How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement
- Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the UnitedUsing a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.…
Author details: | Håkon SælenORCiDGND, Jon HoviGND, Detlef F. SprinzORCiDGND, Arild UnderdalGND |
---|---|
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011 |
ISSN: | 1462-9011 |
ISSN: | 1873-6416 |
Title of parent work (English): | Environmental science & policy |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Place of publishing: | Oxford |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2020/04/25 |
Publication year: | 2020 |
Release date: | 2023/10/12 |
Tag: | 2 degrees C target; Paris agreement; President Trump; agent-based modeling; climate change; reciprocity |
Volume: | 108 |
Number of pages: | 12 |
First page: | 121 |
Last Page: | 132 |
Funding institution: | CICEP: Strategic Challenges in International Climate and Energy Policy,; Research Council of Norway [209701] |
Organizational units: | Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Sozialwissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 30 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie / 300 Sozialwissenschaften |
3 Sozialwissenschaften / 32 Politikwissenschaft / 320 Politikwissenschaft | |
Peer review: | Referiert |