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The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing imagery and volunteered graphic information (VGI). This paper presents the development of a building-by-building exposure model based exclusively on openly available datasets, including both VGI and census statistics, which are defined at different levels of spatial resolution and for different moments in time. The initial model stemming purely from building-level data is enriched with statistics aggregated at the neighbourhood and city level by means of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the generation of full realisations of damage estimates when using the exposure model in the context of an earthquake scenario calculation. Though applicable to any other region of interest where analogous datasets are available, the workflow and approach followed are explained by focusing on the case of the German city of Cologne, for which a scenario earthquake is defined and the potential damage is calculated. The resulting exposure model and damage estimates are presented, and it is shown that the latter are broadly consistent with damage data from the 1978 Albstadt earthquake, notwithstanding the differences in the scenario. Through this real-world application we demonstrate the potential of VGI and open data to be used for exposure modelling for natural risk assessment, when combined with suitable knowledge on building fragility and accounting for the inherent uncertainties.
Understanding catchment controls on catchment solute export is a prerequisite for water quality management. StorAge Selection (SAS) functions encapsulate essential information about catchment functioning in terms of discharge selection preference and solute export dynamics. However, they lack information on the spatial origin of solutes when applied at the catchment scale, thereby limiting our understanding of the internal (subcatchment) functioning. Here, we parameterized SAS functions in a spatially explicit way to understand the internal catchment responses and transport dynamics of reactive dissolved nitrate (N-NO3). The model was applied in a nested mesoscale catchment (457 km(2)), consisting of a mountainous partly forested, partly agricultural subcatchment, a middle-reach forested subcatchment, and a lowland agricultural subcatchment. The model captured flow and nitrate concentration dynamics not only at the catchment outlet but also at internal gauging stations. Results reveal disparate subsurface mixing dynamics and nitrate export among headwater and lowland subcatchments. The headwater subcatchment has high seasonal variation in subsurface mixing schemes and younger water in discharge, while the lowland subcatchment has less pronounced seasonality in subsurface mixing and much older water in discharge. Consequently, nitrate concentration in discharge from the headwater subcatchment shows strong seasonality, whereas that from the lowland subcatchment is stable in time. The temporally varying responses of headwater and lowland subcatchments alternate the dominant contribution to nitrate export in high and low-flow periods between subcatchments. Overall, our results demonstrate that the spatially explicit SAS modeling provides useful information about internal catchment functioning, helping to develop or evaluate spatial management practices.
Continental rifting is responsible for the generation of major sedimentary basins, both during rift inception and during the formation of rifted continental margins. Geophysical and field studies revealed that rifts feature complex networks of normal faults but the factors controlling fault network properties and their evolution are still matter of debate. Here, we employ high-resolution 2D geodynamic models (ASPECT) including two-way coupling to a surface processes (SP) code (FastScape) to conduct 12 models of major rift types that are exposed to various degrees of erosion and sedimentation. We further present a novel quantitative fault analysis toolbox (Fatbox), which allows us to isolate fault growth patterns, the number of faults, and their length and displacement throughout rift history. Our analysis reveals that rift fault networks may evolve through five major phases: (a) distributed deformation and coalescence, (b) fault system growth, (c) fault system decline and basinward localization, (d) rift migration, and (e) breakup. These phases can be correlated to distinct rifted margin domains. Models of asymmetric rifting suggest rift migration is facilitated through both ductile and brittle deformation within a weak exhumation channel that rotates subhorizontally and remains active at low angles. In sedimentation-starved settings, this channel satisfies the conditions for serpentinization. We find that SP are not only able to enhance strain localization and to increase fault longevity but that they also reduce the total length of the fault system, prolong rift phases and delay continental breakup.
Sulfate reduction is the quantitatively most important process to degrade organic matter in anoxic marine sediment and has been studied intensively in a variety of settings. Guaymas Basin, a young marginal ocean basin, offers the unique opportunity to study sulfate reduction in an environment characterized by organic-rich sediment, high sedimentation rates, and high geothermal gradients (100-958 degrees C km(-1)). We measured sulfate reduction rates (SRR) in samples taken during the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 385 using incubation experiments with radiolabeled (SO42-)-S-35 carried out at in situ pressure and temperature. The highest SRR (387 nmol cm(-3) d(-1)) was recorded in near-surface sediments from Site U1548C, which had the steepest geothermal gradient (958 degrees C km(-1)). At this site, SRR were generally over an order of magnitude higher than at similar depths at other sites (e.g., 387-157 nmol cm(-3) d(-1) at 1.9 mbsf from Site U1548C vs. 46-1.0 nmol cm(-3) d(-1) at 2.1 mbsf from Site U1552B). Site U1546D is characterized by a sill intrusion, but it had already reached thermal equilibrium and SRR were in the same range as nearby Site U1545C, which is minimally affected by sills. The wide temperature range observed at each drill site suggests major shifts in microbial community composition with very different temperature optima but awaits confirmation by molecular biological analyses. At the transition between the mesophilic and thermophilic range around 40 degrees C-60 degrees C, sulfate-reducing activity appears to be decreased, particularly in more oligotrophic settings, but shows a slight recovery at higher temperatures.
In-depth understanding of the reorganization of the hydrological cycle in response to global climate change is crucial in highly sensitive regions like the eastern Mediterranean, where water availability is a major factor for socioeconomic and political development.
The sediments of Lake Lisan provide a unique record of hydroclimatic change during the last glacial to Holocene transition (ca. 24-11 ka) with its tremendous water level drop of similar to 240 m that finally led to its transition into the present hypersaline water body-the Dead Sea.
Here we utilize high-resolution sedimentological analyses from the marginal terraces and deep lake to reconstruct an unprecedented seasonal record of the last millennia of Lake Lisan. Aragonite varve formation in intercalated intervals of our record demonstrates that a stepwise long-term lake level decline was interrupted by almost one millennium of rising or stable water level.
Even periods of pronounced water level drops indicated by gypsum deposition were interrupted by decades of positive water budgets.
Our results thus highlight that even during major climate change at the end of the last glacial, decadal to millennial periods of relatively stable or positive moisture supply occurred which could have been an important premise for human sedentism.
Neoarchean (similar to 2.73-2.70 Ga) accretionary history of the eastern Dharwar Craton, India
(2022)
Cratonic mid-crustal plutons may contain supracrustal enclaves that preserve evidence of an earlier growth history. The Eastern Dharwar craton records Neoarchean two-stage accretionary sequential growth (2.70 and 2.55 Ga) and a chronology of their enclaves could refine orogenic models. To test whether the metamorphic history of their enclaves was related to any of these stages, phase equilibria modelling and combined Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd geochronology on garnet were conducted on metapsammite, now preserved as garnet-orthopyroxene-cordierite gneiss. Phase equilibria modelling indicates peak metamorphic conditions, similar to 850 degrees C and similar to 8.5 kbar (M1a), were followed by near isothermal decompression to 5-6 kbar (M1b) and isobaric cooling to similar to 800 degrees C (M1c). The thermobaric gradient related to peak metamorphic conditions, similar to 30 degrees C kbar(-1), is typical of collisional orogens. Regression of the whole-rock and garnet, for sample S17b, yield Lu-Hf isochron ages of 2733 +/- 29 Ma, and for sample S18, 2724 +/- 13 Ma. A Lu-Hf weighted mean age for the porphyroblastic garnet suggests growth at 2725.5 +/- 11.9 Ma during the M1a-M1b stages. In contrast, the whole-rock sample S17b and the garnet fractions yield a Sm-Nd isochron age of 2696 +/- 10 Ma. From sample S18 the whole rock, garnet fractions, and orthopyroxene yield an isochron age of 2683 +/- 15 Ma. The garnet Sm-Nd weighted mean age at 2692.0 +/- 8.3 Ma constrains the M1b-M1c stages. We suggest that the protoliths to these supracrustal enclaves were deposited in an arc tectonic setting and underwent thickening followed by heating during peeled-back lithospheric convergence. Therefore, the earliest of the craton-forming accretionary stages is preserved as the similar to 2.73 Ga granulite-facies enclaves, marginally older than the 2.70-2.65 Ga cratonic greenstone volcanism. Tectonic exhumation of these mid-crustal granulite enclaves was in response to the late-Proterozoic (similar to 1.7 Ga) Bhopalpatnam orogeny.
The stabilizing properties of mineral-organic carbon (OC) interactions have been studied in many soil environments (temperate soils, podzol lateritic soils, and paddy soils). Recently, interest in their role in permafrost regions is increasing as permafrost was identified as a hotspot of change. In thawing ice-rich permafrost regions, such as the Yedoma domain, 327-466 Gt of frozen OC is buried in deep sediments. Interactions between minerals and OC are important because OC is located very near the mineral matrix. Mineral surfaces and elements could mitigate recent and future greenhouse gas emissions through physical and/or physicochemical protection of OC. The dynamic changes in redox and pH conditions associated with thermokarst lake formation and drainage trigger metal-oxide dissolution and precipitation, likely influencing OC stabilization and microbial mineralization. However, the influence of thermokarst processes on mineral-OC interactions remains poorly constrained. In this study, we aim to characterize Fe, Mn, Al, and Ca minerals and their potential protective role for OC. Total and selective extractions were used to assess the crystalline and amorphous oxides or complexed metal pools as well as the organic acids found within these pools. We analyzed four sediment cores from an ice-rich permafrost area in Central Yakutia, which were drilled (i) in undisturbed Yedoma uplands, (ii) beneath a recent lake formed within Yedoma deposits, (iii) in a drained thermokarst lake basin, and (iv) beneath a mature thermokarst lake from the early Holocene period. We find a decrease in the amount of reactive Fe, Mn, Al, and Ca in the deposits on lake formation (promoting reduction reactions), and this was largely balanced by an increase in the amount of reactive metals in the deposits on lake drainage (promoting oxidation reactions). We demonstrate an increase in the metal to C molar ratio on thermokarst process, which may indicate an increase in metal-C bindings and could provide a higher protective role against microbial mineralization of organic matter. Finally, we find that an increase in mineral-OC interactions corresponded to a decrease in CO2 and CH4 gas emissions on thermokarst process. Mineral-OC interactions could mitigate greenhouse gas production from permafrost thaw as soon as lake drainage occurs.
Nocardioides alcanivorans sp. nov., a novel hexadecane-degrading species isolated from plastic waste
(2022)
Strain NGK65(T), a novel hexadecane degrading, non-motile, Gram-positive, rod-to-coccus shaped, aerobic bacterium, was isolated from plastic polluted soil sampled at a landfill.
Strain NGK65(T) hydrolysed casein, gelatin, urea and was catalase-positive. It optimally grew at 28 degrees C. in 0-1% NaCl and at pH 7.5-8.0. Glycerol, D-glucose, arbutin, aesculin, salicin, potassium 5-ketogluconate. sucrose, acetate, pyruvate and hexadecane were used as sole carbon sources.
The predominant membrane fatty acids were iso-C-16:0 followed by iso-C(17:)0 and C-18:1 omega 9c. The major polar lipids were phosphatidylglycerol, phosphatidylethanolamine, phosphatidylinositol and hydroxyphosphatidylinositol.
The cell-wall peptidoglycan type was A3 gamma, with LL-diaminopimelic acid and glycine as the diagnostic amino acids. MK 8 (H-4) was the predominant menaquinone. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA gene sequences indicated that strain NGK65(T) belongs to the genus Nocardioides (phylum Actinobacteria). appearing most closely related to Nocardioides daejeonensis MJ31(T) (98.6%) and Nocardioides dubius KSL-104(T) (98.3%).
The genomic DNA G+C content of strain NGK65(T) was 68.2%.
Strain NGK65(T) and the type strains of species involved in the analysis had average nucleotide identity values of 78.3-71.9% as well as digital DNA-DNA hybridization values between 22.5 and 19.7%, which clearly indicated that the isolate represents a novel species within the genus Nocardioides.
Based on phenotypic and molecular characterization, strain NGK65(T) can clearly be differentiated from its phylogenetic neighbours to establish a novel species, for which the name Nocardioides alcanivorans sp. nov. is proposed.
The type strain is NGK65(T) (=DSM 113112(T)=NCCB 100846(T)).
Statistical distributions of flood peak discharge often show heavy tail behavior, that is, extreme floods are more likely to occur than would be predicted by commonly used distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior.
This heavy tail behavior may surprise flood managers and citizens, as human intuition tends to expect light tail behavior, and the heaviness of the tails is very difficult to predict, which may lead to unnecessarily high flood damage.
Despite its high importance, the literature on the heavy tail behavior of flood distributions is rather fragmented.
In this review, we provide a coherent overview of the processes causing heavy flood tails and the implications for science and practice.
Specifically, we propose nine hypotheses on the mechanisms causing heavy tails in flood peak distributions related to processes in the atmosphere, the catchment, and the river system.
We then discuss to which extent the current knowledge supports or contradicts these hypotheses.
We also discuss the statistical conditions for the emergence of heavy tail behavior based on derived distribution theory and relate them to the hypotheses and flood generation mechanisms.
We review the degree to which the heaviness of the tails can be predicted from process knowledge and data. Finally, we recommend further research toward testing the hypotheses and improving the prediction of heavy tails.
The release of greenhouse gases from the large organic carbon stock in permafrost deposits in the circumarctic regions may accelerate global warming upon thaw. The extent of this positive climate feedback is thought to be largely controlled by the microbial degradability of the organic matter preserved in these sediments. In addition, weathering and oxidation processes may release inorganic carbon preserved in permafrost sediments as CO2, which is generally not accounted for. We used C-13 and C-14 analysis and isotopic mass balances to differentiate and quantify organic and inorganic carbon released as CO2 in the field from an active retrogressive thaw slump of Pleistocene-age Yedoma and during a 1.5-years incubation experiment. The results reveal that the dominant source of the CO2 released from freshly thawed Yedoma exposed as thaw mound is Pleistocene-age organic matter (48-80%) and to a lesser extent modern organic substrate (3-34%). A significant portion of the CO2 originated from inorganic carbon in the Yedoma (17-26%). The mixing of young, active layer material with Yedoma at a site on the slump floor led to the preferential mineralization of this young organic carbon source. Admixtures of younger organic substrates in the Yedoma thaw mound were small and thus rapidly consumed as shown by lower contributions to the CO2 produced during few weeks of aerobic incubation at 4 degrees C corresponding to approximately one thaw season. Future CO2 fluxes from the freshly thawed Yedoma will contain higher proportions of ancient inorganic (22%) and organic carbon (61-78%) as suggested by the results at the end, after 1.5 years of incubation. The increasing contribution of inorganic carbon during the incubation is favored by the accumulation of organic acids from microbial organic matter degradation resulting in lower pH values and, in consequence, in inorganic carbon dissolution. Because part of the inorganic carbon pool is assumed to be of pedogenic origin, these emissions would ultimately not alter carbon budgets. The results of this study highlight the preferential degradation of younger organic substrates in freshly thawed Yedoma, if available, and a substantial release of CO2 from inorganic sources.
Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of-and the interaction between-climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry C-14-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 C-14 dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity-whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition-can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.
Beyond CO2 equivalence
(2022)
In this article we review the physical and chemical properties of methane (CH4) relevant to impacts on climate, ecosystems, and air pollution, and examine the extent to which this is reflected in climate and air pollution governance. Although CH4 is governed under the UNFCCC climate regime, its treatment there is limited to the ways in which it acts as a "CO2 equivalent" climate forcer on a 100-year time frame. The UNFCCC framework neglects the impacts that CH4 has on near-term climate, as well its impacts on human health and ecosystems, which are primarily mediated by methane's role as a precursor to tropospheric ozone. Frameworks for air quality governance generally address tropospheric ozone as a pollutant, but do not regulate CH4 itself. Methane's climate and air quality impacts, together with its alarming rise in atmospheric concentrations in recent years, make it clear that mitigation of CH4 emissions needs to be accelerated globally. We examine challenges and opportunities for further progress on CH4 mitigation within the international governance landscapes for climate change and air pollution.
In some catchments, the distribution of annual maximum streamflow shows heavy tail behavior, meaning the occurrence probability of extreme events is higher than if the upper tail decayed exponentially. Neglecting heavy tail behavior can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme floods and the associated risk. Partly contradictory results regarding the controls of heavy tail behavior exist in the literature and the knowledge is still very dispersed and limited. To better understand the drivers, we analyze the upper tail behavior and its controls for 480 catchments in Germany and Austria over a period of more than 50 years. The catchments span from quickly reacting mountain catchments to large lowland catchments, allowing for general conclusions. We compile a wide range of event and catchment characteristics and investigate their association with an indicator of the tail heaviness of flood distributions, namely the shape parameter of the GEV distribution. Following univariate analyses of these characteristics, along with an evaluation of different aggregations of event characteristics, multiple linear regression models, as well as random forests, are constructed. A novel slope indicator, which represents the relation between the return period of flood peaks and event characteristics, captures the controls of heavy tails best. Variables describing the catchment response are found to dominate the heavy tail behavior, followed by event precipitation, flood seasonality, and catchment size. The pre-event moisture state in a catchment has no relevant impact on the tail heaviness even though it does influence flood magnitudes.
We construct and examine the prototype of a deep learning-based ground-motion model (GMM) that is both fully data driven and nonergodic. We formulate ground-motion modeling as an image processing task, in which a specific type of neural network, the U-Net, relates continuous, horizontal maps of earthquake predictive parameters to sparse observations of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM). The processing of map-shaped data allows the natural incorporation of absolute earthquake source and observation site coordinates, and is, therefore, well suited to include site-, source-, and path-specific amplification effects in a nonergodic GMM. Data-driven interpolation of the IM between observation points is an inherent feature of the U-Net and requires no a priori assumptions. We evaluate our model using both a synthetic dataset and a subset of observations from the KiK-net strong motion network in the Kanto basin in Japan. We find that the U-Net model is capable of learning the magnitude???distance scaling, as well as site-, source-, and path-specific amplification effects from a strong motion dataset. The interpolation scheme is evaluated using a fivefold cross validation and is found to provide on average unbiased predictions. The magnitude???distance scaling as well as the site amplification of response spectral acceleration at a period of 1 s obtained for the Kanto basin are comparable to previous regional studies.
The LArge-scale Reservoir Simulator (LARS) has been previously developed to study hydrate dissociation in hydrate-bearing systems under in-situ conditions. In the present study, a numerical framework of equations of state describing hydrate formation at equilibrium conditions has been elaborated and integrated with a numerical flow and transport simulator to investigate a multi-stage hydrate formation experiment undertaken in LARS. A verification of the implemented modeling framework has been carried out by benchmarking it against another established numerical code. Three-dimensional (3D) model calibration has been performed based on laboratory data available from temperature sensors, fluid sampling, and electrical resistivity tomography. The simulation results demonstrate that temperature profiles, spatial hydrate distribution, and bulk hydrate saturation are consistent with the observations. Furthermore, our numerical framework can be applied to calibrate geophysical measurements, optimize post-processing workflows for monitoring data, improve the design of hydrate formation experiments, and investigate the temporal evolution of sub-permafrost methane hydrate reservoirs.
The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s.
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.
We present two new empirical models of radiation belt electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-15 measurements of 0.8 MeV electrons were used to train a Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) neural network for both modeling GOES-15 flux values and an upper boundary condition scaling factor (BF). The GOES-15 flux model utilizes an input and feedback delay of 2 and 2 time steps (i.e., 5 min time steps) with the most efficient number of hidden layers set to 10. Magnetic local time, Dst, Kp, solar wind dynamic pressure, AE, and solar wind velocity were found to perform as predicative indicators of GOES-15 flux and therefore were used as the exogenous inputs. The NARX-derived upper boundary condition scaling factor was used in conjunction with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code to produce reconstructions of the radiation belts during the period of July-November 1990, independent of in-situ observations. Here, Kp was chosen as the sole exogenous input to be more compatible with the VERB code. This Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite-era reconstruction showcases the potential to use these neural network-derived boundary conditions as a method of hindcasting the historical radiation belts. This study serves as a companion paper to another recently published study on reconstructing the radiation belts during Solar Cycles 17-24 (Saikin et al., 2021, ), for which the results featured in this paper were used.
A review of source models to further the understanding of the seismicity of the Groningen field
(2022)
The occurrence of felt earthquakes due to gas production in Groningen has initiated numerous studies and model attempts to understand and quantify induced seismicity in this region. The whole bandwidth of available models spans the range from fully deterministic models to purely empirical and stochastic models. In this article, we summarise the most important model approaches, describing their main achievements and limitations. In addition, we discuss remaining open questions and potential future directions of development.
Urban surface runoff management via best management practices (BMP) and low impact development (LID) has earned significant recognition owing to positive environmental and ecological impacts. However, due to the complexity of the parameters involved, the estimation of LID efficiency in attenuating the urban surface runoff at the watershed scale is challenging. A planning analysis of employing Green Roofs and Infiltration Trenches as BMPs/LIDs practices for urban surface runoff control is presented in this study. A multi-objective optimization decision-making framework is established by coupling SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) with NSGA-II models to check the performance of BMPs/LIDs concerning the cost-benefit analysis of LID at the watershed scale. Two urbanized areas belonging to Central Delhi in India were used as case studies. The results showed that the SWMM model is useful in simulating optimization problems for managing urban surface runoff. The optimum scenarios efficiently minimized the urban runoff volume while maintaining the BMPs/LIDs implementation costs and size. With BMPs/LIDs implementation, the reduction in runoff volume increases as expenses increase initially; however, there is no noticeable reduction in flood volume after a certain threshold. Contrasted with the haphazard arrangement of BMPs/LIDs, the proposed approach demonstrates 22%-24% runoff reductions for the same expenditures in watershed 1 and 23%-26% in watershed 2. The result of the study provides insights into planning and management of the urban surface runoff control with LID practices. The proposed framework assists the hydrologists in optimum selection and placements of BMPs/LIDs practices to acquire the most extreme ecological advantages with the least expenses.
A novel idea for an optimal time delay state space reconstruction from uni- and multivariate time series is presented. The entire embedding process is considered as a game, in which each move corresponds to an embedding cycle and is subject to an evaluation through an objective function. This way the embedding procedure can be modeled as a tree, in which each leaf holds a specific value of the objective function. By using a Monte Carlo ansatz, the proposed algorithm populates the tree with many leafs by computing different possible embedding paths and the final embedding is chosen as that particular path, which ends at the leaf with the lowest achieved value of the objective function. The method aims to prevent getting stuck in a local minimum of the objective function and can be used in a modular way, enabling practitioners to choose a statistic for possible delays in each embedding cycle as well as a suitable objective function themselves. The proposed method guarantees the optimization of the chosen objective function over the parameter space of the delay embedding as long as the tree is sampled sufficiently. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the classical time delay embedding methods using a variety of application examples. We compare recurrence plot-based statistics inferred from reconstructions of a Lorenz-96 system and highlight an improved forecast accuracy for map-like model data as well as for palaeoclimate isotope time series. Finally, we utilize state space reconstruction for the detection of causality and its strength between observables of a gas turbine type thermoacoustic combustor.
Effect of temperature on the densification of silicate melts to lower earth's mantle conditions
(2022)
Physical properties of silicate melts play a key role for global planetary dynamics, controlling for example volcanic eruption styles, mantle convection and elemental cycling in the deep Earth. They are significantly modified by structural changes at the atomic scale due to external parameters such as pressure and temperature or due to chemistry. Structural rearrangements such as 4- to 6-fold coordination change of Si with increasing depth may profoundly influence melt properties, but have so far mostly been studied at ambient temperature due to experimental difficulties. In order to investigate the structural properties of silicate melts and their densification mechanisms at conditions relevant to the deep Earth's interior, we studied haplo basaltic glasses and melts (albite-diopside composition) at high pressure and temperature conditions in resistively and laser-heated diamond anvil cells using X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy. Samples were doped with 10 wt% of Ge, which is accessible with this experimental technique and which commonly serves as a structural analogue for the network forming cation Si. We acquired spectra on the Ge K edge up to 48 GPa and 5000 K and derived the average Ge-O coordination number NGe-O, and bond distance RGe-O as functions of pressure. Our results demonstrate a continuous transformation from tetrahedral to octahedral coordination between ca. 5 and 30 GPa at ambient temperature. Above 1600 K the data reveal a reduction of the pressure needed to complete conversion to octahedral coordination by ca. 30 %. The results allow us to determine the influence of temperature on the Si coordination number changes in natural melts in the Earth's interior. We propose that the complete transition to octahedral coordination in basaltic melts is reached at about 40 GPa, corresponding to a depth of ca. 1200 km in the uppermost lower mantle. At the core-mantle boundary (2900 km, 130 GPa, 3000 K) the existence of non-buoyant melts has been proposed to explain observed low seismic wave velocity features. Our results highlight that the melt composition can affect the melt density at such extreme conditions and may strongly influence the structural response.
Ground-motion models (GMMs) are often used to predict the random distribution of Spectral accelerations (SAs) at a site due to a nearby earthquake. In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, large earthquakes occurring close to a site are considered as critical scenarios. GMMs are expected to predict realistic SAs with low within-model uncertainty (sigma(mu)) for such rare scenarios. However, the datasets used to regress GMMs are usually deficient of data from critical scenarios. The (Kotha et al., A Regionally Adaptable Ground-Motion Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Europe Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 18:4091-4125, 2020) GMM developed from the Engineering strong motion (ESM) dataset was found to predict decreasing short-period SAs with increasing M-W >= M-h = 6.2, and with large sigma(mu) at near-source distances <= 30km. In this study, we updated the parametrisation of the GMM based on analyses of ESM and the Near source strong motion (NESS) datasets. With M-h = 5.7, we could rectify the M-W scaling issue, while also reducing sigma(mu). at M-W >= M-h. We then evaluated the GMM against NESS data, and found that the SAs from a few large, thrust-faulting events in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Mexico are significantly higher than GMM median predictions. However, recordings from these events were mostly made on soft-soil geology, and contain anisotropic pulse-like effects. A more thorough non-ergodic treatment of NESS was not possible because most sites sampled unique events in very diverse tectonic environments. We provide an updated set of GMM coefficients,sigma(mu), and heteroscedastic variance models; while also cautioning against its application for M-W <= 4 in low-moderate seismicity regions without evaluating the homogeneity of M-W estimates between pan-European ESM and regional datasets.
Frequency-domain electromagnetic (FDEM) data are commonly inverted to characterize subsurface geoelectrical properties using smoothness constraints in 1D inversion schemes assuming a layered medium.
Smoothness constraints are suitable for imaging gradual transitions of subsurface geoelectrical properties caused, for example, by varying sand, clay, or fluid content. However, such inversion approaches are limited in characterizing sharp interfaces. Alternative regularizations based on the minimum gradient support (MGS) stabilizers can, instead, be used to promote results with different levels of smoothness/sharpness selected by simply acting on the so-called focusing parameter.
The MGS regularization has been implemented for different kinds of geophysical data inversion strategies. However, concerning FDEM data, the MGS regularization has only been implemented for vertically constrained inversion (VCI) approaches but not for laterally constrained inversion (LCI) approaches.
We present a novel LCI approach for FDEM data using the MGS regularization for the vertical and lateral direction. Using synthetic and field data examples, we demonstrate that our approach can efficiently and automatically provide a set of model solutions characterized by different levels of sharpness and variable lateral consistencies.
In terms of data misfit, the obtained set of solutions contains equivalent models allowing us also to investigate the non-uniqueness of FDEM data inversion.
The Arctic is greatly affected by climate change. Increasing air temperatures drive permafrost thaw and an increase in coastal erosion and river discharge. This results in a greater input of sediment and organic matter into nearshore waters, impacting ecosystems by reducing light transmission through the water column and altering biogeochemistry. This potentially results in impacts on the subsistence economy of local people as well as the climate due to the transformation of suspended organic matter into greenhouse gases. Even though the impacts of increased suspended sediment concentrations and turbidity in the Arctic nearshore zone are well-studied, the mechanisms underpinning this increase are largely unknown. Wave energy and tides drive the level of turbidity in the temperate and tropical parts of the world, and this is generally assumed to also be the case in the Arctic. However, the tidal range is considerably lower in the Arctic, and processes related to the occurrence of permafrost have the potential to greatly contribute to nearshore turbidity. In this study, we use high-resolution satellite imagery alongside in situ and ERA5 reanalysis data of ocean and climate variables in order to identify the drivers of nearshore turbidity, along with its seasonality in the nearshore waters of Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk, in the western Canadian Arctic. Nearshore turbidity correlates well to wind direction, wind speed, significant wave height, and wave period. Nearshore turbidity is superiorly correlated to wind speed at the Beaufort Shelf compared to in situ measurements at Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk, showing that nearshore turbidity, albeit being of limited spatial extent, is influenced by large-scale weather and ocean phenomenons. We show that, in contrast to the temperate and tropical ocean, freshly eroded material is the predominant driver of nearshore turbidity in the Arctic, rather than resuspension, which is caused by the vulnerability of permafrost coasts to thermo-erosion.
The subsurface is a temporally dynamic and spatially heterogeneous compartment of the Earth's critical zone, and biogeochemical transformations taking place in this compartment are crucial for the cycling of nutrients.
The impact of spatial heterogeneity on such microbially mediated nutrient cycling is not well known, which imposes a severe challenge in the prediction of in situ biogeochemical transformation rates and further of nutrient loading contributed by the groundwater to the surface water bodies.
