From Ergodic to Region- and Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Method Development and Application at European and Middle Eastern Sites
- The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors (delta S2S(s)) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The delta S2S(s) are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region-and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability (phi(S2S)) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) delta S2S(s) at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori phi(S2S), and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability sigma(ss,s) is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability sigma(0). Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sitesThe increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors (delta S2S(s)) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The delta S2S(s) are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region-and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability (phi(S2S)) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) delta S2S(s) at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori phi(S2S), and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability sigma(ss,s) is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability sigma(0). Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels-a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.…
Verfasserangaben: | Sreeram Reddy KothaORCiDGND, Dino BindiORCiD, Fabrice CottonORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1193/081016EQS130M |
ISSN: | 8755-2930 |
ISSN: | 1944-8201 |
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch): | Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute |
Verlag: | Earthquake Engineering Research Institute |
Verlagsort: | Oakland |
Publikationstyp: | Wissenschaftlicher Artikel |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung: | 2017 |
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2017 |
Datum der Freischaltung: | 20.04.2020 |
Band: | 33 |
Seitenanzahl: | 21 |
Erste Seite: | 1433 |
Letzte Seite: | 1453 |
Fördernde Institution: | [676564] |
Organisationseinheiten: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
Peer Review: | Referiert |
Name der Einrichtung zum Zeitpunkt der Publikation: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |