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The seismicity of the Dead Sea fault zone (DSFZ) during the last two millennia is characterized by a number of damaging and partly devastating earthquakes. These events pose a considerable seismic hazard and seismic risk to Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, and Israel. The occurrence rates for large earthquakes along the DSFZ show indications to temporal changes in the long-term view. The aim of this thesis is to find out, if the occurrence rates of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in different parts of the DSFZ are time-dependent and how. The results are applied to probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in the DSFZ and neighboring areas. Therefore, four time-dependent statistical models (distributions), including Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal and Brownian Passage Time (BPT), are applied beside the exponential distribution (Poisson process) as the classical time-independent model. In order to make sure, if the earthquake occurrence rate follows a unimodal or a multimodal form, a nonparametric bootstrap test of multimodality has been done. A modified method of weighted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is applied to estimate the parameters of the models. For the multimodal cases, an Expectation Maximization (EM) method is used in addition to the MLE method. The selection of the best model is done by two methods; the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) as well as a modified Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters corresponding to the candidate models are calculated, using the bootstrap confidence sets. In this thesis, earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6 along the DSFZ, with a width of about 20 km and inside 29.5° ≤ latitude ≤ 37° are considered as the dataset. The completeness of this dataset is calculated since 300 A.D. The DSFZ has been divided into three sub zones; the southern, the central and the northern sub zone respectively. The central and the northern sub zones have been investigated but not the southern sub zone, because of the lack of sufficient data. The results of the thesis for the central part of the DSFZ show that the earthquake occurrence rate does not significantly pursue a multimodal form. There is also no considerable difference between the time-dependent and time-independent models. Since the time-independent model is easier to interpret, the earthquake occurrence rate in this sub zone has been estimated under the exponential distribution assumption (Poisson process) and will be considered as time-independent with the amount of 9.72 * 10-3 events/year. The northern part of the DSFZ is a special case, where the last earthquake has occurred in 1872 (about 137 years ago). However, the mean recurrence time of Mw ≥ 6 events in this area is about 51 years. Moreover, about 96 percent of the observed earthquake inter-event times (the time between two successive earthquakes) in the dataset regarding to this sub zone are smaller than 137 years. Therefore, it is a zone with an overdue earthquake. The results for this sub zone verify that the earthquake occurrence rate is strongly time-dependent, especially shortly after an earthquake occurrence. A bimodal Weibull-Weibull model has been selected as the best fit for this sub zone. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to the selected model, is a smooth function of time and reveals two clusters within the time after an earthquake occurrence. The first cluster begins right after an earthquake occurrence, lasts about 80 years, and is explicitly time-dependent. The occurrence rate, regarding to this cluster, is considerably lower right after an earthquake occurrence, increases strongly during the following ten years and reaches its maximum about 0.024 events/year, then decreases over the next 70 years to its minimum about 0.0145 events/year. The second cluster begins 80 years after an earthquake occurrence and lasts until the next earthquake occurs. The earthquake occurrence rate, corresponding to this cluster, increases extremely slowly, such as it can be considered as an almost constant rate about 0.015 events/year. The results are applied to calculate the time-dependent PSHA in the northern part of the DSFZ and neighbouring areas.
The Andes are a ~7000 km long N-S trending mountain range developed along the South American western continental margin. Driven by the subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath the continental South American plate, the formation of the northern and central parts of the orogen is a type case for a non-collisional orogeny. In the southern Central Andes (SCA, 29°S-39°S), the oceanic plate changes the subduction angle between 33°S and 35°S from almost horizontal (< 5° dip) in the north to a steeper angle (~30° dip) in the south. This sector of the Andes also displays remarkable along- and across- strike variations of the tectonic deformation patterns. These include a systematic decrease of topographic elevation, of crustal shortening and foreland and orogenic width, as well as an alternation of the foreland deformation style between thick-skinned and thin-skinned recorded along- and across the strike of the subduction zone. Moreover, the SCA are a very seismically active region. The continental plate is characterized by a relatively shallow seismicity (< 30 km depth) which is mainly focussed at the transition from the orogen to the lowland areas of the foreland and the forearc; in contrast, deeper seismicity occurs below the interiors of the northern foreland. Additionally, frequent seismicity is also recorded in the shallow parts of the oceanic plate and in a sector of the flat slab segment between 31°S and 33°S. The observed spatial heterogeneity in tectonic and seismic deformation in the SCA has been attributed to multiple causes, including variations in sediment thickness, the presence of inherited structures and changes in the subduction angle of the oceanic slab. However, there is no study that inquired the relationship between the long-term rheological configuration of the SCA and the spatial deformation patterns. Moreover, the effects of the density and thickness configuration of the continental plate and of variations in the slab dip angle in the rheological state of the lithosphere have been not thoroughly investigated yet. Since rheology depends on composition, pressure and temperature, a detailed characterization of the compositional, structural and thermal fields of the lithosphere is needed. Therefore, by using multiple geophysical approaches and data sources, I constructed the following 3D models of the SCA lithosphere: (i) a seismically-constrained structural and density model that was tested against the gravity field; (ii) a thermal model integrating the conversion of mantle shear-wave velocities to temperature with steady-state conductive calculations in the uppermost lithosphere (< 50 km depth), validated by temperature and heat-flow measurements; and (iii) a rheological model of the long-term lithospheric strength using as input the previously-generated models.
The results of this dissertation indicate that the present-day thermal and rheological fields of the SCA are controlled by different mechanisms at different depths. At shallow depths (< 50 km), the thermomechanical field is modulated by the heterogeneous composition of the continental lithosphere. The overprint of the oceanic slab is detectable where the oceanic plate is shallow (< 85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin, resulting in overall lower temperatures and higher strength compared to regions where the slab is steep and the radiogenic crust is thick. At depths > 50 km, largest temperatures variations occur where the descending slab is detected, which implies that the deep thermal field is mainly affected by the slab dip geometry.
The outcomes of this thesis suggests that long-term thermomechanical state of the lithosphere influences the spatial distribution of seismic deformation. Most of the seismicity within the continental plate occurs above the modelled transition from brittle to ductile conditions. Additionally, there is a spatial correlation between the location of these events and the transition from the mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland to the weak domain of the orogen. In contrast, seismicity within the oceanic plate is also detected where long-term ductile conditions are expected. I therefore analysed the possible influence of additional mechanisms triggering these earthquakes, including the compaction of sediments in the subduction interface and dehydration reactions in the slab. To that aim, I carried out a qualitative analysis of the state of hydration in the mantle using the ratio between compressional- and shear-wave velocity (vp/vs ratio) from a previous seismic tomography. The results from this analysis indicate that the majority of the seismicity spatially correlates with hydrated areas of the slab and overlying continental mantle, with the exception of the cluster within the flat slab segment. In this region, earthquakes are likely triggered by flexural processes where the slab changes from a flat to a steep subduction angle.
First-order variations in the observed tectonic patterns also seem to be influenced by the thermomechanical configuration of the lithosphere. The mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland, due to their resistance to deformation, display smaller amounts of shortening than the relatively weak orogenic domain. In addition, the structural and thermomechanical characteristics modelled in this dissertation confirm previous analyses from geodynamic models pointing to the control of the observed heterogeneities in the orogen and foreland deformation style. These characteristics include the lithospheric and crustal thickness, the presence of weak sediments and the variations in gravitational potential energy.
Specific conditions occur in the cold and strong northern foreland, which is characterized by active seismicity and thick-skinned structures, although the modelled crustal strength exceeds the typical values of externally-applied tectonic stresses. The additional mechanisms that could explain the strain localization in a region that should resist deformation are: (i) increased tectonic forces coming from the steepening of the slab and (ii) enhanced weakening along inherited structures from pre-Andean deformation events. Finally, the thermomechanical conditions of this sector of the foreland could be a key factor influencing the preservation of the flat subduction angle at these latitudes of the SCA.
Subduction zones are regions of intense earthquake activity up to great depth. Sources are located inside the subducting lithosphere and, as a consequence, seismic radiation from subduction zone earthquakes is strongly affected by the interior slab structure. The wave field of these intraslab events observed in the forearc region is profoundly influenced by a seismically slow layer atop the slab surface. This several kilometer thick low-velocity channel (wave guide) causes the entrapment of seismic energy producing strong guided wave phases that appear in P onsets in certain regions of the forearc. Observations at the Chile-Peru subduction zone presented here, as well as observations at several other circum-pacific subduction zones show such signals. Guided wave analysis contributes details of immense value regarding the processes near the slab surface, such as layering of subducted lithosphere, source locations of intraslab seismicity and most of all, range and manner of mineralogical phase transitions. Seismological data stem from intermediate depth events (depth range 70 km - 300 km) recorded in northern Chile near 21 Grad S during the collaborative research initiative " Deformation Processes in the Andes" (SFB 267). A subset of stations - all located within a slab-parallel transect close to 69 Grad W - show low-frequency first arrivals (2 Hz), sometimes followed by a second high-frequency phase. We employ 2-dimensional finite-difference simulations of complete P-SV wave propagation to explore the parameter space of subduction zone wave guides and explain the observations. Key processes underlying the guided wave propagation are studied: Two distinct mechanisms of decoupling of trapped energy from the wave guide are analyzed - a prerequisite to observe the phases at stations located at large distances from the wave guide (up to 100 km). Variations of guided wave effects perpendicular to the strike of the subduction zone are investigated, such as the influence of phases traveling in the fast slab. Further, the merits and limits of guided wave analysis are assessed. Frequency spectra of the guided wave onsets prove to be a robust quantity that captures guided wave characteristics at subduction zones including higher mode excitation. They facilitate the inference of wave guide structure and source positioning: The peak frequency of the guided wave fundamental mode is associated with a certain combination of layer width and velocity contrast. The excitation strength of the guided wave fundamental mode and higher modes is associated with source position and orientation relative to the low-velocity layer. The guided wave signals at the Chile-Peru subduction zone are caused by energy that leaks from the subduction zone wave guide. On the one hand, the bend shape of the slab allows for leakage at a depth of 100 km. On the other, equalization of velocities between the wave guide and the host rocks causes further energy leakage at the contact zone between continental and oceanic crust (70 km depth). Guided waves bearing information on deep slab structure can therefore be recorded at specific regions in the forearc. These regions are determined based on slab geometry, and their locations coincide with the observations. A number of strong constraints on the structure of the Chile-Peru slab are inferred: The deep wave guide for intraslab events is formed by a layer of 2 km average width that remains seismically slow (7 percent velocity reduction compared to surrounding mantle). This low-velocity layer at the top of the Chile-Peru slab is imaged from a depth of 100 km down to at least 160 km. Intermediate depth events causing the observed phases are located inside the layer or directly beneath it in the slab mantle. The layer is interpreted as partially eclogized lower oceanic crust persisting to depth beyond the volcanic arc.
The Mw=7.7 tsunamogenic earthquake (TsE) on 17 July 2006, 08:19:28 shock the Indian Ocean at about 15 km depth off-coast Java, Indonesia. It caused a local tsunami with wave heights exceeding 2 m. The death toll reached several hundred. Thousands of people were displaced. By means of standard array methods, we have investigated the propagation and the extent of the rupture front of the causative earthquake. Waveform similarity is expressed by means of the semblance. We back-propagate the semblance for first-arrival phases recorded at broad-band stations within teleseismic distances (30°-95°). Image enhancement is realised by stacking the semblance of 8 arrays within different epicentral and azimuthal directions. From teleseismic observations we find rupturing of a 200 x 100 km wide area in at least 2 phases with propagation from NW to SE and source duration >125 s. The event has some characteristics of a circular rupture followed by unilateral faulting with change in slip rate. Unusually slow rupturing (≈1.5 km/s) is indicated. Fault area and aftershock distribution coincide. Spatial and temporal resolution are frequency dependent. Studies of a Mw6.0 earthquake on 2006/09/21 and one synthetic source show a ≈1° limit in resolution. Retrieved source area, source duration as well as peak values for semblance and beam power increase with the size of the earthquake making possible an automatic detection and classification of large and small earthquakes.
We study the rupture propagation of the 2008/05/12 Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake. We apply array techniques such as semblance vespagram analysis to P waves recorded at seismic broadband station within 30-100° epicentral distance. By combination of multiple large aperture station groups spatial and temporal resolution is enhanced and problems due source directivity and source mechanism are avoided. We find that seismic energy was released for at least 110 s. Propagating unilaterally at sub-shear rupture velocity of about 2.5 km/s in NE direction, the earthquake reaches a lateral extent of more than 300 km. Whereas high semblance during within 70 s from rupture start indicates simple propagation more complex source processes are indicated thereafter by decreases coherency in seismograms. At this stage of the event coherency is low but significantly above noise level. We emphasize that first result of our computations where obtain within 30 minutes after source time by using an atomized algorithm. This procedure has been routinely and globally applied to major earthquakes. Results are made public through internet.
