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Seasonal forecasts are of great interest in many areas. Knowing the amount of precipitation for the upcoming season in regions of water scarcity would facilitate a better water management. If farmers knew the weather conditions of the upcoming summer at sowing time, they could select those cereal species that are best adapted to these conditions. This would allow farmers to improve the harvest and potentially even reduce the amount of pesticides used. However, the undoubted advantages of seasonal forecasts are often opposed by their high degree of uncertainty. The great challenge of generating seasonal forecasts with lead times of several months mainly originates from the chaotic nature of the earth system. In a chaotic system, even tiny differences in the initial conditions can lead to strong deviations in the system’s state in the long run.
In this dissertation we propose an emergent machine learning approach for seasonal forecasting, called the AnlgModel. The AnlgModel combines the analogue method with myopic feature selection and bootstrapping. To benchmark the abilities of the AnlgModel we apply it to seasonal cyclone activity forecasts in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. The AnlgModel demonstrates competitive hindcast skills with two operational forecasts and even outperforms these for long lead times.
In the second chapter we comprehend the forecasting strategy of the Anlg-Model. We thereby analyse the analogue selection process for the 2017 North Atlantic and the 2018 Northwest Pacific seasonal cyclone activity. The analysis shows that those climate indices which are known to influence the seasonal cyclone activity, such as the Niño 3.4 SST, are correctly represented among the selected analogues. Furthermore the selected analogues reflect large-scale climate patterns that were identified by expert reports as being determinative for these particular seasons.
In the third chapter we analyse the features that are used by the AnlgModel for its predictions. We therefore inspect the feature relevance (FR). The FR patterns learned by the AnlgModel show a high congruence with the predictor regions used by the operational forecasts. However, the AnlgModel also discovered new features, such as the SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea during November. This SST pattern exhibits a remarkably high predictive potential for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity.
In the final chapter we investigate potential mechanisms, that link two of these regions with high feature relevance to the Atlantic hurricane activity. We mainly focus on ocean surface transport. The ocean surface flow paths are calculated using Lagrangian particle analysis. We demonstrate that the FR patterns in the region of the Canary islands do not correspond with ocean surface transport. It is instead likely that these FR patterns fingerprint a wind transport of latent heat. The second region to be studied is situated in the Gulf of Guinea. Our analysis shows that the FR patterns seen there do fingerprint ocean surface transport. However, our simulations also show that at least one other mechanism is involved in linking the Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly in November to the hurricane activity of the upcoming season.
In this work the AnlgModel does not only demonstrate its outstanding forecast skills but also shows its capabilities as research tool for detecting oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms.
In this work, binding interactions between biomolecules were analyzed by a technique that is based on electrically controllable DNA nanolevers. The technique was applied to virus-receptor interactions for the first time. As receptors, primarily peptides on DNA nanostructures and antibodies were utilized. The DNA nanostructures were integrated into the measurement technique and enabled the presentation of the peptides in a controllable geometrical order. The number of peptides could be varied to be compatible to the binding sites of the viral surface proteins.
Influenza A virus served as a model system, on which the general measurability was demonstrated. Variations of the receptor peptide, the surface ligand density, the measurement temperature and the virus subtypes showed the sensitivity and applicability of the technology. Additionally, the immobilization of virus particles enabled the measurement of differences in oligovalent binding of DNA-peptide nanostructures to the viral proteins in their native environment.
When the coronavirus pandemic broke out in 2020, work on binding interactions of a peptide from the hACE2 receptor and the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus revealed that oligovalent binding can be quantified in the switchSENSE technology. It could also be shown that small changes in the amino acid sequence of the spike protein resulted in complete loss of binding. Interactions of the peptide and inactivated virus material as well as pseudo virus particles could be measured. Additionally, the switchSENSE technology was utilized to rank six antibodies for their binding affinity towards the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 for the development of a rapid antigen test device.
The technique was furthermore employed to show binding of a non-enveloped virus (adenovirus) and a virus-like particle (norovirus-like particle) to antibodies. Apart from binding interactions, the use of DNA origami levers with a length of around 50 nm enabled the switching of virus material. This proved that the technology is also able to size objects with a hydrodynamic diameter larger than 14 nm.
A theoretical work on diffusion and reaction-limited binding interactions revealed that the technique and the chosen parameters enable the determination of binding rate constants in the reaction-limited regime.
Overall, the applicability of the switchSENSE technique to virus-receptor binding interactions could be demonstrated on multiple examples. While there are challenges that remain, the setup enables the determination of affinities between viruses and receptors in their native environment. Especially the possibilities regarding the quantification of oligo- and multivalent binding interactions could be presented.
This thesis discusses heat and charge transport phenomena in single-crystalline Silicon penetrated by nanometer-sized pores, known as mesoporous Silicon (pSi). Despite the extensive attention given to it as a thermoelectric material of interest, studies on microscopic thermal and electronic transport beyond its macroscopic characterizations are rarely reported. In contrast, this work reports the interplay of both.
PSi samples synthesized by electrochemical anodization display a temperature dependence of specific heat 𝐶𝑝 that deviates from the characteristic 𝑇^3 behaviour (at 𝑇<50𝐾). A thorough analysis reveals that both 3D and 2D Einstein and Debye modes contribute to this specific heat. Additional 2D Einstein modes (~3 𝑚𝑒𝑉) agree reasonably well with the boson peak of SiO2 in pSi pore walls. 2D Debye modes are proposed to account for surface acoustic modes causing a significant deviation from the well-known 𝑇^3 dependence of 𝐶𝑝 at 𝑇<50𝐾.
A novel theoretical model gives insights into the thermal conductivity of pSi in terms of porosity and phonon scattering on the nanoscale. The thermal conductivity analysis utilizes the peculiarities of the pSi phonon dispersion probed by the inelastic neutron scattering experiments. A phonon mean-free path of around 10 𝑛𝑚 extracted from the presented model is proposed to cause the reduced thermal conductivity of pSi by two orders of magnitude compared to p-doped bulk Silicon. Detailed analysis indicates that compound averaging may cause a further 10-50% reduction. The percolation threshold of 65% for thermal conductivity of pSi samples is subsequently determined by employing theoretical effective medium models.
Temperature-dependent electrical conductivity measurements reveal a thermally activated transport process. A detailed analysis of the activation energy 𝐸𝐴𝜎 in the thermally activated transport exhibits a Meyer Neldel compensation rule between different samples that originates in multi-phonon absorption upon carrier transport. Activation energies 𝐸𝐴𝑆 obtained from temperature-dependent thermopower measurements provide further evidence for multi-phonon assisted hopping between localized states as a dominant charge transport mechanism in pSi, as they systematically differ from the determined 𝐸𝐴𝜎 values.
Control over spin and electronic structure of MoS₂ monolayer via interactions with substrates
(2023)
The molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) monolayer is a semiconductor with a direct bandgap while it is a robust and affordable material.
It is a candidate for applications in optoelectronics and field-effect transistors.
MoS2 features a strong spin-orbit coupling which makes its spin structure promising for acquiring the Kane-Mele topological concept with corresponding applications in spintronics and valleytronics.
From the optical point of view, the MoS2 monolayer features two valleys in the regions of K and K' points. These valleys are differentiated by opposite spins and a related valley-selective circular dichroism.
In this study we aim to manipulate the MoS2 monolayer spin structure in the vicinity of the K and K' points to explore the possibility of getting control over the optical and electronic properties.
We focus on two different substrates to demonstrate two distinct routes: a gold substrate to introduce a Rashba effect and a graphene/cobalt substrate to introduce a magnetic proximity effect in MoS2.
The Rashba effect is proportional to the out-of-plane projection of the electric field gradient. Such a strong change of the electric field occurs at the surfaces of a high atomic number materials and effectively influence conduction electrons as an in-plane magnetic field. A molybdenum and a sulfur are relatively light atoms, thus, similar to many other 2D materials, intrinsic Rashba effect in MoS2 monolayer is vanishing small. However, proximity of a high atomic number substrate may enhance Rashba effect in a 2D material as it was demonstrated for graphene previously.
Another way to modify the spin structure is to apply an external magnetic field of high magnitude (several Tesla), and cause a Zeeman splitting, the conduction electrons.
However, a similar effect can be reached via magnetic proximity which allows us to reduce external magnetic fields significantly or even to zero. The graphene on cobalt interface is ferromagnetic and stable for MoS2 monolayer synthesis. Cobalt is not the strongest magnet; therefore, stronger magnets may lead to more significant results.
Nowadays most experimental studies on the dichalcogenides (MoS2 included) are performed on encapsulated heterostructures that are produced by mechanical exfoliation.
While mechanical exfoliation (or scotch-tape method) allows to produce a huge variety of structures, the shape and the size of the samples as well as distance between layers in heterostructures are impossible to control reproducibly.
In our study we used molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) methods to synthesise both MoS2/Au(111) and MoS2/graphene/Co systems.
We chose to use MBE, as it is a scalable and reproducible approach, so later industry may adapt it and take over.
We used graphene/cobalt instead of just a cobalt substrate because direct contact of MoS2\ monolayer and a metallic substrate may lead to photoluminescence (PL) quenching in the metallic substrate. Graphene and hexagonal boron nitride monolayer are considered building blocks of a new generation of electronics also commonly used as encapsulating materials for PL studies. Moreover graphene is proved to be a suitable substrate for the MBE growth of transitional metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs).
In chapter 1,
we start with an introduction to TMDCs. Then we focus on MoS2 monolayer state of the art research in the fields of application scenario; synthesis approaches; electronic, spin, and optical properties; and interactions with magnetic fields and magnetic materials.
We briefly touch the basics of magnetism in solids and move on to discuss various magnetic exchange interactions and magnetic proximity effect.
Then we describe MoS2 optical properties in more detail. We start from basic exciton physics and its manifestation in the MoS2 monolayer. We consider optical selection rules in the MoS2 monolayer and such properties as chirality, spin-valley locking, and coexistence of bright and dark excitons.
Chapter 2 contains an overview of the employed surface science methods: angle-integrated, angle-resolved, and spin-resolved photoemission; low energy electron diffraction and scanning tunneling microscopy.
In chapter 3, we describe MoS2 monolayer synthesis details for two substrates: gold monocrystal with (111) surface and graphene on cobalt thin film with Co(111) surface orientation.
The synthesis descriptions are followed by a detailed characterisation of the obtained structures: fingerprints of MoS2 monolayer formation; MoS2 monolayer symmetry and its relation to the substrate below; characterisation of MoS2 monolayer coverage, domain distribution, sizes and shapes, and moire structures.
In chapter~4, we start our discussion with MoS2/Au(111) electronic and spin structure. Combining density functional theory computations (DFT) and spin-resolved photoemission studies, we demonstrate that the MoS2 monolayer band structure features an in-plane Rashba spin splitting. This confirms the possibility of MoS2 monolayer spin structure manipulation via a substrate.
Then we investigate the influence of a magnetic proximity in the MoS2/graphene/Co system on the MoS2 monolayer spin structure.
We focus our investigation on MoS2 high symmetry points: G and K.
First, using spin-resolved measurements, we confirm that electronic states are spin-split at the G point via a magnetic proximity effect. Second, combining spin-resolved measurements and DFT computations for MoS2 monolayer in the K point region, we demonstrate the appearance of a small in-plane spin polarisation in the valence band top and predict a full in-plane spin polarisation for the conduction band bottom.
We move forward discussing how these findings are related to the MoS2 monolayer optical properties, in particular the possibility of dark exciton observation. Additionally, we speculate on the control of the MoS2 valley energy via magnetic proximity from cobalt.
As graphene is spatially buffering the MoS2 monolayer from the Co thin film, we speculate on the role of graphene in the magnetic proximity transfer by replacing graphene with vacuum and other 2D materials in our computations.
We finish our discussion by investigating the K-doped MoS2/graphene/Co system and the influence of this doping on the electronic and spin structure as well as on the magnetic proximity effect.
In summary, using a scalable MBE approach we synthesised
MoS2/Au(111) and MoS2/graphene/Co systems. We found a Rashba effect taking place in MoS2/Au(111) which proves that the MoS2 monolayer in-plane spin structure can be modified. In MoS2/graphene/Co the in-plane magnetic proximity effect indeed takes place which rises the possibility of fine tuning the MoS2 optical properties via manipulation of the the substrate magnetisation.
The evolution of a galaxy is pivotally governed by its pattern of star formation over a given period of time. The star formation rate at any given time is strongly dependent on the amount of cold gas available in the galaxy. Accretion of pristine gas from the Intergalactic medium (IGM) is thought to be one of the primary sources for star-forming gas. This gas first passes through the virial regions of the galaxy before reaching the Interstellar medium (ISM), the hub of star formation. On the other hand, owing to the evolutionary course of young and massive stars, energetic winds are ejected from the ISM to the virial regions of the galaxy. A bunch of interlinked, complex astrophysical processes, arising from the concurrent presence of both infalling as well as outbound gas, play out over a range of timescales in the halo region or the Circumgalactic medium (CGM) of a galaxy. It would not be incorrect to say that the CGM has a stronghold over the gas reserves of a galaxy and thus, plays a backhand, yet, rather pivotal role in shaping many galactic properties, some of which are also readily observable. Observing the multi-phase CGM (via spectral-line ion measurements), however, remains a non-trivial effort even today. Low particle densities as well as the CGM’s vast spatial extent, coupled with likely deviations from a spherical distribution, marr the possibility of obtaining complete, unbiased, high-quality spectral information tracing the full extent of the gaseous halo. This often incomplete information leads to multiple inferences about the CGM properties that give rise to multiple contradicting models. In this regard, computer simulations offer a neat solution towards testing and, subsequently, falsifying many of these existing CGM models. Thanks to their controlled environments, simulations are able to not only effortlessly transcend several orders of magnitude in time and space, but also get around many of the observational limitations and provide some unique views on many CGM properties. In this thesis, I focus on effectively using different computer simulations to understand the role of CGM in various astrophysical contexts, namely, the effect of Local Group (LG) environment, major merger events and satellite galaxies. In Chapter 2, I discuss the approach used for modeling various phases of the simulated z = 0 LG CGM in Hestia constrained simulations. Each of the three realizations contain a Milky Way (MW)–Andromeda (M31) galaxy pair, along with their corresponding sets of satellite galaxies, all embedded within the larger cosmological context. For characterizing the different temperature–density phases within the CGM, I model five tracer ions with cloudy ionization modeling. The cold and cool–ionized CGM (H i and Si iii respectively) in Hestia is very clumpy and distributed close to the galactic centers, while the warm-hot and hot CGM (O vi, O vii and O viii) is tenuous and volume-filling. On comparing the H i and Si iii column densities for the simulated M31 with observational measurements from Project AMIGA survey and other low-z galaxies, I found that Hestia galaxies produced less gas in the outer CGM, unlike observations. My carefully designed observational bias model subsequently revealed the possibility that some MW gas clouds might be incorrectly associated with the M31 CGM in observations, and hence, may be partly responsible for giving rise to the detected mismatch between simulated data and observations. In Chapter 3, I present results from four zoom–in, major merger, gas–rich simulations and the subsequent role of the gas, originally situated in the CGM, in influencing some of the galactic observables. The progenitor parameters are selected such that the post–merger remnants are MW–mass galaxies. We generally see a very clear gas bridge joining the merging galaxies in case of multiple passage mergers while such a bridge is mostly absent when a direct collision occurs. On the basis of particle–to–galaxy distance computations and tracer particle analysis, I found that about 33–48 percent of the cold gas contributing to the merger–induced star formation in the bridge originated from the CGM regions. In Chapter 4, I used a sample of 234 MW-mass, L* galaxies from the TNG50 cosmological simulations, with an aim of characterizing the