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Pattern-process analysis is one of the main threads in landscape ecological research. It aims at understanding the complex relationships between ecological processes and landscape patterns, identifying the underlying mechanisms and deriving valid predictions for scenarios of landscape change and its consequences. Today, various studies cope with these tasks through so called "landscape modelling" approaches. They integrate different aspects of heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes and model different driving forces, often using both statistical and process-oriented techniques. We identify two main approaches to deal with the analysis of pattern-process interactions: the first starts with pattern detection, pattern description and pattern analysis, the second with process description, simulation and pattern generation. Focussing on the interplay between these two approaches, landscape analysis and landscape modelling will improve our understanding of pattern-process interactions. The comparison of simulated and observed pattern is a prerequisite for both approaches. Therefore, we identify a set of quantitative, robust, and reproducible methods for the analysis of spatiotemporal patterns that is a starting point for a standard toolbox for ecologists as major future challenge and suggest necessary further methodological developments. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The overuse of rainforests in the last century and its consequences necessitate a rethinking of logging policies. To this end models have been developed to simulate rainforest dynamics and to allow optional management strategies to be evaluated. Parameterisation of presently existing models for a certain site needs a lot of work, thus the parameterisation effort is too high to apply the models to a wide range of rainforests. Hence, in this paper we introduce the simplified model FORREG using the knowledge we have gained from a more complex model, FORMIX3-Q. The FORREG model uses differential equations to determine the volume growth of three successional species groups. Parameterisation is simplified by a genetic algorithm, which determines the required internal model parameters from characteristics of the forest dynamics. The new model is employed to assess the sustainability of various logging policies in terms of yield and damage. Results for three forests are discussed: (1) the tropical lowland rain forest in the Deramakot Forest Reserve, (2) the Lambir National Park in Malaysia and (3) a subtropical forest in Paraguay. Our model reproduces both undisturbed forest dynamics and dynamics of logged forests simulated with FORMIX3-Q very well. However, the resultant volumes of yield and damage differ slightly from those gained by FORMIX3-Q if short logging cycles are simulated. Choosing longer logging cycles leads to a good correspondence of both models. For the Deramakot Forest Reserve different logging cycles are compared and discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The sensitivity of fluvial systems to tectonic and climatic boundary conditions allows us to use the geomorphic and stratigraphic records as quantitative archives of past climatic and tectonic conditions. Thus, fluvial terraces that form on alluvial fans and floodplains as well as the rate of sediment export to oceanic and continental basins are commonly used to reconstruct paleoenvironments. However, we currently lack a systematic and quantitative understanding of the transient evolution of fluvial systems and their associated sediment storage and release in response to changes in base level, water input, and sediment input. Such knowledge is necessary to quantify past environmental change from terrace records or sedimentary deposits and to disentangle the multiple possible causes for terrace formation and sediment deposition. Here, we use a set of seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a single, braided channel that is perturbed by changes in upstream water discharge or sediment supply, or through downstream base-level fall. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace cutting, and (3) the transient response of sediment export from the basin. In general, an increase in water discharge leads to near-instantaneous channel incision across the entire fluvial system and consequent local terrace cutting, thus preserving the initial channel slope on terrace surfaces, and it also produces a transient increase in sediment export from the system. In contrast, a decreased upstream sediment-supply rate may result in longer lag times before terrace cutting, leading to terrace slopes that differ from the initial channel slope, and also lagged responses in sediment export. Finally, downstream base-level fall triggers the upstream propagation of a diffuse knickzone, forming terraces with upstream-decreasing ages. The slope of terraces triggered by base-level fall mimics that of the newly adjusted active channel, whereas slopes of terraces triggered by a decrease in upstream sediment discharge or an increase in upstream water discharge are steeper compared to the new equilibrium channel. By combining fillterrace records with constraints on sediment export, we can distinguish among environmental perturbations that would otherwise remain unresolved when using just one of these records.