The spatio-temporal evolution of the three recent tsunamogenic earthquakes (TsE) off-coast N-Sumatra (Mw9.3), 28/03/2005 (Mw8.5) off-coast Nias, on 17/07/2006 (Mw7.7) off-coast Java. Start time, duration, and propagation of the rupture are retrieved. All parameters can be obtained rapidly after recording of the first-arrival phases in near-real time processing. We exploit semblance analysis, backpropagation and broad-band seismograms within 30°-95° distance. Image enhancement is reached by stacking the semblance of arrays within different directions. For the three events, the rupture extends over about 1150, 150, and 200km, respectively. The events in 2004, 2005, and 2006 had source durations of at least 480s, 120s, and 180s, respectively. We observe unilateral rupture propagation for all events except for the rupture onset and the Nias event, where there is evidence for a bilateral start of the rupture. Whereas average rupture speed of the events in 2004 and 2005 is in the order of the S-wave speed (≈2.5-3km/s), unusually slow rupturing (≈1.5 km/s) is indicated for the July 2006 event. For the July 2006 event we find rupturing of a 200 x 100 km wide area in at least 2 phases with propagation from NW to SE. The event has some characteristics of a circular rupture followed by unilateral faulting with change in slip rate. Fault area and aftershock distribution coincide. Spatial and temporal resolution are frequency dependent. Studies of a Mw6.0 earthquake on 2006/09/21 and one synthetic source show a ≈1° limit in resolution. Retrieved source area, source duration as well as peak values for semblance and beam power generally increase with the size of the earthquake making possible an automatic detection and classification of large and small earthquakes.
Rapid and robust characterization of large earthquakes in terms of their spatial extent and temporal duration is of high importance for disaster mitigation and early warning applications. Backtracking of seismic P-waves was successfully used by several authors to image the rupture process of the great Sumatra earthquake (26.12.2004) using short period and broadband arrays. We follow here an approach of Walker et al. to backtrack and stack broadband waveforms from global network stations using traveltimes for a global Earth model to obtain the overall spatio-temporal development of the energy radiation of large earthquakes in a quick and robust way. We present results for selected events with well studied source processes (Kokoxili 14.11.2001, Tokachi-Oki 25.09.2003, Nias 28.03.2005). Further, we apply the technique in a semi-real time fashion to broadband data of earthquakes with a broadband magnitude >= 7 (roughly corresponding to Mw 6.5). Processing is based on first automatic detection messages from the GEOFON extended virtual network (GEVN).
Earthquakes form by sudden brittle failure of rock mostly as shear ruptures along a rupture plane. Beside this, mechanisms other than pure shearing have been observed for some earthquakes mainly in volcanic areas. Possible explanations include complex rupture geometries and tensile earthquakes. Tensile earthquakes occur by opening or closure of cracks during rupturing. They are likely to be often connected with fluids that cause pressure changes in the pore space of rocks leading to earthquake triggering. Tensile components have been reported for swarm earthquakes in West Bohemia in 2000. The aim and subject of this work is an assessment and the accurate determination of such tensile components for earthquakes in anisotropic media. Currently used standard techniques for the retrieval of earthquake source mechanisms assume isotropic rock properties. By means of moment tensors, equivalent forces acting at the source are used to explain the radiated wavefield. Conversely, seismic anisotropy, i.e. directional dependence of elastic properties, has been observed in the earth's crust and mantle such as in West Bohemia. In comparison to isotropy, anisotropy causes modifications in wave amplitudes and shear-wave splitting. In this work, effects of seismic anisotropy on true or apparent tensile source components of earthquakes are investigated. In addition, earthquake source parameters are determined considering anisotropy. It is shown that moment tensors and radiation patterns due to shear sources in anisotropic media may be similar to those of tensile sources in isotropic media. In contrast, similarities between tensile earthquakes in anisotropic rocks and shear sources in isotropic media may exist. As a consequence, the interpretation of tensile source components is ambiguous. The effects that are due to anisotropy depend on the orientation of the earthquake source and the degree of anisotropy. The moment of an earthquake is also influenced by anisotropy. The orientation of fault planes can be reliably determined even if isotropy instead of anisotropy is assumed and if the spectra of the compressional waves are used. Greater difficulties may arise when the spectra of split shear waves are additionally included. Retrieved moment tensors show systematic artefacts. Observed