Robert A. Bindschadler, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang
- Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increaseTen ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.…
MetadatenAuthor details: | Robert A. Bindschadler, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-OuchiORCiD, Andy Aschwanden, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, Wei Li Wang |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125 |
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ISSN: | 0022-1430 |
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Title of parent work (English): | Journal of glaciology |
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Publisher: | International Glaciological Society |
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Place of publishing: | Cambridge |
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Publication type: | Article |
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Language: | English |
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Year of first publication: | 2013 |
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Publication year: | 2013 |
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Release date: | 2017/03/26 |
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Volume: | 59 |
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Issue: | 214 |
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Number of pages: | 30 |
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First page: | 195 |
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Last Page: | 224 |
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Funding institution: | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [22244058]; NASA
[NNX11AP39G, NNX-09-AV94G, NNX-10-AI04G, 281945.02.53.02.19]; US
National Science Foundation (NSF) [0531211, 0758274, 0909335]; Center
for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) [0424589]; NSF [0909335,
ANT-0424589, 1043018, 25-0550-0001, OCE-1202632, CReSIS 0424589]; US
Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Office of Biological and
Environmental Research; DOE's Office of Science [DE-AC02-05CH11231,
DE-AC05-000R22725]; Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Research Technology
and Development Program; Gary Comer Science and Education Foundation |
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Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
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Peer review: | Referiert |
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