Therefore, we used a numerical modelling approach to evaluate the sensitivity of groundwater microbial biomass distribution and nutrient cycling to spatial heterogeneity in different scenarios accounting for various residence times.
The model results gave us an insight into domain characteristics with respect to the presence of oxic niches in predominantly anoxic zones and vice versa depending on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and the flow regime.
The obtained results show that microbial abundance, distribution, and activity are sensitive to the applied flow regime and that the mobile (i.e. observable by groundwater sampling) fraction of microbial biomass is a varying, yet only a small, fraction of the total biomass in a domain. Furthermore, spatial heterogeneity resulted in anaerobic niches in the domain and shifts in microbial biomass between active and inactive states. The lack of consideration of spatial heterogeneity, thus, can result in inaccurate estimation of microbial activity. In most cases this leads to an overestimation of nutrient removal (up to twice the actual amount) along a flow path.
We conclude that the governing factors for evaluating this are the residence time of solutes and the Damkohler number (Da) of the biogeochemical reactions in the domain. We propose a relationship to scale the impact of spatial heterogeneity on nutrient removal governed by the logioDa.
This relationship may be applied in upscaled descriptions of microbially mediated nutrient cycling dynamics in the subsurface thereby resulting in more accurate predictions of, for example, carbon and nitrogen cycling in groundwater over long periods at the catchment scale.
Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides.
Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September).
Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average.
Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons.
Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.
On their way from inland to the ocean, flowing water bodies, their constituents and their biotic communities are ex-posed to complex transport and transformation processes. However, detailed process knowledge as revealed by La-grangian measurements adjusted to travel time is rare in large rivers, in particular at hydrological extremes. To fill this gap, we investigated autotrophic processes, heterotrophic carbon utilization, and micropollutant concentrations applying a Lagrangian sampling design in a 600 km section of the River Elbe (Germany) at historically low discharge. Under base flow conditions, we expect the maximum intensity of instream processes and of point source impacts. Phy-toplankton biomass and photosynthesis increased from upstream to downstream sites but maximum chlorophyll con-centration was lower than at mean discharge. Concentrations of dissolved macronutrients decreased to almost complete phosphate depletion and low nitrate values. The longitudinal increase of bacterial abundance and production was less pronounced than in wetter years and bacterial community composition changed downstream. Molecular analyses revealed a longitudinal increase of many DOM components due to microbial production, whereas saturated lipid-like DOM, unsaturated aromatics and polyphenols, and some CHOS surfactants declined. In decomposition exper-iments, DOM components with high O/C ratios and high masses decreased whereas those with low O/C ratios, low masses, and high nitrogen content increased at all sites. Radiocarbon age analyses showed that DOC was relatively old (890-1870 years B.P.), whereas the mineralized fraction was much younger suggesting predominant oxidation of algal lysis products and exudates particularly at downstream sites. Micropollutants determining toxicity for algae (terbuthylazine, terbutryn, isoproturon and lenacil), hexachlorocyclohexanes and DDTs showed higher concentrations from the middle towards the downstream part but calculated toxicity was not negatively correlated to phytoplankton. Overall, autotrophic and heterotrophic process rates and micropollutant concentrations increased from up-to down-stream reaches, but their magnitudes were not distinctly different to conditions at medium discharges.
The Walker Circulation (WC) is an east-west trending band of atmospheric circulation cells along the equator and the predominant controller of heat and moisture transport in the tropics. Its variability is closely linked to the sea-surface temperature (SST) changes across the Pacific, the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans and can have pronounced effects on the humidity regimes of the adjacent continents. In recent years, the evolution of the WC during the Plioand Pleistocene epochs has been intensely studied in the context of the effectiveness of the tropics in modulating global climate change (e.g., the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation). However, the onset of the modern WC pattern as well as its global impact during the Plioand Pleistocene is controversially assessed in the literature. For its onset, previous studies have suggested dates ranging between 2.4 and 0.8 million years ago (Myr), while its argued impact ranges from crucially influencing the increase of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth by channelling heat and moisture from the tropics into the high latitudes to having no effect on global ice volume changes. In order to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of the WC during this time frame, we statistically analysed 30 globally distributed SST records covering the low and high latitudes between 3.5 and 1.5 Myr, encompassing the Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene. We utilized a statistical change-point regression model to determine significant change points in the SST evolution of the (sub)-tropics and high latitudes that potentially relate to changes in the WC. We find that the WC experienced a multifaceted evolution between the Late Pliocene and the Early Pleistocene with significant transitional steps at-2.7 and-2.1 Ma. Our results suggest after the Late Pliocene, a pre-modern WC set in, which was characterized by a progressively strengthened Pacific Walker Cell alongside a weakened Indian Ocean Walker Cell. This change was potentially triggered by the constriction of the Indonesian seaway, an important transmitter between the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ensuing mode of the WC intensified until-2.1 Myr, when SST values around the global scale signalled a progressive strengthening of the Indian Walker Cell in phase with the progressive strengthening of the Pacific and Atlantic Cells. Our findings indicate that a shift from a pre-modern to a modern-like WC potentially only occurred during the mid-Pleistocene.
In this study, 3-D models of P-wave velocity (Vp) and P-wave and S-wave ratio (Vp/Vs) of the crust and upper mantle in the Eastern and eastern Southern Alps (northern Italy and southern Austria) were calculated using local earthquake tomography (LET). The data set includes high-quality arrival times from well-constrained hypocenters observed by the dense, temporary seismic networks of the AlpArray AASN and SWATH-D. The resolution of the LET was checked by synthetic tests and analysis of the model resolution matrix. The small inter-station spacing (average of similar to 15 km within the SWATH-D network) allowed us to image crustal structure at unprecedented resolution across a key part of the Alps. The derived P velocity model revealed a highly heterogeneous crustal structure in the target area. One of the main findings is that the lower crust is thickened, forming a bulge at 30-50 km depth just south of and beneath the Periadriatic Fault and the Tauern Window. This indicates that the lower crust decoupled both from its mantle substratum as well as from its upper crust. The Moho, taken to be the iso-velocity contour of Vp = 7.25 km/s, agrees with the Moho depth from previous studies in the European and Adriatic forelands. It is shallower on the Adriatic side than on the European side. This is interpreted to indicate that the European Plate is subducted beneath the Adriatic Plate in the Eastern and eastern Southern Alps.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
Despite its high-seismogenic potential, the details of the seismogenic processes of Zagros Simply Folded Belt (SFB) remains debated. Three large earthquakes (M-w 7.3, 5.9 and 6.3) struck in the Lurestan arc of the Zagros SFB in 2017 and 2018. The sequence was recorded by seismic stations at regional, and teleseismic distances. Coseismic surface displacements, measured by Sentinel-1A/B satellites, provide additional data and a unique opportunity to study these earthquakes in detail. Here, we complement previous studies of the coseismic slip distribution of the 12 November 2017 M-w 7.3 Ezgeleh earthquake by a detailed analysis of its aftershocks, and we analysed the rupture process of the two interrelated earthquakes (25 August 2018 M-w 5.9 Tazehabad and the 25 November 2018 M-w 6.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes). We model the surface displacements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and seismic records. We conduct non-linear probabilistic optimizations based on joint InSAR and seismic data to obtain finite-fault rupture of these earthquakes. The Lurestan arc earthquakes were followed by a sustained aftershock activity, with 133 aftershocks exceeding M-n 4.0 until 30 December 2019. We rely on the permanent seismic networks of Iran and Iraq to relocate similar to 700 M-n 3 + events and estimate moment tensor solutions for 85 aftershocks down to M-w 4.0. The 2017 Ezgeleh earthquake has been considered to activate a low-angle (similar to 17 degrees) dextral-thrust fault at the depth of 10-20 km. However, most of its aftershocks have shallow centroid depths (8-12 km). The joint interpretation of finite source models, moment tensor and hypocentral location indicate that the 2018 Tazehabad and Sarpol-e Zahab earthquakes ruptured different strike-slip structures, providing evidence for the activation of the sinistral and dextral strike-slip faults, respectively. The deformation in the Lurestan arc is seismically accommodated by a complex fault system involving both thrust and strike-slip faults. Knowledge about the deformation characteristics is important for the understanding of crustal shortening, faulting and hazard and risk assessment in this region.
Data recorded by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) along an optical fibre sample the spatial and temporal properties of seismic wavefields at high spatial density. Often leading to massive amount of data when collected for seismic monitoring along many kilometre long cables. The spatially coherent signals from weak seismic arrivals within the data are often obscured by incoherent noise. We present a flexible and computationally efficient filtering technique, which makes use of the dense spatial and temporal sampling of the data and that can handle the large amount of data. The presented adaptive frequency-wavenumber filter suppresses the incoherent seismic noise while amplifying the coherent wavefield. We analyse the response of the filter in time and spectral domain, and we demonstrate its performance on a noisy data set that was recorded in a vertical borehole observatory showing active and passive seismic phase arrivals. Lastly, we present a performant open-source software implementation enabling real-time filtering of large DAS data sets.
Shallow earthquakes frequently disturb the hydrological and mechanical state of the subsurface, with consequences for hazard and water management. Transient post-seismic hydrological behavior has been widely reported, suggesting that the recovery of material properties (relaxation) following ground shaking may impact groundwater fluctuations. However, the monitoring of seismic velocity variations associated with earthquake damage and hydrological variations are often done assuming that both effects are independent. In a field site prone to highly variable hydrological conditions, we disentangle the different forcing of the relative seismic velocity variations delta v retrieved from a small dense seismic array in Nepal in the aftermath of the 2015 M-w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. We successfully model transient damage effects by introducing a universal relaxation function that contains a unique maximum relaxation timescale for the main shock and the aftershocks, independent of the ground shaking levels. Next, we remove the modeled velocity from the raw data and test whether the corresponding residuals agree with a background hydrological behavior we inferred from a previously calibrated groundwater model. The fitting of the delta v data with this model is improved when we introduce transient hydrological properties in the phase immediately following the main shock. This transient behavior, interpreted as an enhanced permeability in the shallow subsurface, lasts for similar to 6 months and is shorter than the damage relaxation (similar to 1 yr). Thus, we demonstrate the capability of seismic interferometry to deconvolve transient hydrological properties after earthquakes from non-linear mechanical recovery.
Extracting information about past tectonic or climatic environmental changes from sedimentary records is a key objective of provenance research. Interpreting the imprint of such changes remains challenging as signals might be altered in the sediment-routing system.
We investigate the sedimentary provenance of the Oligocene/Miocene Upper Austrian Northern Alpine Foreland Basin and its response to the tectonically driven exhumation of the Tauern Window metamorphic dome (28 +/- 1 Ma) in the Eastern European Alps by using the unprecedented combination of Nd isotopic composition of bulk-rock clay-sized samples and partly previously published multi-proxy (Nd isotopic composition, trace-element geochemistry, U-Pb dating) sand-sized apatite single-grain analysis.
The basin offers an excellent opportunity to investigate environmental signal propagation into the sedimentary record because comprehensive stratigraphic and seismic datasets can be combined with present research results. The bulk-rock clay-sized fraction epsilon Nd values of well-cutting samples from one well on the northern basin slope remained stable at similar to-9.7 from 27 to 19 Ma but increased after 19 Ma to similar to-9.1. In contrast, apatite single-grain distributions, which were extracted from 22 drill-core samples, changed significantly around 23.3 Ma from apatites dominantly from low-grade (<upper amphibolite-facies) metamorphic sources with Permo-Mesozoic and late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -4.4 to dominantly high-grade metamorphic apatites with late Variscan U-Pb ages and epsilon Nd values of -2.2.
The change in apatite single-grain distributions at 23.3 Ma is interpreted to result from the exposure of a new Upper Austroalpine source nappe with less negative epsilon Nd values triggered by the ongoing Tauern Window exhumation. Combining these data with the clay-sized bulk-rock epsilon Nd values reveals that the provenance changed 4-5 Myrs later at 19 Ma in the clay-sized fraction.
Reasons for the delayed provenance-change recording are rooted in the characteristics of the applied methods.
Whereas single-grain distributions of orogen-wide sediment-routing systems can be dominated by geographically small areas with high erosion and mineral fertility rates, bulk-rock methods integrate over the entire drainage basin, thus diminishing extreme values. Hence, by combining these two methods, spatial information are uncovered, enabling a previously unattained understanding of the underlying environmental change.
LegacyPollen 1.0
(2022)
Here we describe the LegacyPollen 1.0, a dataset of 2831 fossil pollen records with metadata, a harmonized taxonomy, and standardized chronologies.
A total of 1032 records originate from North America, 1075 from Europe, 488 from Asia, 150 from Latin America, 54 from Africa, and 32 from the Indo-Pacific.
The pollen data cover the late Quaternary (mostly the Holocene). The original 10 110 pollen taxa names (including variations in the notations) were harmonized to 1002 terrestrial taxa (including Cyperaceae), with woody taxa and major herbaceous taxa harmonized to genus level and other herbaceous taxa to family level.
The dataset is valuable for synthesis studies of, for example, taxa areal changes, vegetation dynamics, human impacts (e.g., deforestation), and climate change at global or continental scales.
The harmonized pollen and metadata as well as the harmonization table are available from PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.929773; Herzschuh et al., 2021). R code for the harmonization is provided at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5910972; Herzschuh et al., 2022) so that datasets at a customized harmonization level can be easily established.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has become an effective method to measure soil moisture at a horizontal scale of hundreds of metres and a depth of decimetres. Recent studies proposed operating CRNS in a network with overlapping footprints in order to cover root-zone water dynamics at the small catchment scale and, at the same time, to represent spatial heterogeneity. In a joint field campaign from September to November 2020 (JFC-2020), five German research institutions deployed 15 CRNS sensors in the 0.4 km2 Wüstebach catchment (Eifel mountains, Germany). The catchment is dominantly forested (but includes a substantial fraction of open vegetation) and features a topographically distinct catchment boundary. In addition to the dense CRNS coverage, the campaign featured a unique combination of additional instruments and techniques: hydro-gravimetry (to detect water storage dynamics also below the root zone); ground-based and, for the first time, airborne CRNS roving; an extensive wireless soil sensor network, supplemented by manual measurements; and six weighable lysimeters. Together with comprehensive data from the long-term local research infrastructure, the published data set (available at https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.756ca0485800474e9dc7f5949c63b872; Heistermann et al., 2022) will be a valuable asset in various research contexts: to advance the retrieval of landscape water storage from CRNS, wireless soil sensor networks, or hydrogravimetry; to identify scale-specific combinations of sensors and methods to represent soil moisture variability; to improve the understanding and simulation of land–atmosphere exchange as well as hydrological and hydrogeological processes at the hillslope and the catchment scale; and to support the retrieval of soil water content from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing platforms.
We have developed a 1D laterally constrained inversion of surface-wave dispersion curves based on the minimum gradient support regularization, which allows solutions with tunable sharpness in the vertical and horizontal directions. The forward modeling consists of a finite-elements approach incorporated in a flexible nonparametric gradient-based inversion scheme, which has already demonstrated good stability and convergence capabilities when tested on other kinds of data. Our deterministic inversion procedure is performed in the shear-wave velocity log space as we noticed that the associated Jacobian indicates a reduced model dependency, and this, in turn, decreases the risks of local nonconvexity. We show several synthetics and one field example to demonstrate the effectiveness and the applicability of the proposed approach.
We use a dense seismic network on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland, to image a group of earthquakes at 10-12 km depth, 2 km north-east of 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption site. These deep earthquakes have a lower frequency content compared to earthquakes located in the upper, brittle crust and are similar to deep long period (DLP) seismicity observed at other volcanoes in Iceland and around the world. We observed several swarms of DLP earthquakes between the start of the study period (June 2020) and the initiation of the 3-week-long dyke intrusion that preceded the eruption in March 2021. During the eruption, DLP earthquake swarms returned 1 km SW of their original location during periods when the discharge rate or fountaining style of the eruption changed. The DLP seismicity is therefore likely to be linked to the magma plumbing system beneath Fagradalsfjall. However, the DLP seismicity occurred similar to 5 km shallower than where petrological modelling places the near-Moho magma storage region in which the Fagradalsfjall lava was stored. We suggest that the DLP seismicity was triggered by the exsolution of CO2-rich fluids or the movement of magma at a barrier to the transport of melt in the lower crust. Increased flux through the magma plumbing system during the eruption likely adds to the complexity of the melt migration process, thus causing further DLP seismicity, despite a contemporaneous magma channel to the surface.
In seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.
Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.
40Ar/39Ar dating of a hydrothermal pegmatitic buddingtonite–muscovite assemblage from Volyn, Ukraine
(2022)
We determined Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of buddingtonite, occurring together with muscovite, with the laser-ablation method. This is the first attempt to date the NH4-feldspar buddingtonite, which is typical for sedimentary-diagenetic environments of sediments, rich in organic matter, or in hydrothermal environments, associated with volcanic geyser systems. The sample is a hydrothermal breccia, coming from the Paleoproterozoic pegmatite field of the Korosten Plutonic Complex, Volyn, Ukraine. A detailed characterization by optical methods, electron microprobe analyses, backscattered electron imaging, and IR analyses showed that the buddingtonite consists of euhedral-appearing platy crystals of tens of micrometers wide, 100 or more micrometers in length, which consist of fine-grained fibers of <= 1 mu m thickness. The crystals are sector and growth zoned in terms of K-NH4-H3O content. The content of K allows for an age determination with the Ar-40/Ar-39 method, as well as in the accompanying muscovite, intimately intergrown with the buddingtonite. The determinations on muscovite yielded an age of 1491 +/- 9 Ma, interpreted as the hydrothermal event forming the breccia. However, buddingtonite apparent ages yielded a range of 563 +/- 14 Ma down to 383 +/- 12 Ma, which are interpreted as reset ages due to Ar loss of the fibrous buddingtonite crystals during later heating. We conclude that buddingtonite is suited for Ar-40/Ar-39 age determinations as a supplementary method, together with other methods and minerals; however, it requires a detailed mineralogical characterization, and the ages will likely represent minimum ages.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in food systems is becoming more challenging as food is increasingly consumed away from producer regions, highlighting the need to consider emissions embodied in trade in agricultural emissions accounting.
To address this, our study explores recent trends in trade-adjusted agricultural emissions of food items at the global, regional, and national levels.
We find that emissions are largely dependent on a country’s consumption patterns and their agricultural emission intensities relative to their trading partners’.
The absolute differences between the production-based and trade-adjusted emissions accounting approaches are especially apparent for major agricultural exporters and importers and where large shares of emission-intensive items such as ruminant meat, milk products and rice are involved.
In relative terms, some low-income and emerging and developing economies with consumption of high emission intensity food products show large differences between approaches.
Similar trends are also found under various specifications that account for trade and re-exports differently.
These findings could serve as an important element towards constructing national emissions reduction targets that consider trading partners, leading to more effective emissions reductions overall.
Despite more than half a century of hominin fossil discoveries in eastern Africa, the regional environmental context of hominin evolution and dispersal is not well established due to the lack of continuous palaeoenvironmental records from one of the proven habitats of early human populations, particularly for the Pleistocene epoch. Here we present a 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, which is proximal to key fossil sites. Our record documents the potential influence of different episodes of climatic variability on hominin biological and cultural transformation. The appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups coincides with long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from similar to 620,000 to 275,000 years bp (episodes 1-6), interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimate perturbations. A pattern of pronounced climatic cyclicity transformed habitats during episodes 7-9 (similar to 275,000-60,000 years bp), a crucial phase encompassing the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of Homo sapiens in eastern Africa and key human social and cultural innovations. Those accumulative innovations plus the alignment of humid pulses between northeastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean during high-frequency climate oscillations of episodes 10-12 (similar to 60,000-10,000 years bp) could have facilitated the global dispersal of H. sapiens.
The new in situ geodynamic laboratory established in the framework of the ICDP Eger project aims to develop the most modern, comprehensive, multiparameter laboratory at depth for studying earthquake swarms, crustal fluid flow, mantle-derived CO2 and helium degassing, and processes of the deep biosphere. In order to reach a new level of high-frequency, near-source and multiparameter observation of earthquake swarms and related phenomena, such a laboratory comprises a set of shallow boreholes with high-frequency 3-D seismic arrays as well as modern continuous real-time fluid monitoring at depth and the study of the deep biosphere.
This laboratory is located in the western part of the Eger Rift at the border of the Czech Republic and Germany (in the West Bohemia–Vogtland geodynamic region) and comprises a set of five boreholes around the seismoactive zone. To date, all monitoring boreholes have been drilled. This includes the seismic monitoring boreholes S1, S2 and S3 in the crystalline units north and east of the major Nový Kostel seismogenic zone, borehole F3 in the Hartoušov mofette field and borehole S4 in the newly discovered Bažina maar near Libá. Supplementary borehole P1 is being prepared in the Neualbenreuth maar for paleoclimate and biological research. At each of these sites, a borehole broadband seismometer will be installed, and sites S1, S2 and S3 will also host a 3-D seismic array composed of a vertical geophone chain and surface seismic array. Seismic instrumenting has been completed in the S1 borehole and is in preparation in the remaining four monitoring boreholes. The continuous fluid monitoring site of Hartoušov includes three boreholes, F1, F2 and F3, and a pilot monitoring phase is underway. The laboratory also enables one to analyze microbial activity at CO2 mofettes and maar structures in the context of changes in habitats. The drillings into the maar volcanoes contribute to a better understanding of the Quaternary paleoclimate and volcanic activity.
The new in situ geodynamic laboratory established in the framework of the ICDP Eger project aims to develop the most modern, comprehensive, multiparameter laboratory at depth for studying earthquake swarms, crustal fluid flow, mantle-derived CO2 and helium degassing, and processes of the deep biosphere. In order to reach a new level of high-frequency, near-source and multiparameter observation of earthquake swarms and related phenomena, such a laboratory comprises a set of shallow boreholes with high-frequency 3-D seismic arrays as well as modern continuous real-time fluid monitoring at depth and the study of the deep biosphere.
