- Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, withGreat megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.…
MetadatenAuthor details: | Daniel MelnickORCiDGND, Shaoyang LiORCiD, Marcos MorenoORCiD, Marco Cisternas, Julius Jara MuñozORCiDGND, Robert Wesson, Alan Nelson, Juan Carlos Baez, Zhiguo DengORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6 |
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ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
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Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30166533 |
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Title of parent work (English): | Nature Communications |
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Publisher: | Nature Publ. Group |
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Place of publishing: | London |
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Publication type: | Article |
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Language: | English |
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Date of first publication: | 2018/08/30 |
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Publication year: | 2018 |
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Release date: | 2021/10/12 |
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Volume: | 9 |
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Number of pages: | 10 |
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Funding institution: | Millennium Nucleus The Seismic Cycle Along Subduction Zones - Millennium Scientific Initiative (ICM) of the Chilean Government [NC160025]; Chilean National Fund for Development of Science and Technology (FONDECYT)Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT)CONICYT FONDECYT [1150321, 1181479]; German Science Foundation (DFG)German Research Foundation (DFG) [ME 3157/4-2, MO 2310/1-1]; U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF)National Science Foundation (NSF) [RAPID EAR-1036057]; Earthquake Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey |
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Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
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DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik |
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License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
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External remark: | Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 678 |
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