tensile source components determined for events in West Bohemia in 1997 can only partly be attributed to the effects of moderate anisotropy. Furthermore, moment tensors determined earlier for earthquakes induced at the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB), Bavaria, were reinterpreted under assumptions of anisotropic rock properties near the borehole. The events can be consistently identified as shear sources, although their moment tensors comprise tensile components that are considered to be apparent. These results emphasise the necessity to consider anisotropy to uniquely determine tensile source parameters. Therefore, a new inversion algorithm has been developed, tested, and successfully applied to 112 earthquakes that occurred during the most recent intense swarm episode in West Bohemia in 2000 at the German-Czech border. Their source mechanisms have been retrieved using isotropic and anisotropic velocity models. Determined local magnitudes are in the range between 1.6 and 3.2. Fault-plane solutions are similar to each other and characterised by left-lateral faulting on steeply dipping, roughly North-South oriented rupture planes. Their dip angles decrease above a depth of about 8.4km. Tensile source components indicating positive volume changes are found for more than 60% of the considered earthquakes. Their size depends on source time and location. They are significant at the beginning of the swarm and at depths below 8.4km but they decrease in importance later in the course of the swarm. Determined principle stress axes include P axes striking Northeast and Taxes striking Southeast. They resemble those found earlier in Central Europe. However, depth-dependence in plunge is observed. Plunge angles of the P axes decrease gradually from 50° towards shallow angles with increasing depth. In contrast, the plunge angles of the T axes change rapidly from about 8° above a depth of 8.4km to 21° below this depth. By this thesis, spatial and temporal variations in tensile source components and stress conditions have been reported for the first time for swarm earthquakes in West Bohemia in 2000. They also persist, when anisotropy is assumed and can be explained by intrusion of fluids into the opened cracks during tensile faulting.
Rapidly uplifting coastlines are frequently associated with convergent tectonic boundaries, like subduction zones, which are repeatedly breached by giant megathrust earthquakes. The coastal relief along tectonically active realms is shaped by the effect of sea-level variations and heterogeneous patterns of permanent tectonic deformation, which are accumulated through several cycles of megathrust earthquakes. However, the correlation between earthquake deformation patterns and the sustained long-term segmentation of forearcs, particularly in Chile, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, the methods used to estimate permanent deformation from geomorphic markers, like marine terraces, have remained qualitative and are based on unrepeatable methods. This contrasts with the increasing resolution of digital elevation models, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and high-resolution bathymetric surveys.
Throughout this thesis I study permanent deformation in a holistic manner: from the methods to assess deformation rates, to the processes involved in its accumulation. My research focuses particularly on two aspects: Developing methodologies to assess permanent deformation using marine terraces, and comparing permanent deformation with seismic cycle deformation patterns under different spatial scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Two methods are developed to determine deformation rates from wave-built and wave-cut terraces respectively. I selected an archetypal example of a wave-built terrace at Santa Maria Island studying its stratigraphy and recognizing sequences of reoccupation events tied with eleven radiocarbon sample ages (14C ages). I developed a method to link patterns of reoccupation with sea-level proxies by iterating relative sea level curves for a range of uplift rates. I find the best fit between relative sea-level and the stratigraphic patterns for an uplift rate of 1.5 +- 0.3 m/ka.
A Graphical User Interface named TerraceM® was developed in Matlab®. This novel software tool determines shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces under different geomorphic scenarios. To validate the methods, I select test sites in areas of available high-resolution LiDAR topography along the Maule earthquake rupture zone and in California, USA. The software allows determining the 3D location of the shoreline angle, which is a proxy for the estimation of permanent deformation rates. The method is based on linear interpolations to define the paleo platform and cliff on swath profiles. The shoreline angle is then located by intersecting these interpolations. The
accuracy and precision of TerraceM® was tested by comparing its results with previous assessments, and through an experiment with students in a computer lab setting at the University
of Potsdam.
