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Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

  • Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

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Author details:Keywan RiahiORCiD, Christoph BertramORCiD, Daniel HuppmannORCiD, Joeri RogeljORCiD, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre DeppermannORCiD, Laurent DrouetORCiD, Stefan Frank, Oliver FrickoORCiD, Shinichiro FujimoriORCiD, Mathijs HarmsenORCiD, Tomoko HasegawaORCiD, Volker KreyORCiD, Gunnar LudererORCiDGND, Leonidas ParoussosORCiD, Roberto SchaefferORCiD, Matthias WeitzelORCiD, Bob van der ZwaanORCiD, Zoi VrontisiORCiD, Francesco Dalla LongaORCiD, Jacques DesprésORCiD, Florian FosseORCiD, Kostas FragkiadakisORCiD, Mykola Gusti, Florian HumpenöderORCiDGND, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Kishimoto, Elmar KrieglerORCiDGND, Malte MeinshausenORCiD, Larissa Pupo NogueiraORCiD, Ken OshiroORCiD, Alexander PoppORCiDGND, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Gamze ÜnlüORCiD, Bas van RuijvenORCiDGND, Junya TakakuraORCiD, Massimo TavoniORCiD, Detlef P. van VuurenORCiDGND, Behnam ZakeriORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
ISSN:1758-678X
ISSN:1758-6798
Title of parent work (English):Nature climate change
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Place of publishing:London
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2021/11/29
Publication year:2021
Release date:2024/01/10
Volume:11
Issue:12
Number of pages:7
First page:1063
Last Page:1069
Organizational units:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
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