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This paper examines the attempts of implement-ing components of the concept called Civiliza-tional Hexagon as a pathway to civilizing conflict in the Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-Cold War period. Despite significant decline in the violent conflict and substantial progress socio-economic aspects in the period, most states in the region have been facing challenges in their way to civilize conflict related to absence of inclusive political system, weak state unable to monopolize the use of violence in its territory, and social injustice. On the other hand, states like Botswana and Mauritius managed to civilize conflict through significant improvement in democratic consolidation. Besides their relative success in implementing six elements, these states enabled to integrate traditional institutions with modern state apparatus that helped them to fill the gap created as result of exogenous state formation process and the resulting unfinished nation-building project. Additionally, traditional institutions contributed to managing diversity.
Magmatic continental rifts often constitute the earliest stage of nascent plate boundaries. These extensional tectonic provinces are characterized by ubiquitous normal faulting and volcanic activity; the spatial pattern, the geometry, and the age of these normal faults can help to unravel the spatiotemporal relationships between extensional deformation, magmatism, and long-wavelength crustal deformation of continental rift provinces. This study focuses on the active faulting in the Kenya Rift of the Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) with a focus on the mid-Pleistocene to the present-day.
To examine the early stages of continental break-up in the EARS, this thesis presents a time-averaged minimum extension rate for the inner graben of the Northern Kenya Rift (NKR) for the last 0.5 m.y. Using the TanDEM-X digital elevation model, fault-scarp geometries and associated throws are determined across the volcano-tectonic axis of the inner graben of the NKR. By integrating existing geochronology of faulted units with new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar radioisotopic dates, time-averaged extension rates are calculated. This study reveals that in the inner graben of the NKR, the long-term extension rate based on mid-Pleistocene to recent brittle deformation has minimum values of 1.0 to 1.6 mm yr⁻¹, locally with values up to 2.0 mm yr⁻¹. In light of virtually inactive border faults of the NKR, we show that extension is focused in the region of the active volcano-tectonic axis in the inner graben, thus highlighting the maturing of continental rifting in the NKR.
The phenomenon of focused extension is further investigated with a structural analysis of the youngest volcanic manifestations of the Kenya Rift, their relationship with extensional structures, and their overprint by Holocene faulting. In this context I analyzed the fault characteristics at the ~36 ka old Menengai Caldera and adjacent areas in the Central Kenya Rift using detailed field mapping and a structure-from-motion-based DEM generated from UAV data. In general, the Holocene intra-rift normal faults are dip-slip faults which strike NNE and thus reflect the present-day tectonic stress field; however, inside Menengai caldera persistent magmatic activity and magmatic resurgence overprints these young structures significantly. The caldera is located at the center of an actively extending rift segment and this and the other volcanic edifices of the Kenya Rift may constitute nucleation points of faulting an magmatic extensional processes that ultimately lead into a future stage of magma-assisted rifting.
When viewed at the scale of the entire Kenya Rift the protracted normal faulting in this region compartmentalizes the larger rift depressions, and influences the sedimentology and the hydrology of the intra-rift basins at a scale of less than 100 km. In the present day, most of the fault-bounded sub-basins of the Kenya Rift are hydrologically isolated due to this combination of faulting and magmatic activity that has generated efficient hydrological barriers that maintain these basins as semi-independent geomorphic entities. This isolation, however, was overcome during wetter climatic conditions during the past when the basins were transiently connected. I therefore also investigated the hydrological connectivity of the rift basins during the African Humid Period of the early Holocene, when climate was wetter. With the help of DEM analysis, lake-highstand indicators, radiocarbon dating, and a review of the fossil record, two lake-river-cascades could be identified: one directed southward, and one directed northward. Both cascades connected presently isolated rift basins during the early Holocene via spillovers of lakes and incised river gorges. This hydrological connection fostered the dispersal of aquatic faunas along the rift, and in addition, the water divide between the two river systems represented the only terrestrial dispersal corridor across the Kenya Rift. The reconstruction explains isolated distributions of Nilotic fish species in Kenya Rift lakes and of Guineo-Congolian mammal species in forests east of the Kenya Rift. On longer timescales, repeated episodes of connectivity and isolation must have occurred. To address this problem I participated in research to analyze a sediment drill core from the Koora basin of the Southern Kenya Rift, which provides a paleo-environmental record of the last 1 Ma. Based on this record it can be concluded that at ~400 ka relatively stable environmental conditions were disrupted by tectonic, hydrological, and ecological changes, resulting in increasingly large and frequent fluctuations in water availability, grassland communities, and woody plant cover. The major environmental shifts reflected in the drill core data coincide with phases where volcano-tectonic activity affected the basin. This thesis therefore shows how protracted extensional tectonic processes and the resulting geomorphologic conditions can affect the hydrology, the paleo-environment and the biodiversity of extensional zones in Kenya and elsewhere.
Heinrich Menu von Minutoli unternahm 1820 eine Reise nach Nordafrika zur Erforschung ägyptischer und griechischer Altertümer. Die Preußische Akademie der Wissenschaften bestimmte die jungen Naturforscher Christian Gottfried Ehrenberg und Wilhelm Hemprich als weitere Teilnehmer.
Während Minutoli bereits ein Jahr nach Beginn der Expedition 1821 nach Europa zurückkehrte, setzten Ehrenberg und Hemprich ihre Forschungen fort. Von Alexandria aus unternahmen sie, zum Teil getrennt, Exkursionen in die libysche Wüste, auf die Sinaihalbinsel, zum Roten Meer, in das Libanongebirge sowie bis in den Sudan und nach Eritrea, wo Hemprich 1825 dem Malariafieber erlag.
Wie von der Akademie der Wissenschaften beauftragt, sammelten Ehrenberg und Hemprich insgesamt 34 000 Tiere, 46 000 Pflanzen und 300 Mineralien. Diese trafen im Laufe der Jahre, verpackt in insgesamt 114 Kisten, in Berlin ein. Die Akademie stellte Mittel für die Auswertung der Sammlungen zur Verfügung. Ehrenbergs Reisebericht blieb aber ebenso Fragment wie das großangelegte Tafelwerk Symbolae physicae.
Background: We assessed the effects of gender, in association with a four-week small-sided games (SSGs) training program, during Ramadan intermitting fasting (RIF) on changes in psychometric and physiological markers in professional male and female basketball players.
Methods: Twenty-four professional basketball players from the first Tunisian (Tunisia) division participated in this study. The players were dichotomized by sex (males [GM = 12]; females [GF = 12]). Both groups completed a 4 weeks SSGs training program with 3 sessions per week. Psychometric (e.g., quality of sleep, fatigue, stress, and delayed onset of muscle soreness [DOMS]) and physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate frequency, blood lactate) were measured during the first week (baseline) and at the end of RIF (post-test).
Results: Post hoc tests showed a significant increase in stress levels in both groups (GM [− 81.11%; p < 0.001, d = 0.33, small]; GF [− 36,53%; p = 0.001, d = 0.25, small]). Concerning physiological parameters, ANCOVA revealed significantly lower heart rates in favor of GM at post-test (1.70%, d = 0.38, small, p = 0.002).
Conclusions: Our results showed that SSGs training at the end of the RIF negatively impacted psychometric parameters of male and female basketball players. It can be concluded that there are sex-mediated effects of training during RIF in basketball players, and this should be considered by researchers and practitioners when programing training during RIF.
The spread of shrubs in Namibian savannas raises questions about the resilience of these ecosystems to global change. This makes it necessary to understand the past dynamics of the vegetation, since there is no consensus on whether shrub encroachment is a new phenomenon, nor on its main drivers. However, a lack of long-term vegetation datasets for the region and the scarcity of suitable palaeoecological archives, makes reconstructing past vegetation and land cover of the savannas a challenge.
To help meet this challenge, this study addresses three main research questions: 1) is pollen analysis a suitable tool to reflect the vegetation change associated with shrub encroachment in savanna environments? 2) Does the current encroached landscape correspond to an alternative stable state of savanna vegetation? 3) To what extent do pollen-based quantitative vegetation reconstructions reflect changes in past land cover?
The research focuses on north-central Namibia, where despite being the region most affected by shrub invasion, particularly since the 21st century, little is known about the dynamics of this phenomenon.
Field-based vegetation data were compared with modern pollen data to assess their correspondence in terms of composition and diversity along precipitation and grazing intensity gradients. In addition, two sediment cores from Lake Otjikoto were analysed to reveal changes in vegetation composition that have occurred in the region over the past 170 years and their possible drivers. For this, a multiproxy approach (fossil pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), biomarkers, compound specific carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ13Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) was applied at high taxonomic and temporal resolution. REVEALS modelling of the fossil pollen record from Lake Otjikoto was run to quantitatively reconstruct past vegetation cover. For this, we first made pollen productivity estimates (PPE) of the most relevant savanna taxa in the region using the extended R-value model and two pollen dispersal options (Gaussian plume model and Lagrangian stochastic model). The REVEALS-based vegetation reconstruction was then validated using remote sensing-based regional vegetation data.
The results show that modern pollen reflects the composition of the vegetation well, but diversity less well. Interestingly, precipitation and grazing explain a significant amount of the compositional change in the pollen and vegetation spectra. The multiproxy record shows that a state change from open Combretum woodland to encroached Terminalia shrubland can occur over a century, and that the transition between states spans around 80 years and is characterized by a unique vegetation composition. This transition is supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management (i.e. broad-scale logging for the mining industry, selective grazing and reduced fire activity associated with intensified farming) and related land-use change. Derived environmental changes (i.e. reduced soil moisture, reduced grass cover, changes in species composition and competitiveness, reduced fire intensity) may have affected the resilience of Combretum open woodlands, making them more susceptible to change to an encroached state by stochastic events such as consecutive years of precipitation and drought, and by high concentrations of pCO2. We assume that the resulting encroached state was further stabilized by feedback mechanisms that favour the establishment and competitiveness of woody vegetation.
The REVEALS-based quantitative estimates of plant taxa indicate the predominance of a semi-open landscape throughout the 20th century and a reduction in grass cover below 50% since the 21st century associated with the spread of encroacher woody taxa. Cover estimates show a close match with regional vegetation data, providing support for the vegetation dynamics inferred from multiproxy analyses. Reasonable PPEs were made for all woody taxa, but not for Poaceae.
In conclusion, pollen analysis is a suitable tool to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics in savannas. However, because pollen cannot identify grasses beyond family level, a multiproxy approach, particularly the use of sedaDNA, is required. I was able to separate stable encroached states from mere woodland phases, and could identify drivers and speculate about related feedbacks. In addition, the REVEALS-based quantitative vegetation reconstruction clearly reflects the magnitude of the changes in the vegetation cover that occurred during the last 130 years, despite the limitations of some PPEs.
This research provides new insights into pollen-vegetation relationships in savannas and highlights the importance of multiproxy approaches when reconstructing past vegetation dynamics in semi-arid environments. It also provides the first time series with sufficient taxonomic resolution to show changes in vegetation composition during shrub encroachment, as well as the first quantitative reconstruction of past land cover in the region. These results help to identify the different stages in savanna dynamics and can be used to calibrate predictive models of vegetation change, which are highly relevant to land management.
Kenya and Uganda are amongst the countries that, for different historical, political, and economic reasons, have embarked on law reform processes as regards to citizenship. In 2009, Uganda made provisions in its laws to allow citizens to have dual citizenship while Kenya’s 2010 constitution similarly introduced it, and at the same time, a general prohibition on dual citizenship was lifted, that is, a ban on state officers, including the President and Deputy President, being dual nationals (Manby, 2018).
Against this background, I analysed the reasons for which these countries that previously held stringent laws and policies against dual citizenship, made a shift in a close time proximity. Given their geo-political roles, location, regional, continental, and international obligations, I conducted a comparative study on the processes, actors, impact, and effect. A specific period of 2000 to 2010 was researched, that is, from when the debates for law reforms emerged, to the processes being implemented, the actors, and the implications.
According to Rubenstein (2000, p. 520), citizenship is observed in terms of “political institutions” that are free to act according to the will of, in the interests of, or with authority over, their citizenry. Institutions are emergent national or international, higher-order factors above the individual spectrum, having the interests and political involvement of their actors without requiring recurring collective mobilisation or imposing intervention to realise these regularities. Transnational institutions are organisations with authority beyond single governments. Given their International obligations, I analysed the role of the UN, AU, and EAC in influencing the citizenship debates and reforms in Kenya and Uganda. Further, non-state actors, such as civil society, were considered.
Veblen, (1899) describes institutions as a set of settled habits of thought common to the generality of men. Institutions function only because the rules involved are rooted in shared habits of thought and behaviour although there is some ambiguity in the definition of the term “habit”. Whereas abstracts and definitions depend on different analytical procedures, institutions restrain some forms of action and facilitate others. Transnational institutions both restrict and aid behaviour. The famous “invisible hand” is nothing else but transnational institutions. Transnational theories, as applied to politics, posit two distinct forms that are of influence over policy and political action (Veblen, 1899). This influence and durability of institutions is “a function of the degree to which they are instilled in political actors at the individual or organisational level, and the extent to which they thereby “tie up” material resources and networks. Against this background, transitional networks with connection to Kenya and Uganda were considered alongside the diaspora from these two countries and their role in the debate and reforms on Dual citizenship.
Sterian (2013, p. 310) notes that Nation states may be vulnerable to institutional influence and this vulnerability can pose a threat to a nation’s autonomy, political legitimacy, and to the democratic public law. Transnational institutions sometimes “collide with the sovereignty of the state when they create new structures for regulating cross-border relationships”. However, Griffin (2003) disagrees that transnational institutional behaviour is premised on the principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence. Transnational institutions have become the main target of the lobby groups and civil society, consequently leading to excessive politicisation. Kenya and Uganda are member states not only of the broader African union but also of the E.A.C which has adopted elements of socio-economic uniformity. Therefore, in the comparative analysis, I examine the role of the East African Community and its partners in the dual citizenship debate on the two countries.
I argue in the analysis that it is not only important to be a citizen within Kenya or Uganda but also important to discover how the issue of dual citizenship is legally interpreted within the borders of each individual nation-state. In light of this discussion, I agree with Mamdani’s definition of the nation-state as a unique form of power introduced in Africa by colonial powers between 1880 and 1940 whose outcomes can be viewed as “debris of a modernist postcolonial project, an attempt to create a centralised modern state as the bearer of Westphalia sovereignty against the background of indirect rule” (Mamdani, 1996, p. xxii). I argue that this project has impacted the citizenship debate through the adopted legal framework of post colonialism, built partly on a class system, ethnic definitions, and political affiliation. I, however, insist that the nation-state should still be a vital custodian of the citizenship debate, not in any way denying the individual the rights to identity and belonging. The question then that arises is which type of nation-state? Mamdani (1996, p. 298) asserts that the core agenda that African states faced at independence was threefold: deracialising civil society; detribalising the native authority; and developing the economy in the context of unequal international relations. Post-independence governments grappled with overcoming the citizen and subject dichotomy through either preserving the customary in the name of “defending tradition against alien encroachment or abolishing it in the name of overcoming backwardness and embracing triumphant modernism”. Kenya and Uganda are among countries that have reformed their citizenship laws attesting to Mamdani’s latter assertion.
Mamdani’s (1996) assertions on how African states continue to deal with the issue of citizenship through either the defence of tradition against subjects or abolishing it in the name of overcoming backwardness and acceptance of triumphant modernism are based on the colonial legal theory and the citizen-subject dichotomy within Africa communities. To further create a wider perspective on legal theory, I argue that those assertions above, point to the historical divergence between the republican model of citizenship, which places emphasis on political agency as envisioned in Rousseau´s social contract, as opposed to the liberal model of citizenship, which stresses the legal status and protection (Pocock, 1995).
I, therefore, compare the contexts of both Kenya and Uganda, the actors, the implications of transnationalism and post-nationalism, on the citizens, the nation-state and the region. I conclude by highlighting the shortcomings in the law reforms that allowed for dual citizenship, further demonstrating an urgent need to address issues, such as child statelessness, gender nationality laws, and the rights of dual citizens. Ethnicity, a weak nation state, and inconsistent citizenship legal reforms are closely linked to the historical factors of both countries. I further indicate the economic and political incentives that influenced the reform.
Keywords: Citizenship, dual citizenship, nation state, republicanism, liberalism, transnationalism, post-nationalism
The High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is an array of five imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes located in the Khomas Highland of Namibia. H.E.S.S. operates in a wide energy range from several tens of GeV to several tens of TeV, reaching the best sensitivity around 1 TeV or at lower energies. However, there are many important topics – such as the search for Galactic PeVatrons, the study of gamma-ray production scenarios for sources (hadronic vs. leptonic), EBL absorption studies – which require good sensitivity at energies above 10 TeV. This work aims at improving the sensitivity of H.E.S.S. and increasing the gamma-ray statistics at high energies. The study investigates an enlargement of the H.E.S.S. effective field of view using events with larger offset angles in the analysis. The greatest challenges in the analysis of large-offset events are a degradation of the reconstruction accuracy and a rise of the background rate as the offset angle increases. The more sophisticated direction reconstruction method (DISP) and improvements to the standard background rejection technique, which by themselves are effective ways to increase the gamma-ray statistics and improve the sensitivity of the analysis, are implemented to overcome the above-mentioned issues. As a result, the angular resolution at the preselection level is improved by 5 - 10% for events at 0.5◦ offset angle and by 20 - 30% for events at 2◦ offset angle. The background rate at large offset angles is decreased nearly to a level typical for offset angles below 2.5◦. Thereby, sensitivity improvements of 10 - 20% are achieved for the proposed analysis compared to the standard analysis at small offset angles. Developed analysis also allows for the usage of events at large offset angles up to approximately 4◦, which was not possible before. This analysis method is applied to the analysis of the Galactic plane data above 10 TeV. As a result, 40 sources out of the 78 presented in the H.E.S.S. Galactic plane survey (HGPS) are detected above 10 TeV. Among them are representatives of all source classes that are present in the HGPS catalogue; namely, binary systems, supernova remnants, pulsar wind nebulae and composite objects. The potential of the improved analysis method is demonstrated by investigating the more than 10 TeV emission for two objects: the region associated with the shell-type SNR HESS J1731−347 and the PWN candidate associated with PSR J0855−4644 that is coincident with Vela Junior (HESS J0852−463).
We developed an orbital tuned age model for the composite Chew Bahir sediment core, obtained from the Chew Bahir basin (CHB), southern Ethiopia. To account for the effects of sedimentation rate changes on the spectral expression of the orbital cycles we developed a new method: the Multi-band Wavelet Age modeling technique (MUBAWA). By using a Continuous Wavelet Transformation, we were able to track frequency shifts that resulted from changing sedimentation rates and thus calculated tuned age model encompassing the last 620 kyrs. The results show a good agreement with the directly dated age model that is available from the dating of volcanic ashes. Then we used the XRF data from CHB and developed a new and robust humid-arid index of east African climate during the last 620 kyrs. To disentangle the relationship of the selected elements we performed a principal component analysis (PCA). In a following step we applied a continuous wavelet transformation on the PC1, using the directly dated age model. The resulting wavelet power spectrum, unlike a normal power spectrum, displays the occurrence of cycles/frequencies in time. The results highlight that the precession cycles are most dominantly expressed under the 400 kyrs eccentricity maximum whereas weakly expressed during eccentricity minimum. This suggests that insolation is a key driver of the climatic variability observed at CHB throughout the last 620 kyrs. In addition, the prevalence of half-precession and obliquity signals was documented. The latter is attributed to the inter-tropical insolation gradient and not interpreted as an imprint of high latitudes forcing on climatic changes in the tropics. In addition, a windowed analysis of variability was used to detect changes in variance over time and showed that strong climate variability occurred especially along the transition from a dominant insolation-controlled humid climate background state towards a predominantly dry and less-insolation controlled climate. The last chapter dealt with non-linear aspects of climate changes represented by the sediments of the CHB. We use recurrence quantification analysis to detect non-linear changes within the potassium concentration of Chew Bahir sediment cores during the last 620 kyrs. The concentration of potassium in the sediments of the lake is subject to geochemical processes related to the evaporation rate of the lake water at the time of deposition. Based on recurrence analysis, two types of variabilities could be distinguished. Type 1 represents slow variations within the precession period bandwidth of 20 kyrs and a tendency towards extreme climatic events whereas type 2 represents fast, highly variable climatic transitions between wet and dry climate states. While type 1 variability is linked to eccentricity maxima, type 2 variability occurs during the 400 kyrs eccentricity minimum. The climate history presented here shows that during high eccentricity a strongly insolation-driven climate system prevailed, whereas during low eccentricity the climate was more strongly affected by short-term variability changes. The short-term environmental changes, reflected in the increased variability might have influenced the evolution, technological advances and expansion of early modern humans who lived in this region. In the Olorgesaille Basin the temporal changes in the occurrence of stone tools, which bracket the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) technologies at between 499–320 kyrs, could potentially correlate to the marked transition from a rather stable climate with less variability to a climate with increased variability in the CHB. We conclude that populations of early anatomically modern humans are more likely to have experienced climatic stress during episodes of low eccentricity, associated with dry and high variability climate conditions, which may have led to technological innovation, such as the transition from the Acheulean to the Middle Stone Age.
Due to global climate change providing food security for an increasing world population is a big challenge. Especially abiotic stressors have a strong negative effect on crop yield. To develop climate-adapted crops a comprehensive understanding of molecular alterations in the response of varying levels of environmental stresses is required. High throughput or ‘omics’ technologies can help to identify key-regulators and pathways of abiotic stress responses. In addition to obtain omics data also tools and statistical analyses need to be designed and evaluated to get reliable biological results.
To address these issues, I have conducted three different studies covering two omics technologies. In the first study, I used transcriptomic data from the two polymorphic Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, namely Col-0 and N14, to evaluate seven computational tools for their ability to map and quantify Illumina single-end reads. Between 92% and 99% of the reads were mapped against the reference sequence. The raw count distributions obtained from the different tools were highly correlated. Performing a differential gene expression analysis between plants exposed to 20 °C or 4°C (cold acclimation), a large pairwise overlap between the mappers was obtained. In the second study, I obtained transcript data from ten different Oryza sativa (rice) cultivars by PacBio Isoform sequencing that can capture full-length transcripts. De novo reference transcriptomes were reconstructed resulting in 38,900 to 54,500 high-quality isoforms per cultivar. Isoforms were collapsed to reduce sequence redundancy and evaluated, e.g. for protein completeness level (BUSCO), transcript length, and number of unique transcripts per gene loci. For the heat and drought tolerant aus cultivar N22, I identified around 650 unique and novel transcripts of which 56 were significantly differentially expressed in developing seeds during combined drought and heat stress. In the last study, I measured and analyzed the changes in metabolite profiles of eight rice cultivars exposed to high night temperature (HNT) stress and grown during the dry and wet season on the field in the Philippines. Season-specific changes in metabolite levels, as well as for agronomic parameters, were identified and metabolic pathways causing a yield decline at HNT conditions suggested.
In conclusion, the comparison of mapper performances can help plant scientists to decide on the right tool for their data. The de novo reconstruction of rice cultivars without a genome sequence provides a targeted, cost-efficient approach to identify novel genes responding to stress conditions for any organism. With the metabolomics approach for HNT stress in rice, I identified stress and season-specific metabolites which might be used as molecular markers for crop improvement in the future.
With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system.
In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github.
In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events.
This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects.
Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements.
In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO$_2$ would be added to the atmosphere.
Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.