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Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.
Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.
While the consequences of cyberbullying victimization have received some attention in the literature, to date, little is known about the multiple types of strains in adolescents’ lives, such as whether cyberbullying victimization and peer rejection increase their vulnerability to depression and anxiety. Even though some research found that adolescents with disabilities show higher risk for cyberbullying victimization, most research has focused on typically developing adolescents. Thus, the present study focused on examining the moderating effect of peer rejection in the relationships between cyberbullying victimization, depression, and anxiety among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. There were 128 participants (89% male; ages ranging from 11–16 years old) with autism spectrum disorder in the sixth, seventh, or eighth grade at 16 middle schools in the United States. Participants completed questionnaires on cyberbullying victimization, peer rejection, depression, and anxiety. Results revealed that cyberbullying victimization was associated positively with peer rejection, anxiety, and depression among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. Further, peer rejection was linked positively with depression and anxiety. Peer rejection moderated the positive relationship between cyberbullying victimization and depression, but not anxiety. Implications for prevention programs and future research are discussed.
The aim of the study was to determine pre-interventional predictors for all-cause mortality in patients after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with a 12-month follow-up. From 10/2013 to 07/2015, 344 patients (80.9 +/- 5.0 years, 44.5% male) with an elective TAVI were consecutively enrolled prospectively in a multicentre cohort study. Prior to the intervention, sociodemographic parameters, echocardiographic data and comorbidities were documented. All patients performed a 6-min walk test, Short Form 12 and a Frailty Index (score consisting of activities of daily living, cognition, nutrition and mobility). Peri-interventional complications were documented. Vital status was assessed over telephone 12 months after TAVI. Predictors for all-cause mortality were identified using a multivariate regression model. At discharge, 333 patients were alive (in-hospital mortality 3.2%; n = 11). During a follow-up of 381.0 +/- 41.9 days, 46 patients (13.8%) died. The non-survivors were older (82.3 +/- 5.0 vs. 80.6 +/- 5.1 years; p = 0.035), had a higher number of comorbidities (2.6 +/- 1.3 vs. 2.1 +/- 1.3; p = 0.026) and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (51.0 +/- 13.6 vs. 54.6 +/- 10.6%; p = 0.048). Additionally, more suffered from diabetes mellitus (60.9 vs. 44.6%; p = 0.040). While the global Frailty Index had no predictive power, its individual components, particularly nutrition (OR 0.83 per 1 pt., CI 0.72-0.95; p = 0.006) and mobility (OR 5.12, CI 1.64-16.01; p = 0.005) had a prognostic impact. Likewise, diabetes mellitus (OR 2.18, CI 1.10-4.32; p = 0.026) and EuroSCORE (OR 1.21 per 5%, CI 1.07-1.36; p = 0.002) were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Besides EuroSCORE and diabetes mellitus, nutrition status and mobility of patients scheduled for TAVI offer prognostic information for 1-year all-cause mortality and should be advocated in the creation of contemporary TAVI risk scores.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with excessive mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Endothelial dysfunction, an early manifestation of CVD, is consistently observed in CKD patients and might be linked to structural defects of the microcirculation including microvascular rarefaction. However, patterns of microvascular rarefaction in CKD and their relation to functional deficits in perfusion and oxygen delivery are currently unknown. In this in-vivo microscopy study of the cremaster muscle microcirculation in BALB/c mice with moderate to severe uremia, we show in two experimental models (adenine feeding or subtotal nephrectomy), that serum urea levels associate incrementally with a distinct microangiopathy. Structural changes were characterized by a heterogeneous pattern of focal microvascular rarefaction with loss of coherent microvascular networks resulting in large avascular areas. Corresponding microvascular dysfunction was evident by significantly diminished blood flow velocity, vascular tone, and oxygen uptake. Microvascular rarefaction in the cremaster muscle paralleled rarefaction in the myocardium, which was accompanied by a decrease in transcription levels not only of the transcriptional regulator HIF-1 alpha, but also of its target genes Angpt-2, TIE-1 and TIE-2, Flkt-1 and MMP-9, indicating an impaired hypoxia-driven angiogenesis. Thus, experimental uremia in mice associates with systemic microvascular disease with rarefaction, tissue hypoxia and dysfunctional angiogenesis.
Impact of self-assessment of return to work on employable discharge from multi-component cardiac rehabilitation. Retrospective unicentric analysis of routine data from cardiac rehabilitation in patients below 65 years of age. Presentation in the "Cardiovascular rehabilitation revisited" high impact abstract session during ESC Congress 2018.
In der Humanmedizin stellt die sogenannte evidenzbasierte Medizin nach Einführung des Begriffs durch D.L. Sackett (Sackett et al. 1996) und der Gründung des Cochrane Instituts (1972) einen wichtigen Standard in der Aufbereitung und dem Transfer von Ergebnissen aus klinischen Studien in den ärztlichen Alltag dar. Ziel ist es, die Vermittlung von Erkenntnissen aus der Wissenschaft für die praktizierenden Ärzte zu erleichtern. Dabei werden Studienergebnisse in Abhängigkeit von der jeweiligen Fragestellung mittels systematischer Literaturrecherche zusammengetragen und hinsichtlich ihrer Evidenz bewertet, um so dem Arzt ein Instrument an die Hand zu geben, mit dem die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse im Hinblick auf eine konkrete klinische Situation abgewogen und angewendet werden können. In den letzten Jahren wurde allerdings vermehrt Kritik laut, dass der Ausgang vieler klinischer Studien in den Übersichtsarbeiten zu positiv dargestellt werde. Ursächlich hierfür ist der Aspekt des Publikationsbias, also die Beobachtung, dass Autoren wissenschaftliche Ergebnisse mit positivem Ausgang bevorzugt publizieren. Überträgt man diesen Sachverhalt auf die präklinische Forschung, die in weiten Teilen auf der Durchführung tierexperimenteller Untersuchungen beruht, so widerspräche das Zurückhalten negativer Ergebnisse in fataler Weise dem 3R-Konzept von Russel und Burch, da dadurch die Gefahr besteht, dass Forschungsvorhaben wiederholt durchgeführt werden.
Background: Retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4), a protein secreted by adipocytes and bound in plasma to transthyretin (TTR), has been associated with obesity, the early phase of insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective of this study was to elucidate the relationship between RBP4, TTR, triglyceride (TG) and type 2 diabetes risk in rural Thailand. Results: RBP4 and TTR levels, as well as homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values, were significantly elevated among subjects with high triglyceride levels (p < 0.01, p < 0.05, p < 0.05, respectively). Triglyceride levels correlated with RBP4 (r = 0.34, p < 0.001) and TTR (r= 0.26, p < 0.01) levels, as well as HOMA-IR values (r= 0.16, p < 0.05). After adjustment for age and gender, the risk of hypertriglyceridemia was 3.7 times greater (95% Cl =1.42 -9.73, p = 0.008) in the highest RBP4 tertile as compared to the lowest tertile. Similarly, the highest TTR and HOMA-IR tertiles had greater risk of hypertriglyceridemia at 3.5 (95% Cl = 1.30-9.20, p = 0.01) and 3.6 (95% CI = 1.33- 9.58, p = 0.01) times higher than the respective lowest tertiles. The correlation between TTR and blood glucose was statistically significant (r 0.18, p < 0.05), but not found this relationship in RBP4. Conclusions: The associations of RBP4 and TTR with hypertriglyceridemia and insulin resistance may have important implications for the risk of heart disease and stroke.
Multi-element determination in human samples is very challenging. Especially in human intervention studies sample volumes are often limited to a few microliters and due to the high number of samples a high-throughput is indispensable. Here, we present a state-of-the-art ICP-MS/MS-based method for the analysis of essential (trace) elements, namely Mg, Ca, Fe, Cu, Zn, Mo, Se and I, as well as food-relevant toxic elements such as As and Cd. The developed method was validated regarding linearity of the calibration curves, method LODs and LOQs, selectivity and trueness as well as precision. The established reliable method was applied to quantify the element serum concentrations of participants of a human intervention study (LeguAN). The participants received isocaloric diets, either rich in plant protein or in animal protein. While the serum concentrations of Mg and Mo increased in participants receiving the plant protein-based diet (above all legumes), the Se concentration in serum decreased. In contrast, the animal protein-based diet, rich in meat and dairy products, resulted in an increased Se concentration in serum.