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Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams are the major reasons for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and are expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects - initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 - conducted with a range of ice sheet models, the projected 21st century sea level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1:4 to 4:0 cm of sea level equivalent in simulations in which ISMIP6 ocean forcing drives the PICO ocean box model where parameter tuning leads to a comparably low sub-shelf melt sensitivity and in which no surface forcing is applied. This is opposed to a likely range of 9:1 to 35:8 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity, even though both projects use forcing from climate models and melt rates are calibrated with previous oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014 and one starting from a steady state, we show that while differences between the ice sheet configurations in 2015 seem marginal at first sight, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by 5% to 50 %. Hindcasting past ice sheet changes with numerical models would thus provide valuable tools to better constrain projections. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice dynamic response for future sea level projections.
ISMIP6 Antarctica
(2020)
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015-2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between 7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between 6 :1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Recently, Nocera and co-workers (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2018, 140, 13711) demonstrated that triaryl borate Lewis acids facilitate the direct electrochemical reduction of triphenylphosphine oxide (TPPO) to triphenylphosphine (TPP). In the present contribution, we report a quantum chemical study unravelling details of the reaction, which also supports the proposed ECrECi mechanism. Alternative electrochemical routes to TPPO reduction facilitated by other Lewis acids (CH3+), or by photocatalysis at semiconductor surfaces, are also briefly discussed.
Supervised machine learning to assess methane emissions of a dairy building with natural ventilation
(2020)
A reliable quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a basis for the development of adequate mitigation measures. Protocols for emission measurements and data analysis approaches to extrapolate to accurate annual emission values are a substantial prerequisite in this context. We systematically analyzed the benefit of supervised machine learning methods to project methane emissions from a naturally ventilated cattle building with a concrete solid floor and manure scraper located in Northern Germany. We took into account approximately 40 weeks of hourly emission measurements and compared model predictions using eight regression approaches, 27 different sampling scenarios and four measures of model accuracy. Data normalization was applied based on median and quartile range. A correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual features. This indicated only a very weak linear relation between the methane emission and features that are typically used to predict methane emission values of naturally ventilated barns. It further highlighted the added value of including day-time and squared ambient temperature as features. The error of the predicted emission values was in general below 10%. The results from Gaussian processes, ordinary multilinear regression and neural networks were least robust. More robust results were obtained with multilinear regression with regularization, support vector machines and particularly the ensemble methods gradient boosting and random forest. The latter had the added value to be rather insensitive against the normalization procedure. In the case of multilinear regression, also the removal of not significantly linearly related variables (i.e., keeping only the day-time component) led to robust modeling results. We concluded that measurement protocols with 7 days and six measurement periods can be considered sufficient to model methane emissions from the dairy barn with solid floor with manure scraper, particularly when periods are distributed over the year with a preference for transition periods. Features should be normalized according to median and quartile range and must be carefully selected depending on the modeling approach.
In this study we investigate, using all-atom molecular-dynamics computer simulations, the in-plane diffusion of a doxorubicin drug molecule in a thin film of water confined between two silica surfaces. We find that the molecule diffuses along the channel in the manner of a Gaussian diffusion process, but with parameters that vary according to its varying transversal position. Our analysis identifies that four Gaussians, each describing particle motion in a given transversal region, are needed to adequately describe the data. Each of these processes by itself evolves with time at a rate slower than that associated with classical Brownian motion due to a predominance of anticorrelated displacements. Long adsorption events lead to ageing, a property observed when the diffusion is intermittently hindered for periods of time with an average duration which is theoretically infinite. This study presents a simple system in which many interesting features of anomalous diffusion can be explored. It exposes the complexity of diffusion in nanoconfinement and highlights the need to develop new understanding.
The relationship between residual stresses and microstructure associated with a laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) IN718 alloy has been investigated on specimens produced with three different scanning strategies (unidirectional Y-scan, 90 degrees XY-scan, and 67 degrees Rot-scan). Synchrotron X-ray energy-dispersive diffraction (EDXRD) combined with optical profilometry was used to study residual stress (RS) distribution and distortion upon removal of the specimens from the baseplate. The microstructural characterization of both the bulk and the near-surface regions was conducted using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). On the top surfaces of the specimens, the highest RS values are observed in the Y-scan specimen and the lowest in the Rot-scan specimen, while the tendency is inversed on the side lateral surfaces. A considerable amount of RS remains in the specimens after their removal from the baseplate, especially in the Y- and Z-direction (short specimen dimension and building direction (BD), respectively). The distortion measured on the top surface following baseplate thinning and subsequent removal is mainly attributed to the amount of RS released in the build direction. Importantly, it is observed that the additive manufacturing microstructures challenge the use of classic theoretical models for the calculation of diffraction elastic constants (DEC) required for diffraction-based RS analysis. It is found that when the Reuss model is used for the calculation of RS for different crystal planes, as opposed to the conventionally used Kroner model, the results exhibit lower scatter. This is discussed in context of experimental measurements of DEC available in the literature for conventional and additively manufactured Ni-base alloys.