impact of their global satellite populations on the extended cold CGM properties of their host L* halos. On the basis of halo mass and number of satellite galaxies (N_sats ), I categorized the sample into low and high mass bins, and subsequently into bottom, inter and top quartiles respectively. After confirming that satellites indeed influence the extended cold halo gas density profiles of the host galaxies, I investigated the effects of different satellite population parameters on the host halo cold CGMs. My analysis showed that there is hardly any cold gas associated with the satellite population of the lowest mass halos. The stellar mass of the most massive satellite (M_*mms ) impacted the cold gas in low mass bin halos the most, while N_sats (followed by M_*mms ) was the most influential factor for the high mass halos. In any case, how easily cold gas was stripped off the most massive satellite did not play much role. The number of massive (Stellar mass, M* > 10^8 M_solar) satellites as well as the M_*mms associated with a galaxy are two of the most crucial parameters determining how much cold gas ultimately finds its way from the satellites to the host halo. Low mass galaxies are found rather lacking on both these fronts unlike their high mass counterparts. This work highlights some aspects of the complex gas physics that constitute the basic essence of a low-z CGM. My analysis proved the importance of a cosmological environment, local surroundings and merger history in defining some key observable properties of a galactic CGM. Furthermore, I found that different satellite properties were responsible for affecting the cold–dense CGM of the low and high-mass parent galaxies. Finally, the LG emerged as an exciting prospect for testing and pinning down several intricate details about the CGM.
My thesis chiefly aims to shed light on the favourable properties of LHP semiconductors from the point of view of their electronic structure.
Currently, various hypotheses are circulating to explain the exceptionally favourable transport properties of LHPs. Seeking an explanation for the low non-radiative recombination rates and long carrier lifetimes is particularly interesting to the halide perovskites research community.
The first part of this work investigates the two main hypotheses that are believed to play a significant role: the existence of a giant Rashba effect and large polarons. The experimental method of ARPES is mainly applied to verify their credibility.
The first hypothesis presumes that a giant Rashba effect restricts the recombination losses of the charge carriers by making the band gap slightly indirect. The Rashba effect is based on a strong SOC that could appear in LHPs thanks to incorporating the heavy element Pb in their structure. Earlier experimental work had pointed out this effect at the VBM of a hybrid LHP as a viable explanation for the long lifetimes of the charge carriers.
My systematic ARPES studies on hybrid MAPbBr3 and spin-resolved ARPES studies on the inorganic CsPbBr3 disprove the presence of any Rashba effect in the VBM of the reported order of magnitude. Therefore, neither the spin texture nor an indirect band gap character at the VBM in the bulk or at the surface can explain the high efficiency of LHP. In case of existence, this effect is in terms of the Rashba parameter at least a factor of a hundred smaller than previously assumed.
The second hypothesis proposes large polaron formation in the electronic structure of LHPs and attributes it to their high defect tolerance and low non-radiative recombination rate. Because the perovskite structure consists of negative and positive ions, polarons of this kind can be expected due to the Coulomb interaction between carriers and the polar lattice at intermediate electron-phonon coupling strength. Their existence is proposed to screen the carriers and defects to avoid recombination and trapping, thus leading to long carrier lifetimes. ARPES results by one group supported this assumption, reporting a 50% effective mass enhancement over the theoretical effective mass for CsPbBr3 in the orthorhombic structure.
The current thesis examines this hypothesis experimentally by photon-energy-dependent ARPES spectra and theoretically by GW band calculations of CsPbBr3 perovskites. The investigation is based on the fact that a polaron contribution in charge transport can become evident by an increase of the effective mass as measured by ARPES over the calculated one without polaron effects. However, my experiments on crystalline CsPbBr3 did not imply a larger effective mass for which one could postulate large polarons. In fact, the effective masses determined from ARPES agree with that of theoretical predictions.
The second part of my thesis thoroughly investigates the possibility of spontaneously magnetizing LHPs by introducing Mn2+ ions. Mn doping was reported to cause ferromagnetism in one of the most common LHPs, MAPbI3, mediated by super-exchange. The current work investigates the magnetic properties of a wide concentration range of Mn-doped MAPbI3 and triple-cation films by XAS, XMCD, and SQUID measurements. Based on the XAS line shape and a sum-rule analysis of the XMCD spectra, a pure Mn2+ configuration has been confirmed. Negative Curie temperatures are extracted from fitting the magnetization with a Curie-Weiss law. However, a remanent magnetization, which would be an indication of the absence of ferromagnetism down to 2K. As far as the double exchange is concerned, the element-specific XAS excludes a sufficient amount of Mn3+ as a prerequisite for this mechanism. All the findings show no evidence of significant double exchange or ferromagnetism in Mn-doped LHPs. The magnetic behavior is paramagnetic rather than ferromagnetic.
In the dissertation's last chapter, orthorhombic features of CsPbBr3 are revealed by ARPES, including an extra VBM at the Γ-point. The VBM of CsPbBr3 shows a temperature-dependent splitting, which decreases by 190 meV between 38K and 300K and tracks a shift of a saddle point at the cubic M-point. It is possible to reproduce the energy shift using an atomic model with a larger unit cell for room temperature, allowing local inversion symmetry breaking. This indicates the importance of electric dipoles for the inorganic LHPs, which may contribute to their high efficiency by breaking inversion symmetry and a Berry-phase effect.
In X-ray computed tomography (XCT), an X-ray beam of intensity I0 is transmitted through an object and its attenuated intensity I is measured when it exits the object. The attenuation of the beam depends on the attenuation coefficients along its path. The attenuation coefficients provide information about the structure and composition of the object and can be determined through mathematical operations that are referred to as reconstruction.
The standard reconstruction algorithms are based on the filtered backprojection (FBP) of the measured data. While these algorithms are fast and relatively simple, they do not always succeed in computing a precise reconstruction, especially from under-sampled data.
Alternatively, an image or volume can be reconstructed by solving a system of linear equations. Typically, the system of equations is too large to be solved but its solution can be approximated by iterative methods, such as the Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique (SIRT) and the Conjugate Gradient Least Squares (CGLS).
This dissertation focuses on the development of a novel iterative algorithm, the Direct Iterative Reconstruction of Computed Tomography Trajectories (DIRECTT). After its reconstruction principle is explained, its performance is assessed for real parallel- and cone-beam CT (including under-sampled) data and compared to that of other established algorithms. Finally, it is demonstrated how the shape of the measured object can be modelled into DIRECTT to achieve even better reconstruction results.
The first part of the thesis studies the properties of fast mode in magneto hydro-dynamic (MHD) turbulence. 1D and 3D numerical simulations are carried out to generate decaying fast mode MHD turbulence. The injection of waves are carried out in a collinear and isotropic fashion to generate fast mode turbulence. The properties of fast mode turbulence are analyzed by studying their energy spectral density, 2D structure functions and energy decay/cascade time. The injection wave vector is varied to study the dependence of the above properties on the injection wave vectors. The 1D energy spectrum obtained for the velocity and magnetic fields has 𝐸 (𝑘) ∝ 𝑘−2. The 2D energy spectrum and 2D structure functions in parallel and perpendicular directions shows that fast mode turbulence generated is isotropic in nature. The cascade/decay rate of fast mode MHD turbulence is proportional to 𝑘−0.5 for different kinds of wave vector injection. Simulations are also carried out in 1D and 3D to compare balanced and imbalanced turbulence. The results obtained shows that while 1D imbalanced turbulence decays faster than 1D balanced turbulence, there is no difference in the decay of 3D balanced and imbalanced turbulence for the current resolution of 512 grid points.
"The second part of the thesis studies cosmic ray (CR) transport in driven MHD turbulence and is strongly dependent on it’s properties. Test particle simulations are carried out to study CR interaction with both total MHD turbulence and decomposed MHD modes. The spatial diffusion coefficients and the pitch angle scattering diffusion coefficients are calculated from the test particle trajectories in turbulence. The results confirms that the fast modes dominate the CR propagation, whereas Alfvén, slow modes are much less efficient with similar pitch angle scattering rates. The cross field transport on large and small scales are investigated next. On large/global scales, normal diffusion is observed and the diffusion coefficient is suppressed by 𝑀𝜁𝐴 compared to the parallel diffusion coefficients, with 𝜁 closer to 4 in Alfvén modes than that in total turbulence as theoretically expected. For the CR transport on scales smaller than the turbulence injection scale 𝐿, both the local and global magnetic reference frames are adopted. Super diffusion is observed on such small scales in all the cases. Particularly, CR transport in Alfvén modes show clear Richardson diffusion in the local reference frame. The diffusion transition smoothly from the Richardson’s one with index 1.5 to normal diffusion as particle’s mean free path decreases from 𝜆∥ ≫ 𝐿 to 𝜆∥ ≪ 𝐿. These results have broad applications to CRs in various astrophysical environments".
International migration has been an increasing phenomenon during the past decades and has involved all the regions of the globe. Together with fertility and mortality rates, net migration rates represent the components that fully define the demographic evolution of the population in a country. Therefore, being able to capture the patterns of international migration flows and to produce projections of how they might change in the future is of relevant importance for demographic studies and for designing policies informed on the potential scenarios. Existing forecasting methods do not account explicitly for the main drivers and processes shaping international migration flows: existing migrant communities at the destination country, termed diasporas, would reduce the costs of migration and facilitate the settling for new migrants, ultimately producing a positive feedback; accounting for the heterogeneity in the type of migration flows, e.g. return and transit Ćows, becomes critical in some specific bilateral migration channels; in low- to middle- income countries economic development could relax poverty constraint and result in an increase of emigration rates.
Economic conditions at both origin and destination are identified as major drivers of international migration. At the same time, climate change impacts have already appeared on natural and human-made systems such as the economic productivity. These economic impacts might have already produced a measurable effect on international migration flows. Studies that provide a quantification of the number of migration moves that might have been affected by climate change are usually specific to small regions, do not provide a mechanistic understanding of the pathway leading from climate change to migration and restrict their focus to the effective induced flows, disregarding the impact that climate change might have had in inhibiting other flows.
Global climate change is likely to produce impacts on the economic development of the countries during the next decades too. Understanding how these impacts might alter future global migration patterns is relevant for preparing future societies and understanding whether the response in migration flows would reduce or increase population's exposure to climate change impacts.
This doctoral research aims at investigating these questions and fill the research gaps outlined above. First, I have built a global bilateral international migration model which accounts explicitly for the diaspora feedback, distinguishes between transit and return flows, and accounts for the observed non-linear effects that link emigration rates to income levels in the country of origin. I have used this migration model within a population dynamic model where I account also for fertility and mortality rates, producing hindcasts and future projections of international migration flows, covering more than 170 countries. Results show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well. Future projections highlight the fact that,depending on the assumptions regarding future evolution of income levels and between-country inequality, migration at the end of the century might approach net zero or be still high in many countries. The model, parsimonious in the explanatory variables that includes, represents a versatile tool for assessing the impacts of different socioeconomic scenarios on international migration.
I consider then a counterfactual past without climate change impacts on the economic productivity. By prescribing these counterfactual economic conditions to the migration model I produce counterfactual migration flows for the past 30 years. I compare the counterfactual migration flows to factual ones, where historical economic conditions are used to produce migration flows. This provides an estimation of the recent international migration flows attributed to climate change impacts. Results show that a counterfactual world without climate change would have seen less migration globally. This effect becomes larger if I consider separately the increase and decrease in migration moves: a Ągure of net change in the migration flows is not representative of the effective magnitude of the climate change impact on migration. Indeed, in my results climate change produces a divergent effect on richer and poorer countries: by slowing down the economic development, climate change might have reduced international mobility from and to countries of the Global South, and increased it from and to richer countries in the Global North.
I apply the same methodology to a scenario of future 3℃ global warming above pre-industrial conditions. I Ąnd that climate change impacts, acting by reorganizing the relative economic attractiveness of destination countries or by affecting the economic growth in the origin, might produce a substantial effect in international migration flows, inhibiting some moves and inducing others.
Overall my results suggest that climate change might have had and might have in the future a significant effect on global patterns of international migration. It also emerges clearly that, for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate change on international migration, we need to go beyond net effects and consider separately induced and inhibited flows.