House price expectations
- This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.
| Author details: | Niklas GohlORCiDGND, Peter HaanORCiDGND, Claus MichelsenORCiDGND, Felix WeinhardtGND |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.12.015 |
| ISSN: | 0167-2681 |
| ISSN: | 1879-1751 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Journal of economic behavior & organization |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| Place of publishing: | Amsterdam |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first publication: | 2023/12/22 |
| Publication year: | 2023 |
| Release date: | 2024/04/10 |
| Volume: | 218 |
| Number of pages: | 20 |
| First page: | 379 |
| Last Page: | 398 |
| Organizational units: | Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre |
| DDC classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 30 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie / 300 Sozialwissenschaften |
| 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft | |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
