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Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts
(2022)
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted.
We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall.
We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up.
We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.
Stochastic resetting, a diffusive process whose amplitude is reset to the origin at random times, is a vividly studied strategy to optimize encounter dynamics, e.g., in chemical reactions. Here we generalize the resetting step by introducing a random resetting amplitude such that the diffusing particle may be only partially reset towards the trajectory origin or even overshoot the origin in a resetting step. We introduce different scenarios for the random-amplitude stochastic resetting process and discuss the resulting dynamics. Direct applications are geophysical layering (stratigraphy) and population dynamics or financial markets, as well as generic search processes.
Comb-like geometric constraints leading to emergence of the time-fractional Schrödinger equation
(2021)
This paper presents an overview over several examples, where the comb-like geometric constraints lead to emergence of the time-fractional Schrodinger equation. Motion of a quantum object on a comb structure is modeled by a suitable modification of the kinetic energy operator, obtained by insertion of the Dirac delta function in the Laplacian. First, we consider motion of a free particle on two- and three-dimensional comb structures, and then we extend the study to the interacting cases. A general form of a nonlocal term, which describes the interactions of the particle with the medium, is included in the Hamiltonian, and later on, the cases of constant and Dirac delta potentials are analyzed. At the end, we discuss the case of non-integer dimensions, considering separately the case of fractal dimension between one and two, and the case of fractal dimension between two and three. All these examples show that even though we are starting with the standard time-dependent Schrodinger equation on a comb, the time-fractional equation for the Green's functions appears, due to these specific geometric constraints.
We present the discovery of a new double-detonation progenitor system consisting of a hot subdwarf B (sdB) binary with a white dwarf companion with a P (orb) = 76.34179(2) minutes orbital period. Spectroscopic observations are consistent with an sdB star during helium core burning residing on the extreme horizontal branch. Chimera light curves are dominated by ellipsoidal deformation of the sdB star and a weak eclipse of the companion white dwarf. Combining spectroscopic and light curve fits, we find a low-mass sdB star, M (sdB) = 0.383 +/- 0.028 M (circle dot) with a massive white dwarf companion, M (WD) = 0.725 +/- 0.026 M (circle dot). From the eclipses we find a blackbody temperature for the white dwarf of 26,800 K resulting in a cooling age of approximate to 25 Myr whereas our MESA model predicts an sdB age of approximate to 170 Myr. We conclude that the sdB formed first through stable mass transfer followed by a common envelope which led to the formation of the white dwarf companion approximate to 25 Myr ago. Using the MESA stellar evolutionary code we find that the sdB star will start mass transfer in approximate to 6 Myr and in approximate to 60 Myr the white dwarf will reach a total mass of 0.92 M (circle dot) with a thick helium layer of 0.17 M (circle dot). This will lead to a detonation that will likely destroy the white dwarf in a peculiar thermonuclear supernova. PTF1 J2238+7430 is only the second confirmed candidate for a double-detonation thermonuclear supernova. Using both systems we estimate that at least approximate to 1% of white dwarf thermonuclear supernovae originate from sdB+WD binaries with thick helium layers, consistent with the small number of observed peculiar thermonuclear explosions.
The study addresses the question, if observed changes in terms of Arctic-midlatitude linkages during winter are driven by Arctic Sea ice decline alone or if the increase of global sea surface temperatures plays an additional role. We compare atmosphere-only model experiments with ECHAM6 to ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. The model sensitivity experiment is implemented as a set of four combinations of sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary conditions. Atmospheric circulation regimes are determined and evaluated in terms of their cyclone and blocking characteristics and changes in frequency during winter. As a prerequisite, ECHAM6 reproduces general features of circulation regimes very well. Tropospheric changes induced by the change of boundary conditions are revealed and further impacts on the large-scale circulation up into the stratosphere are investigated. In early winter, the observed increase of atmospheric blocking in the region between Scandinavia and the Urals are primarily related to the changes in sea surface temperatures. During late winter, we f nd a weakened polar stratospheric vortex in the reanalysis that further impacts the troposphere. In the model sensitivity study a climatologically weakened polar vortex occurs only if sea ice is reduced and sea surface temperatures are increased together. This response is delayed compared to the reanalysis. The tropospheric response during late winter is inconclusive in the model, which is potentially related to the weak and delayed response in the stratosphere. The model experiments do not reproduce the connection between early and late winter as interpreted from the reanalysis. Potentially explaining this mismatch, we identify a discrepancy of ECHAM6 to reproduce the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex through blocking induced upward propagation of planetary waves.
