Predicting Patagonian landslides
- Dense tree stands and high wind speeds characterize the temperate rainforests of southern Chilean Patagonia, where landslides frequently strip hillslopes of soils, rock, and biomass. Assuming that wind loads on trees promote slope instability, we explore the role of forest cover and wind speed in predicting landslides with a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. We find that higher crown openness and wind speeds credibly predict higher probabilities of detecting landslides regardless of topographic location, though much better in low-order channels and on midslope locations than on open slopes. Wind speed has less predictive power in areas that were impacted by tephra fall from recent volcanic eruptions, while the influence of forest cover in terms of crown openness remains. <br /> Plain Language Summary Chilean Patagonia hosts some of Earth's largest swaths of temperate rainforests, where frequent landslides erode soil, rock, and vegetation. We explore the role of forest cover and wind disturbances in promoting such landslidesDense tree stands and high wind speeds characterize the temperate rainforests of southern Chilean Patagonia, where landslides frequently strip hillslopes of soils, rock, and biomass. Assuming that wind loads on trees promote slope instability, we explore the role of forest cover and wind speed in predicting landslides with a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. We find that higher crown openness and wind speeds credibly predict higher probabilities of detecting landslides regardless of topographic location, though much better in low-order channels and on midslope locations than on open slopes. Wind speed has less predictive power in areas that were impacted by tephra fall from recent volcanic eruptions, while the influence of forest cover in terms of crown openness remains. <br /> Plain Language Summary Chilean Patagonia hosts some of Earth's largest swaths of temperate rainforests, where frequent landslides erode soil, rock, and vegetation. We explore the role of forest cover and wind disturbances in promoting such landslides with a model that predicts from crown openness and wind speed the probability of detecting landslide terrain. We find that both forest cover and wind speed play important, yet previously underappreciated, roles in this context, especially when grouped by landform types and previous volcanic disturbance, which may override the comparable modest control of wind on landslides. Our study is the first of its kind in one of the windiest spots on Earth and encourages a more discerning approach to landslide prediction.…
Author details: | Eric Parra HormazábalORCiDGND, Christian Heinrich MohrORCiDGND, Oliver KorupORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095224 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union |
Subtitle (English): | roles of forest cover and wind speed |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/12/16 |
Publication year: | 2021 |
Release date: | 2023/01/13 |
Volume: | 48 |
Issue: | 23 |
Article number: | e2021GL095224 |
Number of pages: | 10 |
Funding institution: | Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo, Chile (ANID); German Academic Exchange Service, Germany (DAAD)Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD); Projekt DEAL |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |