Non-linear time series analysis of precipitation events using regional climate networks for Germany
- Synchronous occurrences of heavy rainfall events and the study of their relation in time and space are of large socio-economical relevance, for instance for the agricultural and insurance sectors, but also for the general well-being of the population. In this study, the spatial synchronization structure is analyzed as a regional climate network constructed from precipitation event series. The similarity between event series is determined by the number of synchronous occurrences. We propose a novel standardization of this number that results in synchronization scores which are not biased by the number of events in the respective time series. Additionally, we introduce a new version of the network measure directionality that measures the spatial directionality of weighted links by also taking account of the effects of the spatial embedding of the network. This measure provides an estimate of heavy precipitation isochrones by pointing out directions along which rainfall events synchronize. We propose a climatological interpretation ofSynchronous occurrences of heavy rainfall events and the study of their relation in time and space are of large socio-economical relevance, for instance for the agricultural and insurance sectors, but also for the general well-being of the population. In this study, the spatial synchronization structure is analyzed as a regional climate network constructed from precipitation event series. The similarity between event series is determined by the number of synchronous occurrences. We propose a novel standardization of this number that results in synchronization scores which are not biased by the number of events in the respective time series. Additionally, we introduce a new version of the network measure directionality that measures the spatial directionality of weighted links by also taking account of the effects of the spatial embedding of the network. This measure provides an estimate of heavy precipitation isochrones by pointing out directions along which rainfall events synchronize. We propose a climatological interpretation of this measure in terms of propagating fronts or event traces and confirm it for Germany by comparing our results to known atmospheric circulation patterns.…
| Author details: | Aljoscha RheinwaltORCiDGND, Niklas BoersORCiDGND, Norbert MarwanORCiDGND, Jürgen KurthsORCiDGND, Peter Hoffmann, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Peter Werner |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2632-z |
| ISSN: | 0930-7575 |
| ISSN: | 1432-0894 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system |
| Publisher: | Springer |
| Place of publishing: | New York |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Year of first publication: | 2016 |
| Publication year: | 2016 |
| Release date: | 2020/03/22 |
| Tag: | Anisotropy; Complex networks; Dominant link directions; Event synchronization; Isochrones; Precipitation events; Rainfall |
| Volume: | 46 |
| Number of pages: | 10 |
| First page: | 1065 |
| Last Page: | 1074 |
| Funding institution: | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [MA 4759/4-1]; International Research Training Group (IRTG) [1740/TRP 2011/50151-0]; DFG and the Foundation for Research Support of the State of Sao Paulo (FAPESP) |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |
