A modern pollen-climate dataset from China and Mongolia: assessing its potential for climate reconstruction
- A modern pollen dataset from China and Mongolia (18-52 degrees N, 74-132 degrees E) is investigated for its potential use in climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 2559 samples, 229 terrestrial pollen taxa and four climatic variables - mean annual precipitation (P-ann): 35-2091 mm, mean annual temperature (T-ann): -12.1-25.8 degrees C, mean temperature in the coldest month (Mt(co).): -33.8-21.7 degrees C, and mean temperature in the warmest month (Mt(wa)): 03-29.8 degrees C. Modern pollen-climate relationships are assessed using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models, the modern analogue technique (MAT), and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). Results indicate that P-ann is the most important climatic determinant of pollen distribution and the most promising climate variable for reconstructions, as assessed by the coefficient of determination between observed and predicted environmental values (r(2)) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). Mt(co) and Mt(wa) may beA modern pollen dataset from China and Mongolia (18-52 degrees N, 74-132 degrees E) is investigated for its potential use in climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 2559 samples, 229 terrestrial pollen taxa and four climatic variables - mean annual precipitation (P-ann): 35-2091 mm, mean annual temperature (T-ann): -12.1-25.8 degrees C, mean temperature in the coldest month (Mt(co).): -33.8-21.7 degrees C, and mean temperature in the warmest month (Mt(wa)): 03-29.8 degrees C. Modern pollen-climate relationships are assessed using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models, the modern analogue technique (MAT), and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). Results indicate that P-ann is the most important climatic determinant of pollen distribution and the most promising climate variable for reconstructions, as assessed by the coefficient of determination between observed and predicted environmental values (r(2)) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). Mt(co) and Mt(wa) may be reconstructed too, but with caution. Samples from different depositional environments influence the performance of cross-validation differently, with samples from lake sediment-surfaces and moss polsters having the best fit with the lowest RMSEP. The better model performances of MAT are most probably caused by spatial autocorrelation. Accordingly, the WA-PLS models of this dataset are deemed most suitable for reconstructing past climate quantitatively because of their more reliable predictive power. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.…
Author details: | Xianyong CaoORCiDGND, Ulrike HerzschuhORCiDGND, Richard J. Telford, Jian Ni |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revpalbo.2014.08.007 |
ISSN: | 0034-6667 |
ISSN: | 1879-0615 |
Title of parent work (English): | Review of palaeobotany and palynology : an international journal |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Place of publishing: | Amsterdam |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2014 |
Publication year: | 2014 |
Release date: | 2017/03/26 |
Tag: | Calibration; Huisman-Olff-Fresco models; MAT; Pollen-climate transfer function; Spatial autocorrelation; WA-PLS |
Volume: | 211 |
Number of pages: | 10 |
First page: | 87 |
Last Page: | 96 |
Funding institution: | German Research Foundation (DFG); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Helmholtz-China Scholarship Council (CSC) Young Scientist Fellowship [20100813031]; Norwegian Research Council FriMedBio project palaeoDrivers [213607] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |