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Grain-size distributions offer powerful proxies of past environmental conditions that are related to sediment sorting processes. However, they are often of multimodal character because sediments can get mixed during deposition. To facilitate the use of grain size as palaeoenvironmental proxy, this study aims to distinguish the main detrital processes that contribute to lacustrine sedimentation across the Tibetan Plateau using grain-size end-member modelling analysis. Between three and five robust grain-size end-member subpopulations were distinguished at different sites from similarly-likely end-member model runs. Their main modes were grouped and linked to common sediment transport and depositional processes that can be associated with contemporary Tibetan climate (precipitation patterns and lake ice phenology, gridded wind and shear stress data from the High Asia Reanalysis) and local catchment configurations. The coarse sands and clays with grain-size modes > 250 mu m and < 2 mu m were probably transported by fluvial processes. Aeolian sands (similar to 200 mu m) and coarse local dust (similar to 60 mu m), transported by saltation and in near-surface suspension clouds, are probably related to occasional westerly storms in winter and spring. Coarse regional dust with modes similar to 25 mu m may derive from near-by sources that keep in longer term suspension. The continuous background dust is differentiated into two robust end members (modes: 5-10 and 2-5 mu m) that may represent different sources, wind directions and/or sediment trapping dynamics from long-range, upper-level westerly and episodic northerly wind transport. According to this study grain-size end members of only fluvial origin contribute small amounts to mean Tibetan lake sedimentation (19 +/- 5%), whereas local to regional aeolian transport and background dust deposition dominate the clastic sedimentation in Tibetan lakes (contributions: 42 +/- 14% and 51 +/- 11%). However, fluvial and alluvial reworking of aeolian material from nearby slopes during summer seems to limit end-member interpretation and should be cross-checked with other proxy information. If not considered as a stand-alone proxy, a high transferability to other regions and sediment archives allows helpful reconstructions of past sedimentation history.
Pollen records from large lakes have been used for quantitative palaeoclimate reconstruction, but the influences that lake size (as a result of species-specific variations in pollen dispersal patterns that smaller pollen grains are more easily transported to lake centre) and taphonomy have on these climatic signals have not previously been systematically investigated. We introduce the concept of pollen source area to pollen-based climate calibration using the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau as our study area. We present a pollen data set collected from large lakes in the arid to semi-arid region of central Asia. The influences that lake size and the inferred pollen source areas have on pollen compositions have been investigated through comparisons with pollen assemblages in neighbouring lakes of various sizes. Modern pollen samples collected from different parts of Lake Donggi Cona (in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau) reveal variations in pollen assemblages within this large lake, which are interpreted in terms of the species-specific dispersal and depositional patterns for different types of pollen, and in terms of fluvial input components. We have estimated the pollen source area for each lake individually and used this information to infer modern climate data with which to then develop a modern calibration data set, using both the multivariate regression tree (MRT) and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) approaches. Fossil pollen data from Lake Donggi Cona have been used to reconstruct the climate history of the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The meanannual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed using WA-PLS: extremely dry conditions are found to have dominated the LGM, with annual precipitation of around 100 mm, which is only 32% of present-day precipitation. A gradually increasing trend in moisture conditions during the Late Glacial is terminated by an abrupt reversion to a dry phase that lasts for about 1000 yr and coincides with "Heinrich event 1" in the North Atlantic region. Subsequent periods corresponding to the Bolling/Allerod interstadial, with annual precipitation (P-ann) of about 350 mm, and the Younger Dryas event (about 270 mm P-ann) are followed by moist conditions in the early Holocene, with annual precipitation of up to 400 mm. A drier trend after 9 cal. ka BP is followed by a second wet phase in the middle Holocene, lasting until 4.5 cal. ka BP. Relatively steady conditions with only slight fluctuations then dominate the late Holocene, resulting in the present climatic conditions. The climate changes since the LGM have been primarily driven by deglaciation and fluctuations in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon that resulted from changes in the Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation, as well as from changes in the North Atlantic climate through variations in the circulation patterns and intensity of the westerlies.
This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.
Many mountain belts sustain prolonged snow cover for parts of the year, although enquiries into rates of erosion in these landscapes have focused almost exclusively on the snow-free periods. This raises the question of whether annual snow cover contributes significantly to modulating rates of erosion in high-relief terrain. In this context, the sudden release of snow avalanches is a frequent and potentially relevant process, judging from the physical damage to subalpine forest ecosystems, and the amount of debris contained in avalanche deposits. To quantitatively constrain this visual impression and to expand the sparse literature, we sampled sediment concentrations of n = 28 river-spanning snow-avalanche deposits (snow bridges) in the area around Davos, eastern Swiss Alps, and inferred an orders-of-magnitude variability in specific fine sediment and organic carbon yields (1.8 to 830 t km(-2) yr(-1), and 0.04 to 131 tC km(-2) yr(-1), respectively). A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that, with a minimum of free parameters, such variability is inherent to the geometric scaling used for computing specific yields. Moreover, the widely applied method of linearly extrapolating plot scale sample data may be prone to substantial under- or overestimates. A comparison of our inferred yields with previously published work demonstrates the relevance of wet snow avalanches as prominent agents of soil erosion and transporters of biogeochemical constituents to mountain rivers. Given that a number of snow bridges persisted below the insulating debris cover well into the summer months, snow-avalanche deposits also contribute to regulating in-channel sediment and organic debris storage on seasonal timescales. Finally, our results underline the potential shortcomings of neglecting erosional processes in the winter and spring months in mountainous terrain subjected to prominent snow cover.
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential.
Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.
Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario - global climate model - downscaling, possibly including bias correction hydrological model - flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high.
We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario - global climate model - non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.
Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.
The paper examines the quality of satellite-abased precipitation estimates for the lower Mahanadi River basin (eastern India). The considered data sets known as 3B42 and 3B42-RT (version 7/7A) are routinely produced by the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) from passive microwave and infrared recordings. While the 3B42-RT data are disseminated in real time, the gauge-aadjusted 3B42 data set is published with a delay of some months. The quality of the two products was assessed in a two-astep procedure. First, the correspondence between the remotely sensed precipitation rates and rain gauge data was evaluated at the subbasin scale. Second, the quality of the rainfall estimates was assessed by analysing their performance in the context of rainfall-arunoff simulation.
At sub-abasin level (4000 to 16 000 km(2)) the satellite-abased areal precipitation estimates were found to be moderately correlated with the gauge-abased counterparts (R-2 of 0.64-0.74 for 3B42 and 0.59-0.72 for 3B42-RT). Significant discrepancies between TRMM data and ground observations were identified at high-aintensity levels. The rainfall depth derived from rain gauge data is often not reflected by the TRMM estimates (hit rate < 0.6 for ground-abased intensities > 80 mm day(-1)). At the same time, the remotely sensed rainfall rates frequently exceed the gauge-abased equivalents (false alarm ratios of 0.2-0.6). In addition, the real-atime product 3B42-RT was found to suffer from a spatially consistent negative bias.
Since the regionalisation of rain gauge data is potentially associated with a number of errors, the above results are subject to uncertainty. Hence, a validation against independent information, such as stream flow, was essential. In this case study, the outcome of rainfall-arunoff simulation experiments was consistent with the above-mentioned findings. The best fit between observed and simulated stream flow was obtained if rain gauge data were used as model input (Nash-Sutcliffe index of 0.76-0.88 at gauges not affected by reservoir operation). This compares to the values of 0.71-0.78 for the gauge-djusted TRMM 3B42 data and 0.65-0.77 for the 3B42-RT real-atime data. Whether the 3B42-RT data are useful in the context of operational runoff prediction in spite of the identified problems remains a question for further research.