I combined the methods developed to analyze wave-built and wave-cut terraces to assess regional patterns of permanent deformation along the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture. Wave-built terraces are tied using 12 Infra Red Stimulated luminescence ages (IRSL ages) and shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces are estimated from 170 aligned swath profiles. The comparison of coseismic slip, interseismic coupling, and permanent deformation, leads to three areas of high permanent uplift, terrace warping, and sharp fault offsets. These three areas correlate with regions of high slip and low coupling, as well as with the spatial limit of at least eight historical megathrust ruptures (M8-9.5). I propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust, which result in discrete boundaries for the propagation of mega earthquakes.
To explore the application of geomorphic markers and quantitative morphology in offshore areas I performed a local study of patterns of permanent deformation inferred from hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines at the Arauco Bay, at the southern part of the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture zone. A multidisciplinary approach, including morphometry, sedimentology, paleontology, 3D morphoscopy, and a landscape Evolution Model is used to recognize, map, and assess local rates and patterns of permanent deformation in submarine environments. Permanent deformation patterns are then reproduced using elastic models to assess deformation rates of an active submarine splay fault defined as Santa Maria Fault System. The best fit suggests a reverse structure with a slip rate of 3.7 m/ka for the last 30 ka. The register of land level changes during the earthquake cycle at Santa Maria Island suggest that most of the deformation may be accrued through splay fault reactivation during mega earthquakes, like the (2010) Maule event. Considering a recurrence time of 150 to 200 years, as determined from historical and geological observations, slip between 0.3 and 0.7 m per event would be required to account for the 3.7 m/ka millennial slip rate. However, if the SMFS slips only every ~1000 years, representing a few megathrust earthquakes, then a slip of ~3.5 m per event would be required to account for the long- term rate. Such event would be equivalent to a magnitude ~6.7 earthquake capable to generate a local tsunami.
The results of this thesis provide novel and fundamental information regarding the amount of permanent deformation accrued in the crust, and the mechanisms responsible for this accumulation at millennial time-scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Furthermore, the results of this thesis highlight the application of quantitative geomorphology and the use of repeatable methods to determine permanent deformation, improve the accuracy of marine terrace assessments, and estimates of vertical deformation rates in tectonically active coastal areas. This is vital information for adequate coastal-hazard assessments and to anticipate realistic earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
In many procedures of seismic risk mitigation, ground motion simulations are needed to test systems or improve their effectiveness. For example they may be used to estimate the level of ground shaking caused by future earthquakes. Good physical models for ground motion simulation are also thought to be important for hazard assessment, as they could close gaps in the existing datasets. Since the observed ground motion in nature shows a certain variability, part of which cannot be explained by macroscopic parameters such as magnitude or position of an earthquake, it would be desirable that a good physical model is not only able to produce one single seismogram, but also to reveal this natural variability.
In this thesis, I develop a method to model realistic ground motions in a way that is computationally simple to handle, permitting multiple scenario simulations. I focus on two aspects of ground motion modelling. First, I use deterministic wave propagation for the whole frequency range – from static deformation to approximately 10 Hz – but account for source variability by implementing self-similar slip distributions and rough fault interfaces. Second, I scale the source spectrum so that the modelled waveforms represent the correct radiated seismic energy. With this scaling I verify whether the energy magnitude is suitable as an explanatory variable, which characterises the amount of energy radiated at high frequencies – the advantage of the energy magnitude being that it can be deduced from observations, even in real-time.
Applications of the developed method for the 2008 Wenchuan (China) earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake and the 1994 Northridge (California, USA) earthquake show that the fine source discretisations combined with the small scale source variability ensure that high frequencies are satisfactorily introduced, justifying the deterministic wave propagation approach even at high frequencies. I demonstrate that the energy magnitude can be used to calibrate the high-frequency content in ground motion simulations.
Because deterministic wave propagation is applied to the whole frequency range, the simulation method permits the quantification of the variability in ground motion due to parametric uncertainties in the source description. A large number of scenario simulations for an M=6 earthquake show that the roughness of the source as well as the distribution of fault dislocations have a minor effect on the simulated variability by diminishing directivity effects, while hypocenter location and rupture velocity more strongly influence the variability. The uncertainty in energy magnitude, however, leads to the largest differences of ground motion amplitude between different events, resulting in a variability which is larger than the one observed.
For the presented approach, this dissertation shows (i) the verification of the computational correctness of the code, (ii) the ability to reproduce observed ground motions and (iii) the validation of the simulated ground motion variability. Those three steps are essential to evaluate the suitability of the method for means of seismic risk mitigation.