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Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming
- Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today'sProjections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.…
Verfasserangaben: | Jacob ScheweORCiD, Anders LevermannORCiDGND |
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URN: | urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419114 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-41911 |
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch): | Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe |
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer): | Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (630) |
Publikationstyp: | Postprint |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung: | 19.02.2019 |
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2017 |
Veröffentlichende Institution: | Universität Potsdam |
Datum der Freischaltung: | 19.02.2019 |
Freies Schlagwort / Tag: | CMIP5; Holocene; West African monsoon; abrupt monsoon transitions; climate; jet; moisture-advection feedback; ocean |
Ausgabe: | 630 |
Seitenanzahl: | 11 |
Erste Seite: | 495 |
Letzte Seite: | 505 |
Quelle: | Earth System Dynamics 8 (2017) 3, pp. 495–505 DOI 10.5194/esd-8-495-2017 |
Organisationseinheiten: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät |
DDC-Klassifikation: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer Review: | Referiert |
Publikationsweg: | Open Access |
Lizenz (Deutsch): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |