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The purpose of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) at a construction site is to provide the engineers with a probabilistic estimate of ground-motion level that could be equaled or exceeded at least once in the structure’s design lifetime. A certainty on the predicted ground-motion allows the engineers to confidently optimize structural design and mitigate the risk of extensive damage, or in worst case, a collapse. It is therefore in interest of engineering, insurance, disaster mitigation, and security of society at large, to reduce uncertainties in prediction of design ground-motion levels.
In this study, I am concerned with quantifying and reducing the prediction uncertainty of regression-based Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Essentially, GMPEs are regressed best-fit formulae relating event, path, and site parameters (predictor variables) to observed ground-motion values at the site (prediction variable). GMPEs are characterized by a parametric median (μ) and a non-parametric variance (σ) of prediction. μ captures the known ground-motion physics i.e., scaling with earthquake rupture properties (event), attenuation with distance from source (region/path), and amplification due to local soil conditions (site); while σ quantifies the natural variability of data that eludes μ. In a broad sense, the GMPE prediction uncertainty is cumulative of 1) uncertainty on estimated regression coefficients (uncertainty on μ,σ_μ), and 2) the inherent natural randomness of data (σ). The extent of μ parametrization, the quantity, and quality of ground-motion data used in a regression, govern the size of its prediction uncertainty: σ_μ and σ.
In the first step, I present the impact of μ parametrization on the size of σ_μ and σ. Over-parametrization appears to increase the σ_μ, because of the large number of regression coefficients (in μ) to be estimated with insufficient data. Under-parametrization mitigates σ_μ, but the reduced explanatory strength of μ is reflected in inflated σ. For an optimally parametrized GMPE, a ~10% reduction in σ is attained by discarding the low-quality data from pan-European events with incorrect parametric values (of predictor variables).
In case of regions with scarce ground-motion recordings, without under-parametrization, the only way to mitigate σ_μ is to substitute long-term earthquake data at a location with short-term samples of data across several locations – the Ergodic Assumption. However, the price of ergodic assumption is an increased σ, due to the region-to-region and site-to-site differences in ground-motion physics. σ of an ergodic GMPE developed from generic ergodic dataset is much larger than that of non-ergodic GMPEs developed from region- and site-specific non-ergodic subsets - which were too sparse to produce their specific GMPEs. Fortunately, with the dramatic increase in recorded ground-motion data at several sites across Europe and Middle-East, I could quantify the region- and site-specific differences in ground-motion scaling and upgrade the GMPEs with 1) substantially more accurate region- and site-specific μ for sites in Italy and Turkey, and 2) significantly smaller prediction variance σ. The benefit of such enhancements to GMPEs is quite evident in my comparison of PSHA estimates from ergodic versus region- and site-specific GMPEs; where the differences in predicted design ground-motion levels, at several sites in Europe and Middle-Eastern regions, are as large as ~50%.
Resolving the ergodic assumption with mixed-effects regressions is feasible when the quantified region- and site-specific effects are physically meaningful, and the non-ergodic subsets (regions and sites) are defined a priori through expert knowledge. In absence of expert definitions, I demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques in identifying efficient clusters of site-specific non-ergodic subsets, based on latent similarities in their ground-motion data. Clustered site-specific GMPEs bridge the gap between site-specific and fully ergodic GMPEs, with their partially non-ergodic μ and, σ ~15% smaller than the ergodic variance.
The methodological refinements to GMPE development produced in this study are applicable to new ground-motion datasets, to further enhance certainty of ground-motion prediction and thereby, seismic hazard assessment. Advanced statistical tools show great potential in improving the predictive capabilities of GMPEs, but the fundamental requirement remains: large quantity of high-quality ground-motion data from several sites for an extended time-period.
