study design encompassing variation in both drivers and outcomes of biodiversity change and ecosystem processes, the interdisciplinary integration of biodiversity and ecosystem researchers, the training of a new generation of integrative biodiversity researchers, and the stimulation of functional biodiversity research in real landscape contexts, in Germany and elsewhere.
Although temporal heterogeneity is a well-accepted driver of biodiversity, effects of interannual variation in land-use intensity (LUI) have not been addressed yet. Additionally, responses to land use can differ greatly among different organisms; therefore, overall effects of land-use on total local biodiversity are hardly known. To test for effects of LUI (quantified as the combined intensity of fertilization, grazing, and mowing) and interannual variation in LUI (SD in LUI across time), we introduce a unique measure of whole-ecosystem biodiversity, multidiversity. This synthesizes individual diversity measures across up to 49 taxonomic groups of plants, animals, fungi, and bacteria from 150 grasslands. Multidiversity declined with increasing LUI among grasslands, particularly for rarer species and aboveground organisms, whereas common species and belowground groups were less sensitive. However, a high level of interannual variation in LUI increased overall multidiversity at low LUI and was even more beneficial for rarer species because it slowed the rate at which the multidiversity of rare species declined with increasing LUI. In more intensively managed grasslands, the diversity of rarer species was, on average, 18% of the maximum diversity across all grasslands when LUI was static over time but increased to 31% of the maximum when LUI changed maximally over time. In addition to decreasing overall LUI, we suggest varying LUI across years as a complementary strategy to promote biodiversity conservation.
In soil, Acidobacteria constitute on average 20% of all bacteria, are highly diverse, and are physiologically active in situ. However, their individual functions and interactions with higher taxa in soil are still unknown. Here, potential effects of land use, soil properties, plant diversity, and soil nanofauna on acidobacterial community composition were studied by cultivation-independent methods in grassland and forest soils from three different regions in Germany. The analysis of 16S rRNA gene clone libraries representing all studied soils revealed that grassland soils were dominated by subgroup Gp6 and forest soils by subgroup Gp1 Acidobacteria. The analysis of a large number of sites (n = 57) by 16S rRNA gene fingerprinting methods (terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism [T-RFLP] and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis [DGGE]) showed that Acidobacteria diversities differed between grassland and forest soils but also among the three different regions. Edaphic properties, such as pH, organic carbon, total nitrogen, C/N ratio, phosphorus, nitrate, ammonium, soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil respiration, had an impact on community composition as assessed by fingerprinting. However, interrelations with environmental parameters among subgroup terminal restriction fragments (T-RFs) differed significantly, e.g., different Gp1 T-RFs correlated positively or negatively with nitrogen content. Novel significant correlations of Acidobacteria subpopulations (i.e., individual populations within subgroups) with soil nanofauna and vascular plant diversity were revealed only by analysis of clone sequences. Thus, for detecting novel interrelations of environmental parameters with Acidobacteria, individual populations within subgroups have to be considered.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.
Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.