Henrik Seckler, Ralf Metzler

• Modern single-particle-tracking techniques produce extensive time-series of diffusive motion in a wide variety of systems, from single-molecule motion in living-cells to movement ecology. The quest is to decipher the physical mechanisms encoded in the data and thus to better understand the probed systems. We here augment recently proposed machine-learning techniques for decoding anomalous-diffusion data to include an uncertainty estimate in addition to the predicted output. To avoid the Black-Box-Problem a Bayesian-Deep-Learning technique named Stochastic-Weight-Averaging-Gaussian is used to train models for both the classification of the diffusionmodel and the regression of the anomalous diffusion exponent of single-particle-trajectories. Evaluating their performance, we find that these models can achieve a wellcalibrated error estimate while maintaining high prediction accuracies. In the analysis of the output uncertainty predictions we relate these to properties of the underlying diffusion models, thus providing insights into theModern single-particle-tracking techniques produce extensive time-series of diffusive motion in a wide variety of systems, from single-molecule motion in living-cells to movement ecology. The quest is to decipher the physical mechanisms encoded in the data and thus to better understand the probed systems. We here augment recently proposed machine-learning techniques for decoding anomalous-diffusion data to include an uncertainty estimate in addition to the predicted output. To avoid the Black-Box-Problem a Bayesian-Deep-Learning technique named Stochastic-Weight-Averaging-Gaussian is used to train models for both the classification of the diffusionmodel and the regression of the anomalous diffusion exponent of single-particle-trajectories. Evaluating their performance, we find that these models can achieve a wellcalibrated error estimate while maintaining high prediction accuracies. In the analysis of the output uncertainty predictions we relate these to properties of the underlying diffusion models, thus providing insights into the learning process of the machine and the relevance of the output.…