The sensitivity of fluvial systems to tectonic and climatic boundary conditions allows us to use the geomorphic and stratigraphic records as quantitative archives of past climatic and tectonic conditions. Thus, fluvial terraces that form on alluvial fans and floodplains as well as the rate of sediment export to oceanic and continental basins are commonly used to reconstruct paleoenvironments. However, we currently lack a systematic and quantitative understanding of the transient evolution of fluvial systems and their associated sediment storage and release in response to changes in base level, water input, and sediment input. Such knowledge is necessary to quantify past environmental change from terrace records or sedimentary deposits and to disentangle the multiple possible causes for terrace formation and sediment deposition. Here, we use a set of seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a single, braided channel that is perturbed by changes in upstream water discharge or sediment supply, or through downstream base-level fall. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace cutting, and (3) the transient response of sediment export from the basin. In general, an increase in water discharge leads to near-instantaneous channel incision across the entire fluvial system and consequent local terrace cutting, thus preserving the initial channel slope on terrace surfaces, and it also produces a transient increase in sediment export from the system. In contrast, a decreased upstream sediment-supply rate may result in longer lag times before terrace cutting, leading to terrace slopes that differ from the initial channel slope, and also lagged responses in sediment export. Finally, downstream base-level fall triggers the upstream propagation of a diffuse knickzone, forming terraces with upstream-decreasing ages. The slope of terraces triggered by base-level fall mimics that of the newly adjusted active channel, whereas slopes of terraces triggered by a decrease in upstream sediment discharge or an increase in upstream water discharge are steeper compared to the new equilibrium channel. By combining fillterrace records with constraints on sediment export, we can distinguish among environmental perturbations that would otherwise remain unresolved when using just one of these records.
The functioning of the surface water-groundwater interface as buffer, filter and reactive zone is important for water quality, ecological health and resilience of streams and riparian ecosystems. Solute and heat exchange across this interface is driven by the advection of water. Characterizing the flow conditions in the streambed is challenging as flow patterns are often complex and multidimensional, driven by surface hydraulic gradients and groundwater discharge. This thesis presents the results of an integrated approach of studies, ranging from the acquisition of field data, the development of analytical and numerical approaches to analyse vertical temperature profiles to the detailed, fully-integrated 3D numerical modelling of water and heat flux at the reach scale. All techniques were applied in order to characterize exchange flux between stream and groundwater, hyporheic flow paths and temperature patterns.
The study was conducted at a reach-scale section of the lowland Selke River, characterized by distinctive pool riffle sequences and fluvial islands and gravel bars. Continuous time series of hydraulic heads and temperatures were measured at different depths in the river bank, the hyporheic zone and within the river. The analyses of the measured diurnal temperature variation in riverbed sediments provided detailed information about the exchange flux between river and groundwater. Beyond the one-dimensional vertical water flow in the riverbed sediment, hyporheic and parafluvial flow patterns were identified. Subsurface flow direction and magnitude around fluvial islands and gravel bars at the study site strongly depended on the position around the geomorphological structures and on the river stage. Horizontal water flux in the streambed substantially impacted temperature patterns in the streambed. At locations with substantial horizontal fluxes the penetration depths of daily temperature fluctuations was reduced in comparison to purely vertical exchange conditions.
The calibrated and validated 3D fully-integrated model of reach-scale water and heat fluxes across the river-groundwater interface was able to accurately represent the real system. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 °C and an average Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.87. The simulation results showed that the water and heat exchange at the surface water-groundwater interface is highly variable in space and time with zones of daily temperature oscillations penetrating deep into the sediment and spots of daily constant temperature following the average groundwater temperature. The average hyporheic flow path temperature was found to strongly correlate with the flow path residence time (flow path length) and the temperature gradient between river and groundwater. Despite the complexity of these processes, the simulation results allowed the derivation of a general empirical relationship between the hyporheic residence times and temperature patterns. The presented results improve our understanding of the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of water flux and thermal processes within the shallow streambed. Understanding these links provides a general basis from which to assess hyporheic temperature conditions in river reaches.
The sustainability of agro-bioenergy systems is dependent on many factors, some local or regional in implementation, some others global in nature. This study assessed the effects of often ignored local and regional factors (e.g. alternative agronomic factor options, alternative agricultural production systems, alternative biomass flows, alternative conversion technologies etc. The results from this study suggests that key to enhancing the energy efficiency (and by extension the sustainability) of agro-bioenergy systems is paying attention to local and regional factors such as biomass conversion technology, alternative agronomic factor options, alternative agricultural production systems and available biomass flows.
Understanding the distribution of species is fundamental for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem management, and increasingly also for climate impact assessment. The presence of a species in a given site depends on physiological limitations (abiotic factors), interactions with other species (biotic factors), migratory or dispersal processes (site accessibility) as well as the continuing
effects of past events, e.g. disturbances (site legacy). Existing approaches to predict species distributions either (i) correlate observed species occurrences with environmental variables describing abiotic limitations, thus ignoring biotic interactions, dispersal and legacy effects (statistical species distribution model, SDM); or (ii) mechanistically model the variety of processes determining species distributions (process-based model, PBM). SDMs are widely used due to their easy applicability and ability to handle varied data qualities. But they fail to reproduce the dynamic response of species distributions to changing conditions. PBMs are expected to be superior in this respect, but they need very specific data unavailable for many species, and are often more complex and require more computational effort. More recently, hybrid models link the two approaches to combine their respective strengths.
