Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre
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Institute
Promoting fathers to take parental leave is seen as a promising way to advance gender equality. However, there is still a very limited understanding of its impact on fathers’ labor market outcomes. We conducted a correspondence study to analyze whether fathers who take parental leave face discrimination during the hiring process in three different occupations. Fathers who took parental leave in a female-dominated or gender-neutral occupation are not less likely to be invited to a job interview compared to fathers who did not take leave. However, in the male-dominated occupation, fathers who have taken long parental leave are penalized. Regardless of leave-taking, fathers are treated less favorably than mothers in the female-dominated and the gender-neutral occupation, while the opposite is true for the male-dominated occupation. This suggests the presence of strong gender norms concerning the perception of ideal employees in different occupations.
We build a dynamic model in which home owners decide when and how to switch to carbon-neutral heating. Agents differ with regard to carbon intensity and abatement costs, the latter being private information which is non-observable by the government. The heating-related investment model is nested in an overlapping generations Mirrlesian optimal taxation model with heterogeneous home ownership and labor productivity. We develop a compensation mechanism which guarantees a weak Pareto-improvement for every agent when aggregate benefits of climate policy exceed aggregate costs. The mechanism includes carbon pricing with category-based transfers, uniform ad-valorem subsidies on investments that are financed by public debt, and an income tax adjustment based on climate mitigation benefits, used to service debt. We show that exact compensation of homeowners’ dynamic abatement cost requires only minimal information: the interest rate and the future fossil fuel price path. By means of exact compensation, our model utilizes the income-tax system to redistribute heterogeneous transformation costs between households according to any number of normative considerations without efficiency losses. We numerically illustrate subsidy rates and income tax adjustments for Germany.
Child penalties in labour market outcomes are well-documented: after childbirth, mothers’ employment and earnings drop persistently compared to fathers. Beyond gender norms, a potential driver could be the loss in labour market skills due to mothers’ longer employment interruptions. This paper estimates child penalties in adult cognitive skills by adapting the pseudo-panel approach to a single cross-section of 29 countries in the PIAAC dataset. We find a persistent drop in numeracy skills after childbirth for both parents between 0.13 (short-run) and 0.16 standard deviations (long-run), but no statistically significant difference between mothers and fathers. Estimates of child penalties in skills strongly depend on controlling for pre-determined characteristics, especially education. Additionally, there is no evidence for worse occupational skill matches for mothers after childbirth. Our findings suggest that changes in general labour market skills cannot explain child penalties in labour market outcomes, and that a cross-sectional estimation of child penalties can be sensitive to characteristics of the outcome variable.
We investigate the long-term effects of the introduction of the German minimum wage in 2015 and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using comprehensive survey data, we are able to measure the regional bite of the minimum wage in 2014, just before its introduction, as well as in 2018, before it was raised substantially in several steps. The introduction mainly affected the labour market in East Germany, while the minimum wage increases increasingly affected low-wage regions in West Germany, with about one third of regions changing their (binary) treatment status between 2014 and 2018. We use different specifications and extensions of the canonical difference-in-differences approach, as well as a set of new estimators that allow unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results show a small negative effect on total dependent employment of 0.5%, driven by a significant reduction in marginal employment of 2.4%. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in both periods.
Background
Despite being two Baltic countries with similar histories, Estonia and Lithuania have diverged in life expectancy trends in recent years. We investigated this divergence by comparing cause-specific mortality trends.
Methods
We obtained yearly mortality data for individuals 20 + years of age from 2001-2019 (19 years worth of data) through Statistics Lithuania, the Lithuanian Institute for Hygiene, and the National Institute for Health Development (Estonia). Using ICD-10 codes, we analyzed all-cause mortality rates and created eight major disease categories: ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, all other cardiovascular disease, cancers (neoplasms), digestive diseases, self-harm and interpersonal violence, unintentional injuries and related conditions, and other mortality (deaths per 100,000 population). We used joinpoint regression analysis, and analyzed the proportional contribution of each category to all-cause mortality.
Results
There was a steeper decline in all-cause mortality in Estonia (average annual percent change, AAPC = -2.55%, 95% CI: [-2.91%, -2.20%], P < .001) as compared to Lithuania (AAPC = -1.26%, 95% CI: [-2.18%, -0.57%], P = .001). For ischemic heart disease mortality Estonia exhibited a relatively larger decline over the 19-year period (AAPC = -6.61%, 95% CI: [-7.02%, -6.21%], P < .001) as compared to Lithuania (AAPC = -2.23%, 95% CI: [-3.40%, -1.04%], P < .001).
Conclusion
Estonia and Lithuania showed distinct mortality trends and distributions of major disease categories. Our findings highlight the role of ischemic heart disease mortality. Differences in public health care, management and prevention of ischemic heart disease, alcohol control policies may explain these differences.
The ambitious climate targets set by industrialized nations worldwide cannot be met without decarbonizing the building stock.
Using Germany as a case study, this paper takes stock of the extensive set of energy efficiency policies that are already in place and clarifies that they have been designed "in good faith" but lack in overall effectiveness as well as cost-efficiency in achieving these climate targets.
We map out the market failures and behavioural considerations that are potential reasons for why realized energy savings fall below expectations and why the household adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies has remained low. We highlight the pressing need for data and modern empirical research to develop targeted and cost-effective policies seeking to correct these market failures.
To this end, we identify some key research questions and identify gaps in the data required for evidence-based policy.
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.
Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded shortly after the conflict began and applying difference-in-differences (DiD) models over time, we find a significant decline in the outcome after the war started. These findings provide new evidence on how armed conflicts influence social trust and well-being among young people in a country not directly involved in the war.
High-growth firms (HGFs) are important for job creation and productivity growth. We investigate the relationship between product and labour market regulations, as well as the quality of regional governments that implement these regulations, and the development of HGFs across European regions. Using data from Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Economic Forum (WEF), and Gothenburg University, we show that both regulatory stringency and the quality of the regional government relate to the regional shares of HGFs. In particular, we find that the effect of labour and product market regulations is moderated by the quality of regional government. Depending on the quality of regional governments, regulations may have a ‘good, bad or ugly’ influence on the development of HGFs. Our findings contribute to the debate on the effects of regulations and offer important building blocks to develop tailored policy measures that may influence the development of HGFs in a region.
We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology.