Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles:
- The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices-from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of average profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust.
Author details: | Alexander Konon, Alexander KritikosORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0111-8 |
ISSN: | 0921-898X |
ISSN: | 1573-0913 |
Title of parent work (English): | Small business economics : an international journal |
Subtitle (German): | sometimes worse than the toss of a coin |
Publisher: | Springer |
Place of publishing: | Dordrecht |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2018/11/10 |
Publication year: | 2018 |
Release date: | 2021/02/17 |
Tag: | Advice; Entrepreneurship; Personality; Profiles |
Volume: | 53 |
Issue: | 1 |
Number of pages: | 20 |
First page: | 1 |
Last Page: | 20 |
Organizational units: | Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Green Open-Access |