In this study we investigate two distinct loss mechanisms responsible for the rapid dropouts of radiation belt electrons by assimilating data from Van Allen Probes A and B and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13 and 15 into a 3-D diffusion model. In particular, we examine the respective contribution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering and magnetopause shadowing for values of the first adiabatic invariant mu ranging from 300 to 3,000 MeV G(-1). We inspect the innovation vector and perform a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the effect of both processes as a function of various geomagnetic indices, solar wind parameters, and radial distance from the Earth. Our results are in agreement with previous studies that demonstrated the energy dependence of these two mechanisms. We show that EMIC wave scattering tends to dominate loss at lower L shells, and it may amount to between 10%/hr and 30%/hr of the maximum value of phase space density (PSD) over all L shells for fixed first and second adiabatic invariants. On the other hand, magnetopause shadowing is found to deplete electrons across all energies, mostly at higher L shells, resulting in loss from 50%/hr to 70%/hr of the maximum PSD. Nevertheless, during times of enhanced geomagnetic activity, both processes can operate beyond such location and encompass the entire outer radiation belt.
Whereas self-propelled hard discs undergo motility-induced phase separation, self-propelled rods exhibit a variety of nonequilibrium phenomena, including clustering, collective motion, and spatio-temporal chaos. In this work, we present a theoretical framework representing active particles by continuum fields. This concept combines the simplicity of alignment-based models, enabling analytical studies, and realistic models that incorporate the shape of self-propelled objects explicitly. By varying particle shape from circular to ellipsoidal, we show how nonequilibrium stresses acting among self-propelled rods destabilize motility-induced phase separation and facilitate orientational ordering, thereby connecting the realms of scalar and vectorial active matter. Though the interaction potential is strictly apolar, both, polar and nematic order may emerge and even coexist. Accordingly, the symmetry of ordered states is a dynamical property in active matter. The presented framework may represent various systems including bacterial colonies, cytoskeletal extracts, or shaken granular media. Interacting self-propelled particles exhibit phase separation or collective motion depending on particle shape. A unified theory connecting these paradigms represents a major challenge in active matter, which the authors address here by modeling active particles as continuum fields.
Putting order into PM6:Y6 solar cells to reduce the langevin recombination in 400 nm thick junction
(2020)
Increasing the active layer thickness without sacrificing the power conversion efficiency (PCE) is one of the great challenges faced by organic solar cells (OSCs) for commercialization. Recently, PM6:Y6 as an OSC based on a non-fullerene acceptor (NFA) has excited the community because of its PCE reaching as high as 15.9%; however, by increasing the thickness, the PCE drops due to the reduction of the fill factor (FF). This drop is attributed to change in mobility ratio with increasing thickness. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that by regulating the packing and the crystallinity of the donor and the acceptor, through volumetric content of chloronaphthalene (CN) as a solvent additive, one can improve the FF of a thick PM6:Y6 device (approximate to 400 nm) from 58% to 68% (PCE enhances from 12.2% to 14.4%). The data indicate that the origin of this enhancement is the reduction of the structural and energetic disorders in the thick device with 1.5% CN compared with 0.5% CN. This correlates with improved electron and hole mobilities and a 50% suppressed bimolecular recombination, such that the non-Langevin reduction factor is 180 times. This work reveals the role of disorder on the charge extraction and bimolecular recombination of NFA-based OSCs.
Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.
Inorganic perovskites with cesium (Cs+) as the cation have great potential as photovoltaic materials if their phase purity and stability can be addressed. Herein, a series of inorganic perovskites is studied, and it is found that the power conversion efficiency of solar cells with compositions CsPbI1.8Br1.2, CsPbI2.0Br1.0, and CsPbI2.2Br0.8 exhibits a high dependence on the initial annealing step that is found to significantly affect the crystallization and texture behavior of the final perovskite film. At its optimized annealing temperature, CsPbI1.8Br1.2 exhibits a pure orthorhombic phase and only one crystal orientation of the (110) plane. Consequently, this allows for the best efficiency of up to 14.6% and the longest operational lifetime, T-S80, of approximate to 300 h, averaged of over six solar cells, during the maximum power point tracking measurement under continuous light illumination and nitrogen atmosphere. This work provides essential progress on the enhancement of photovoltaic performance and stability of CsPbI3 - xBrx perovskite solar cells.
After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
We report on the detection of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac objects KUV 00311-1938 and PKS 1440-389 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). H.E.S.S. observations were accompanied or preceded by multiwavelength observations with Fermi/LAT, XRT and UVOT onboard the Swift satellite, and ATOM. Based on an extrapolation of the Fermi/LAT spectrum towards the VHE gamma-ray regime, we deduce a 95 per cent confidence level upper limit on the unknown redshift of KUV 00311-1938 of z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 of z < 0.53. When combined with previous spectroscopy results, the redshift of KUV 00311-1938 is constrained to 0.51 <= z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 to 0.14 (sic) z < 0.53.
Monolithic perovskite silicon tandem solar cells can overcome the theoretical efficiency limit of silicon solar cells. This requires an optimum bandgap, high quantum efficiency, and high stability of the perovskite. Herein, a silicon heterojunction bottom cell is combined with a perovskite top cell, with an optimum bandgap of 1.68 eV in planar p-i-n tandem configuration. A methylammonium-free FA(0.75)Cs(0.25)Pb(I0.8Br0.2)(3) perovskite with high Cs content is investigated for improved stability. A 10% molarity increase to 1.1 m of the perovskite precursor solution results in approximate to 75 nm thicker absorber layers and 0.7 mA cm(-2) higher short-circuit current density. With the optimized absorber, tandem devices reach a high fill factor of 80% and up to 25.1% certified efficiency. The unencapsulated tandem device shows an efficiency improvement of 2.3% (absolute) over 5 months, showing the robustness of the absorber against degradation. Moreover, a photoluminescence quantum yield analysis reveals that with adapted charge transport materials and surface passivation, along with improved antireflection measures, the high bandgap perovskite absorber has the potential for 30% tandem efficiency in the near future.
We study populations of globally coupled noisy rotators (oscillators with inertia) allowing a nonequilibrium transition from a desynchronized state to a synchronous one (with the nonvanishing order parameter). The newly developed analytical approaches resulted in solutions describing the synchronous state with constant order parameter for weakly inertial rotators, including the case of zero inertia, when the model is reduced to the Kuramoto model of coupled noise oscillators. These approaches provide also analytical criteria distinguishing supercritical and subcritical transitions to the desynchronized state and indicate the universality of such transitions in rotator ensembles. All the obtained analytical results are confirmed by the numerical ones, both by direct simulations of the large ensembles and by solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. We also propose generalizations of the developed approaches for setups where different rotators parameters (natural frequencies, masses, noise intensities, strengths and phase shifts in coupling) are dispersed.
High spectral resolution transmission spectroscopy is a powerful tool to characterize exoplanet atmospheres. Especially for hot Jupiters, this technique is highly relevant, due to their high-altitude absorption, e.g. from resonant sodium (Na i) and potassium (K i) lines. We resolve the atmospheric K i absorption on HD189733b with the aim to compare the resolved K i line and previously obtained high-resolution Na i-D line observations with synthetic transmission spectra. The line profiles suggest atmospheric processes leading to a line broadening of the order of ∼10 km/s for the Na i-D lines and only a few km/s for the K i line. The investigation hints that either the atmosphere of HD189733b lacks a significant amount of K i or the alkali lines probe different atmospheric regions with different temperature, which could explain the differences we see in the resolved absorption lines.
We study the extremal properties of a stochastic process xt defined by the Langevin equation ẋₜ =√2Dₜ ξₜ, in which ξt is a Gaussian white noise with zero mean and Dₜ is a stochastic‘diffusivity’, defined as a functional of independent Brownian motion Bₜ.We focus on threechoices for the random diffusivity Dₜ: cut-off Brownian motion, Dₜt ∼ Θ(Bₜ), where Θ(x) is the Heaviside step function; geometric Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ exp(−Bₜ); and a superdiffusive process based on squared Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ B²ₜ. For these cases we derive exact expressions for the probability density functions of the maximal positive displacement and of the range of the process xₜ on the time interval ₜ ∈ (0, T).We discuss the asymptotic behaviours of the associated probability density functions, compare these against the behaviour of the corresponding properties of standard Brownian motion with constant diffusivity (Dₜ = D0) and also analyse the typical behaviour of the probability density functions which is observed for a majority of realisations of the stochastic diffusivity process.
We consider the first-passage problem for N identical independent particles that are initially released uniformly in a finite domain Ω and then diffuse toward a reactive area Γ, which can be part of the outer boundary of Ω or a reaction centre in the interior of Ω. For both cases of perfect and partial reactions, we obtain the explicit formulas for the first two moments of the fastest first-passage time (fFPT), i.e., the time when the first out of the N particles reacts with Γ. Moreover, we investigate the full probability density of the fFPT. We discuss a significant role of the initial condition in the scaling of the average fFPT with the particle number N, namely, a much stronger dependence (1/N and 1/N² for partially and perfectly reactive targets, respectively), in contrast to the well known inverse-logarithmic behaviour found when all particles are released from the same fixed point. We combine analytic solutions with scaling arguments and stochastic simulations to rationalise our results, which open new perspectives for studying the relevance of multiple searchers in various situations of molecular reactions, in particular, in living cells.