The 'pause' in global warming in historical context
- We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Author details: | Stephan LewandowskyORCiD, Kevin Cowtan, James S. RisbeyORCiD, Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman, Naomi Oreskes, Stefan RahmstorfORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 |
ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
Title of parent work (English): | Environmental research letters |
Subtitle (German): | (II). comparing models to observations |
Publisher: | IOP Publ. Ltd. |
Place of publishing: | Bristol |
Publication type: | Review |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2018/12/19 |
Publication year: | 2018 |
Release date: | 2021/09/06 |
Volume: | 13 |
Issue: | 12 |
Number of pages: | 25 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 52 Astronomie / 520 Astronomie und zugeordnete Wissenschaften |
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik | |
License (English): | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0 Unported |