What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?
- Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention andBased on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.…
Author details: | Ann Kristin KloseORCiD, Nico WunderlingORCiDGND, Ricarda WinkelmannORCiDGND, Jonathan DongesORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955 |
ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
Title of parent work (English): | Environmental research letters : ERL |
Publisher: | IOP Publ. Ltd. |
Place of publishing: | Bristol |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/12/25 |
Publication year: | 2021 |
Release date: | 2024/04/25 |
Tag: | cascading regime; domino effect; early warning indicators; shifts; tipping cascade; tipping interactions |
Volume: | 16 |
Issue: | 12 |
Article number: | 125011 |
Number of pages: | 11 |
Funding institution: | Leibniz Association; DFGGerman Research Foundation (DFG)European Commission [IRTG 1740/TRP 2015/50122-0]; FAPESPFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP); Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes; European Research Council Advanced Grant Project ERA (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene) [ERC-2016-ADG-743080]; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [820575, 869304, 23] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 69 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk / 690 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk | |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |