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Understanding and accounting for the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on global learning rates

  • Learning rates are a central concept in energy system models and integrated assessment models, as they allow researchers to project the future costs of new technologies and to optimize energy system costs. Here we argue that exchange rate fluctuations are an important, but thus far overlooked, determinant of the learning-rate variance observed in the literature. We explore how empirically observed global learning rates depend on where technologies are installed and which currency is used to calculate the learning rate. Using global data of large-scale photovoltaic (>= 5 MW) plants, we show that the currency choice can result in learning-rate differences of up to 16 percentage points. We then introduce an adjustment factor to correct for the effect of exchange rate and market focus fluctuations and discuss the implications of our findings for innovation scholars, energy modellers and decision makers. <br /> Learning rates are a measure of reduction in costs of energy from technologies such as solar photovoltaics. These are oftenLearning rates are a central concept in energy system models and integrated assessment models, as they allow researchers to project the future costs of new technologies and to optimize energy system costs. Here we argue that exchange rate fluctuations are an important, but thus far overlooked, determinant of the learning-rate variance observed in the literature. We explore how empirically observed global learning rates depend on where technologies are installed and which currency is used to calculate the learning rate. Using global data of large-scale photovoltaic (>= 5 MW) plants, we show that the currency choice can result in learning-rate differences of up to 16 percentage points. We then introduce an adjustment factor to correct for the effect of exchange rate and market focus fluctuations and discuss the implications of our findings for innovation scholars, energy modellers and decision makers. <br /> Learning rates are a measure of reduction in costs of energy from technologies such as solar photovoltaics. These are often estimated internationally with all monetary figures converted to a single currency, often US dollars. Lilliestam et al. show that such conversions can significantly affect the learning rate estimates.show moreshow less

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Author details:Johan LilliestamORCiD, Marc André MelligerORCiDGND, Lana OllierORCiD, Tobias S. SchmidtORCiDGND, Bjarne SteffenORCiDGND
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-019-0531-y
ISSN:2058-7546
Title of parent work (English):Nature energy
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Place of publishing:Berlin
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2020/01/13
Publication year:2020
Release date:2023/05/23
Volume:5
Issue:1
Number of pages:8
First page:71
Last Page:78
Funding institution:European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020; research and innovation programmeEuropean Research Council (ERC); [715132]
Organizational units:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Sozialwissenschaften
DDC classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 30 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie / 300 Sozialwissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access
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