This laboratory is located in the western part of the Eger Rift at the border of the Czech Republic and Germany (in the West Bohemia-Vogtland geodynamic region) and comprises a set of five boreholes around the seismoactive zone. To date, all monitoring boreholes have been drilled. This includes the seismic monitoring boreholes S1, S2 and S3 in the crystalline units north and east of the major Novy Kostel seismogenic zone, borehole F3 in the Hartousov mofette field and borehole S4 in the newly discovered Bazina maar near Liba. Supplementary borehole P1 is being prepared in the Neualbenreuth maar for paleoclimate and biological research. At each of these sites, a borehole broadband seismometer will be installed, and sites S1, S2 and S3 will also host a 3-D seismic array composed of a vertical geophone chain and surface seismic array. Seismic instrumenting has been completed in the S1 borehole and is in preparation in the remaining four monitoring boreholes. The continuous fluid monitoring site of Hartousov includes three boreholes, F1, F2 and F3, and a pilot monitoring phase is underway. The laboratory also enables one to analyze microbial activity at CO2 mofettes and maar structures in the context of changes in habitats. The drillings into the maar volcanoes contribute to a better understanding of the Quaternary paleoclimate and volcanic activity.
A novel approach for estimating precipitation patterns is developed here and applied to generate a new hydrologically corrected daily precipitation dataset, called RAIN4PE (Rain for Peru and Ecuador), at 0.1 degrees spatial resolution for the period 1981-2015 covering Peru and Ecuador. It is based on the application of 1) the random forest method to merge multisource precipitation estimates (gauge, satellite, and reanalysis) with terrain elevation, and 2) observed and modeled streamflow data to first detect biases and second further adjust gridded precipitation by inversely applying the simulated results of the ecohydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Hydrological results using RAIN4PE as input for the Peruvian and Ecuadorian catchments were compared against the ones when feeding other uncorrected (CHIRP and ERA5) and gauge-corrected (CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO) precipitation datasets into the model. For that, SWAT was calibrated and validated at 72 river sections for each dataset using a range of performance metrics, including hydrograph goodness of fit and flow duration curve signatures. Results showed that gauge-corrected precipitation datasets outperformed uncorrected ones for streamflow simulation. However, CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO showed limitations for streamflow simulation in several catchments draining into the Pacific Ocean and the Amazon River. RAIN4PE provided the best overall performance for streamflow simulation, including flow variability (low, high, and peak flows) and water budget closure. The overall good performance of RAIN4PE as input for hydrological modeling provides a valuable criterion of its applicability for robust countrywide hydrometeorological applications, including hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and floods. Significance StatementWe developed a novel precipitation dataset RAIN4PE for Peru and Ecuador by merging multisource precipitation data (satellite, reanalysis, and ground-based precipitation) with terrain elevation using the random forest method. Furthermore, RAIN4PE was hydrologically corrected using streamflow data in watersheds with precipitation underestimation through reverse hydrology. The results of a comprehensive hydrological evaluation showed that RAIN4PE outperformed state-of-the-art precipitation datasets such as CHIRP, ERA5, CHIRPS, MSWEP, and PISCO in terms of daily and monthly streamflow simulations, including extremely low and high flows in almost all Peruvian and Ecuadorian catchments. This underlines the suitability of RAIN4PE for hydrometeorological applications in this region. Furthermore, our approach for the generation of RAIN4PE can be used in other data-scarce regions.
Hydrodynamic interactions, i.e. the floodplain storage effects caused by inundations upstream on flood wave propagation, inundation areas, and flood damage downstream, are important but often ignored in large-scale flood risk assessments. Although new methods considering these effects sometimes emerge, they are often limited to a small or meso scale. In this study, we investigate the role of hydrodynamic interactions and floodplain storage on flood hazard and risk in the German part of the Rhine basin. To do so, we compare a new continuous 1D routing scheme within a flood risk model chain to the piece-wise routing scheme, which largely neglects floodplain storage. The results show that floodplain storage is significant, lowers water levels and discharges, and reduces risks by over 50%. Therefore, for accurate risk assessments, a system approach must be adopted, and floodplain storage and hydrodynamic interactions must carefully be considered.
Reconstructing thermal histories in thrust belts is commonly used to infer the age and rates of thrusting and hence the driving mechanisms of orogenesis.
In areas where ancient basins have been incorporated into the orogenic wedge, a quantitative reconstruction of the thermal history helps distinguish among potential mechanisms responsible for heating events.
We present such a reconstruction for the Ischigualasto-Villa Union basin in the western Pampean Ranges of Argentina, where Triassic rifting and late Cretaceous-Cenozoic retroarc foreland basin development has been widely documented, including Miocene flat-slab subduction.
We report results of organic and inorganic thermal indicators acquired along three stratigraphic sections, including vitrinite reflectance and X-ray diffractometry in claystones and new thermochronological [(apatite fission-track and apatite and zircon [U-Th]/He)] analyses.
Despite up to 5 km-thick Cenozoic overburden and unlike previously thought, the thermal peak in the basin is not due to Cenozoic burial but occurred in the Triassic, associated with a high heat flow of up to 90 mWm(-2) and <2 km of burial, which heated the base of the Triassic strata to similar to 160 degrees C. Following exhumation, attested by the development of an unconformity between the Triassic and Late-Cretaceous-Cenozoic sequences, Cenozoic re-burial increased the temperature to similar to 110 degrees C at the base of the Triassic section and only similar to 50 degrees C 7 km upsection, suggesting a dramatic decrease in the thermal gradient.
The onset of Cenozoic cooling occurred at similar to 10(-8) Ma, concomitant with sediment accumulation and thus preceding the latest Miocene onset of thrusting that has been independently documented by stratigraphic-cross-cutting relationships.
We argue that the onset of cooling is associated with lithospheric refrigeration following establishment of flat-slab subduction, leading to the eastward displacement of the asthenospheric wedge beneath the South American plate.
Our study places time and temperature constraints on flat-slab cooling that calls for a careful interpretation of exhumation signals in thrustbelts inferred from thermochronology only.
The Gofa Province and the Chew Bahir Basin of southern Ethiopia constitute tectonically active regions, where the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift converges with the Northern Kenya Rift through a wide zone of extensional deformation with several north to northeast-trending, left-stepping en-e & PRIME;chelon basins. This sector of the Southern Main Ethiopian Rift is characterized by a semi-arid climate and a largely uniform lithology, and thus provides ideal conditions for studying the different parameters that define the tectonic and geomorphic features of this complex kinematic transfer zone. In this study, the degree of tectonic activity, spatiotemporal variations in extension, and the nature of kinematic linkage between different fault systems of the transfer zone are constrained by detailed quantitative geomorphic analysis of river catchments and focused field work. We analyzed fluvial and landscape morphometric characteristics in combination with structural, seismicity, and climatic data to better evaluate the tectono-geomorphic history of this transfer zone. Our data reveal significant north-south variations in the degree of extension from the Sawula Basin in the north (mature) to the Chew Bahir Basin in the south (juvenile). First, normalized channel-steepness indices and the spatial arrangement of knickpoints in footwall-draining streams suggest a gradual, southward shift in extensional deformation and recent tectonic activity. Second, based on 1-k(m) radius local relief and mean-hillslope maximum values that are consistent with ksn anomalies, we confirm strain localization within zones of fault interaction. Third, morphometric indices such as hypsometry, basin asymmetry factor, and valley floor width to valley height ratio also indicate a north to south gradient in tectonic activity, highlighting the importance of such a wide transfer zone with diffuse extension linking different rift segments during the break-up of continental crust.