In this thesis, I apply and compare statistical and process-based approaches to predict species distributions, and I discuss their respective limitations, specifically for applications in changing environments. Detailed analyses of SDMs for boreal tree species in Finland reveal that nonclimatic predictors - edaphic properties and biotic interactions - are important limitations at the treeline, contesting the assumption of unrestricted, climatically induced range expansion. While the estimated SDMs are successful within their training data range, spatial and temporal model transfer fails. Mapping and comparing sampled predictor space among data subsets identifies spurious extrapolation as the plausible explanation for limited model transferability. Using these findings, I analyze the limited success of an established PBM (LPJ-GUESS) applied to the same problem. Examination of process representation and parameterization in the PBM identifies implemented processes to adjust (competition between species, disturbance) and missing processes that are crucial in boreal forests (nutrient limitation, forest management). Based on climatic correlations shifting over time, I stress the restricted temporal transferability of bioclimatic limits used in LPJ-GUESS and similar PBMs. By critically assessing the performance of SDM and PBM in this application, I demonstrate the importance of understanding the limitations of the
applied methods.
As a potential solution, I add a novel approach to the repertoire of existing hybrid models. By simulation experiments with an individual-based PBM which reproduces community dynamics resulting from biotic factors, dispersal and legacy effects, I assess the resilience of coastal vegetation to abrupt hydrological changes. According to the results of the resilience analysis, I then modify temporal SDM predictions, thereby transferring relevant process detail from PBM to
SDM. The direction of knowledge transfer from PBM to SDM avoids disadvantages of current hybrid models and increases the applicability of the resulting model in long-term, large-scale applications. A further advantage of the proposed framework is its flexibility, as it is readily extended to other model types, disturbance definitions and response characteristics.
Concluding, I argue that we already have a diverse range of promising modelling tools at hand, which can be refined further. But most importantly, they need to be applied more thoughtfully. Bearing their limitations in mind, combining their strengths and openly reporting underlying assumptions and uncertainties is the way forward.
Volcano dome deformation processes analysed with high resolution InSAR and camera-based techniques
(2017)
One of the major challenges related with the current practice in seismic hazard studies is the adjustment of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to different seismological environments. We believe that the key to accommodating differences in regional seismological attributes of a ground motion model lies in the Fourier spectrum. In the present study, we attempt to explore a new approach for the development of response spectral GMPEs, which is fully consistent with linear system theory when it comes to adjustment issues. This approach consists of developing empirical prediction equations for Fourier spectra and for a particular duration estimate of ground motion which is tuned to optimize the fit between response spectra obtained through the random vibration theory framework and the classical way. The presented analysis for the development of GMPEs is performed on the recently compiled reference database for seismic ground motion in Europe (RESORCE-2012). Although, the main motivation for the presented approach is the adjustability and the use of the corresponding model to generate data driven host-to-target conversions, even as a standalone response spectral model it compares reasonably well with the GMPEs of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1-53, 2005), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195-206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(6):2978-2995, 2010).
One challenging question in ecology is to explain species coexistence in highly diverse temperate grassland plant communities. Within this context, a clear understanding of the consequences of belowground herbivory for the composition and the diversity of plant communities continue to elude ecologists. The existing body of empirical evidence reveals partly contradictory responses ranging from negative to neutral or positive effects of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity.
To reveal possible mechanistic grounds for these discrepancies, we extended an existing simulation model of grassland communities based on plant functional types to include root herbivory. This enabled us to test the effects of different feeding modes that represent different herbivore guilds. For each belowground feeding mode, we systematically varied the intensity and frequency of herbivory events for three different levels of soil fertility both in the presence and absence of additional aboveground grazing.
Our modelling approach successfully reproduced various empirically reported diversity responses, merely on the basis of the different feeding modes. Different levels of plant resource availability affected the strength, but not the direction of the belowground herbivory effects. The only exception was the scenario with low resource levels, which promoted neutral (neither positive nor negative) diversity responses for some of the feeding modes. Interestingly, aboveground biomass production was largely unaffected by diversity changes induced by belowground herbivory except in the case of selective feeding modes that were related to specific functional traits.
Our findings provide possible explanations for the broad spectrum of belowground herbivory effects on plant community diversity. Furthermore, the presented theoretical modelling approach provides a suitable conceptual framework to better understand the complex linkage between plant community and belowground herbivory dynamics.