Im Rahmen des Berliner Projekts „Sprachen-Bilden-Chancen. Innovationen für das Berliner Lehramt“ wurde unter anderem das „Instrument zur sprachbildenden Analyse von Aufgaben im Fach (isaf)“ entwickelt, welches eine Hilfestellung bei der Analyse sprachlicher Anforderungen von (Lern-)Aufgaben darstellt. Ziel des Instruments ist die Förderung der Analyse- und Planungskompetenzen von (angehenden) Lehrkräften. Im Rahmen des Teilprojekts „Sprachliche Heterogenität als Herausforderung für die Lehrerbildung“ des Projekts „PSI (Professionalisierung, Schulpraktische Studien und Inklusion)“ an der Universität Potsdam wurde isaf in der Didaktik der Physik erprobt. Auf Basis der Erprobungsergebnisse sowie der Ergebnisse eines fächerübergreifenden Workshops wurde die hier vorliegende Adaption entwickelt, die um Begriffserläuterungen und Literaturhinweise ergänzt wurde.
Earth's climate varies continuously across space and time, but humankind has witnessed only a small snapshot of its entire history, and instrumentally documented it for a mere 200 years. Our knowledge of past climate changes is therefore almost exclusively based on indirect proxy data, i.e. on indicators which are sensitive to changes in climatic variables and stored in environmental archives. Extracting the data from these archives allows retrieval of the information from earlier times. Obtaining accurate proxy information is a key means to test model predictions of the past climate, and only after such validation can the models be used to reliably forecast future changes in our warming world. The polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are one major climate archive, which record information about local air temperatures by means of the isotopic composition of the water molecules embedded in the ice. However, this temperature proxy is, as any indirect climate data, not a perfect recorder of past climatic variations. Apart from local air temperatures, a multitude of other processes affect the mean and variability of the isotopic data, which hinders their direct interpretation in terms of climate variations. This applies especially to regions with little annual accumulation of snow, such as the Antarctic Plateau. While these areas in principle allow for the extraction of isotope records reaching far back in time, a strong corruption of the temperature signal originally encoded in the isotopic data of the snow is expected. This dissertation uses observational isotope data from Antarctica, focussing especially on the East Antarctic low-accumulation area around the Kohnen Station ice-core drilling site, together with statistical and physical methods, to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal isotope variability across different scales, and thus to enhance the applicability of the proxy for estimating past temperature variability. The presented results lead to a quantitative explanation of the local-scale (1–500 m) spatial variability in the form of a statistical noise model, and reveal the main source of the temporal variability to be the mixture of a climatic seasonal cycle in temperature and the effect of diffusional smoothing acting on temporally uncorrelated noise. These findings put significant limits on the representativity of single isotope records in terms of local air temperature, and impact the interpretation of apparent cyclicalities in the records. Furthermore, to extend the analyses to larger scales, the timescale-dependency of observed Holocene isotope variability is studied. This offers a deeper understanding of the nature of the variations, and is crucial for unravelling the embedded true temperature variability over a wide range of timescales.
Hot localised charge carriers on the Si(111)-7×7 surface are modelled by small charged clusters. Such resonances induce non-local desorption, i.e. more than 10 nm away from the injection site, of chlorobenzene in scanning tunnelling microscope experiments. We used such a cluster model to characterise resonance localisation and vibrational activation for positive and negative resonances recently. In this work, we investigate to which extent the model depends on details of the used cluster or quantum chemistry methods and try to identify the smallest possible cluster suitable for a description of the neutral surface and the ion resonances. Furthermore, a detailed analysis for different chemisorption orientations is performed. While some properties, as estimates of the resonance energy or absolute values for atomic changes, show such a dependency, the main findings are very robust with respect to changes in the model and/or the chemisorption geometry.
In this paper two groups supporting different views on the mechanism of light induced polymer deformation argue about the respective underlying theoretical conceptions, in order to bring this interesting debate to the attention of the scientific community. The group of Prof. Nicolae Hurduc supports the model claiming that the cyclic isomerization of azobenzenes may cause an athermal transition of the glassy azobenzene containing polymer into a fluid state, the so-called photo-fluidization concept. This concept is quite convenient for an intuitive understanding of the deformation process as an anisotropic flow of the polymer material. The group of Prof. Svetlana Santer supports the re-orientational model where the mass-transport of the polymer material accomplished during polymer deformation is stated to be generated by the light-induced re-orientation of the azobenzene side chains and as a consequence of the polymer backbone that in turn results in local mechanical stress, which is enough to irreversibly deform an azobenzene containing material even in the glassy state. For the debate we chose three polymers differing in the glass transition temperature, 32 °C, 87 °C and 95 °C, representing extreme cases of flexible and rigid materials. Polymer film deformation occurring during irradiation with different interference patterns is recorded using a homemade set-up combining an optical part for the generation of interference patterns and an atomic force microscope for acquiring the kinetics of film deformation. We also demonstrated the unique behaviour of azobenzene containing polymeric films to switch the topography in situ and reversibly by changing the irradiation conditions. We discuss the results of reversible deformation of three polymers induced by irradiation with intensity (IIP) and polarization (PIP) interference patterns, and the light of homogeneous intensity in terms of two approaches: the re-orientational and the photo-fluidization concepts. Both agree in that the formation of opto-mechanically induced stresses is a necessary prerequisite for the process of deformation. Using this argument, the deformation process can be characterized either as a flow or mass transport.
Die Klangeigenschaften von Musikinstrumenten werden durch das Zusammenwirken der auf ihnen anregbaren akustischen Schwingungsmoden bestimmt, welche sich wiederum aus der geometrischen Struktur des Resonators in Kombination mit den verwendeten Materialien ergeben. In dieser Arbeit wurde das Schwingungsverhalten von Streichinstrumenten durch den Einsatz minimal-invasiver piezoelektrischer Polymerfilmsensoren untersucht. Die studierten Kopplungsphänomene umfassen den sogenannten Wolfton und Schwingungstilger, die zu dessen Abschwächung verwendet werden, sowie die gegenseitige Beeinflussung von Bogen und Instrument beim Spielvorgang. An Dielektrischen Elastomeraktormembranen wurde dagegen der Einfluss der elastischen Eigenschaften des Membranmaterials auf das akustische und elektromechanische Schwingungsverhalten gezeigt. Die Dissertation gliedert sich in drei Teile, deren wesentliche Ergebnisse im Folgenden zusammengefasst werden.
In Teil I wurde die Funktionsweise eines abstimmbaren Schwingungstilgers zur Dämpfung von Wolftönen auf Streichinstrumenten untersucht. Durch Abstimmung der Resonanzfrequenz des Schwingungstilgers auf die Wolftonfrequenz kann ein Teil der Saitenschwingungen absorbiert werden, so dass die zu starke Anregung der Korpusresonanz vermieden wird, die den Wolfton verursacht. Der Schwingungstilger besteht aus einem „Wolftöter“, einem Massestück, welches auf der Nachlänge der betroffenen Saite (zwischen Steg und Saitenhalter) installiert wird. Hier wurde gezeigt, wie die Resonanzen dieses Schwingungstilgers von der Masse des Wolftöters und von dessen Position auf der Nachlänge abhängen. Aber auch die Geometrie des Wolftöters stellte sich als ausschlaggebend heraus, insbesondere bei einem nicht-rotationssymmetrischen Wolftöter: In diesem Fall entsteht – basierend auf den zu erwartenden nicht-harmonischen Moden einer massebelasteten Saite – eine zusätzliche Mode, die von der Polarisationsrichtung der Saitenschwingung abhängt.
Teil II der Dissertation befasst sich mit Elastomermembranen, die als Basis von Dielektrischen Elastomeraktoren dienen, und die wegen der Membranspannung auch akustische Resonanzen aufweisen. Die Ansprache von Elastomeraktoren hängt unter anderem von der Geschwindigkeit der elektrischen Anregung ab. Die damit zusammenhängenden viskoelastischen Eigenschaften der hier verwendeten Elastomere, Silikon und Acrylat, wurden einerseits in einer frequenzabhängigen dynamisch-mechanischen Analyse des Elastomers erfasst, andererseits auch optisch an vollständigen Aktoren selbst gemessen. Die höhere Viskosität des Acrylats, das bei tieferen Frequenzen höhere Aktuationsdehnungen als das Silikon zeigt, führt zu einer Verminderung der Dehnungen bei höheren Frequenzen, so dass über etwa 40 Hertz mit Silikon größere Aktuationsdehnungen erreicht werden. Mit den untersuchten Aktoren konnte die Gitterkonstante weicher optischer Beugungsgitter kontrolliert werden, die als zusätzlicher Film auf der Membran installiert wurden. Über eine Messung der akustischen Resonanzfrequenz von Elastomermebranen aus Acrylat in 1Abhängigkeit von ihrer Vorstreckung konnte in Verbindung mit einer Modellierung des hyperelastischen Verhaltens des Elastomers (Ogden-Modell) der Schermodul bestimmt werden.
Schließlich wird in Teil III die Untersuchung von Geigen und ihrer Streichanregung mit Hilfe minimal-invasiver piezoelektrischer Polymerfilme geschildert. Es konnten am Bogen und am Steg von Geigen – unter den beiden Füßen des Stegs – jeweils zwei Filmsensoren installiert werden. Mit den beiden Sensoren am Steg wurden Frequenzgänge von Geigen gemessen, welche eine Bestimmung der frequenzabhängigen Stegbewegung erlaubten. Diese Methode ermöglicht damit auch eine umfassende Charakterisierung der Signaturmoden in Bezug auf die Stegdynamik. Die Ergebnisse der komplementären Methoden von Impulsanregung und natürlichem Spielen der Geigen konnten dank der Sensoren verglichen werden. Für die Nutzung der Sensoren am Bogen – insbesondere für eine Messung des Bogendrucks – wurde eine Kalibrierung des Bogen-Sensor-Systems mit Hilfe einer Materialprüfmaschine durchgeführt. Bei einer Messung während des natürlichen Spielens wurde mit den Sensoren am Bogen einerseits die Übertragung der Saitenschwingung auf den Bogen festgestellt. Dabei konnten außerdem longitudinale Bogenhaarresonanzen identifiziert werden, die von der Position der Saite auf dem Bogen abhängen. Aus der Analyse dieses Phänomens konnte die longitudinale Wellengeschwindigkeit der Bogenhaare bestimmt werden, die eine wichtige Größe für die Kopplung zwischen Saite und Bogen ist. Mit Hilfe des Systems aus Sensoren an Bogen und Steg werden auf Grundlage der vorliegenden Arbeit Studien an Streichinstrumenten vorgeschlagen, in denen die Bespielbarkeit der Instrumente zu den jeweils angeregten Steg- und Bogenschwingungen in Beziehung gesetzt werden kann. Damit könnte nicht zuletzt auch die bisher nicht vollständig geklärte Rolle des Bogens für Klang und Bespielbarkeit besser beurteilt werden
Brownian yet non-Gaussian dynamics was observed. These are processes characterised by a linear growth in time of the mean squared displacement, yet the probability density function of the particle displacement is distinctly non-Gaussian, and often of exponential(Laplace) shape. This apparently ubiquitous behaviour observed in very different physical systems has been interpreted as resulting from diffusion in inhomogeneous environments and mathematically represented through a variable, stochastic diffusion coefficient. Indeed different models describing a fluctuating diffusivity have been studied. Here we present a new view of the stochastic basis describing time dependent random diffusivities within a broad spectrum of distributions. Concretely, our study is based on the very generic class of the generalised Gamma distribution. Two models for the particle spreading in such random diffusivity settings are studied. The first belongs to the class of generalised grey Brownian motion while the second follows from the idea of diffusing diffusivities. The two processes exhibit significant characteristics which reproduce experimental results from different biological and physical systems. We promote these two physical models for the description of stochastic particle motion in complex environments.
Recent advances in single particle tracking and supercomputing techniques demonstrate the emergence of normal or anomalous, viscoelastic diffusion in conjunction with non-Gaussian distributions in soft, biological, and active matter systems. We here formulate a stochastic model based on a generalised Langevin equation in which non-Gaussian shapes of the probability density function and normal or anomalous diffusion have a common origin, namely a random parametrisation of the stochastic force. We perform a detailed analysis demonstrating how various types of parameter distributions for the memory kernel result in exponential, power law, or power-log law tails of the memory functions. The studied system is also shown to exhibit a further unusual property: the velocity has a Gaussian one point probability density but non-Gaussian joint distributions. This behaviour is reflected in the relaxation from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian distribution observed for the position variable. We show that our theoretical results are in excellent agreement with stochastic simulations.