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Deforestation is a prominent anthropogenic cause of erosive overland flow and slope instability, boosting rates of soil erosion and concomitant sediment flux. Conventional methods of gauging or estimating post-logging sediment flux often focus on annual timescales but overlook potentially important process response on shorter intervals immediately following timber harvest. We resolve such dynamics with non-parametric quantile regression forests (QRF) based on high-frequency (3 min) discharge measurements and sediment concentration data sampled every 30-60 min in similar-sized (similar to 0.1 km(2)) forested Chilean catchments that were logged during either the rainy or the dry season. The method of QRF builds on the random forest algorithm, and combines quantile regression with repeated random sub-sampling of both cases and predictors. The algorithm belongs to the family of decision-tree classifiers, which allow quantifying relevant predictors in high-dimensional parameter space. We find that, where no logging occurred, similar to 80% of the total sediment load was transported during extremely variable runoff events during only 5% of the monitoring period. In particular, dry-season logging dampened the relative role of these rare, extreme sediment-transport events by increasing load efficiency during more efficient moderate events. We show that QRFs outperform traditional sediment rating curves (SRCs) in terms of accurately simulating short-term dynamics of sediment flux, and conclude that QRF may reliably support forest management recommendations by providing robust simulations of post-logging response of water and sediment fluxes at high temporal resolution.
TopoToolbox is a MATLAB program for the analysis of digital elevation models (DEMs). With the release of version 2, the software adopts an object-oriented programming (OOP) approach to work with gridded DEMs and derived data such as flow directions and stream networks. The introduction of a novel technique to store flow directions as topologically ordered vectors of indices enables calculation of flow-related attributes such as flow accumulation similar to 20 times faster than conventional algorithms while at the same time reducing memory overhead to 33% of that required by the previous version. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) enable visual exploration and interaction with DEMs and derivatives and provide access to tools targeted at fluvial and tectonic geomorphologists. With its new release, TopoToolbox has become a more memory-efficient and faster tool for basic and advanced digital terrain analysis that can be used as a framework for building hydrological and geomorphological models in MATLAB.
Permafrost-affected soils are among the most obvious ecosystems in which current microbial controls on organic matter decomposition are changing as a result of global warming. Warmer conditions in polygonal tundra will lead to a deepening of the seasonal active layer, provoking changes in microbial processes and possibly resulting in exacerbated carbon degradation under increasing anoxic conditions. To identify current microbial assemblages in carbon rich, water saturated permafrost environments, four polygonal tundra sites were investigated on Herschel Island and the Yukon Coast, Western Canadian Arctic. Ion Torrent sequencing of bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA amplicons revealed the presence of all major microbial soil groups and indicated a local, vertical heterogeneity of the polygonal tundra soil community with increasing depth. Microbial diversity was found to be highest in the surface layers, decreasing towards the permafrost table. Quantitative PCR analysis of functional genes involved in carbon and nitrogen-cycling revealed a high functional potential in the surface layers, decreasing with increasing active layer depth. We observed that soil properties driving microbial diversity and functional potential varied in each study site. These results highlight the small-scale heterogeneity of geomorphologically comparable sites, greatly restricting generalizations about the fate of permafrost-affected environments in a warming Arctic.
Remote sensing analysis is a crucial tool for monitoring the extent of mine waste surfaces and their mineralogy in countries with a long mining history, such as South Africa, where gold and platinum have been produced for over 90 years. These mine waste sites have the potential to contain problematic trace element species (e. g., U, Pb, Cr). In our research, we aim to combine the mapping and monitoring capacities of multispectral and hyperspectral spaceborne sensors. This is done to assess the potential of existing multispectral and hyperspectral spaceborne sensors (OLI and Hyperion) and future missions, such as Sentinel-2 and EnMAP (Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program), for mapping the spatial extent of these mine waste surfaces. For this task we propose a new index, termed the iron feature depth (IFD), derived from Landsat-8 OLI data to map the 900-nm absorption feature as a potential proxy for monitoring the spatial extent of mine waste. OLI was chosen, because it represents the most suitable sensor to map the IFD over large areas in a multi-temporal manner due to its spectral band layout; its (183 km x 170 km) scene size and its revisiting time of 16 days. The IFD is in good agreement with primary and secondary iron-bearing minerals mapped by the Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm (MICA) from EO-1 Hyperion data and illustrates that a combination of hyperspectral data (EnMAP) for mineral identification with multispectral data (Sentinel-2) for repetitive area-wide mapping and monitoring of the IFD as mine waste proxy is a promising application for future spaceborne sensors. A maximum, absolute model error is used to assess the ability of existing and future multispectral sensors to characterize mine waste via its 900-nm iron absorption feature. The following sensor-signal similarity ranking can be established for spectra from gold mining material: EnMAP 100% similarity to the reference, ALI 97.5%, Sentinel-2 97%, OLI and ASTER 95% and ETM+ 91% similarity.
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 +/- 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 +/- 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 +/- 0.21 degrees C or 7.8 +/- 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 degrees C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 degrees C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 degrees C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.
Shallow inland water bodies in Malawi continue to be threatened by various environmental challenges despite their importance to the fisheries industry. Due to the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, disentangling the effect of the two may be a complicated process. The littoral zone of most water bodies is important in environmental reconstructions including pollution and lake level monitoring. This study used a littoral zone, transect-based approach employing multi-proxy palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct recent environmental change (ca. 100 yrs.) in Lake Malombe in the Malawi Rift, East Africa. The results of the study could inform fisheries management in Lake Malombe, which experienced a catastrophic decline in fish stocks. Results support documentary evidence for the complete desiccation of the lake less than 100 years ago. Subsequently, there is evidence for accelerated eutrophication in the recent past. In light of these results, it is concluded that transect sampling approaches rather than relying on single core measurements, and the need for careful consideration of the types of proxy, are significant considerations in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.