We consider a system of noninteracting particles on a line with initial positions distributed uniformly with density ? on the negative half-line. We consider two different models: (i) Each particle performs independent Brownian motion with stochastic resetting to its initial position with rate r and (ii) each particle performs run -and-tumble motion, and with rate r its position gets reset to its initial value and simultaneously its velocity gets randomized. We study the effects of resetting on the distribution P(Q, t) of the integrated particle current Q up to time t through the origin (from left to right). We study both the annealed and the quenched current distributions and in both cases, we find that resetting induces a stationary limiting distribution of the current at long times. However, we show that the approach to the stationary state of the current distribution in the annealed and the quenched cases are drastically different for both models. In the annealed case, the whole distribution P-an(Q, t) approaches its stationary limit uniformly for all Q. In contrast, the quenched distribution P-qu(Q, t) attains its stationary form for Q < Q(crit)(t), while it remains time dependent for Q > Q(crit)(t). We show that Q(crit)(t) increases linearly with t for large t. On the scale where Q <; Q(crit)(t), we show that P-qu(Q, t) has an unusual large deviation form with a rate function that has a third-order phase transition at the critical point. We have computed the associated rate functions analytically for both models. Using an importance sampling method that allows to probe probabilities as tiny as 10-14000, we were able to compute numerically this nonanalytic rate function for the resetting Brownian dynamics and found excellent agreement with our analytical prediction.
We present a detailed spectroscopic and timing analysis of X-ray observations of the bright pulsar PSR B0656+14. The observations were obtained simultaneously with eROSITA and XMM-Newton during the calibration and performance verification phase of the Spektrum-Roentgen-Gamma mission (SRG). The analysis of the 100 ks deep observation of eROSITA is supported by archival observations of the source, including XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, and NICER. Using XMM-Newton and NICER, we first established an X-ray ephemeris for the time interval 2015 to 2020, which connects all X-ray observations in this period without cycle count alias and phase shifts. The mean eROSITA spectrum clearly reveals an absorption feature originating from the star at 570 eV with a Gaussian sigma of about 70 eV that was tentatively identified in a previous long XMM-Newton observation. A second previously discussed absorption feature occurs at 260-265 eV and is described here as an absorption edge. It could be of atmospheric or of instrumental origin. These absorption features are superposed on various emission components that are phenomenologically described here as the sum of hot (120 eV) and cold (65 eV) blackbody components, both of photospheric origin, and a power law with photon index Gamma = 2 from the magnetosphere. We created energy-dependent light curves and phase-resolved spectra with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The phase-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the Gaussian absorption line at 570 eV is clearly present throughout similar to 60% of the spin cycle, but it is otherwise undetected. Likewise, its parameters were found to be dependent on phase. The visibility of the line strength coincides in phase with the maximum flux of the hot blackbody. If the line originates from the stellar surface, it nevertheless likely originates from a different location than the hot polar cap. We also present three families of model atmospheres: a magnetized atmosphere, a condensed surface, and a mixed model. They were applied to the mean observed spectrum, whose continuum fit the observed data well. The atmosphere model, however, predicts distances that are too short. For the mixed model, the Gaussian absorption may be interpreted as proton cyclotron absorption in a field as high as 10(14) G, which is significantly higher than the field derived from the moderate observed spin-down.
Arctic climate change is marked by intensified warming compared to global trends and a significant reduction in Arctic sea ice which can intricately influence mid-latitude atmospheric circulation through tropo- and stratospheric pathways. Achieving accurate simulations of current and future climate demands a realistic representation of Arctic climate processes in numerical climate models, which remains challenging.
Model deficiencies in replicating observed Arctic climate processes often arise due to inadequacies in representing turbulent boundary layer interactions that determine the interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. Many current climate models rely on parameterizations developed for mid-latitude conditions to handle Arctic turbulent boundary layer processes.
This thesis focuses on modified representation of the Arctic atmospheric processes and understanding their resulting impact on large-scale mid-latitude atmospheric circulation within climate models. The improved turbulence parameterizations, recently developed based on Arctic measurements, were implemented in the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM6. This involved modifying the stability functions over sea ice and ocean for stable stratification and changing the roughness length over sea ice for all stratification conditions. Comprehensive analyses are conducted to assess the impacts of these modifications on ECHAM6's simulations of the Arctic boundary layer, overall atmospheric circulation, and the dynamical pathways between the Arctic and mid-latitudes.
Through a step-wise implementation of the mentioned parameterizations into ECHAM6, a series of sensitivity experiments revealed that the combined impacts of the reduced roughness length and the modified stability functions are non-linear. Nevertheless, it is evident that both modifications consistently lead to a general decrease in the heat transfer coefficient, being in close agreement with the observations.