We conducted a PUB (predictions in ungauged basins) experiment looking at hydrology and crop dynamics in the semi-arid rural Mod catchment in India. The experiment was motivated by the aims (a) to develop a coupled eco-hydrological model capable of analysing land-use strategies concerning crop water need, erosion protection, crop yield and resistivity against droughts and floods, and (b) to assess the feasibility of a strategy for collecting the necessary data in a data-scarce region. Our experiment combines parsimonious data assessment and eco-hydrological model coupling at the lower mesoscale. Linking bottom-up sampling of functionally representative soil classes and top-down regionalization based on spectral properties of the same resulted in a comprehensive distributed data basis for the model. A clear focus on the dominating processes and the catena as the organizing landscape element in the given environmental setting enabled this. We employed the WASA (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments) model for uncalibrated process-based water balance modelling and integrated a crop simulation subroutine based on the SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model to account for crop dynamics, feedbacks and yield estimation. While we found the data assessment strategy and the hydrological model application largely feasible, in terms of its accounting for scale, processes and model concepts, the simulation of feedbacks with crops was problematic. Contributing to the PUB issue, more general conclusions are drawn concerning spatially-distributed structural information and uncalibrated modelling.
[GRAPHICS]
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann
This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of different wood vermicompost application rates on some soil physical and chemical properties as well as on growth parameters of a grass seed mixture (RSM 7.2.1) in tertiary sand contaminated with coal spoil. The experiment was carried out in a greenhouse over a period of 42 days. Soil was mixed with vermicompost at ratios of 0.0, 3.0, 12.5, and 25.0% and sown with the grass seed mixture. Soil samples and plant material were analyzed to determine the effect of different vermicompost application rates on the physical and chemical properties. Results revealed that the physical and chemical properties of the soil improved with increasing application rates of vermicompost. In addition, soil treated with vermicompost showed significant increases in fresh-and dry-matter yields of the grass, as well as enhanced uptake of nutrients by the grass. This indicated that treatment of contaminated soils with vermicompost may be beneficial for reclamation processes by facilitating revegetation of disturbed areas.
Environmental isotope techniques, hydrogeochemical analysis and hydraulic data are employed to identify the main recharge areas of the Mt. Vulture hydrogeological basin, one of the most important aquifers of southern Italy. The groundwaters are derived from seepage of rainwater, flowing from the highest to the lowest elevations through the shallow volcanic weathered host-rock fracture zones. Samples of shallow and deep groundwater were collected at 48 locations with elevations ranging from 352 to 1,100 m above sea level (a.s.l.), for stable isotope (delta(18)O, delta D) and major ion analyses. A complete dataset of available hydraulic information has been integrated with measurements carried out in the present study. Inferred recharge elevations, estimated on the basis of the local vertical isotopic gradient of delta(18)O, range between 550 and 1,200 m a.s.l. The isotope pattern of the Quaternary aquifer reflects the spatial separation of different recharge sources. Knowledge of the local hydrogeological setting was the starting point for a detailed hydrogeochemical and isotopic study to define the recharge and discharge patterns identifying the groundwater flow pathways of the Mt. Vulture basin. The integration of all the data allowed for the tracing of the groundwater flows of the Mt. Vulture basin.
Land use and mineral characteristics affect the ability of surface as well as subsurface soils to sequester organic carbon and their contribution to mitigation of the greenhouse effect. There is less information about the effects of land use and soil properties on the amount and composition of organic matter (OM) for subsurface soils as compared with surface soils. Here we aimed to analyse the long-term (>= 100 years) impact of arable and forest land use and soil mineral characteristics on subsurface soil organic carbon (SOC) contents, as well as on amount and composition of OM sequentially separated by Na pyrophosphate solution (OM(PY)) from subsurface soil samples. Seven soils with different mineral characteristics (Albic and Haplic Luvisol, Colluvic and Haplic Regosol, Haplic and Vertic Cambisol, Haplic Stagnosol) were selected from within Germany. Soil samples were taken from subsurface horizons of forest and adjacent arable sites continuously used for > 100 years. The OM(PY) fractions were analysed for their OC content (OC(PY)) and characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Multiple regression analyses for the arable subsurface soils indicated significant positive relationships between the SOC contents and combined effects of the (i) exchangeable Ca (Ca(ex)) and oxalate-soluble Fe (Fe(ox)) and (ii) the Ca(ex) and Al(ox) contents. For these soils the increase in OC (OC(PY) multiplied by the relative C=O content of OM(PY)) and increasing contents of Ca(ex) indicated that OM(PY) mainly interacts with Ca2+. For the forest subsurface soils (pH < 5), the OC(PY) contents were related to the contents of Na-pyrophosphate-soluble Fe and Al. The long-term arable and forest land use seems to result in different OM(PY)-mineral interactions in subsurface soils. On the basis of this, we hypothesize that a long-term land-use change from arable to forest may lead to a shift from mainly OM(PY)-Ca2+ to mainly OM(PY)-Fe3+ and -Al3+ interactions if the pH of subsurface soils significantly decreases to < 5.