Additionally, compared to the reference observations, the ECHAM6 model falls short in accurately representing unstable and strongly stable conditions.
The less frequent occurrence of strong stability restricts the influence of the modified stability functions by reducing the affected sample size. However, when focusing solely on the specific instances of a strongly stable atmosphere, the sensible heat flux approaches near-zero values, which is in line with the observations. Models employing commonly used surface turbulence parameterizations were shown to have difficulties replicating the near-zero sensible heat flux in strongly stable stratification.
I also found that these limited changes in surface layer turbulence parameterizations have a statistically significant impact on the temperature and wind patterns across multiple pressure levels, including the stratosphere, in both the Arctic and mid-latitudes. These significant signals vary in strength, extent, and direction depending on the specific month or year, indicating a strong reliance on the background state.
Furthermore, this research investigates how the modified surface turbulence parameterizations may influence the response of both stratospheric and tropospheric circulation to Arctic sea ice loss.
The most suitable parameterizations for accurately representing Arctic boundary layer turbulence were identified from the sensitivity experiments. Subsequently, the model's response to sea ice loss is evaluated through extended ECHAM6 simulations with different prescribed sea ice conditions.
The simulation with adjusted surface turbulence parameterizations better reproduced the observed Arctic tropospheric warming in vertical extent, demonstrating improved alignment with the reanalysis data. Additionally, unlike the control experiments, this simulation successfully reproduced specific circulation patterns linked to the stratospheric pathway for Arctic-mid-latitude linkages. Specifically, an increased occurrence of the Scandinavian-Ural blocking regime (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) in early (late) winter is observed. Overall, it can be inferred that improving turbulence parameterizations at the surface layer can improve the ECHAM6's response to sea ice loss.
Perovskite semiconductors are an attractive option to overcome the limitations of established silicon based photovoltaic (PV) technologies due to their exceptional opto-electronic properties and their successful integration into multijunction cells. However, the performance of single- and multijunction cells is largely limited by significant nonradiative recombination at the perovskite/organic electron transport layer junctions. In this work, the cause of interfacial recombination at the perovskite/C-60 interface is revealed via a combination of photoluminescence, photoelectron spectroscopy, and first-principle numerical simulations. It is found that the most significant contribution to the total C-60-induced recombination loss occurs within the first monolayer of C-60, rather than in the bulk of C-60 or at the perovskite surface. The experiments show that the C-60 molecules act as deep trap states when in direct contact with the perovskite. It is further demonstrated that by reducing the surface coverage of C-60, the radiative efficiency of the bare perovskite layer can be retained. The findings of this work pave the way toward overcoming one of the most critical remaining performance losses in perovskite solar cells.
The bimolecular recombination characteristics of conjugated polymer poly[(4,4'-bis(2-ethylhexyl)dithieno[3,2-b:2',3'-d]silole)-2,6-diyl-alt-(2,5-bis 3-tetradecylthiophen-2-y1 thiazolo 5,4-d thiazole)-2,5diy1] (PDTSiTTz) blended with the fullerene series PC60BM, ICMA, ICBA, and ICTA have been investigated using microsecond and femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy, in conjunction with electroluminescence measurements and ambient photoemission spectroscopy. The non-Langevin polymer PDTSiTTz allows an inspection of intrinsic bimolecular recombination rates uninhibited by diffusion, while the low oscillator strengths of fullerenes allow polymer features to dominate, and we compare our results to those of the well-known polymer Si-PCPDTBT. Using mu s-TAS, we have shown that the trap -limited decay dynamics of the PDTSiTTz polaron becomes progressively slower across the fullerene series, while those of Si-PCPDTBT are invariant. Electroluminescence measurements showed an unusual double peak in pristine PDTSiTTz, attributed to a low energy intragap charge transfer state, likely interchain in nature. Furthermore, while the pristine PDTSiTTz showed a broad, low-intensity density of states, the ICBA and ICTA blends presented a virtually identical DOS to Si-PCPDTBT and its blends. This has been attributed to a shift from a delocalized, interchain highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) in the pristine material to a dithienosilole-centered HOMO in the blends, likely a result of the bulky fullerenes increasing interchain separation. This HOMO localization had a side effect of progressively shifting the polymer HOMO to shallower energies, which was correlated with the observed decrease in bimolecular recombination rate and increased "trap" depth. However, since the density of tail states remained the same, this suggests that the traditional viewpoint of "trapping" being dominated by tail states may not encompass the full picture and that the breadth of the DOS may also have a strong influence on bimolecular recombination.